Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Soapy V]

After this round we will 44 games into our 66 game rebuild with 2 off seasons to go until the bulk of our list changes have been made.
These are the players I don't think will be on our list after the 2018 season.

Senior List:
Armfield (ret)
Simpson (ret)
Rowe (ret)
White (ret)
Thomas (ret)
Buckley (del)
Smedts (del)
Jaksch (del)
Sumner (del)
Palmer (del)
Gorringe (del)
Graham (del)

Rookie list:
Sheehan (del)
JGMc (del)
Alex Silvagni (ret)
Gallucci (del)
Korcheck (del)

Potential Trades & F/A
Gibbs
Casboult

50:50 Depending on a good 2018 season?
Kerridge
Boekhurst
Lamb

That's 12-17 senior list and 5 rookie list positions available. We're going to look a lot different at the start of the 2019 season!





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Don't mid it Lawrence but I think Rowe & White have received contracts. Be interesting to see if Smedts & Palmer are delisted as they have contracts for 2018

 

[cookie monster]

You know when someone like Bolton will have had enough? It's when the players' drive isn't there.

He'll rather have some less skilled but push the group (White, Rowe) than for some that drag the general tone and standards down, by not training at levels required, so the only question for me is; Does Boekhorst strive to get the most out of himself and in turn for the playing group? I don't know the answer, but his last several weeks have shown me a much more determined Boekhorst and nowhere moreso than for the way he marshalled the troops in the VFL. I had not seen that from him, before. Has the penny dropped and has he now become fully invested, or is it too little, too late? We'll see/hear soon enough

I really hope it has. He has something to offer.

Importantly the last few weeks he has proved that he actually has the ability to not completely shit himself when he gets the ball. This is something that I didn't think you could teach this bloke, so he's already taken strides in my eyes

 

[Jimmae]

Did a wrist injury stop him running?

Was out for a month with a hamstring injury last year as well, and he actually lost a lot of weight when his wrist was injured.

Also injured his knee in the final game of 2015.

 

[Soapy V]

Was out for a month with a hamstring injury last year as well, and he actually lost a lot of weight when his wrist was injured.

Also injured his knee in the final game of 2015.

So bottom line is he really hasn't missed much

 

[Jimmae]

So bottom line is he really hasn't missed much

No, I just explained to you that he missed 7 weeks of football mid-season last year, and he probably had a managed (if not technically interrupted) pre-season as well.

But sure, he's a squib, whatever

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Just to finish off on Boekhorst;

I seem to recall having similar debates about Liam Jones only 3 months ago and then even last year when some were calling for him to be cut, even though he had a year of his contract left. Can you believe that?

Not for one minute am I going to suggest that Boekhorst will net a similar result and the one thing I don't is what I care about most; What is Blaine about?
His last 8 weeks have been very good and that started off with 2 * 30+ possession games at VFL level. They were games where he suddenly found voice, where he seemed fully invested in the game and when his skills come out to play.

If there has been some sort of dramatic change in attitude from Blaine, he should stay.
If he's just pulling out a bluff, only to go back to his old ways?............we'll know soon enough

I'm still yet to be convinced that Jones's uptick is a sustainable over the long term, no matter how well he has done this season. I think its still far too early to suggest he will be a mainstay as a defender in the long term as some have suggested is the case. It may well turn out this way and that will be great for the club, but for me its still caution ahead. I think most agree that this move to defence was his last throw of the dice at AFL level. He has thrown everything he had at it and has done good so far, but is it sustainable?

 

[DangerousD]

Casboult goes to a Martin-less cashed up Richmond yielding us band 3 compo .

The Tigs wouldn't be stupid enough to dilute their compo for Matin by signing a FA

 

[Soapy V]

No, I just explained to you that he missed 7 weeks of football mid-season last year, and he probably had a managed (if not technically interrupted) pre-season as well.

But sure, he's a squib, whatever

So in three years he hasn't missed a lot like Pickett Byrne or Sumner or even Murphy.

Not sure where squib came from?

 

[DangerousD]

Would the AFL try and do some creative bending of the rules if Martin left the tigers at $1.5M got Cas at $600,000 and claim the difference is still $900,000 thus them still receiving a band 1 compo?

 

[Gambelic]

The Tigs wouldn't be stupid enough to dilute their compo for Matin by signing a FA

No idea how the FA comp works when one goes out and one comes in. But if it's difference in contract value, assuming NM offer Dusty $1.5m a year and Richmond offer Levi $500k a year, you would still expect band 1 compo based on the difference in contract values.

 

[jd2010]

So in three years he hasn't missed a lot like Pickett Byrne or Sumner or even Murphy.

Not sure where squib came from?

Quantity of time out isn't a good metric to use when looking at a player's ability to reach peak fitness. Being out for a couple of small blocks mid-season can have a huge impact on a players fitness levels. So even though he missed a smaller volume of games missing 2-3 small blocks sends him back 3 times rather than just once which is what happened to guys who are out long-term.

Also not sure Sumner is a good reference point. He has never played a good month of AFL footy in his career

 

[DangerousD]

No idea how the FA comp works when one goes out and one comes in. But if it's difference in contract value, assuming NM offer Dusty $1.5m a year and Richmond offer Levi $500k a year, you would still expect band 1 compo based on the difference in contract values.

I think it will be made up on the run as usual with these things.

 

[HARKER]

I'm still yet to be convinced that Jones's uptick is a sustainable over the long term, no matter how well he has done this season. I think its still far too early to suggest he will be a mainstay as a defender in the long term as some have suggested is the case. It may well turn out this way and that will be great for the club, but for me its still caution ahead. I think most agree that this move to defence was his last throw of the dice at AFL level. He has thrown everything he had at it and has done good so far, but is it sustainable?

I can think of one reason why it may not be.............although I don't really want to think about that.

Jones is working very well within Boltons strategies. Can't see too many reasons why that should change and if anything, he'll be receiving more support once the likes of Marchbank & Macreadie get stronger.

 

[Lawrence Angwin]

Don't mid it Lawrence but I think Rowe & White have received contracts. Be interesting to see if Smedts & Palmer are delisted as they have contracts for 2018

Thanks Soapy, The list are the players I don't expect to be on the list after the 2018 season. I understand some are still contracted for next season.


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[Soapy V]

Thanks Soapy, The list are the players I don't expect to be on the list after the 2018 season. I understand some are still contracted for next season.


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I see the end of next seasons trade period/draft is the end of the major turnover. Then it's about FA, Big fish and constant refurbishment. Be surprised if anyone you've mentioned is on the list in 2019 and if they are they will well have truly imporved and earned their spot. Nothing but positives in what SOS is doing

 

[CFC_#17]

No idea how the FA comp works when one goes out and one comes in. But if it's difference in contract value, assuming NM offer Dusty $1.5m a year and Richmond offer Levi $500k a year, you would still expect band 1 compo based on the difference in contract values.

I still think the compensation should be based on the contract offered by the club losing the player.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I can think of one reason why it may not be.............although I don't really want to think about that.

Jones is working very well within Boltons strategies. Can't see too many reasons why that should change and if anything, he'll be receiving more support once the likes of Marchbank & Macreadie get stronger.

Don't get me wrong mate I hope he continues to play as he has done and improve. Its just a back of my mind caution really. I see it often and in many sports that there is that uptick in form, then its countered with an almost inevitable " return to type " scenario in a lot of cases. As I said, I hope he continues to perform well and improve.

 

[JustaBattler]

Boekhurst has demonstrated two things consistently which gives him a chance to play regular AFL football.

1. He has genuine speed; and
2. He is a pretty good kick at goal.

What he also demonstrates consistently which counts against him is:

1. Poor execution of basic skills under any pressure ; and
2. Inability to win on on ones - contested football.

IF he was a bit bigger without losing any speed he might be better physically equipped to go in a tad harder and maybe have a bit more confidence in congestion....

 

[BlueRenaissance]

Surely you are joking? Murphy is Five contested possessions behind Gibbs, how do you know how he would fare if both Cripps and Curnow were playing, we don't. The fact is, he is out there, competing against who's there.

Some stats for Marc this season. Avg kicks: 16.3, avg handball: 13.4, Clearances: 4.5, Contested possessions: 10.
Murphy if he was at the Pies would be 3rd for contested possessions, 2nd at the Bombers, 3rd at the Cats, 3rd at the Dockers, 2nd at the Suns, 2nd at the Hawks. I could go through all of them to show you he isn't purely outside but you have clearly made up your mind that he will always be outside no matter what his numbers are.

I think this goes a long way to prove my point. As a full time midfielder, you will find Murphy is ranked 2nd, 3rd or 4th at every other club. How many clubs are there? 18? For midfielders alone puts him outside the top 35 players in the comp by rating on those categories you mentioned. And that is just midfielders. Is he a net gain (beat his opponent more than not) week in week out in his position vs his mature midfield peers for contested possessions and clearances? I personally don't think he is anymore for reasons he cant control.

Murphy would rate higher for gaining possessions in clear space and in the back half - link up role. I also think he gives everything he can.

I think as quite a few have pointed out, he does rate high for pressure acts this season; just not tackles when you compare his tackling to his peers.

 

[DangerousD]

I think this goes a long way to prove my point. As a full time midfielder, you will find Murphy is ranked 2nd, 3rd or 4th at every other club. How many clubs are there? 18? For midfielders alone puts him outside the top 35 players in the comp by rating on those categories you mentioned. And that is just midfielders. Is he a net gain (beat his opponent more than not) week in week out in his position vs his mature midfield peers for contested possessions and clearances? I personally don't think he is anymore for reasons he cant control.

Murphy would rate higher for gaining possessions in clear space and in the back half - link up role. I also think he gives everything he can.

I think as quite a few have pointed out, he does rate high for pressure acts this season; just not tackles when you compare his tackling to his peers.

I am solely arguing with you over your assertion that he is purely outside and offers nothing else. A mid who averages 29 disposals, 10 contested possessions and 5 tackles is not just an outside player. Im well aware Marc isn't as good as what he was but in terms of total disposals he ranks 8th overall not sure where you are getting outside the top 35.

 

[DangerousD]

I still think the compensation should be based on the contract offered by the club losing the player.

It is, we are talking about nett loss. The reason why we received no compo for Eddie Betts and what would happen if the Tigs lose Dusty but gain Cas.

 

[Gingerbread man]

Just to finish off on Boekhorst;

I seem to recall having similar debates about Liam Jones only 3 months ago and then even last year when some were calling for him to be cut, even though he had a year of his contract left. Can you believe that?

Not for one minute am I going to suggest that Boekhorst will net a similar result and the one thing I don't is what I care about most; What is Blaine about?
His last 8 weeks have been very good and that started off with 2 * 30+ possession games at VFL level. They were games where he suddenly found voice, where he seemed fully invested in the game and when his skills come out to play.

If there has been some sort of dramatic change in attitude from Blaine, he should stay.
If he's just pulling out a bluff, only to go back to his old ways?............we'll know soon enough.

I'm not sure with boekhorst he did look better last week with our faster ball movement and more aggressive game style.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

I am solely arguing with you over your assertion that he is purely outside and offers nothing else. A mid who averages 29 disposals, 10 contested possessions and 5 tackles is not just an outside player. Im well aware Marc isn't as good as what he was but in terms of total disposals he ranks 8th overall not sure where you are getting outside the top 35.

Everyone can pick what they want to focus on, and interpretation is the key. I've watched games and made up my mind he is outside when we consider him vs A grade midfield players. Alternatively, Vs first year players like SPS you can say he is inside. All debatable.

So to bring some of my own stats to the table from the AFL website...the ones i'm interested in. Winning centre clearances, contested possessions, and tackling opponents who are trying to win centre clearances. Here is what i found:

Centre square clearances, tackles and contested possessions...some of the bona fide stats of an inside / outside midfielder...

• Murphy is ranked 44th for centre clearances.
  
• Murphy is ranked 46th for contested possessions.
  
• Murphy is ranked 58th for tackles.

Basically these stats are controlled by midfielders. Murphy doesn't rate in any of these that point towards a gun inside/outside player. Basically, these stats say he is very vanilla.

On the other hand...

• Murphy is ranked top 10 for uncontested possessions. A grade rating for outside uncontested footy.
  
• Murphy ranks 144th for goals. Suggests he is playing further away from goal maybe getting cheapies in the back half or just cant kick goals. He is ranked 18th for inside 50s which is good compared to his other stats.

Overall, it doesnt make great reading for mine,

 

[katmanblue]

Everyone can pick what they want to focus on, and interpretation is the key. I've watched games and made up my mind he is outside when we consider him vs A grade midfield players. Alternatively, Vs first year players like SPS you can say he is inside. All debatable.

So to bring some of my own stats to the table from the AFL website...the ones i'm interested in. Winning centre clearances, contested possessions, and tackling opponents who are trying to win centre clearances. Here is what i found:

Centre square clearances, tackles and contested possessions...some of the bona fide stats of an inside / outside midfielder...

• Murphy is ranked 44th for centre clearances.
  
• Murphy is ranked 46th for contested possessions.
  
• Murphy is ranked 58th for tackles.

Basically these stats are controlled by midfielders. Murphy doesn't rate in any of these that point towards a gun inside/outside player. Basically, these stats say he is very vanilla.

On the other hand...

• Murphy is ranked top 10 for uncontested possessions. A grade rating for outside uncontested footy.
  
• Murphy ranks 144th for goals. Suggests he is playing further away from goal maybe getting cheapies in the back half or just cant kick goals. He is ranked 18th for inside 50s which is good compared to his other stats.

Overall, it doesnt make great reading for mine,

We have less stoppages than any other team .

 

[BlueRenaissance]

We have less stoppages than any other team .

Great comeback. Carlton are 14th for stoppages.