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Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

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2014 Rogers absolute stuffed this draft, lucky SOS is around to help undo some of the damage.
Pickett pick 4
Marchbank pick 6
Boekhorst pick 19

I do not agree with your bashing of Rogers, nor conversely, the exclusivity of your praise for SOS.

Recruiting should NEVER be about picking the best player available.

It should be about picking the best player to complement the Coach's game plan given the players currently on the list and their expected future development and fitting the player(s) recruited into the salary cap.

Central to the recruiting task is therefore that there be a "game plan", A game plan is a blueprint for the way in which the coach expects the team to win the ball against opposition clubs when the opposition have the ball and when it is in contest, transition the ball into a scoring opportunity, and kick the goals. The coach needs to know what type of player is most critically missing (or likely to become a critical miss in the future because of age, go home, or injury) for his game plan to work most effectively.

But, as I have said repeatedly, a game plan is ONLY good if it maximises (uses) the skills and talents of each individual player in the team and minimises (hides) the absence of skills and talents of each individual player in the team. Go game plans MUST be 2-way creations. A coach needs to imagine what sort of player he wants for his game plan but, when he has them, he needs to adapt the game plan to the players selected.

The above approach is very clearly that of Clarkson from the get go. He cleared the list of players that he didn't want (like Graham) and was prepared to cop beltings whilst he worked out who on the list he had he could use going forward. Then he added players specific to the needs of his game plan (a heap of left footers). You can see the planned purpose for each player recruited by the Hawks. The decisions to rid themselves of Mitchell and Lewis for Mitchell and JOM shows exactly the sort of strategic planning Clarkson constantly engages in. But he leaves it to the recruiters to get the type of player he orders within the confines of the salary cap.

The problem for Rogers, particularly in 2014, was that there was one and only one purpose in the recruiting we engaged in that off-season - MM hoped for a quick injection of talent to make finals and keep his job. As is now generally recognised MM didn't have any real game plan (or at least not one that caused any difficulties for modern coaches). He kept hoping that with good enough players and his undoubted tactical nous we could win enough games to, whatever.
Now sure, DVR didn't work out and some blame for Rogers there, but after Clem Smith and Foster were picked, ignoring Acadaemy and Father/son picks. 11 players were recruited who have played a total of 17 games in 2 yrs (11 games to Logan Austin) with nothing to get excited about with any other pick. So it is not like there were a heap of obvious choices left. And of course our drafting before DVR was about getting a 3 yr tall to make an immediate impact plus a mature aged BB to also have immediate impact. Not sure these were Rogers call exclusively. I certainly see the hand of MM.
 
I do not agree with your bashing of Rogers, nor conversely, the exclusivity of your praise for SOS.

Recruiting should NEVER be about picking the best player available.

It should be about picking the best player to complement the Coach's game plan given the players currently on the list and their expected future development and fitting the player(s) recruited into the salary cap.

Central to the recruiting task is therefore that there be a "game plan", A game plan is a blueprint for the way in which the coach expects the team to win the ball against opposition clubs when the opposition have the ball and when it is in contest, transition the ball into a scoring opportunity, and kick the goals. The coach needs to know what type of player is most critically missing (or likely to become a critical miss in the future because of age, go home, or injury) for his game plan to work most effectively.

But, as I have said repeatedly, a game plan is ONLY good if it maximises (uses) the skills and talents of each individual player in the team and minimises (hides) the absence of skills and talents of each individual player in the team. Go game plans MUST be 2-way creations. A coach needs to imagine what sort of player he wants for his game plan but, when he has them, he needs to adapt the game plan to the players selected.

The above approach is very clearly that of Clarkson from the get go. He cleared the list of players that he didn't want (like Graham) and was prepared to cop beltings whilst he worked out who on the list he had he could use going forward. Then he added players specific to the needs of his game plan (a heap of left footers). You can see the planned purpose for each player recruited by the Hawks. The decisions to rid themselves of Mitchell and Lewis for Mitchell and JOM shows exactly the sort of strategic planning Clarkson constantly engages in. But he leaves it to the recruiters to get the type of player he orders within the confines of the salary cap.

The problem for Rogers, particularly in 2014, was that there was one and only one purpose in the recruiting we engaged in that off-season - MM hoped for a quick injection of talent to make finals and keep his job. As is now generally recognised MM didn't have any real game plan (or at least not one that caused any difficulties for modern coaches). He kept hoping that with good enough players and his undoubted tactical nous we could win enough games to, whatever.
Now sure, DVR didn't work out and some blame for Rogers there, but after Clem Smith and Foster were picked, ignoring Acadaemy and Father/son picks. 11 players were recruited who have played a total of 17 games in 2 yrs (11 games to Logan Austin) with nothing to get excited about with any other pick. So it is not like there were a heap of obvious choices left. And of course our drafting before DVR was about getting a 3 yr tall to make an immediate impact plus a mature aged BB to also have immediate impact. Not sure these were Rogers call exclusively. I certainly see the hand of MM.

Good points throughout, though I think the art of list management is planning and maintaining a list well enough that you don't have to "recruit for needs". If ever a club finds themselves in a position where they have to take an average tall forward in the draft when there was an elite midfielder available, then the club has screwed up much earlier in the piece.

The aim should be to have a balanced and flexible team, enough so that you can "recruit for needs" well in advance of the actual need arising, allowing enough flexibility to take the standout players when they pop up.
 

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Good points throughout, though I think the art of list management is planning and maintaining a list well enough that you don't have to "recruit for needs". If ever a club finds themselves in a position where they have to take an average tall forward in the draft when there was an elite midfielder available, then the club has screwed up much earlier in the piece.

The aim should be to have a balanced and flexible team, enough so that you can "recruit for needs" well in advance of the actual need arising, allowing enough flexibility to take the standout players when they pop up.

What you are talking about is an ideal world, not a real world. If your game plan revolves around KPF targets like Buddy and Roughhead then it can be a bit tough to anticipate one departing and the other suffering illness at the mid point of their careers.

You always have to recruit for needs. The geography of the playing list is ever-changing. Some players get injured, bored or homesick. Some players come from nowhere to be stars. It is quite impossible to anticipate everything.

But you are right as to your example. "Recruiting for needs" does NOT mean drafting "an average tall forward" when an elite mid is available. If you think the tall "average" what is the point in drafting them at all.

When we drafted Harry McK we all hoped he would become an elite 100 plus a season goal kicking machine. Even if he does it is highly unlikely he will prove it in 2017. So we may not know whether Harry will even be an average tall forward, let alone a good one this time next year. And we "missed out" on Jade Gresham who in his first season looks like being terrific. I think we would have been mad not to have drafted him, however much we might have liked Gresham.

And we will still have a "win" drafting him if he ends up playing 200 games and kicks 400 goals over a 12 year career. You can build a flag-winning forward line around a player like that. Look at Mark McClure. But for all we now know he might not be able to stand up to the rigours of AFL football physically or mentally. As good as Gresham may become, he would do little to help us win a flag without KPFs to kick to. At next year's draft we will know better about him, Kerr, MacReadie and others. Their progress should play a big role in the sort of players we draft in 2017 - reputed to be good for talls.

I'm hoping that the talls we have got all look the goods and we concentrate on picking up elite mids. But who knows? The geography of lists changes very quickly. Maybe SPS, Pickett and Cuningham and Graham show next year our midfield depth is extraordinary. Graham you ask? Why not. Seb Ross had a break out year in 2016. He is more than a year older than Graham. This is the comparison between Graham (2016) and Ross (2015):

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...&pid1=3663&pid2=3847&fid1=P&fopt1=2015&fid2=S

How do you anticipate that?
 
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2016/12/04/pure-footy-what-can-carlton-do-in-2017/

However Luff says that due to the loss of a host of experienced players, including Michael Jamison, Andrew Walker, Zach Tuohy and Andrejs Everitt, Carlton are likely to go backwards next season, not forwards. -

Not sure why we would go back ward as Zach Tuohy is the only top line experienced player we lost come 2017 but in an area we can easily cover, "Michael Jamison, Andrew Walker and Andrejs Everitt" did not contribute much ...
 
Luff is correct that we could easily finish lower in 2017 than we did in 2016. I can certainly see us slipping back into the bottom 4 and possibly even the bottom 2.

There are reasons why that may eventuate but the reason he put forward in that article is clearly flawed.

Jamison, Walker and Everitt contributed nothing in 2016, so them not being there in 2017 will be largely inconsequential. Tuohy is the only real loss of note.
 
Luff is correct that we could easily finish lower in 2017 than we did in 2016. I can certainly see us slipping back into the bottom 4 and possibly even the bottom 2.

There are reasons why that may eventuate but the reason he put forward in that article is clearly flawed.

Jamison, Walker and Everitt contributed nothing in 2016, so them not being there in 2017 will be largely inconsequential. Tuohy is the only real loss of note.

He is a loss, but isn't the gain larger with Marchbank & Pickett?
No-one thinks they'll go backwards and maybe we will, but I do think that's somewhat reducing the effectiveness of

a. The young playing group who is now one year older.
b. The effectiveness of the coaching group, second year in.
 
Smedts, Palmer, Marchbank and Pickett should compensate for the outs.

Whether we go backwards depends on how soon youngsters in SPS, Cuningham and Fisher rejuvenate our midfield and McKay and Curnow our forward line.
 
He is a loss, but isn't the gain larger with Marchbank & Pickett?
No-one thinks they'll go backwards and maybe we will, but I do think that's somewhat reducing the effectiveness of

a. The young playing group who is now one year older.
b. The effectiveness of the coaching group, second year in.

It would be more enjoyable to watch thru with conditional players moved on.
 
Smedts, Palmer, Marchbank and Pickett should compensate for the outs.

Whether we go backwards depends on how soon youngsters in SPS, Cuningham and Fisher rejuvenate our midfield and McKay and Curnow our forward line.

Smedts ? From what i have seen of him, he certainly is nowhere our best/starting 22 (or he shouldn't be)

He just seems like a Salary Cap dump by Geelong as part of the Tuohy trade, only a depth player/backup, to be brutally honest..
 

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Smedts ? From what i have seen of him, he certainly is nowhere our best/starting 22 (or he shouldn't be)

He just seems like a Salary Cap dump by Geelong as part of the Tuohy trade, only a depth player/backup, to be brutally honest..
More likely to play games in 2017 than Tutt, Whiley, Dick, etc did this year.
 
Smedts ? From what i have seen of him, he certainly is nowhere our best/starting 22 (or he shouldn't be)

He just seems like a Salary Cap dump by Geelong as part of the Tuohy trade, only a depth player/backup, to be brutally honest..

He's at a similar level to Sumner. It's interesting we asked for him specifically, so we must like some aspect of his play.

He has pace and X-factor, so I reckon he'll get a bigger look in than many of us suspect. Also a bigger size than some of our smaller forwards and to date has better form. Not certain he's got a massive future but he'll fill a need.
 
I don't think we'll go backwards, but I see us finishing in a similar position to last year; which would be a reasonable result. We manage to scrape through a few good wins last year and even pushed some of the top teams but things will be tougher this year. We also picked off teams at just the right times (Geelong in a form slump, Collingwood in a form slump, Freo in freefall, Essendon with their hodgepodge team), though the Port and Melbourne wins were tough, gritty victories.

We'll sacrifice a bit of leadership and experience for skillset and dynamics too. We'll see more exciting football, while subsequently seeing a few more errors and the general learning curve of the younger guys. I reckon we'll push more teams for longer too.
 
Smedts, was the next big thing at the Cats a few years back. A combination of injuries and opportunity set him back immensely.
I can't say I am "bullish" about him, but IMO Scott is a very ordinary coach, who has mismanaged a number of players. I see
Scott as a Ratten type coach, relying on the stars, rather than producing a modern team oriented game plan. Would love a
sit down with Stevie J and a couple of others.

Amos I believe is a big wrap for Billie, hoping for a pleasant surprise.
 
I'm more surprised to hear David King talking us up! :huh:
People always get worked up when people in the media are negative towards their club, but Kingy was 100% correct about every aspect he was bagging our list management about in the past. The way that SOS has handled our list since taking over suggests that he agreed with King.

It's amasing how things change when we have a professional and planned approach to list management. Whether or not things work out for us I don't know, but I can never remember being as excited about the youth at our club than I am right now. Finally, after years of seeing no light at the end of the tunnel, I can see that we are a chance of being a contender at some point in the future.
 

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hanging by a thread - it's a case of how he handles the pressure of knowing he probably only has a season left to prove himself at Princes Park - he might use it to lift and throw everything at his career and make it - or he might crash and burn under the strain - he has a few tools but is very slow which won't help him - I like him and hope he makes it
 
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