Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Malifice]

We have already drafted the gun CHF: Jacob Weitering.

You bleating on that we only have one KPF prospect on our list in Harry McKay doesn't make it true, given the fact the club clearly see Weitering as a KPF prospect.

No, they dont. Theyve clearly stated that they drafted him as a defender, but are playing him as as swingman at present. This is just about developing him in a nothing year, not a permanent switch up forward.

With Levi on a one year deal and vulnerable this year to either delisting (he has a stinker of a year) or free agency (he has a blinder of a year), McKay needing more time in the 2's and us having no other Key Forward types (we are currently ranked 18th for points per game despite Levi and Wright going OK), but a glut of tall KPD (Marchbank, Macreadie, Rowe, Plowman, Williamson) we can afford to play him up forward.

Hes been OK, but he was much better last year as a defender. Or have we forgotten this already:

Weitering, who has already lined up against star forwards Jack Riewoldt, Lance Franklin and Tom Lynch, ranks first among this year’s eligible Rising Star nominees for total rebound 50s, marks, contested marks and one percenters.

He tops the leaderboard at the Blues for total contested marks, ranking a staggering fifth across the league in this category.

In Carlton’s season opener against Richmond, Weitering’s 94.1 per cent disposal efficiency was the highest of any player who had over 15 disposals.

If Cas leaves for Free agency, we are stuck with a 19 year old McKay (who is still some years off development wise), Silvagni and Curnow as our forward line next year. Bolton (wisely) is playing Wietering down there this year to bridge that gap. We have KPD to spare, but a dearth of KPF.

Our ideal spine is (Weitering/ Marchbank/ Cripps/ ?????? / McKay).

Now look at that again, only throwing Tom Lynch in there where the ??? are.

 

[HARKER]

Just mentioned on Fox Sports News that SPS & Charlie are close to signing new long term contract extensions.

So much for Samo being unhappy & wanting home....

Wouldn't be too worried with 4 for each, as long as we have the handle on the TPP.

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

No, they dont. Theyve clearly stated that they drafted him as a defender, but are playing him as as swingman at present. This is just about developing him in a nothing year, not a permanent switch up forward.

With Levi on a one year deal and vulnerable this year to either delisting (he has a stinker of a year) or free agency (he has a blinder of a year), McKay needing more time in the 2's and us having no other Key Forward types (we are currently ranked 18th for points per game despite Levi and Wright going OK), but a glut of tall KPD (Marchbank, Macreadie, Rowe, Plowman, Williamson) we can afford to play him up forward.

Hes been OK, but he was much better last year as a defender. Or have we forgotten this already:



If Cas leaves for Free agency, we are stuck with a 19 year old McKay (who is still some years off development wise), Silvagni and Curnow as our forward line next year. Bolton (wisely) is playing Wietering down there this year to bridge that gap. We have KPD to spare, but a dearth of KPF.

Our ideal spine is (Weitering/ Marchbank/ Cripps/ ?????? / McKay).

Now look at that again, only throwing Tom Lynch in there where the ??? are.

If you're not going to acknowledge that we in fact have two young potential KPFs on our list in Weitering and McKay then you should probably stop posting.

Ruling out Weitering because he might play back in future is absurd.

 

[LanceRomance]

No, they dont. Theyve clearly stated that they drafted him as a defender, but are playing him as as swingman at present. This is just about developing him in a nothing year, not a permanent switch up forward.

With Levi on a one year deal and vulnerable this year to either delisting (he has a stinker of a year) or free agency (he has a blinder of a year), McKay needing more time in the 2's and us having no other Key Forward types (we are currently ranked 18th for points per game despite Levi and Wright going OK), but a glut of tall KPD (Marchbank, Macreadie, Rowe, Plowman, Williamson) we can afford to play him up forward.

Hes been OK, but he was much better last year as a defender. Or have we forgotten this already:



If Cas leaves for Free agency, we are stuck with a 19 year old McKay (who is still some years off development wise), Silvagni and Curnow as our forward line next year. Bolton (wisely) is playing Wietering down there this year to bridge that gap. We have KPD to spare, but a dearth of KPF.

Our ideal spine is (Weitering/ Marchbank/ Cripps/ ?????? / McKay).

Now look at that again, only throwing Tom Lynch in there where the ??? are.

you are listening to what the club are stating to the public.

I expect you to overcome this bias in 1-2 weeks

 

[HARKER]

If you're not going to acknowledge that we in fact have two young potential KPFs on our list in Weitering and McKay then you should probably stop posting.

Ruling out Weitering because he might play back in future is absurd.

Mal is stuck on a FF being a beast and that may prove to be right in the end, but things change.

As long as the smarts of the collective is there, who cares how the goals come about and if that means a mix of Weitering, Charlie and all being well, Mckay, then that's just fine.

McKay is very well regarded at the club but like with anyone (Tom Lynch included) nothing has been achieved until it has.....in the meantime.....we talk.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

If you're not going to acknowledge that we in fact have two young potential KPFs on our list in Weitering and McKay then you should probably stop posting.

Ruling out Weitering because he might play back in future is absurd.

What's absurd is people thinking that Weitering, McKay and Kerr will make it as KPF players. I say that as there appears to be a train of thought on this forum that its a fait accompli that one, if not all of them will " make it " All three of them have potential to make it a KPF's, that's it at this point, there is no guarantee any of them will make it at all. If only one of them makes it, we will have done very well. Any more than that is a bonus for us.

Malifice has made it abundantly clear in his posts over the last few pages, while acknowledging what we already have on our list btw, that in his opinion we should look at drafting another one this year to go with what we already have. I don't disagree with this opinion, but I also believe that if Levi's form continues as it has done for the rest of the season, then we should look to offer him another contract for two or three years while our current KPF's and a new draftee KPF develops. I'm not sure giving away our only experienced mature KPF at seasons end is the correct move.

 

[Malifice]

If you're not going to acknowledge that we in fact have two young potential KPFs on our list in Weitering and McKay then you should probably stop posting.

Ruling out Weitering because he might play back in future is absurd.

Weitering is not a KPF. Hes a Key Defender, who we drafted as a Key defender, after spending the TAC cup as a Key Defender, and spent his first year playing full back as a Key Defender. He has been shifted up forward for the last seven games to provide us with an extra option up forward, because after Levi Casboult we dont have any other AFL ready Key Forwards at present. We're assisting in his development in a nothing year where we expect to finish down the bottom of the ladder.

He looked much better last year as a Key Defender than he has this year as a stand in forward.

And re McKay he is a [maybe] for me as a Key Forward. We drafted him as a key forward but we wont know if he's any good (60+ goals) for another few years yet.

Like I said - our future spine is:

[FB]: Weitering
[CHB]: Marchbank
[C]: Cripps
[CHF]: ??????
[FF]" McKay

Weitering, Mbank and Cripps are proven talents at AFL level in those positions. McKay is not.

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

Wouldn't be too worried with 4 for each, as long as we have the handle on the TPP.

4 would be a great result all round I think. Be about in line with Crippa and Weiters then.

Do a little front loading so we can meet our TPP minimum requirements, then from 2019 we can go FA shopping.

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Weitering is not a KPF. Hes a Key Defender, who we drafted as a Key defender, after spending the TAC cup as a Key Defender, and spent his first year playing full back as a Key Defender. He has been shifted up forward for the last seven games to provide us with an extra option up forward, because after Levi Casboult we dont have any other AFL ready Key Forwards at present. We're assisting in his development in a nothing year where we expect to finish down the bottom of the ladder.

He looked much better last year as a Key Defender than he has this year as a stand in forward.

And re McKay he is a [maybe] for me as a Key Forward. We drafted him as a key forward but we wont know if he's any good (60+ goals) for another few years yet.

Like I said - our future spine is:

[FB]: Weitering
[CHB]: Marchbank
[C]: Cripps
[CHF]: ??????
[FF]" McKay

Weitering, Mbank and Cripps are proven talents at AFL level in those positions. McKay is not.

He played his last season of TAC Cup as a defender, the previous year as a forward. Why does that make him a key defender?

I would suggest that he looked much better as a second tall defender last year as it is a much easier position to play than CHF.

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Regardless, Carlton are apparently interested in Tayla Harris. KPF problem solved and no need to hear any more of Mal's "lawyer voice" bleatings.

 

[Pafloyul]

For those looking to move on Casbault, you can look across at the Pies and check out how trading Cloke has helped D Moore progress.

Seriously inept analysis in wanting to trade Casbault.

Anyone look closely at Moore's face last week as he played. Failure was ingrained on it. Lack of confidence as the pressure has built up so high as a sole target.

You can't trade out players that other clubs aren't willing to give up something for and we need quality midfielders pretty badly. It's either make some tough decisions or start trading away early draft choices left, right and centre. That would truly be inept.

 

[bluemahogany]

Weitering is not a KPF. Hes a Key Defender, who we drafted as a Key defender, after spending the TAC cup as a Key Defender, and spent his first year playing full back as a Key Defender. He has been shifted up forward for the last seven games to provide us with an extra option up forward, because after Levi Casboult we dont have any other AFL ready Key Forwards at present. We're assisting in his development in a nothing year where we expect to finish down the bottom of the ladder.

He looked much better last year as a Key Defender than he has this year as a stand in forward.

And re McKay he is a [maybe] for me as a Key Forward. We drafted him as a key forward but we wont know if he's any good (60+ goals) for another few years yet.

Like I said - our future spine is:

[FB]: Weitering
[CHB]: Marchbank
[C]: Cripps
[CHF]: ??????
[FF]" McKay

Weitering, Mbank and Cripps are proven talents at AFL level in those positions. McKay is not.

Is it not obvious that Weitering will be our future CHF unless something drastic happens, yes he looked good in defence, but it is a much easier position to play. Not to mention we have depth there. Someone with Weitering's talent is suited to be a forward. You can't just dismiss Weitering as a KPF when he is obviously playing there and doesn't look like moving.

 

[Iamcarlton]

What's absurd is people thinking that Weitering, McKay and Kerr will make it as KPF players. I say that as there appears to be a train of thought on this forum that its a fait accompli that one, if not all of them will " make it " All three of them have potential to make it a KPF's, that's it at this point, there is no guarantee any of them will make it at all. If only one of them makes it, we will have done very well. Any more than that is a bonus for us.

Malifice has made it abundantly clear in his posts over the last few pages, while acknowledging what we already have on our list btw, that in his opinion we should look at drafting another one this year to go with what we already have. I don't disagree with this opinion, but I also believe that if Levi's form continues as it has done for the rest of the season, then we should look to offer him another contract for two or three years while our current KPF's and a new draftee KPF develops. I'm not sure giving away our only experienced mature KPF at seasons end is the correct move.

Bludy disastrous move i agree to offload or not match a rival offer on Casboult . He means a great deal to our developing forwards .

 

[Malifice]

He played his last season of TAC Cup as a defender, the previous year as a forward. Why does that make him a key defender?

I would suggest that he looked much better as a second tall defender last year as it is a much easier position to play than CHF.

Bloody hard to hold down CHB as an 18 year old. He had 26 disposals and took 9 intercept marks in his 3rd game against GCS playing on Tom Lynch (and earning a R/S nom). The week before he played on Buddy Franklin. He stood Jack Riewoldt the week before that. He either beat or matched them all, and after those three weeks he was 5th in the AFL for contested marks.

Thats like kicking 15 goals in your first three games as an 18 year old CHF.

My view is the club sees as him a Defender long term. This year its just about giving him some exposure up forward, and for the coaches to see if he might be the answer to the gaping hole we have up forward (the gaping hole up forward that I want to fill with a draftee, releasing Weitering back down back) and as partial back up if McKay doesn't come on.

Plan B for the 2020 spine is:

[FB]Macreadie
[CHB] Marchbank
[C] Cripps
[CHF] Weitering
[FF] McKay

I would much rather Weitering back (and being used up forward as a swingman) than the other way around. He was a freak down there last year, before fading late (as most kids do in their first season).

 

[katmanblue]

That was my first thought. But that is nit picking.

Use one of those metal combs for that.

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dramoth]

Two reasons.

One; a club that was dangling cash in front of either player probably does it in the form of a three year deal. Assuming both players continue their current form, and Levi kicks close to 50 goals this year, then thats going to be 1.5 million over 3 years for him, and around 2 million over 3 for Kruezer.

Based on Levis flaky form (he could go back to what we saw last year) and Kruezers injury history, plus the ages of those two players, plus the fact that deals of that magnitude probably net us a top 20 draft pick as compo its not exactly black and white that keeping them is in the best interests of the rebuild.

If it's all about picks for you and you just consider football to be a business now, then you have lost the picture that football is tribal and fans are going to be romantics about certain players. It's why people go out and get certain players numbers put on the backs of their jumpers. It's why they join the cheer squad and go in with a banner dedicated to their favourite player. Kids play with their mates in the street or down the park pretending to be their favourite players.

It's why there is a video from a few years back of a young Carlton supporter responding with the names of the players when her daddy calls out the number (and says the nicknames of some of them instead of their surnames).

It's never just about the picks! It's about the passion of the supporters and the players and the club last of all.

And it's why we hate Collingwood, Essendon and Richmond with a passion!

 

[BigFrizz36]

He played his last season of TAC Cup as a defender, the previous year as a forward. Why does that make him a key defender?

I would suggest that he looked much better as a second tall defender last year as it is a much easier position to play than CHF.

Personally think that Weitering could be a great high centre half forward. Pretty much what he did against the Swans. Charlie Curnow then becomes your traditional centre half forward/on ball 25% (Cripps to spend the other 25% up forward) and Harry McKay as your traditional full forward. Clearly big Harry needs to come on but gee this would be a tough forward set up to match up on. Clearly rotate around but 202cm mobile McKay, 195cm great hands and use Weitering and 194cm great tank and deceptively good hands Charlie. We could already have our forwards sorted if Harry comes on. Doesn't even need to kick 60. If the three of them could kick 90 between them, chuck in Jack and a couple of zippy forwards and we could be away.

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Bloody hard to hold down CHB as an 18 year old. He had 26 disposals and took 9 intercept marks in his 3rd game against GCS playing on Tom Lynch (and earning a R/S nom). The week before he played on Buddy Franklin. He stood Jack Riewoldt the week before that. He either beat or matched them all, and after those three weeks he was 5th in the AFL for contested marks.

Thats like kicking 15 goals in your first three games as an 18 year old CHF.

My view is the club sees as him a Defender long term. This year its just about giving him some exposure up forward, and for the coaches to see if he might be the answer to the gaping hole we have up forward (the gaping hole up forward that I want to fill with a draftee, releasing Weitering back down back) and as partial back up if McKay doesn't come on.

Plan B for the 2020 spine is:

[FB]Macreadie
[CHB] Marchbank
[C] Cripps
[CHF] Weitering
[FF] McKay

I would much rather Weitering back (and being used up forward as a swingman) than the other way around. He was a freak down there last year, before fading late (as most kids do in their first season).

Not sure what any of that has to do with you refusing to acknowledge that the KPF cupboard isn't completely bare other than McKay...

Obviously this is going nowhere though so let's move on.

 

[Malifice]

Is it not obvious that Weitering will be our future CHF unless something drastic happens, yes he looked good in defence, but it is a much easier position to play. Not to mention we have depth there. Someone with Weitering's talent is suited to be a forward. You can't just dismiss Weitering as a KPF when he is obviously playing there and doesn't look like moving.

Its a temporary measure.

We have plenty of coverage down back, and sweet F/A tall key forward types, so they're trialing it in a nothing year while he's young to increase our scoring options and see how he goes and give him some exposure.

He looked much better in defence last year for mine.

Are we seriously forgetting how good his start to the year was? Ive literally never seen an 18 yer old play that good straight off the bat.

 

[ferrisb]

Anyone look closely at Moore's face last week as he played. Failure was ingrained on it. Lack of confidence as the pressure has built up so high as a sole target.

Darcy Moore is a 2nd generation Collingwood player.

Of course he's got failure ingrained on his face

 

[Dramoth]

Im not saying all 1st round picks end up guns, nor am I saying all picks in the 70's end up washing out. You seem to think that I am saying this for some reason. Its super weird.

What I am saying is players selected earlier in the draft average more games played than players selected later. A player selected in the top 10 is a better chance of making it at AFL level, over a player selected in the 60's. This is uncontroversial to anyone but you, and firmly backed up by empirical evidence and history. Recruiters tend to select the players most likely to make it first.

Would you rather have picks 2, 4 and 13 in the draft this year or picks 59, 65, and 77 this year? Of those two groups of three players selected with those picks, which group (in your opinion) will be more likely to wind up with more games and awards?

You seem to be struggling with this and I cant figure out why.

Because people are not computers and have a touch of romance in their souls.

 

[La Dispute]

Its a temporary measure.

We have plenty of coverage down back, and sweet F/A tall key forward types, so they're trialing it in a nothing year while he's young to increase our scoring options and see how he goes and give him some exposure.

He looked much better in defence last year for mine.

Are we seriously forgetting how good his start to the year was? Ive literally never seen an 18 yer old play that good straight off the bat.

Interesting.

I don't necessarily agree it's a temporary measure but I share the view we're light on for key forwards. Curnow is more a rangey flanker, who'll develop into a mid in time, Silvagni is a third tall... Casboult might receive an offer elsewhere and then we're seriously down in KPF stocks.

I'm not as bullish on McKay, and although I've liked what I've seen from Kerr he's a later pick and very much a maybe.

The priority is still fixing up our midfield, but I wont be as confident in our future forwardline until McKay is playing at AFL level and performing to an acceptable standard.

 

[Malifice]

Not sure what any of that has to do with you refusing to acknowledge that the KPF cupboard isn't completely bare other than McKay...

Obviously this is going nowhere though so let's move on.

We could play Mcreadie or Marchbank up there also. A position on the ground isnt an inherent quality of a player man.

Weitering looks to me like he might develop into an OK 40 goal a season CHF. Mobile. Worth a goal or two a game. Like a lesser version of Riewoldt snr. Might pop up and kick three or four here or there, and then have a quiet one.

OTOH, he also has the tools to be an elite, multiple AA Full back.

Its like us playing Cripps or Kruezer as a forward. Im sure either could do it OK considering both players height, but they're better players elsewhere.

Why dont we just draft a key forward to do a key forwards job? The giants drafted no fewer than four and they're reaping the rewards via Patton and Cameron. Are we saying we're done with key forwards? We dont need any more? We dont draft one with a first rounder no matter what? Like... if Ben Silvagni gets bid on in the first round next year, we shouldn't match because 'he's not a midfielder'?

Or does the rule change next year to 'no drafting key forwards with our first rounder (unless hes the son of a club champion)?'

I just find this 'no drafting key forwards this year with our first rounder' to reek a little of group think.

 

[Dramoth]

What's absurd is people thinking that Weitering, McKay and Kerr will make it as KPF players. I say that as there appears to be a train of thought on this forum that its a fait accompli that one, if not all of them will " make it " All three of them have potential to make it a KPF's, that's it at this point, there is no guarantee any of them will make it at all. If only one of them makes it, we will have done very well. Any more than that is a bonus for us.

Malifice has made it abundantly clear in his posts over the last few pages, while acknowledging what we already have on our list btw, that in his opinion we should look at drafting another one this year to go with what we already have. I don't disagree with this opinion, but I also believe that if Levi's form continues as it has done for the rest of the season, then we should look to offer him another contract for two or three years while our current KPF's and a new draftee KPF develops. I'm not sure giving away our only experienced mature KPF at seasons end is the correct move.

No... Mal wants to keep wasting high picks on key position players who will take 2-3 years to develop. And in the mean time, our midfield is getting older and more pressure is going to be heaping up on Cripps.

We need to seriously bolster our midfield this year while the chances are here. SOS will know when all the best forwards are going to be available through the draft or when their current contracts run out. And in the meanwhile, Gibbs might leave come the end of the year and Simpson could retire. Then, we are left trying to fill our midfield with our second string reserves for a couple of years... ohh... and he wants to get rid of the only ruckman in the league who, when the ball hits the deck, turns into another midfielder.

SOS has a plan and, thank god, none of us have any sort of input into it.

 

[Malifice]

Interesting.

I don't necessarily agree it's a temporary measure but I share the view we're light on for key forwards. Curnow is more a rangey flanker, who'll develop into a mid in time, Silvagni is a third tall... Casboult might receive an offer elsewhere and then we're seriously down in KPF stocks.

I'm not as bullish on McKay, and although I've liked what I've seen from Kerr he's a later pick and very much a maybe.

The priority is still fixing up our midfield, but I wont be as confident in our future forwardline until McKay is playing at AFL level and performing to an acceptable standard.

The weirdest thing is many on here who are adamant we shouldn't be drafting a key forward, would be totally OK with doing so next year for Ben Silvagni (assuming he both makes the draft, and attracts a first round bid on merit).

Im OK with drafting Ben next year (and if there was some evidence that he might turn into that 60 goal CHF we desperately need I'd shut the **** up about drafting a KPF this year and agree we should smash mids, mids and only mids, pick up Ben next year and be done with it).

Its just I would give my left nut for a 60+ goal CHF, coming into his prime circa 2020 when we are starting to challenge (plus a second and third tall marking forward kicking 40+ each). This releases a 23 year old Weitering to Full back, with support from a 24 year old Marchbank and Plowman, a 26 year old Docherty and a 22 year old Williamson.

That backline is multiple AA quality, and the best we've had since Dean, Christou, Silvagni, Hanna, McKay.

This fixation on mids this year to the exclusion of both a Ruck and a KPF (two huge holes on our list in key areas) is wierding me out.