Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[ferrisb]

Can we drop the mids vs KPF discussion?

Fast forward to November and you know SOS is going to draft or trade in 3 more CHBs

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Can we drop the mids vs KPF discussion?

Fast forward to November and you know SOS is going to draft or trade in 3 more CHBs

Someone will have to fill the void left back there by Armfield's departure.

 

[KohPhi]

My opinion (whilst not being worth much) is that Weitering will be a very, very good forward. But I think he will be an AA elite defender.
What do we want more? I'll put my hat in the defender corner.

 

[rog1995]

Depending on where we finish it will be best available. If that's a midfielder so be it. I trust what SOS is doing. As for BSOS the general consenses is he is better than JSOS. I wouldn't want to write off a Silvagni because he's not in the top 10 of the Draft.
Let him play school footy quietly in the background and If he gets drafted it will be for alot less than he's worth.
I personally believe a midfielder is what we need as a priority we lack run and carry. Murphy is turning 30 and Gibbs is 28 and may get traded. Need to support Cripps and sps in the long term. No good having a forward line without a decent midfield.

 

[katmanblue]

You'd only pursue an option like that if you had almost all of the pieces properly assembled and needed that last one in 2020.

Like McEvoy.

We've some work to do.

By some you mean a lot, right?

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mr_Plow]

By some you mean a lot, right?

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BlueRenaissance]

Depending on where we finish it will be best available. If that's a midfielder so be it. I trust what sos is doing. As for bsos the general consenses is he is better than jsos. I wouldn't want to write off a Silvagni because he's not in the top 10 of the Draft.
Let him play school footy quietly in the background and If he gets drafted it will be for alot less than he's worth.
I personally believe a midfielder is what we need as a priority. Murphy is turning 30 and Gibbs is 28 and may get traded. Need to support Cripps and sps in the long term. No good having a forward line without a decent midfield.

This is the first year I agree in drafting a gun mid over a KPF. I've always been about getting that KPF previously and I'm still ok if we take a gun KPF, wont spit my dummy or anything but slightly prefer a gun mid. As our quality improves you can see the quality of the kick going inside 50 will improve. Our conversion ratio is on the up. Yes I want a KPF to rule them all like we all do but Weitering, Silver, Curnow, Casb with a chance of Mckay chiming in is enough for me to want that midfielder. Silver and Curnow will improve a heap on the back of a midfielder who can kick well. For the first time, it is not clearcut on who we should draft.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Depending on where we finish it will be best available. If that's a midfielder so be it. I trust what SOS is doing. As for BSOS the general consenses is he is better than JSOS. I wouldn't want to write off a Silvagni because he's not in the top 10 of the Draft.
Let him play school footy quietly in the background and If he gets drafted it will be for alot less than he's worth.
I personally believe a midfielder is what we need as a priority we lack run and carry. Murphy is turning 30 and Gibbs is 28 and may get traded. Need to support Cripps and sps in the long term. No good having a forward line without a decent midfield.

Someone, can't remember who, directed me to take a look at draft prospect Cam Rayner a little while back. I think he's exactly the kind of player we should look at with our first pick this year. Reminds me a bit of Taranto, being a definite midfield prospect who could do good work up forward in his first season or two before transitioning on-ball.

 

[Malifice]

No... Mal wants to keep wasting high picks on key position players who will take 2-3 years to develop. And in the mean time, our midfield is getting older and more pressure is going to be heaping up on Cripps.

How on earth is drafting a CHF (a position held down by a 27 year old Levi Casboult at the moment) 'wasting' a high pick.

We've drafted one key forward with a high (top 10) pick in in 12 years (McKay). The last key forward we drafted before him with a top 10 pick was Josh frigging Kennedy. I dont consider C Curnow a Key Forward.

Last year we drafted a Mid with picks 1 and 2 (SPS and Fisher), a flanker with Williamson, a Key Defender with Macreadie, another mid with Polson, and then a FF in Kerr with a speculative late pick.

The way I see it we have 3 x 1sts and 2 x 2nd round picks left to get the list in order by 2020. We'll likely get an end of first round pick (assume Casboult kicks 40-50 this year, attracts an offer of 1.5 million for 3 years, and we get band 2 Compo) and Adelaides 1st rounder (assume Gibbs leaves this time) to play with also. Over these three years, we should be able to attract a Free agent (likely end of 2019. For this example Im going to use Dyaln Shiel as that singular F/A.

2017 1st [KPP]
Adelaides 2017 1st - pick 17 [Mid]
2017 pick 19 [Mid]
2018 1st [Mid]
2018 2nd [Used to match BSOS bid]
2019 1st [Mid]
2020 2nd [Mid]
Dyan Shiel [Mid]

There you go. Cripps, SPS, Dylan Shiel, 4 x midfielders selected with 1st round picks, 1 x selected with a second rounder, 2 x KPF's.

Cripps, SPS, Shiel and the 4 as yet unnamed midfielders make that 7 mids drafted with 1st rounders.

Fisher, Cuningham and the Mid selected with 2019's 2nd round pick make it 3 mids selected with second rounders.

Ten midfielders aged between 26 and 18 ready to go for the window 2020-2025.

We need to seriously bolster our midfield this year while the chances are here. SOS will know when all the best forwards are going to be available through the draft or when their current contracts run out.

And in the meanwhile, Gibbs might leave come the end of the year and Simpson could retire. Then, we are left trying to fill our midfield with our second string reserves for a couple of years... o

Who really cares if Gibbs leaves this year and Simpson retires? Williamson slots straight in for Simpson. We arent winning the flag next year or the year after, and between Murphy, Cripps, E Curnow, SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, Graham, Smedts, (player selected this year at pick 17 for Gibbs), (player selected at pick 19 for Kruezer), Pickett, Polson and Kerridge, Im sure we'll manage to treat water at the very least.

Thats the exact same midfield as this year, just with Gibbs taken out, and two players taken in the top 20 of the draft put back in, plus a Cripps with a full preseason, and SPS with a years senior footy in his legs.

he wants to get rid of the only ruckman in the league who, when the ball hits the deck, turns into another midfielder.

Dont put words in my mouth that I didnt say. You're better than that.

I said If a free agency offer comes in for Kruezer in the 2 million over 3 years mark, we would have to look long and hard to match it, and I reckon at that price point (considering Kruezers injury history) and the fact its likely to attract band 2 Compo at the very least (and possibly band 1 compo) we would likely wave goodbye to Matthew rather than match it. Thats a very different thing to me 'wanting to get rid of him'.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Best available.......as long as he's a mid.

 

[rog1995]

How on earth is drafting a CHF (a position held down by a 27 year old Levi Casboult at the moment) 'wasting' a high pick.

We've drafted one key forward with a high (top 10) pick in in 12 years (McKay). The last key forward we drafted before him with a top 10 pick was Josh frigging Kennedy. I dont consider C Curnow a Key Forward.

Last year we drafted a Mid with picks 1 and 2 (SPS and Fisher), a flanker with Williamson, a Key Defender with Macreadie, another mid with Polson, and then a FF in Kerr with a speculative late pick.

The way I see it we have 3 x 1sts and 2 x 2nd round picks left to get the list in order by 2020. We'll likely get an end of first round pick (assume Casboult kicks 40-50 this year, attracts an offer of 1.5 million for 3 years, and we get band 2 Compo) and Adelaides 1st rounder (assume Gibbs leaves this time) to play with also. Over these three years, we should be able to attract a Free agent (likely end of 2019. For this example Im going to use Dyaln Shiel as that singular F/A.

2017 1st [KPP]
Adelaides 2017 1st - pick 17 [Mid]
2017 pick 19 [Mid]
2018 1st [Mid]
2018 2nd [Used to match BSOS bid]
2019 1st [Mid]
2020 2nd [Mid]
Dyan Shiel [Mid]

There you go. Cripps, SPS, Dylan Shiel, 4 x midfielders selected with 1st round picks, 1 x selected with a second rounder, 2 x KPF's.

Cripps, SPS, Shiel and the 4 as yet unnamed midfielders make that 7 mids drafted with 1st rounders.

Fisher, Cuningham and the Mid selected with 2019's 2nd round pick make it 3 mids selected with second rounders.

Ten midfielders aged between 26 and 18 ready to go for the window 2020-2025.





Who really cares if Gibbs leaves this year and Simpson retires? Williamson slots straight in for Simpson. We arent winning the flag next year or the year after, and between Murphy, Cripps, E Curnow, SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, Graham, Smedts, (player selected this year at pick 17 for Gibbs), (player selected at pick 19 for Kruezer), Pickett, Polson and Kerridge, Im sure we'll manage to treat water at the very least.

Thats the exact same midfield as this year, just with Gibbs taken out, and two players taken in the top 20 of the draft put back in, plus a Cripps with a full preseason, and SPS with a years senior footy in his legs.



Dont put words in my mouth that I didnt say. You're better than that.

I said If a free agency offer comes in for Kruezer in the 2 million over 3 years mark, we would have to look long and hard to match it, and I reckon at that price point (considering Kruezers injury history) and the fact its likely to attract band 2 Compo at the very least (and possibly band 1 compo) we would likely wave goodbye to Matthew rather than match it. Thats a very different thing to me 'wanting to get rid of him'.

I understand what your saying however the risk is a KPP may not turn out like you hoped. Mcartin, Boyd, Moore are all high selections who have struggled and been in the system a few years. If we trade out Kreuzer who will be our ruck?

 

[BigFrizz36]

The weirdest thing is many on here who are adamant we shouldn't be drafting a key forward, would be totally OK with doing so next year for Ben Silvagni (assuming he both makes the draft, and attracts a first round bid on merit).

Im OK with drafting Ben next year (and if there was some evidence that he might turn into that 60 goal CHF we desperately need I'd shut the **** up about drafting a KPF this year and agree we should smash mids, mids and only mids, pick up Ben next year and be done with it).

Its just I would give my left nut for a 60+ goal CHF, coming into his prime circa 2020 when we are starting to challenge (plus a second and third tall marking forward kicking 40+ each). This releases a 23 year old Weitering to Full back, with support from a 24 year old Marchbank and Plowman, a 26 year old Docherty and a 22 year old Williamson.

That backline is multiple AA quality, and the best we've had since Dean, Christou, Silvagni, Hanna, McKay.

This fixation on mids this year to the exclusion of both a Ruck and a KPF (two huge holes on our list in key areas) is wierding me out.

the whole ben silvagni thing may amount to nothing and is a long way off but what list manager would bid a high draft pick on ben in the knowledge that there was a chance that carlton dont match. surely after 2 years he heads back to carlton and said list manager is out of a job on the basis of pig headedness. wont be sos decision regarding ben but the gibbs non trade has indicated to all and sundry that we wont be pushed around.

 

[Malifice]

If it's all about picks for you and you just consider football to be a business now, then you have lost the picture that football is tribal and fans are going to be romantics about certain players. It's why people go out and get certain players numbers put on the backs of their jumpers. It's why they join the cheer squad and go in with a banner dedicated to their favourite player. Kids play with their mates in the street or down the park pretending to be their favourite players.

It's why there is a video from a few years back of a young Carlton supporter responding with the names of the players when her daddy calls out the number (and says the nicknames of some of them instead of their surnames).

It's never just about the picks! It's about the passion of the supporters and the players and the club last of all.

And it's why we hate Collingwood, Essendon and Richmond with a passion!

Im well aware people are irrational when it comes to the players mate (It was ****ing weird watching Essendon supporters circled the wagons around their players and coaches who doped, or when a team goes to shit and its always the coaches fault and never the actual dudes playing the game who could be responsible).

All I am suggesting is we do what is we draft a KPF this year (should one be available and he be equal in talent to other options at that same level and the recruiters feel he can develop into a Hawkins style CHF).

If its down to 30 touch midfielder, or 60 goal CHF, we go the latter.

Re: trading dudes out, I'm only suggesting that there is a certain point that we let Casboult and/or Kruzeer leave (and if they want to go, there is nothing we can do to stop them in any event seeing as they are unrestricted free agents). Weve shown time and time again (with Touhy, last time with Casboult and last time with Kruezer) that we play hardball with contracts and wont pay overs. I'm not saying we push them out the door; only that we would be foolish matching 3 year deals for either player for big money, particularly if the money on offer is good enough to get us Band 1 compensation (which is entirely possible with the season that Kruezer is having to date).

I reckon around 2 years at 900 is the highest we would go for MK, and 700 for 2 years for Cas (maybe more if he really storms home). Levi is playing for his career this year and it shows.

If Kruezer has a gun year (keeps racking up coaches votes) he'll attract a sizeable offer from other clubs. We're not the only ones that recognize his impact around the contest and just how much of a moneyball player he could be to the right side in contention at the moment.

 

[Benaly28]

Someone, can't remember who, directed me to take a look at draft prospect Cam Rayner a little while back. I think he's exactly the kind of player we should look at with our first pick this year. Reminds me a bit of Taranto, being a definite midfield prospect who could do good work up forward in his first season or two before transitioning on-ball.

Absolute jet exactly what we need.

 

[Metalcrusher]

How on earth is drafting a CHF (a position held down by a 27 year old Levi Casboult at the moment) 'wasting' a high pick.

We've drafted one key forward with a high (top 10) pick in in 12 years (McKay). The last key forward we drafted before him with a top 10 pick was Josh frigging Kennedy. I dont consider C Curnow a Key Forward.

Last year we drafted a Mid with picks 1 and 2 (SPS and Fisher), a flanker with Williamson, a Key Defender with Macreadie, another mid with Polson, and then a FF in Kerr with a speculative late pick.

The way I see it we have 3 x 1sts and 2 x 2nd round picks left to get the list in order by 2020. We'll likely get an end of first round pick (assume Casboult kicks 40-50 this year, attracts an offer of 1.5 million for 3 years, and we get band 2 Compo) and Adelaides 1st rounder (assume Gibbs leaves this time) to play with also. Over these three years, we should be able to attract a Free agent (likely end of 2019. For this example Im going to use Dyaln Shiel as that singular F/A.

2017 1st [KPP]
Adelaides 2017 1st - pick 17 [Mid]
2017 pick 19 [Mid]
2018 1st [Mid]
2018 2nd [Used to match BSOS bid]
2019 1st [Mid]
2020 2nd [Mid]
Dyan Shiel [Mid]

There you go. Cripps, SPS, Dylan Shiel, 4 x midfielders selected with 1st round picks, 1 x selected with a second rounder, 2 x KPF's.

Cripps, SPS, Shiel and the 4 as yet unnamed midfielders make that 7 mids drafted with 1st rounders.

Fisher, Cuningham and the Mid selected with 2019's 2nd round pick make it 3 mids selected with second rounders.

Ten midfielders aged between 26 and 18 ready to go for the window 2020-2025.





Who really cares if Gibbs leaves this year and Simpson retires? Williamson slots straight in for Simpson. We arent winning the flag next year or the year after, and between Murphy, Cripps, E Curnow, SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, Graham, Smedts, (player selected this year at pick 17 for Gibbs), (player selected at pick 19 for Kruezer), Pickett, Polson and Kerridge, Im sure we'll manage to treat water at the very least.

Thats the exact same midfield as this year, just with Gibbs taken out, and two players taken in the top 20 of the draft put back in, plus a Cripps with a full preseason, and SPS with a years senior footy in his legs.



Dont put words in my mouth that I didnt say. You're better than that.

I said If a free agency offer comes in for Kruezer in the 2 million over 3 years mark, we would have to look long and hard to match it, and I reckon at that price point (considering Kruezers injury history) and the fact its likely to attract band 2 Compo at the very least (and possibly band 1 compo) we would likely wave goodbye to Matthew rather than match it. Thats a very different thing to me 'wanting to get rid of him'.

Jeez Mal ....

Why don't we FA a CHF/FF instead then draft mids?

 

[Blue__Balls]

Jeez Mal ....

Why don't we FA a CFH/FF instead then draft mids?

Come on man, it's been covered already. More mids on the market every year, therefore easier to secure one compared to a KPF who will have a dozen suitors.

 

[Metalcrusher]

The reason I say the above is because .. yes ... forwards take more time to learn their craft so why not utilise some other club to develop them then we swing in and snaffle them ... you get a good look at them before you invest ...

 

[Metalcrusher]

Come on man, it's been covered already. More mids on the market every year, therefore easier to secure one compared to a KPF who will have a dozen suitors.

Ok .... mal has just spent the last 9 gazillion words and posts explaining the probability of success if not in the top 10 draftees taken ....

So why no use FA to our advantage to net a AFL ready with a track record CHF/FF?

NO GUN PLAYER IS CHEAP .... mid defender or otherwise.


For example both Cameron and Patton ore out of contract in 2020 ..... just saying .... plenty out there.

Lynch comes out in 2018.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Bulldogs just won a flag with their leading goalkicker being Jake Stringer with 42.

 

[Malifice]

I understand what your saying however the risk is a KPP may not turn out like you hoped.

Thats a risk you take with every draftee including mids. Kane Lucas, Trengrove, Masten, Aish, Tambling, Morabito, Melksham etc.

Mcartin, Boyd, Moore are all high selections who have struggled and been in the system a few years. If we trade out Kreuzer who will be our ruck?

You're being way too harsh on McCartin and Boyd. Key position players need several years to come good. We drafted Kennedy in 2005 and he didnt start performing till 4 years later, and didn't become that 60 goal a season Key forward till 6 years later on (admittedly he was injured in his 5th year). Hawkins followed the same trajectory with a quiet opening 4 years/ 80 games and then exploding. Tom Lynch also (4 years to reach 40 goals, 6 years to reach 60). Took Nick Riewoldt around 4 years as well.

Its pretty much conventional wisdom that these blokes need 4 years of development to come good. McCartin Im not sold on (Petracca was the better choice at that pick, and I would take Petracca over McCartin), but Boyd will come good in a season or two.

He reminds me of a Tom Hawkins who looked all out at sea for 4 years and then just went bang. He's no Jack Watts.

Also, Im not advocating trading out Kruezer. He's an unrestricted free agent. Its a case of him getting an offer (the Dogs would be keen as it lets Boyd play forward, and gives them a forward line of Kruezer when he's down there, Boyd, Stringer and the Bont) and then accepting it. There is nothing we can do about it; even if we were to match it, he can leave regardless (he's unrestricted) and sign with them.

The question is, if MK has a ripper of a year, racks up coaches votes and gets an offer in the vicinity of 600k per season for 3 (1.8-2 million dollar 3 year deal), do we even try to match it in order to retain him? That kind of money gets as a Band 2 (pick 19) or maybe even Band 1 (the pick directly after our 1st rounder) as compensation.

Ditto Levi. Hes also an unrestricted F/A. He kicks 40-50 goals and clubs are going to come a knocking.

KPF and Rucks come at a premium.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Crikey Mal, haven't a clue what you're on about tonight.

 

[Malifice]

Jeez Mal ....

Why don't we FA a CHF/FF instead then draft mids?

Because 60 goal a season elite CHF/FF are rare as hens teeth, while elite mids are a dime a dozen.

Look back over the past three years (including this year). Boyd, Dixon and McCarthy are the three key forwards on the market (and one of them only because he got homesick and walked out on his club). Boyd and McCarthy have shown **** all at present (Grand final excepted!). Dixon is s gun.

Now compare that to the mids on the market over the past 3 years. Fyfe, Martin, Kelly, Dangerfield, Gibbs, Treloar, Prestia, JOM, Mitchell, Mitchell.

There are 3 times as many elite mids as there are elite CHF/FFs out there. Consequently there are more on the market each year (the ratio is pretty steady at 3 mids to 1 power forward over the last few years) and the mids are easier to get.

The elite forwards need things like ridiculous 9 year 10 million dollar deals, or 1 million a season in their second year, trading out your captain, first round draft pick and second rounder for and shit like that.

TL;DR - there are 3 times more F/A elite mids than there are elite forwards in the market.

 

[Malifice]

Crikey Mal, haven't a clue what you're on about tonight.

Ive started walking again after 7 weeks in the wheelchair. So bulk pain and now Im back in it again.

They've got me on some pretty good drugs, and Im going stir crazy at home.

Its a combination of boredom, agitation and a heavey dose of Tramadol and Lyrica.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Im well aware people are irrational when it comes to the players mate (It was ******* weird watching Essendon supporters circled the wagons around their players and coaches who doped, or when a team goes to shit and its always the coaches fault and never the actual dudes playing the game who could be responsible).

All I am suggesting is we do what is we draft a KPF this year (should one be available and he be equal in talent to other options at that same level and the recruiters feel he can develop into a Hawkins style CHF).

If its down to 30 touch midfielder, or 60 goal CHF, we go the latter.

Re: trading dudes out, I'm only suggesting that there is a certain point that we let Casboult and/or Kruzeer leave (and if they want to go, there is nothing we can do to stop them in any event seeing as they are unrestricted free agents). Weve shown time and time again (with Touhy, last time with Casboult and last time with Kruezer) that we play hardball with contracts and wont pay overs. I'm not saying we push them out the door; only that we would be foolish matching 3 year deals for either player for big money, particularly if the money on offer is good enough to get us Band 1 compensation (which is entirely possible with the season that Kruezer is having to date).

I reckon around 2 years at 900 is the highest we would go for MK, and 700 for 2 years for Cas (maybe more if he really storms home). Levi is playing for his career this year and it shows.

If Kruezer has a gun year (keeps racking up coaches votes) he'll attract a sizeable offer from other clubs. We're not the only ones that recognize his impact around the contest and just how much of a moneyball player he could be to the right side in contention at the moment.

still think that your economics is way way out. first of all each player will get about 20% increase due to the increased cap. salary for the average afl player is set to be $368,000 in 2018 and you are saying we should offer kreuzer $450k a year for 2 years and levi $350k a year for two years (yes less than the average players salary).
however rough calculations would suggest that we would have over $3.5 million unused salary cap space next year (goes up over $2mill + $1mill assuming we haven't paid the whole 100% this year + $400k that daisy goes down by.
your offers would be an insult to both players both in terms of the amount offered and the lengths of contract. both would leave and our rebuild would be set back by having to wait to see whether the kpf you draft to replace levi is any good and by having a one dimensional ruckman like soldo leading our ruck department.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Ok .... mal has just spent the last 9 gazillion words and posts explaining the probability of success if not in the top 10 draftees taken ....

So why no use FA to our advantage to net a AFL ready with a track record CHF/FF?

NO GUN PLAYER IS CHEAP .... mid defender or otherwise.


For example both Cameron and Patton ore out of contract in 2020 ..... just saying .... plenty out there.

Lynch comes out in 2018.

So Cameron, Patton and Lynch over the next three years. One per year. That assumes they want to leave their current clubs, and that they want to come to us. We *might* get one of them, if we're lucky. And if we've drafted mids, McKay stalls, and we don't get one of the FA key forwards...?

Using one draft pick on a talented young key forward is a good investment. If McKay comes on, we draft a gun CHF, and then BSOS turns out to be the greatest forward to ever play the game, then we have currency to trade out and sustain our recruiting, just like GWS have done. If any one of those players is a bust, we still have two quality forwards to build around.