Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Hawkins was a 2nd forward for his first five years, averaging way more than a goal a game from day one. Much better in that time given Kennedy's initial three and a half years (which we arguably stunted).

If we stunted JKs progress, what do you call what Brisbane are doing to Schache

 

[Blueballs38]

Wholeheartedly agree.

It's why I get a little frustrated when I see the optimists in here suggesting a finals finish this year or next, or people suggesting that we go all out, and make a play for Fyfe. The worst thing you can do in the rebuild is rush it. We need a patient and methodical approach. List management needs to forecast three or four years into the future and not be thinking about this year or even the next.

Going hard at midfielders this year will eat up all of our early draft picks. From a 'forecasting into the future' perspective, I'm deeply concerned about the state of our key forward stocks. All of our eggs are in the one (Mckay) basket at present. If he doesn't make it, that seriously hurts our chances of a premiership over the next 10 years.

I know I'm alone here but I would love to target a young gun key forward. I prioritise this over a midfielder. If we are short a midfielder or two come 2020 than we can always get one or two in as free agents (Dylan Shiel will be available in 2020). Every year there are three or four A grade or elite midfielders available as free agents. Key marking forwards however are rare as hens teeth.

I would hate to finish the rebuild with a elite backline and a gun midfield, but no tall marking power forwards and the same problems we've been experiencing since Fevola left.

View attachment 368882

The House Silvagni built hehe

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Wright, Pickett, Sumner, Fisher, Polson, LeBois, Gallucci, Lamb.

Yep that's not a very good list. Would grab a small forwards or two with late picks / rookie

 

[Blue__Balls]

Yes, that's what I'm clearly saying. They take time so why just wait?
We're already waiting on Harry McKay. How many are we going to sit on and wait?

Target the KPF you want now for '18/'19 and make sure that everything is in place to afford him....love him now...do what you have to do and in the meantime?.......build the midfield into a powerhouse so that they have something to kick to when all the pieces are in place. Easy

Like GWS targeted Buddy...?

I'm all for sweet talking a Jon Patton type now and laying some groundwork for a potential FA recruitment, but we can't let our draft strategy be dictated by a possible free agency signing that's still 2-3 years away. If it falls through then we've shot ourselves in the foot.

I'd happily add one more KPF through the draft, first round would be great, but second round is OK too if one slides a little. We don't need a Tom Lynch, we just need insurance in case McKay stagnates, or requests a trade, or we can't get one of the elite KPF free agents to sign on. Every list needs a little bit of redundancy, especially in the key posts because they can hurt you the most if things go south.

If we don't like the talls this year though, screw 'em and draft the mids. You don't want to lower your standards just to fill a structural gap, we've seen enough of that at Carlton in recent years.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Wright, Pickett, Sumner, Fisher, Polson, LeBois, Gallucci, Lamb.

OK.

Need to replace Wright long-term, and he's versatile enough that he could be moved into a VFL midfield mentor role in the next few seasons if we play our cards right.

Pickett's not a small forward in the way he plays. Half-back/midfield/wing certainly, but he's not enough of a threat at the base of a pack.

Sumner, like Pickett, isn't really a true small forward. He kicked 8 goals from 16 games last season, and hasn't been seen since.

Fisher is a midfielder in a small forward's body. Will develop a bit up forward but spend more and more time in the guts as he goes.

Polson also an undersized mid, not a small forward at all.

Gallucci has shown some really good signs in the VFL so far, but needs to string together a run of form and crack the seniors before we can make a proper call.

Lamb good for about a goal a game, which is OK, but he went through two other clubs on his way to us and doesn't seem to be in the mix this year.

Lebois is the one I have real hope for, but at this stage there's nothing to back up that hope.

We've got a bit to work with, if we choose to persist - but I wouldn't be against taking another rookie small forward with real goal sense if one is there.

 

[Arr0w]

Given this years draft pool, I would be very surprised if we didn't take a KPP within the first 2 rounds. Unless we are very active during the trade period

 

[DollarsandSense]

For those looking to move on Casbault, you can look across at the Pies and check out how trading Cloke has helped D Moore progress.

Seriously inept analysis in wanting to trade Casbault.

Anyone look closely at Moore's face last week as he played. Failure was ingrained on it. Lack of confidence as the pressure has built up so high as a sole target.

THIS...

 

[HARKER]

THIS...

Not quite as Levi can easily move himself on.

He doesn't really want to leave but if some crazy money and terms get waved around, what do you think may happen?

 

[rog1995]

Wright, Pickett, Sumner, Fisher, Polson, LeBois, Gallucci, Lamb.

OK.


Boyd? Redpath?

Redpa

Like GWS targeted Buddy...?

I'm all for sweet talking a Jon Patton type now and laying some groundwork for a potential FA recruitment, but we can't let our draft strategy be dictated by a possible free agency signing that's still 2-3 years away. If it falls through then we've shot ourselves in the foot.

I'd happily add one more KPF through the draft, first round would be great, but second round is OK too if one slides a little. We don't need a Tom Lynch, we just need insurance in case McKay stagnates, or requests a trade, or we can't get one of the elite KPF free agents to sign on. Every list needs a little bit of redundancy, especially in the key posts because they can hurt you the most if things go south.

If we don't like the talls this year though, screw 'em and draft the mids. You don't want to lower your standards just to fill a structural gap, we've seen enough of that at Carlton in recent years.

How many flags have Sydney won since they have Buddy, Tippett and Reid?
KPF need to have great mids for supply.
Bulldogs won the flag on the back of Boyd and Redpath alternating Rucks. The rest were all smaller mids/forward running types.
Hawks dominated with only Rough head as there KPF. The rest were flankers and running types.
West coast have J.Kennedy and Darling and haven't won a flag either.

 

[DollarsandSense]

Not quite as Levi can easily move himself on.

He doesn't really want to leave but if some crazy money and terms get waved around, what do you think may happen?

true - he could pack up and take off chasing the $. it's been mentioned before that he supported Carlton, and by the way he and the rest of the team is travelling and the progression that the group is taking, the chance of him moving on voluntarily is minimal.
If I was a player out there, looking to move on, anywhere, Carlton would surely be high up on the list. This club is going places....quickly too. we'll (with the growing talent on our list and with Bolts) soon be that destination club that everyone wants to come to.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Not quite as Levi can easily move himself on.

He doesn't really want to leave but if some crazy money and terms get waved around, what do you think may happen?

Id think he'd want to stay . Most players do when coming into FA unless a ridiculous offer comes along re Mayne Wells . I doubt very much Casboult will be offered crazy money . Cas is showing some good form but lets be honest that form could also disappear as easily then come again . But given the importance he has to our young developing forwardline that should only improve given a midfield bolstering , id expect the club to match offers he may receive which has him staying .

 

[HARKER]

Id think he'd want to stay . Most players do when coming into FA unless a ridiculous offer comes along re Mayne Wells . I doubt very much Casboult will be offered crazy money . Cas is showing some good form but lets be honest that form could also disappear as easily then come again . But given the importance he has to our young developing forwardline that should only improve given a midfield bolstering , id expect the club to match offers he may receive which has him staying .

Tuohy wanted to stay, also.

By crazy money, I mean more than we're prepared to offer and it's not just the money but the term.
If a band two is achievable, SOS may not be the type to get all sentimental.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Tuohy wanted to stay, also.

By crazy money, I mean more than we're prepared to offer and it's not just the money but the term.
If a band two is achievable, SOS may not be the type to get all sentimental.

Sos clearly thought Tuohy was expendible . Wouldnt make sense to lowball Casboult given his importance to our structure and developing young forwards . And as i mentioned dont think massive offers will be forthcoming unless your collingwood of course . Lets wait and see he has to continue this form anyway which isnt easy in a lower ranked developing side with major midfield deficiences .

 

[Foucault1989]

I would keep Levi. I'm ok with admitting that I was pro him leaving via FA but I have changed my mind as the role he will play to shield the kids is somewhat difficult to quantify. At best we would get a 2nd round pick for him. I'd rather keep him for now.

 

[HARKER]

Sos clearly thought Tuohy was expendible . Wouldnt make sense to lowball Casboult given his importance to our structure and developing young forwards . And as i mentioned dont think massive offers will be forthcoming unless your collingwood of course . Lets wait and see he has to continue this form anyway which isnt easy in a lower ranked developing side with major midfield deficiences .

We low-balled him last year and he accepted......a one year contract.
This wasn't a mistake. It was by design and we'll see the outcome of that design later in the year.

Have to say though, Levi has been much better this year, so far.

 

[Iamcarlton]

We low-balled him last year and he accepted......a one year contract.
This wasn't a mistake. It was by design and we'll see the outcome of that design later in the year.

Have to say though, Levi has been much better this year, so far.

No we didnt lowball him he had a very ordinary year and as a consequence thats the contract he received . Didnt deserve more than he got . That changes significantly if he continues this form for the year . Reward for effort and performance .

 

[Jimmae]

Yep that's not a very good list. Would grab a small forwards or two with late picks / rookie

The problem there is we've already got too many guys who can play that role deep or off HF. Gallucci, Lamb and Armfield are probably gone at the end of this year, and Sumner will hopefully score another year.

Way bigger issue with quick and agile players at the other end of the ground. How many backups to a position do you want to have?

Need to replace Wright long-term, and he's versatile enough that he could be moved into a VFL midfield mentor role in the next few seasons if we play our cards right.

OK, but he's 27, not 30.

Pickett's not a small forward in the way he plays. Half-back/midfield/wing certainly, but he's not enough of a threat at the base of a pack.

Sumner, like Pickett, isn't really a true small forward. He kicked 8 goals from 16 games last season, and hasn't been seen since.

Both will play off HF/FP and rotate in if they make it. They will spend plenty of time as small forwards.

Fisher is a midfielder in a small forward's body. Will develop a bit up forward but spend more and more time in the guts as he goes.

Polson also an undersized mid, not a small forward at all.

Ditto for these two, or do you reckon they'll never rotate through there??

Gallucci has shown some really good signs in the VFL so far, but needs to string together a run of form and crack the seniors before we can make a proper call.

Lamb good for about a goal a game, which is OK, but he went through two other clubs on his way to us and doesn't seem to be in the mix this year.

See above.

Lebois is the one I have real hope for, but at this stage there's nothing to back up that hope.

We've got a bit to work with, if we choose to persist - but I wouldn't be against taking another rookie small forward with real goal sense if one is there.

We need to trim our small forward contingent right now (I didn't even include Armfield, and Buckley is playing defence out of necessity).

I would keep Levi. I'm ok with admitting that I was pro him leaving via FA but I have changed my mind as the role he will play to shield the kids is somewhat difficult to quantify. At best we would get a 2nd round pick for him. I'd rather keep him for now.

I'd still take the top 30 pick, and I don't see anything short of a 40 goal season changing that.

 

[Keyza]

Thats the thing weve been losing qualty players for whatever reason for years . If we want to be a destination club again players that play well need to be rewarded not traded .
If the go home factor takes Gibbs then so be it and leave it at that we must hold onto Kruz and Cas if this happens even if it means paying overs . Destination club means more quality from other clubs coming in than going out . Culture of reward for effort is much more important than a second round pick for Kruezer or Casboult .

Spot on. The exodus of players has to stop. Having Kreuzer and Casboult on our list is worth more than some draft picks.

 

[BigFrizz36]

According to the players' collective bargaining agreement, which is entering its final year, first-round draftees receive a base of $74,740 in their first season and $3660 a match.

Players taken in the second round of the draft are employed on a base of $67,935, and all other players from the third round down to pre-season selections are on a $64,395 base.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-11-24/how-much-does-an-afl-draft-pick-earn

There are 40 players on our senior list, 4 rookies and 2 Cat B rookies. If we're paying 'at least' 400k for each player in the best 22 thats 'at least' 9 million dollars. Its leaving 3 million dollars for the 24 other listed players (taking into account the CBA thats pushing the 12 million dollar mark if those 24 are all on 1st year recruit wages of 100k per year.

My only point was that just because the Salary cap increases, player contracts will remain the same.

If you singed a 3 year deal last year for 450k per annum, then you earn 450k per annum. Just because the cap has increased, doesnt mean the club will suddenly start paying its players more than what they are contracted for.

Those figures you are citing are too high:

"In 2014, the AFL annual report showed that six per cent of AFL players (which includes those under 25 and therefore not part of the sample relevant to compensation) earned more than $600,000. However, the figure needed to earn a first-round pick would be different this year."

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...-to-earn-firstround-free-agency-compensation-

Three years ago in 2014, the top 5 percent of players were earning just over 600k per annum. It wont have increased that much to now.

I dont think you get that the extra 20 percent from the CBA wont be used up straight away. Some will be used up to sign those players who have been holding out for the CBA to be resolved. Some will be used over the next 12 months as old contracts expire. Some will be used at the end of the year for F/A.

Clubs will also seek to re-negotiate existing contracts with players adding an extra year in exchange for a frontloaded sum in 2017) (we will probably be doing a fair bit of this).



Source for those figures?



Dude, you are not listening to me. Its out of our hands. He is an unrestricted free agent (meaning it doesnt matter if we match the offer). Matching it only gives him incentive to stay (presuming he wants to).

And to be honest, if an offer came in for 650+ for 3 years (2 million over 3 years) I wouldnt want us to. Id rather take the band 2 (maybe band 1) compensation, grab an 18 year old in the top 20 of the draft, play Phillips for a few years while we find a quality young ruck elsewhere.

We need to replace him over the next 3-4 years anyway. Might as well get something in exchange for him now courtesy of the AFL.

every game that carlton plays is important to the future of the club and helps determine whether we are successful in the future. i dont go for the just play phillips in the ruck for a couple of years (surely you saw the port game) or the rebuild doesnt finish for another x amount of games rubbish. the dogs last year were horribly undermanned through injuries at times during the season but scratched and fought every game as if it was their last. ended up winning a flag a couple of years after everyone considered them hopeless. we have fallen for the stockpiling of draft picks trick before. doesn't work.
with matty k we have as much power as we want. simply sit him down mid year and say tganks mate you are doing a great job. we would like to offer you a 3 year contract at ?$ per year (good offer but less than he could achieve elsewhere). he signs and is nonlonger a free agent. we have a media conference everyone says the blues are on the right track etc. worth far more to us than pick 19 (probably 23 after academy picks)
anyway dude (dont feel comfortable using that term but apparently its acceptable) thats my thoughts. a simple google search will give you an idea of salaries for mayne and vickery. i dont agree with your moneyball ideas and the vast majority dont believe that we need a high pick kpf. i believe that we are starting to show some character and that it us vital that we keep building on it.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Not quite as Levi can easily move himself on.

He doesn't really want to leave but if some crazy money and terms get waved around, what do you think may happen?

once again sit him down mid season make him a decent (but not stupid) offer and sign him up. then he is no longer a free agent. cap space is not an urgent issue to us but the trick is the contact term.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Spot on. The exodus of players has to stop. Having Kreuzer and Casboult on our list is worth more than some draft picks.

In particular Kruezer his efforts for a big man are amazing and i would think inspiring to his team mates . I was of the opinion last year that it may be better for him and the club to part ways . But Gibbs almost leaving changed that opinion on Kruezer . He's shown again playing as the only genuine ruckman in the side and being fit what he can do . We must as you said stop this exodus of quality players out of our club .

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

In particular Kruezer his efforts for a big man are amazing and i would think inspiring to his team mates . I was of the opinion last year that it may be better for him and the club to part ways . But Gibbs almost leaving changed that opinion on Kruezer . He's shown again playing as the only genuine ruckman in the side and being fit what he can do . We must as you said stop this exodus of quality players out of our club .

This is the key, staying fit. Looking at his history its a 50/50 call. not including 2017, in his previous 9 years has only got to the 20 games a season mark in 4 out 9 seasons. In 4 out of 9 seasons he has played 13 games or less. And 17 games in the other season. If we can receive a band 2 compo for him I'm happy for him to leave, I'm not convinced that our future hinges on his presence going forwards.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Ruckmen do not usually come good until late in there 20's and Kruezer is just starting to blossom.

He ******* Stays!!!

Loves the club and the supporters love him!

 

[BigFrizz36]

This is the key, staying fit. Looking at his history its a 50/50 call. not including 2017, in his previous 9 years has only got to the 20 games a season mark in 4 out 9 seasons. In 4 out of 9 seasons he has played 13 games or less. And 17 games in the other season. If we can receive a band 2 compo for him I'm happy for him to leave, I'm not convinced that our future hinges on his presence going forwards.

but the pick that we get for him could be used on the next nathan freeman who barely plays a game due to injury.

 

[Iamcarlton]

This is the key, staying fit. Looking at his history its a 50/50 call. not including 2017, in his previous 9 years has only got to the 20 games a season mark in 4 out 9 seasons. In 4 out of 9 seasons he has played 13 games or less. And 17 games in the other season. If we can receive a band 2 compo for him I'm happy for him to leave, I'm not convinced that our future hinges on his presence going forwards.

Correct he may not be in our next successful era and yes hes not the be all and end all to our fortunes . But i defy anybody to convince me that losing a Kruezer yet another quality player heading out the doors of the CFC is good for our future . Picks and players mean nothing if the culture of the place stinks . Correct me if im wrong but arent we wanting to be a destination club again ? This bloke plays with heart and soul every time he goes on the ground that cannot be undervalued . Losing Kruezer types imo does more damage to the culture of a club than the benefits of any compensation received for his services .