Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[TerryWallet]

Ain't that the truth. I still remember fearing those Silvagni to Melbourne rumors from back in the day. They had much more legs than Braddles and Sticks returning to SA ever did. SOS could leverage his value like nobody else. This was back before player agents truly ruled the roost though Nixon was up and about.

Heard SOS and Kevin Hall had a huge falling out over contract negotiations. SOS has ice going thru his veins. On and off field.

 

[Arr0w]

Alternatively, you could get bloody lucky like the Dogs and Cats did with father-son recruitment. It can't happen nearly as easily as what it did for them but it can still happen.

We'll at least have Jack and Ben. Is there anyone else that we're possibly going after?

A few names being mentioned, but way to early at this stage.

Would be happy to target Steven May, for the right price. Not only is he a tough KPD, a very accomplished KPF

 

[Wickzki]

A few names being mentioned, but way to early at this stage.

Would be happy to target Steven May, for the right price. Not only is he a tough KPD, a very accomplished KPF

We've been linked to their 'ay's for years now.

But I see us as a good chance of getting Lynch after next season. But I'm not one to put all our eggs in one basket.

 

[Wickzki]

Heard SOS and Kevin Hall had a huge falling out over contract negotiations. SOS has ice going thru his veins. On and off field.

Yep. That would be the same negotiations.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Would you guys be happy to trade pick #2-3 for Hopper & Kennedy/D Smith? I guess it depends how good this draft is at the top end, but atm i would do it.
2 talented young mids ready to contribute from day 1.

Is that too much in our favour? I think it's reasonable IF they both nominate us and GWS have their sights on someone at that pick.
They traded an awful lot to secure pick #2 to get Taranto last year.

For such a top pick there is a premium attached to it and GWS would probably prefer that than say, pick #12 for Hopper and #20 for Kennedy in separate deals...they don't need that, they want elite talent. Plus, from the midfield on the weekend, they still have Griffen, Coniglio & Setterfield waiting in the wings and Hopper didn't play...their midfield bats super deep.

Absolutely yes. Wouldn't even need to think about it.

 

[HARKER]

Absolutely yes. Wouldn't even need to think about it.

.......unless........a once in a generation talent will be there at our pick.

Fat chance that would be the case and if Hopper & Smith were up for our first this year (next year is better) then you'd likely do it.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

.......unless........a once in a generation talent will be there at our pick.

Fat chance that would be the case and if Hopper & Smith were up for our first this year (next year is better) then you'd likely do it.

I think so.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

But I see us as a good chance of getting Lynch after next season. But I'm not one to put all our eggs in one basket.

Why are we a good chance? You're getting me excited!

 

[Jimmae]

So we are both clear, Hawks rebuild started in 2004 when they got Buddy, Roughhead and Lewis. Yes they were lucky to win one in 2008 ahead of time, then taking another 6 years to win another one

You're genuinely going to sit here and tell me that the Hawks started their run for being successful in 2010 onwards at the end of 2004?

They didn't expect to win by 2008 early on in the Clarkson era, but they knew exactly what they were sitting on at the end of the 2007 season. They only made 3 draft selections, one of them Cyril and the last one a then 27-year old Dew. No trades, nothing fancy, just their standard picks after a finals finish.

As you are well aware, rebuilds, could take 3-6 years before making finals. Once you make the finals, premiership windows generally only last 5 years unless you are at the top of the tree with list management

Maybe in the Terry Wallace school of list mangling, where he floods the airways with empirically-observed figures laced with info that excuses his tenure at Richmond, but out in the real world we consider mitigating and promoting factors that may have influenced events.

The reality now is that rebuilds take 2-4 years depending on the state of the list and the current list management environment (concessions/establishment phases) and last maybe 4 in terms of being a premiership threat if your list stays relatively healthy.

Every list is going to have talent on it, every list is going to have duds. Every club is going to make mistakes, but there are moments where opportunity and circumstances offer you a chance to hit the accelerator, and we're in one of those right now.

The expansion period has made some clubs gun shy about the back end of the draft, and previously the Pies, Geelong and the Hawks, now us and the Dogs, are making great use of it. The GWS surplus of talent makes it easier to acquire partially-developed talent on a dime if you can absorb the odd misfire.

The next two off-seasons are super-important for the re-birth of this club, and I expect us to go really hard after that and push for top 4. Murphy and co should be around for that, and if we don't quite make it, we'll still have acquisition opportunities if we quickly identify the decent players that don't quite work for us and shuffle them on.

What's more, with the free agency change, there's an even bigger chance to top-up the senior core. You might see them as mercenaries, but not every free agency move necessarily winds up being a brilliant one for club and player.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

You're genuinely going to sit here and tell me that the Hawks started their run for being successful in 2010 onwards at the end of 2004?

They didn't expect to win by 2008 early on in the Clarkson era, but they knew exactly what they were sitting on at the end of the 2007 season. They only made 3 draft selections, one of them Cyril and the last one a then 27-year old Dew. No trades, nothing fancy, just their standard picks after a finals finish.


Maybe in the Terry Wallace school of list mangling, where he floods the airways with empirically-observed figures laced with info that excuses his tenure at Richmond, but out in the real world we consider mitigating and promoting factors that may have influenced events.

The reality now is that rebuilds take 2-4 years depending on the state of the list and the current list management environment (concessions/establishment phases) and last maybe 4 in terms of being a premiership threat if your list stays relatively healthy.

Every list is going to have talent on it, every list is going to have duds. Every club is going to make mistakes, but there are moments where opportunity and circumstances offer you a chance to hit the accelerator, and we're in one of those right now.

The expansion period has made some clubs gun shy about the back end of the draft, and previously the Pies, Geelong and the Hawks, now us and the Dogs, are making great use of it. The GWS surplus of talent makes it easier to acquire partially-developed talent on a dime if you can absorb the odd misfire.

The next two off-seasons are super-important for the re-birth of this club, and I expect us to go really hard after that and push for top 4. Murphy and co should be around for that, and if we don't quite make it, we'll still have acquisition opportunities if we quickly identify the decent players that don't quite work for us and shuffle them on.

What's more, with the free agency change, there's an even bigger chance to top-up the senior core. You might see them as mercenaries, but not every free agency move necessarily winds up being a brilliant one for club and player.

I really do think your timeline of top 4 and premiership tilts is a little skewiff TBH. I still only see us as bottom six next season.

 

[Jimmae]

I really do think your timeline of top 4 and premiership tilts is a little skewiff TBH. I still only see us as bottom six next season.

That's still perfectly possible, because it will come down to how we use free agency and trades this year.

I think there's an opportunity at the end of this year to use our future pick in a GWS trade to secure some talent, and then maybe raid free agency if we have a change of heart on a few names. We've got a kitty upwards of $3m to play around with, and salary cap concessions to burn due to our previous seasons at 95% TPP.

Maybe we'll just use that to absorb more silly contracts, but if we do hit up the FAs and trades in succession, next year will be about fine-tuning before having another crack at FAs, picking some finishing pieces and longer-term understudies then hitting the season hard. It's definitely the time to strike, and the view should be that it's not fool-hardy to do so.

GWS will definitely come to play, Adelaide will probably try to dick us, and the rest comes down to how competitive we look this season. So far, so good, and we might even somehow wind up with a top 3 pick to play with as well (though I suspect we'll use it rather than trade it).

 

[Keyza]

This afternoon on SEN the SA correspondent reported that West Coast are making a massive play for Adelaide's McGovern .
He sounded almost resigned to him leaving .
If he cost the Eagles their 1st rounder and they end up in the lower part of the 8 after finals which is possible with Kennedy going down , would that pick on traded to us for Gibbs satisfy Carlton ?

I doubt it. Carlton would want more than one first round pick for Gibbs. His performance on Sunday would not have gone unnoticed, he is more than a good player and worth more to us than one pick, especially as he is still contracted.

 

[Keyza]

Not sure why everyone thinks offering Kreuzer an above average contract will make him decide to stay. Players of his age bracket have moved for less coin than they were on/offered to chase premiership medals

Example - Brian Lake

And if he does move for success rather than money then any compensation to us will be nowhere near what he is worth.

 

[Keyza]

I like Kruezer like everyone else does .
Doesn't change the fact that he has a very battle scarred 29yo body and can just leave if he so chooses .
As the Menzel and Tuohy trades proved , Silvagni uses many different pieces to solve the puzzle during the trade period so nothing should be discounted .

Kreuzer turned 28 two weeks ago. Just entering his prime as a ruckman.

 

[Sector 7G]

I doubt it. Carlton would want more than one first round pick for Gibbs. His performance on Sunday would not have gone unnoticed, he is more than a good player and worth more to us than one pick, especially as he is still contracted.

I think SOS would want a top 10 pick or close to it in a shallow draft. Crows pick could be close to Pick 20 after academy players. Doubt that would interest him.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I think SOS would want a top 10 pick or close to it in a shallow draft. Crows pick could be close to Pick 20 after academy players. Doubt that would interest him.

Maybe it would if the Cameron talk a few days ago has any value. Cameron and their late first rounder seems pretty good to me.

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

There's things Barass knows he knows, things he knows he doesn't know, and, of course, things he doesn't know he doesn't know.

Does any of this knowledge involve the number 42?

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Kreuzer turned 28 two weeks ago. Just entering his prime as a ruckman.

That may be true but will his body hold up? Its a massive question mark given his history.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

That's still perfectly possible, because it will come down to how we use free agency and trades this year.

I think there's an opportunity at the end of this year to use our future pick in a GWS trade to secure some talent, and then maybe raid free agency if we have a change of heart on a few names. We've got a kitty upwards of $3m to play around with, and salary cap concessions to burn due to our previous seasons at 95% TPP.

Maybe we'll just use that to absorb more silly contracts, but if we do hit up the FAs and trades in succession, next year will be about fine-tuning before having another crack at FAs, picking some finishing pieces and longer-term understudies then hitting the season hard. It's definitely the time to strike, and the view should be that it's not fool-hardy to do so.

GWS will definitely come to play, Adelaide will probably try to dick us, and the rest comes down to how competitive we look this season. So far, so good, and we might even somehow wind up with a top 3 pick to play with as well (though I suspect we'll use it rather than trade it).

Id really be hoping we hold a big sum in 2018 and make a major play for GCS Tom Lynch, assuming he doesn't resign earlier.

 

[Arr0w]

You're genuinely going to sit here and tell me that the Hawks started their run for being successful in 2010 onwards at the end of 2004?

They didn't expect to win by 2008 early on in the Clarkson era, but they knew exactly what they were sitting on at the end of the 2007 season. They only made 3 draft selections, one of them Cyril and the last one a then 27-year old Dew. No trades, nothing fancy, just their standard picks after a finals finish.


Maybe in the Terry Wallace school of list mangling, where he floods the airways with empirically-observed figures laced with info that excuses his tenure at Richmond, but out in the real world we consider mitigating and promoting factors that may have influenced events.

The reality now is that rebuilds take 2-4 years depending on the state of the list and the current list management environment (concessions/establishment phases) and last maybe 4 in terms of being a premiership threat if your list stays relatively healthy.

Every list is going to have talent on it, every list is going to have duds. Every club is going to make mistakes, but there are moments where opportunity and circumstances offer you a chance to hit the accelerator, and we're in one of those right now.

The expansion period has made some clubs gun shy about the back end of the draft, and previously the Pies, Geelong and the Hawks, now us and the Dogs, are making great use of it. The GWS surplus of talent makes it easier to acquire partially-developed talent on a dime if you can absorb the odd misfire.

The next two off-seasons are super-important for the re-birth of this club, and I expect us to go really hard after that and push for top 4. Murphy and co should be around for that, and if we don't quite make it, we'll still have acquisition opportunities if we quickly identify the decent players that don't quite work for us and shuffle them on.

What's more, with the free agency change, there's an even bigger chance to top-up the senior core. You might see them as mercenaries, but not every free agency move necessarily winds up being a brilliant one for club and player.

You really need to take your Carlton hat off for just a moment.

Yes the Hawks started their rebuild in 2004 and you are kidding yourself if you think otherwise

A rebuild in 2 years? Show me the club that has achieved that?

All your statements are based on theory, just show me one piece of evidence to back up your theory

 

[Arr0w]

And if he does move for success rather than money then any compensation to us will be nowhere near what he is worth.

Exactly!! But as we have seen in the past, why wouldn't a trade be applicable, if it suits both clubs?

 

[Malifice]

Didn't answer the question champ

It doesnt effect existing contracts. Only new contracts entered into after the pay rise takes effect.

List managers have been expecting the rise for a few years though, and it's been mooted as 20 percent for some time now, so a lot of contracts may have factored in the new EBA.

Also; a ton of players have put off contracts till the new pay deal goes through. Once finalised managers will have a lot more wriggle room in nabbing an extra 100k or so for individual players.

We probably forked out a bit of cash last year extending Cripps and Weitering's contracts and throwing a fair chunk at Marchbank to move over. Thomas, Gibbs, Murphy and Docherty are costing us a fair chunk, and Kruezer wont be cheap either. We also had to agree to take on Palmers salary (350k or thereabouts) to get Marchbank on the cheap.

This year it'll be intresting if Gibbs and Kruezer leave. That will leave a massive black hole in the salary cap when coupled with Thomas' contract winding down and the cap increasing by 20 percent.

We need to resign the class of (McKay, Curnow) and it wouldnt surprise me if despite McKay not playing in the seniors yet, he'll probably get a few offers from rival clubs so we'll need to pay him a bit to keep him.

But yeah; even factoring in extending the contracts of the kids we have, we're left with a metric crapton of money spare.

 

[Red Bull]

I doubt it. Carlton would want more than one first round pick for Gibbs. His performance on Sunday would not have gone unnoticed, he is more than a good player and worth more to us than one pick, especially as he is still contracted.

If WC were to finish 8th , the pick would be 11 , about what we secured Charlie Curnow for .
If they finish 6th , the pick would be 13 , what we secured Cripps for .
Alternatively , the pick could be on traded for Hopper .
I think a pick in that vicinity is about right for a 29yo Gibbs .
You may want more , but doubt Adelaide will pay more .
Are we pining for Henderson , Menzel , Yarran etc ?
Probably better to get the deal done and get on with our future and those who want to be a part of it.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

It doesnt effect existing contracts. Only new contracts entered into after the pay rise takes effect.

List managers have been expecting the rise for a few years though, and it's been mooted as 20 percent for some time now, so a lot of contracts may have factored in the new EBA.

Also; a ton of players have put off contracts till the new pay deal goes through. Once finalised managers will have a lot more wriggle room in nabbing an extra 100k or so for individual players.

We probably forked out a bit of cash last year extending Cripps and Weitering's contracts and throwing a fair chunk at Marchbank to move over. Thomas, Gibbs, Murphy and Docherty are costing us a fair chunk, and Kruezer wont be cheap either. We also had to agree to take on Palmers salary (350k or thereabouts) to get Marchbank on the cheap.

This year it'll be intresting if Gibbs and Kruezer leave. That will leave a massive black hole in the salary cap when coupled with Thomas' contract winding down and the cap increasing by 20 percent.

We need to resign the class of (McKay, Curnow) and it wouldnt surprise me if despite McKay not playing in the seniors yet, he'll probably get a few offers from rival clubs so we'll need to pay him a bit to keep him.

But yeah; even factoring in extending the contracts of the kids we have, we're left with a metric crapton of money spare.

We do, but when you consider that we actually have almost half the list out of contract this year, before we trade and draft, it wont actually take a whole lot to use it up.

 

[Malifice]

We could always sign him up and then trade him.

It's a contract mate. Kruezer has to want to sign. We cant sign him up unilaterally.

At the end of the year, MK will get a sizeable free agency offer (3 or so years at 600+ per year, based on his current form, the EBA increase to the salary cap, and the fact he is a ruckman/forward and they are in demand). Likely from a team contending (Bulldogs most likely).

We can put a counter offer to him, but ultimately the choice is his if he leaves or not. I wouldnt begrudge him either way. We've gotten 10 years loyal service out of him, and this is his career we're talking about.

The offer will be large enough to be in the vicinity of Band 2 compensation (end of 1st round, or pick 19) with a very small chance of Band 1 (pick after our 1st round pick, probably pick 3-4) and worst case scenario Band 3 (pick after our 2nd round pick or pick 21-22).

Hes 28 years old. Our window doesnt open till 2020, so for Band 2 (pick 19) we would (and should) take the pick, thank him for his service and wish him the best at his new club.