2017 Trade and FA thread

[Carlos Danger]

Getting Cameron with pick 14 or 18 would be gold.
I think giving up 1 for Parish & pick 24 makes a lot of sense.
However that leaves us with pick 14 or 18 to get Ballenden, which wouldn't be enough?

That values parish at pick 3. Seems a lot to give up for a still to be proven player, who is out of contract whilst we hold #1 In the PSD

Also I can't remember the last time pick 1 was traded so I'm not sure why we would be so keen to do it without an amazing deal on the table

Edit - if I looked it up properly it was 2001 Freo traded it and others for Trent croad
Hawthorne then used those picks to get Hodge & Mitchell

 

[jasonrampage2010]

Don't necessarily think we need to build around him, but he would give harris great support. He could mentor harris and take the best defender. Unfortunately I think he'll be a sun next year

I wouldn't be playing him forward, we have too many KPF

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

I think any suggestion of trading pick 1 for Parish and a second round pick is probably overrating Parish and significantly underrating pick 1. There is too little evidence yet to assess Parish's potential and nothing concrete to indicate he might want to come to Brisbane to reunite with Matho. Quite obviously pick 1 has increased market value because, draft tampering aside, it is the only pick that guarantees a club its first choice player. That carries a significant premium that, if we were lucky/unlucky enough to secure pick 1, should be used on our own first choice and only traded for an offer that is too good to refuse. I wouldn't think Parish and some change is in that category.

 

[Nunez]

I think any suggestion of trading pick 1 for Parish and a second round pick is probably overrating Parish and significantly underrating pick 1. There is too little evidence yet to assess Parish's potential and nothing concrete to indicate he might want to come to Brisbane to reunite with Matho. Quite obviously pick 1 has increased market value because, draft tampering aside, it is the only pick that guarantees a club its first choice player. That carries a significant premium that, if we were lucky/unlucky enough to secure pick 1, should be used on our own first choice and only traded for an offer that is too good to refuse. I wouldn't think Parish and some change is in that category.

I suppose better way to look at it is comparing Parish to the players we rate in the top 3 as opposed to how we rate the pick in particular.

What I wouldn't mind is:

Trade: pick 1 for pick 3 and pick 21

Trade: pick 3 for Parish and Essendons second round pick

Straight pick one would need more than their second rounder, but I reckon not too much more. Parish is a gun already and he's only 20. He was a top 5 pick as well.

 

[Hollow Knight]

I suppose better way to look at it is comparing Parish to the players we rate in the top 3 as opposed to how we rate the pick in particular.

What I wouldn't mind is:

Trade: pick 1 for pick 3 and pick 21

Trade: pick 3 for Parish and Essendons second round pick

Straight pick one would need more than their second rounder, but I reckon not too much more. Parish is a gun already and he's only 20. He was a top 5 pick as well.

Yeah, and has 2 years of development under his belt in a good system.

 

[spotthedog1]

Anyone else not convinced Charlie Cameron is worth a first round pick? I'd like a bit of pace in the squad, and he fits our age profile, but if you asked me to pick between another Berry and Charlie Cameron, I'd take Berry. That's about what is being talked about for him. I'd have had him behind Christensen at the time of trade, who was looking like he may turn into a serious A grader.

The other side of the coin however is that he's developed well from humble beginnings (originally a rookie draft pick), and actually wants to come here. I just don't want us to overpay for a player just because he wants to come here.

 

[Nunez]

Anyone else not convinced Charlie Cameron is worth a first round pick? I'd like a bit of pace in the squad, and he fits our age profile, but if you asked me to pick between another Berry and Charlie Cameron, I'd take Berry. That's about what is being talked about for him. I'd have had him behind Christensen at the time of trade, who was looking like he may turn into a serious A grader.

The other side of the coin however is that he's developed well from humble beginnings (originally a rookie draft pick), and actually wants to come here. I just don't want us to overpay for a player just because he wants to come here.

I think he'll be ours with our second rounder. Ballenden will be our port pick. After academies it'll be worty around pick 20-22 so a good value trade for us.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Anyone else not convinced Charlie Cameron is worth a first round pick?

"First round pick" has a very wide value differential. So yeah, clearly he's not worth pick 1-10. Pick 17 might be slight overs but with how the Ballenden thing goes down, it might be one of those situations where we are better off trading a late first rounder for Cameron + some later picks for points.

I'm reaally finding it hard to get in a tizz about value discussions at this point. The academy stuff makes all the permutations impossible to grasp this far out, and Noble is a lot better at this stuff than any of us. I'm pretty relaxed that we will get a good result with what resources and opportunities are available.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Anyone else not convinced Charlie Cameron is worth a first round pick? I'd like a bit of pace in the squad, and he fits our age profile, but if you asked me to pick between another Berry and Charlie Cameron, I'd take Berry. That's about what is being talked about for him. I'd have had him behind Christensen at the time of trade, who was looking like he may turn into a serious A grader.

The other side of the coin however is that he's developed well from humble beginnings (originally a rookie draft pick), and actually wants to come here. I just don't want us to overpay for a player just because he wants to come here.

I reckon him & brad hill are pretty similar in value. Pick 23 last year. Might have to pay a bit more as he is contracted til 2018.

A lot of people on here are very generous traders, thank God they're not running the list management

As soon as one of our players want out they're worth bugger all & have devalued since the draft.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Last year we effectively traded picks 2 and 31 for 3 and 16. Difference is we were dealing with GWS, not Essendon/Carlton/Hawthorn.

 

[M Malice]

It all comes down to who is and whether they are a standout number 1, also if they are a KPF that would be great as it does not fit our needs. If it turns out to be someone like Brander or Hayes we will be in a good bargaining position.

On the other hand we could still avoid the spoon, I think it will come down to us or the Hawks, they have hit a massive wall with Mitchell and Lewis being traded Gibson cooked and Hodge also showing signs of being past it and O'Meara not playing.

 

[Flea_29]

Wow - not on this site for a week and all of a sudden Charlie Cameron is coming to us? Would be a huge get. Would certainly make out backmen feel much better not to chase his tail.
We currently have picks 1, 14 (PA), 18 & 44 (Coll) and I doubt very much we will be using any other picks - maybe one other to elevate Barrett.
I would assume that those 4 picks would be:
- Best Player in the draft (pick 1),
- Ballenden (Pick 14/18),
- player like CAMERON - that will add speed to the list (pick 18)
- ACADEMY player (pick 44).

 

[Fatcat08]

I reckon him & brad hill are pretty similar in value. Pick 23 last year. Might have to pay a bit more as he is contracted til 2018.

A lot of people on here are very generous traders, thank God they're not running the list management

As soon as one of our players want out they're worth bugger all & have devalued since the draft.

I think you're probably undervaluing the premium you pay for someone who's contracted a tad. Off the top of my head i'd place it on about a 20-30% premium if i were to value it. Of course you possibly may get a discount on that if the player in question is moving for genuine family reasons. Now if he was uncontracted then yes, some of the figures picks wise being thrown around would be on the high side for me, but if you're talking a guy who's contracted then using the Brad Hill comparison you're looking at 16-18 with a 20-30% reduction for contracts. The question is does Cameron equal Hill? Maybe not quite in terms of what they've done so far but then you look at the circumstances of the club they're coming from. You've got Hawthorn who had clearly acknowledged that they were going to have a list turnover and were seeking picks for other deals/ or to replace other picks, vs Adelaide who are firmly in premiership window and have a best 22 player who's contracted. They're 2 very different circumstances

Its a little more than just player a is better than b and the circumstances the clubs find themselves in makes a difference as well. Then you throw where we're projecting Ballenden to fall, and it throws another layer of complexity in there. I do agree with the sentiment of thank god none of us are running our list management, because with academy points now in play its thrown an even bigger layer of complexity over trades now.

 

[jackess]

Depends on the strength of the draft but I think 18 for Cameron is overs.

In the last 2 years he's kicked over 2 goals a game three times. The average winning margin in those games was 87 points.

I don't think he'll ever spend much time in the middle or down back.

If he was uncontracted I wouldn't give a pick in the top 30 for him.

 

[dlanod]

Wow - not on this site for a week and all of a sudden Charlie Cameron is coming to us? Would be a huge get. Would certainly make out backmen feel much better not to chase his tail.

Pretty sure he was coming last year too though, just to sprinkle a little rain.

 

[The Bear]

Wait for the trade period. GWS will have lots of early pics again. Same as it ever was.

 

[Carlos Danger]

I think you're probably undervaluing the premium you pay for someone who's contracted a tad. Off the top of my head i'd place it on about a 20-30% premium if i were to value it. Of course you possibly may get a discount on that if the player in question is moving for genuine family reasons. Now if he was uncontracted then yes, some of the figures picks wise being thrown around would be on the high side for me, but if you're talking a guy who's contracted then using the Brad Hill comparison you're looking at 16-18 with a 20-30% reduction for contracts. The question is does Cameron equal Hill? Maybe not quite in terms of what they've done so far but then you look at the circumstances of the club they're coming from. You've got Hawthorn who had clearly acknowledged that they were going to have a list turnover and were seeking picks for other deals/ or to replace other picks, vs Adelaide who are firmly in premiership window and have a best 22 player who's contracted. They're 2 very different circumstances

Its a little more than just player a is better than b and the circumstances the clubs find themselves in makes a difference as well. Then you throw where we're projecting Ballenden to fall, and it throws another layer of complexity in there. I do agree with the sentiment of thank god none of us are running our list management, because with academy points now in play its thrown an even bigger layer of complexity over trades now.

Hill was contracted and going home for compassionate reasons as well (pretty sure anyway - memory is not always the best). That's why I think it's a good comparison.

The list mgmt comment was just a friendly barb - agree with TBD comments that Noble is a seriously good operator glad he's running things now.

Ballenden does complicate things. If he's projected high then we may trade port pick but he seems to be sliding as does ports ladder position so I'm optimistic we will be able to use ports pick in anger. I wouldn't be giving it away when I'm sure we can secure something with 18 instead. Don't think it would be a deal breaker for the crows. They have proven ability to turn 15-40 picks into gold & might have bigger fish to fry anyway extracting Gibbs from carlton

 

[Dalions]

Pretty sure he was coming last year too though, just to sprinkle a little rain.

Are we just going off a bit of talk on the Adelaide board?
I cant see why we would stand any more of a chance this year when he is contracted. Than last year when he wasn't.
Other than the Noble connection. And he has spent a bit of time in Qld

 

[Milk Steak]

Depends on the strength of the draft but I think 18 for Cameron is overs.

In the last 2 years he's kicked over 2 goals a game three times. The average winning margin in those games was 87 points.

I don't think he'll ever spend much time in the middle or down back.

If he was uncontracted I wouldn't give a pick in the top 30 for him.

I don't watch every Crows game,but the ones I have watched would have me giving pick 18 for Cameron. His goal tallies aren't what make him a sought after player, it's his blistering speed which is very rare. Only a handful of players in the league have anything resembling the same.His ability to chase and run down players is amazing and would also give us the kind of breakaway speed that Jetta (when he was decent) gave Sydney which can break games open.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I'd have him as similar value to Christensen (pick21). A lot of similarities, both are/were good players in a good development program, similar age, Christensen better disposal is probably evened out by Charlie's better tackling and speed. Unsure what Christensen contract status was thou.

The Ballenden / ports situation will really dictate what we have available and potentially the best trade for both parties.

 

[Hollow Knight]

#NEED

 

[Harris Specter]

Are we just going off a bit of talk on the Adelaide board?
I cant see why we would stand any more of a chance this year when he is contracted. Than last year when he wasn't.
Other than the Noble connection. And he has spent a bit of time in Qld

Solid sources indicate otherwise.

 

[Carlos Danger]

I'd have him as similar value to Christensen (pick21). A lot of similarities, both are/were good players in a good development program, similar age, Christensen better disposal is probably evened out by Charlie's better tackling and speed. Unsure what Christensen contract status was thou.

The Ballenden / ports situation will really dictate what we have available and potentially the best trade for both parties.

Yeah good comparison, I think he was contracted

Crows also have father son Edwards to select this year. Think he projected in the 20s depending on who you follow.
So there might be a few pick swap opportunities come up between that , ballenden & Cameron trade.

Prob gonna be very hard to predict this far out, hasnt stoped us trying though, guess all the speculation is what happens when there no AFL match on for 2 days

 

[Dalions]

Solid sources indicate otherwise.

Solid sources saying he wants out?

 

[Eons]

Solid sources saying he wants out?

Family reasons apparently.