Resource 2018 AFL Draft Order

[Lore]

George Horlin-Smith (Geelong) to Gold Coast for pick 59

 

[GreyCrow]

And as quick as that the post is old 68 rumoured to be going to Richmond for Stengle

 

[Lore]

And as quick as that the post is old 68 rumoured to be going to Richmond for Stengle

Yep, waiting for it to drop officially. Maybe AFLHQ are having a lunch break...

 

[maanco]

How do you see Academy and Father Son Bids effecting the draft order?

 

[Lore]

Stengle (Richmond) to Adelaide for pick 68. That pick seems to be a bit of a hot potato this morning.

 

[Lore]

How do you see Academy and Father Son Bids effecting the draft order?

I think there are two this year that are predicted to go early in the draft, Nick Blakey (Swans Academy) and Tarryn Thomas (North Melbourne Academy). Neither of those clubs hold first round picks, but will match bids with the later picks that they have.

Going off the current draft order and Twomey's form rankings as a guide for what pick value they might be worth, here's how it would play out;

Twomey has Blakey ranked at 8 and Thomas at 11. Assuming they actually go at that point in the draft, pick 8 is worth 1551 points and required 1241 to match, while pick 11 is 1329 points and costs 1063 to match.

Sydney's first two picks are worth 1292 combined, so the first one of those will borrow points from the second to make it up to 1241 points and it'll move up to 8th, everyone else will move back a spot until 26th. The second pick would have 51 points left, and would slot in between 68 and 69 (so everything between 33 and 68 will move up one spot).

For North, their first three picks will be affected. 31 would move up to 11th, consuming all of the points from their second pick (42, which will slide to the end of the draft) and another 62 points from their third pick (48, which will slide back a few spots to 52).

Brisbane also have Connor McFadyen in their academy, they should be able to match him with their second round pick without too much trouble.

North also have Bailey Scott who has nominated them, Twomey rates him at 28th. The rest of the points they have left will go to him. If either of them go one or two spots later in the draft than Twomey has rated them, they'll come out even and I'd probably be happy with that if I was a North supporter. If they go as rated by Twomey though, then North could end up in deficit for 2019 by 100-200 points (which will come off their first pick in 2019).

 

[briztoon]

I think there are two this year that are predicted to go early in the draft, Nick Blakey (Swans Academy) and Tarryn Thomas (North Melbourne Academy). Neither of those clubs hold first round picks, but will match bids with the later picks that they have.

Going off the current draft order and Twomey's form rankings as a guide for what pick value they might be worth, here's how it would play out;

Twomey has Blakey ranked at 8 and Thomas at 11. Assuming they actually go at that point in the draft, pick 8 is worth 1551 points and required 1241 to match, while pick 11 is 1329 points and costs 1063 to match.

Sydney's first two picks are worth 1292 combined, so the first one of those will borrow points from the second to make it up to 1241 points and it'll move up to 8th, everyone else will move back a spot until 26th. The second pick would have 51 points left, and would slot in between 68 and 69 (so everything between 33 and 68 will move up one spot).

For North, their first three picks will be affected. 31 would move up to 11th, consuming all of the points from their second pick (42, which will slide to the end of the draft) and another 62 points from their third pick (48, which will slide back a few spots to 52).

Brisbane also have Connor McFadyen in their academy, they should be able to match him with their second round pick without too much trouble.

North also have Bailey Scott who has nominated them, Twomey rates him at 28th. The rest of the points they have left will go to him. If either of them go one or two spots later in the draft than Twomey has rated them, they'll come out even and I'd probably be happy with that if I was a North supporter. If they go as rated by Twomey though, then North could end up in deficit for 2019 by 100-200 points (which will come off their first pick in 2019).

If the bid for Scott is in the second round, then deficit comes off Norths 2019 second round pick.

 

[Lore]

If the bid for Scott is in the second round, then deficit comes off Norths 2019 second round pick.

You might be right. No one has ever actually gone into deficit so I haven't bothered to check the rule recently.

 

[archereleven]

What was the Scrimshaw trade? I missed it.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Lore]

What was the Scrimshaw trade? I missed it.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

It's in the 2019 draft order thread. Scrimshaw and Gold Coast's 4th round pick for Hawthorn's 3rd round pick.

 

[archereleven]

It's in the 2019 draft order thread. Scrimshaw and Gold Coast's 4th round pick for Hawthorn's 3rd round pick.

Thanks, yep just found it [emoji106]

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Schods]

I think there are two this year that are predicted to go early in the draft, Nick Blakey (Swans Academy) and Tarryn Thomas (North Melbourne Academy). Neither of those clubs hold first round picks, but will match bids with the later picks that they have.

Going off the current draft order and Twomey's form rankings as a guide for what pick value they might be worth, here's how it would play out;

Twomey has Blakey ranked at 8 and Thomas at 11. Assuming they actually go at that point in the draft, pick 8 is worth 1551 points and required 1241 to match, while pick 11 is 1329 points and costs 1063 to match.

Sydney's first two picks are worth 1292 combined, so the first one of those will borrow points from the second to make it up to 1241 points and it'll move up to 8th, everyone else will move back a spot until 26th. The second pick would have 51 points left, and would slot in between 68 and 69 (so everything between 33 and 68 will move up one spot).

For North, their first three picks will be affected. 31 would move up to 11th, consuming all of the points from their second pick (42, which will slide to the end of the draft) and another 62 points from their third pick (48, which will slide back a few spots to 52).

Brisbane also have Connor McFadyen in their academy, they should be able to match him with their second round pick without too much trouble.

North also have Bailey Scott who has nominated them, Twomey rates him at 28th. The rest of the points they have left will go to him. If either of them go one or two spots later in the draft than Twomey has rated them, they'll come out even and I'd probably be happy with that if I was a North supporter. If they go as rated by Twomey though, then North could end up in deficit for 2019 by 100-200 points (which will come off their first pick in 2019).

Well said Lore, however you forgot the two Collingwood boys in Will Kelly (F/S) and Isaac Quaynor (NGA) who are both expected to go in top 25.

 

[Lore]

Well said Lore, however you forgot the two Collingwood boys in Will Kelly (F/S) and Isaac Quaynor (NGA) who are both expected to go in top 25.

Yeah they weren't marked as Collingwood Academy on Twomey's form guide and I really didn't look very hard other than that

They're 14th and 24th on the October form guide, so if we use that as a guide, they match Quaynor with pick 18, which with the discount will cover it almost exactly. I think the remaining points (60 points) from pick 18 would be transferred to the next pick they have, which is 51, which would then be worth about 319 points and temporarily move up the draft. They use those 319 points, plus 194 points from pick 56 and 182 points from pick 57 to pay 588 points to match for Will Kelly if a bid comes at pick 24. Pick 56 has no points left and goes to the end of the draft, everything after it moves up. Pick 57 has 107 points left and moves back to around pick 63.

 

[Lore]

Scully to Hawthorn, Duryea to Western Bulldogs.

Both trades involve future picks, with the 2019 draft order being updated in it's own thread:

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...nal-draft-order-based-on-2018-ladder.1206928/

 

[briztoon]

Yeah they weren't marked as Collingwood Academy on Twomey's form guide and I really didn't look very hard other than that

They're 14th and 24th on the October form guide, so if we use that as a guide, they match Quaynor with pick 18, which with the discount will cover it almost exactly. I think the remaining points (60 points) from pick 18 would be transferred to the next pick they have, which is 51, which would then be worth about 319 points and temporarily move up the draft. They use those 319 points, plus 194 points from pick 56 and 182 points from pick 57 to pay 588 points to match for Will Kelly if a bid comes at pick 24. Pick 56 has no points left and goes to the end of the draft, everything after it moves up. Pick 57 has 107 points left and moves back to around pick 63.

Left over points from first round picks do not generate a new pick, nor do they move that teams next pick up the draft.

Rather they are "banked" to be used to help match any future bids on other possible selections for that team. If they are not used by the end of the draft, they simply disappear.

 

[briztoon]

Yeah they weren't marked as Collingwood Academy on Twomey's form guide and I really didn't look very hard other than that

They're 14th and 24th on the October form guide, so if we use that as a guide, they match Quaynor with pick 18, which with the discount will cover it almost exactly. I think the remaining points (60 points) from pick 18 would be transferred to the next pick they have, which is 51, which would then be worth about 319 points and temporarily move up the draft. They use those 319 points, plus 194 points from pick 56 and 182 points from pick 57 to pay 588 points to match for Will Kelly if a bid comes at pick 24. Pick 56 has no points left and goes to the end of the draft, everything after it moves up. Pick 57 has 107 points left and moves back to around pick 63.

Haven't got Twomey's latest form guide in front of me, but off the top of my head the following players could receive first or second round bids.
Nic Blakey - Sydney
Tarryn Thomas - North
Rhylee West - Bulldogs
Isaac Quaynor - Pies
Will Kelly - Pies
Jarrod Cameron - West Coast
Kieren Briggs - GWS
Bailey Scott - North
Connor McFadyen - Lions
Buku Khamis - Bulldogs

 

[Lore]

Left over points from first round picks do not generate a new pick, nor do they move that teams next pick up the draft.

Rather they are "banked" to be used to help match any future bids on other possible selections for that team. If they are not used by the end of the draft, they simply disappear.

Net result is the same. I should probably brush up on this stuff.

 

[briztoon]

Net result is the same. I should probably brush up on this stuff.

Just tag dlanod and let him deal with the draft points system.

 

[Lore]

Haven't got Twomey's latest form guide in front of me, but off the top of my head the following players could receive first or second round bids.
Nic Blakey - Sydney
Tarryn Thomas - North
Rhylee West - Bulldogs
Isaac Quaynor - Pies
Will Kelly - Pies
Jarrod Cameron - West Coast
Kieren Briggs - GWS
Bailey Scott - North
Connor McFadyen - Lions
Buku Khamis - Bulldogs

I put the October top 30 in the thread directory Jarrod Cameron, Kieren Briggs and Buku Khamis didn't make the 30.

Rhylee West is ranked at 19, which they can match with pick 27 plus a few points off their third round pick (moves down about three spots).


To answer the original question, the bidding process doesn't really affect the overall draft order that much. Kids that are in the open draft will be selected by clubs in the same order they always are, and clubs with academy or father-son kids will pay an appropriate amount of draft capital to get their players. With the rule changes they brought in, clubs can only have as many picks as they have open list spots so they can't really use 5-6 picks to match one player anymore, so it doesn't really do a whole lot in that sense. Picks aren't going to move up 10-15 places the way they did the first year or two they had the bidding system.

The main thing that's going to muck up the draft order on the night now will be live trading, though it remains to be seen whether clubs will actually make much use of that.

 

[Lore]

Just tag dlanod and let him deal with the draft points system.

Well it doesn't make a great deal of difference, I was answering someone's question about how much the bidding would affect the draft order and answered with a couple of examples. Overall, the answer to their question is 'not much'.

I don't update this spreadsheet on draft night, it's far too crazy and the spreadsheet isn't really equipped for it.

 

[Smithy7]

I think there are two this year that are predicted to go early in the draft, Nick Blakey (Swans Academy) and Tarryn Thomas (North Melbourne Academy). Neither of those clubs hold first round picks, but will match bids with the later picks that they have.

Going off the current draft order and Twomey's form rankings as a guide for what pick value they might be worth, here's how it would play out;

Twomey has Blakey ranked at 8 and Thomas at 11. Assuming they actually go at that point in the draft, pick 8 is worth 1551 points and required 1241 to match, while pick 11 is 1329 points and costs 1063 to match.

Sydney's first two picks are worth 1292 combined, so the first one of those will borrow points from the second to make it up to 1241 points and it'll move up to 8th, everyone else will move back a spot until 26th. The second pick would have 51 points left, and would slot in between 68 and 69 (so everything between 33 and 68 will move up one spot).

For North, their first three picks will be affected. 31 would move up to 11th, consuming all of the points from their second pick (42, which will slide to the end of the draft) and another 62 points from their third pick (48, which will slide back a few spots to 52).

Brisbane also have Connor McFadyen in their academy, they should be able to match him with their second round pick without too much trouble.

North also have Bailey Scott who has nominated them, Twomey rates him at 28th. The rest of the points they have left will go to him. If either of them go one or two spots later in the draft than Twomey has rated them, they'll come out even and I'd probably be happy with that if I was a North supporter. If they go as rated by Twomey though, then North could end up in deficit for 2019 by 100-200 points (which will come off their first pick in 2019).

Kai Pudney is in Port Adelaide's Next Generation Academy for this years draft.

 

[Lore]

Kai Pudney is in Port Adelaide's Next Generation Academy for this years draft.

His name isn't listed in Twomey's phantom draft, he also didn't get invited to either the national or state combines unless it was last minute. Might be a rookie prospect?

 

[Smithy7]

His name isn't listed in Twomey's phantom draft, he also didn't get invited to either the national or state combines unless it was last minute. Might be a rookie prospect?

Yes maybe Rookie Draft.
Kai Pudney has won the 2018 McCallum-Tomkins Medal as the finest player in the SANFL Under 18s competition.
He was also a Member of the winning U18 SA team.

 

[Lore]

Yes maybe Rookie Draft.
Kai Pudney has won the 2018 McCallum-Tomkins Medal as the finest player in the SANFL Under 18s competition.
He was also a Member of the winning U18 SA team.

Ah, Pudney tested in the SA State Combine. Just looked in Knightmare's Draft Almanac, someone else just asked about him and KM has him rated in the second half of the draft. Takes stuff all to match bids later in the draft, the pick just moves up and that's about it.
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...-draft-almanac.1188131/page-104#post-58512503

 

[Lore]

Burton (Hawthorn) and Mayes (Brisbane) to Port Adelaide
Wingard (Port Adelaide) to Hawthorn