AFL 2018 - AFL Round 7

[Jugada]

It's been discussed before but 6 day breaks tend to not impact performance, but consecutive 6 day break do (think teams have a 45% win rate). Given this is Ess in trouble? Played Wed and had a 4 day break then played on Sunday. Got smashed in the 2nd half against Melb.

Now they have a 6 day break up against the Hawks with an extra days break. 3 games in 11 days. Surely they are going to fatigue in the 2nd half?

To make it more interesting Ess are terrible in 3rd quarters anyway and Hawks are very good (18 vs 3). Last quarters are more even.

I'm loathe to bet against teams performing very poorly twice in a row and then get slammed in the media for being soft, but I can see Ess jumping out quickly with good intensity and then Hawks adjusting and grinding them down late given their very tough schedule.

FWIW teams on back to back 6 day breaks over the last 5 years

Win: 44.12%
Line: 45.59%

 

[Jugada]

Gold Coast are definitely a better chance with the match being played in Ballarat over Etihad. It makes no real difference to them, but the Dogs definitely lose some of their HGA

 

[iluvparis]

Gold Coast are definitely a better chance with the match being played in Ballarat over Etihad. It makes no real difference to them, but the Dogs definitely lose some of their HGA

Do they? Based on what?

 

[X_box_X]

I don't think the Bulldogs lose any home ground advantage.

The Gold Coast have never played at Mars stadium and, apart from today, I'm guessing they have never been there, let alone trained there. The Bulldogs are familiar with the ground, despite having only played one competitive match there. Given they have trained at the venue occasionally for the past two years, they would be more than familiar with the ground.

IMO, the advantage has more to do with Gold Coast not yet having played at the ground, or trained there. It's a bigger advantage for the Bulldogs to have trained there perhaps 12-15 times and Gold Coast being complete virgins, than the Bulldogs having the game played at their home ground, a venue that Gold Coast would also be familiar with.

FWIW, the Bulldogs have some strange affection with giving the Suns a big lead before running over the top of them. It happened in 2015, and happened last year too. For those who care, it also happened in the JLT last year where the Bulldogs turned a 49-point deficit into a 21-point victory.

 

[Jugada]

Do they? Based on what?

Based on the fact they have only played one more game there than Gold Coast. I dont think Gold Coast lose or gain anything based on if the game is played in Ballarat or at Etihad but the Dogs are obviously far less familiar with Ballarat than Etihad so have to lose something

 

[iluvparis]

Based on the fact they have only played one more game there than Gold Coast. I dont think Gold Coast lose or gain anything based on if the game is played in Ballarat or at Etihad but the Dogs are obviously far less familiar with Ballarat than Etihad so have to lose something

Is it the ground or the area where a game is played that matters though - moving to a new stadium doesn't seem to have impacted Freo/WCE's HGA one iota.

 

[Jugada]

Is it the ground or the area where a game is played that matters though - moving to a new stadium doesn't seem to have impacted Freo/WCE's HGA one iota.

Both to varying degrees. Both WA clubs would have lost some degree of their HGA with having to play in a new unfamiliar stadium

 

[demon_fanatic]

just trying to find some middles now before odds change.. bet 365 and pointsbet have hurley 23.5-25.5 and tom mitchell 34.5.-36.5

 

[capperscap]

Absolute locks geelong tonight
will win 100%
I have a bit of inside information too
Will eat my words if i'm wrong
Lock game

 

[DylanR]

Absolute locks geelong tonight
will win 100%
I have a bit of inside information too
Will eat my words if i'm wrong
Lock game

What inside info?

 

[NonPhixion]

What inside info?

don't take it man...

 

[chrisdon16]

Absolute locks

No such thing.

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Jumping on Mitch Duncan under 26.5 disposals @ 1.97 (Madbookie). Hasn't had more than 26 from his 4 games this year, seems like he has a little less midfield responsibility than he did.

 

[capperscap]

What inside info?

sorry mate
A friend of mine who knows a few giants players said they had a few interna; fights throughout the week and the team seemed 'down' coming into the game.

No such thing.

Disagree,
i think if you're a good punter there will be times throughout the season where you are able to identify a particular game as a 'lock' bet. Or, I suppose, believe a team / bet has more than 95% chance of winning.

 

[Jammer]

$7 early in the week for Roo's is a great get Mookie.

It has one of those Sydney slippery night games written at all over it
adding Roos plus 39.5 and under 179.5 $2.20 William Hill

 

[langdon19]

Cats vs GWS U165.5 Crown

Cats vs GWS U150@$3.10

Good way to start the weekend

 

[demon_fanatic]

Jumping on Mitch Duncan under 26.5 disposals @ 1.97 (Madbookie). Hasn't had more than 26 from his 4 games this year, seems like he has a little less midfield responsibility than he did.

Whoops lol.. I actually liked him n took him over 25.5 pointsbet

 

[Sketi]

Ben Brown holds the key. Can't see any Sydney defenders who will be able to stop him, so that pretty much means double teams the whole night so the other North forwards will have to play well. The big question mark is can North get the ball down quick enough to Brown. That's extremely hard against the Swans but shoud be pretty close if North can win some clearances which they've been doing well through Goldstein's return to form. Higgins should be right to play hopefully.

Terrible record against the Swans though. Can't remember the last time they won at the SCG, certainly not this decade.

I reckon North have been punching above their weight a bit and will continue to slide down well and truly out of the 8.

 

[chrisdon16]

How shit did GWS look tonight. Yes they had a few key injuries but that was embarrassing.

 

[chrisdon16]

Brisbane +20.5

 

[Jugada]

Terrible record against the Swans though. Can't remember the last time they won at the SCG, certainly not this decade.

I reckon North have been punching above their weight a bit and will continue to slide down well and truly out of the 8.

They won there in 2014 and they have only played there once since. A win at ANZ in between as well

 

[Sketi]

They won there in 2014 and they have only played there once since. A win at ANZ in between as well

Oh yeah 2014, erased that horrendously wet game from my memory. The ANZ game was a semi final when we were cooked with injuries.

Ok so about 2 wins at any venue this decade (including Etihad I'm pretty sure?). Generally speaking they are bunnies.

Swans poster speaking obviously but we seem to match up well.

 

[Sketi]

Tempted to go with Port today with Ryder back, power having a good win in Perth last year. WC had a physical derby 6 days ago so could be due to drop one?

 

[capperscap]

Tempted to go with Port today with Ryder back, power having a good win in Perth last year. WC had a physical derby 6 days ago so could be due to drop one?

Also liking port
I don't think West Coast are THAT good

And port adelaide are a side that can beat anyone when they play at their best. However, line of 5.5 is a bit short for mine

 

[capperscap]

Tempted to go big on Hawthorn.

Don't see essendon kicking a winning score with their current forward line