2018 Draft thread

[theteamtobeat]

Is there any mature agers in the Kelly mold out their?

 

[luthor]

80%

Thanks.

Having given it a bit more consideration, it's occurred to me that raw DE %age (for any player) might not tell the full story anyway.

For example:

Player A has a DE of 85% and Player B has a DE of 70%,

Both players are for argument's sake.............Key Defenders

So Player A is a far superior defender to Player B......right?

Well....not necessarily

Player A turns it over only 15% of the time but let's say 75% of these end up in opposition scores. Mathematically that means if you multiply the two percentages together, defender A has a Hurt Factor for your side of approximately 11

Player B turns it over 30% of the time but only concedes a score 25% of the time so defender B has Hurt Factor of 7.5

So who is the better defender?

 

[Crusha]

Thanks.

Having given it a bit more consideration, it's occurred to me that raw DE %age (for any player) might not tell the full story anyway.

For example:

Player A has a DE of 85% and Player B has a DE of 70%,

Both players are for argument's sake.............Key Defenders

So Player A is a far superior defender to Player B......right?

Well....not necessarily

Player A turns it over only 15% of the time but let's say 75% of these end up in opposition scores. Mathematically that means if you multiply the two percentages together, defender A has a Hurt Factor for your side of approximately 11

Player B turns it over 30% of the time but only concedes a score 25% of the time so defender B has Hurt Factor of 7.5

So who is the better defender?

Harris Andrews.

 

[luthor]

Harris Andrews.

Yeah....excellent example.

Who really cares what his DE is . He spoils it away from his opponent with monotonous regularity

 

[Brett C]

Thanks.

Having given it a bit more consideration, it's occurred to me that raw DE %age (for any player) might not tell the full story anyway.

For example:

Player A has a DE of 85% and Player B has a DE of 70%,

Both players are for argument's sake.............Key Defenders

So Player A is a far superior defender to Player B......right?

Well....not necessarily

Player A turns it over only 15% of the time but let's say 75% of these end up in opposition scores. Mathematically that means if you multiply the two percentages together, defender A has a Hurt Factor for your side of approximately 11

Player B turns it over 30% of the time but only concedes a score 25% of the time so defender B has Hurt Factor of 7.5

So who is the better defender?

That wasn’t the point of his post though, it was that NRobbo can’t hit a target.

Sorry but you can’t tell which defender is better based on your hurt factor calculation. What if the player has a mark taken against him or goes a marking contest as 3rd man up and fails to impact the contest

What if the guy whose turnovers lead to scores also takes 5 intercept marks or spoils 5 certain marks a gain and his disposals lead to scoring chains. He might have 10 less possessions a game so his % actually has less impact.

Stats don’t tell the whole story otherwise you’d build a side based on champion data points.

 

[winged1]

Yeah....excellent example.

Who really cares what his DE is . He spoils it away from his opponent with monotonous regularity

Except the example was around hbf where they should be hitting a lot of tsrgets.

 

[Fagenslions36]

Is markon Pickett still playing well ?

Is there any mature agers in the Kelly mold out their?

 

[briztoon]

I reckon it will be Frost.

IMO he would go close to being on the bottom of the KPD depth chart (not including the likes of McStay and Walker) who would be swung back before Frost got a game. Further, I think the likes of Ballenden or Payne (injury permitting) would be more likely to be given a debut before Frost got a game.

Doesn't really matter who it is. Rookies don't need to be elevated to the senior list to get a game anymore. Bastinac, Frost or Lester, it's all the same.

 

[Dylan12]

Doesn't really matter who it is. Rookies don't need to be elevated to the senior list to get a game anymore. Bastinac, Frost or Lester, it's all the same.

We all know that, but the point I was making is that whoever is the person demoted to rookie status (which yes, does not change their ability to be selected to play or what they’re paid) in all likelihood would be the one to least likely get a game, which of Bastinac, Lester and Frost is Frost IMO.

 

[Hornet1]

Just having a go at our draft this year.
I’ve tried to think of players who could reasonably be assumed to be available at our pick.

Pick 18: Jye Caldwell, he has had an injury riddled year but is a huge talent.
Pick 30: Luke Valenti, I watched a couple of the SA games and I thought he was one of their best players. Played a massive role off the hbf and is a natural midfielder.
Pick 35: Connor McFadyen, He is expected to get selected somewhere in the second and I’m hoping it’s after pick 30.
Pick 56: Thomas Berry. Didn’t have a standout year but the club could still offer him a chance.

 

[a mayes ing]

We all know that, but the point I was making is that whoever is the person demoted to rookie status (which yes, does not change their ability to be selected to play or what they’re paid) in all likelihood would be the one to least likely get a game, which of Bastinac, Lester and Frost is Frost IMO.

It won't be Lester, is in the leadership group and played a fair few games last season. Will probably be Frost, got plenty of defenders that are infront of him

 

[winged1]

Just having a go at our draft this year.
I’ve tried to think of players who could reasonably be assumed to be available at our pick.

Pick 18: Jye Caldwell, he has had an injury riddled year but is a huge talent.
Pick 30: Luke Valenti, I watched a couple of the SA games and I thought he was one of their best players. Played a massive role off the hbf and is a natural midfielder.
Pick 35: Connor McFadyen, He is expected to get selected somewhere in the second and I’m hoping it’s after pick 30.
Pick 56: Thomas Berry. Didn’t have a standout year but the club could still offer him a chance.

Valenti is interesting SA captain, big body, I would think the SA clubs would be pretty into him.

Berry goes before McFadyen imo.

 

[winged1]

It won't be Lester, is in the leadership group and played a fair few games last season. Will probably be Frost, got plenty of defenders that are infront of him

Is Lester still in the leadership group? I think it will be frost who gets moved.

 

[Fatcat08]

Just having a go at our draft this year.
I’ve tried to think of players who could reasonably be assumed to be available at our pick.

Pick 18: Jye Caldwell, he has had an injury riddled year but is a huge talent.
Pick 30: Luke Valenti, I watched a couple of the SA games and I thought he was one of their best players. Played a massive role off the hbf and is a natural midfielder.
Pick 35: Connor McFadyen, He is expected to get selected somewhere in the second and I’m hoping it’s after pick 30.
Pick 56: Thomas Berry. Didn’t have a standout year but the club could still offer him a chance.

Personally I doubt Caldwell last much past 10 if he even makes it that far.

 

[SizeMatters]

bailey williams @ 18 plz.

 

[Hornet1]

Personally I doubt Caldwell last much past 10 if he even makes it that far.

I agree on talent alone he is right up there. I am hopeful of a slide because his lack of game time and exposure this year. In other words, if he was available and we picked someone else, sad times!!!

 

[briztoon]

Just having a go at our draft this year.
I’ve tried to think of players who could reasonably be assumed to be available at our pick.

Pick 18: Jye Caldwell, he has had an injury riddled year but is a huge talent.
Pick 30: Luke Valenti, I watched a couple of the SA games and I thought he was one of their best players. Played a massive role off the hbf and is a natural midfielder.
Pick 35: Connor McFadyen, He is expected to get selected somewhere in the second and I’m hoping it’s after pick 30.
Pick 56: Thomas Berry. Didn’t have a standout year but the club could still offer him a chance.

Caldwell will go in the top 12.

Valente is likely available around our first pick, but unlikely to make it to 30.

I just can't see Berry lasting much past pick 35/40'ish.

I agree on talent alone he is right up there. I am hopeful of a slide because his lack of game time and exposure this year. In other words, if he was available and we picked someone else, sad times!!!

I'm confident that if Caldwell was still there at our pick, we couldn't call his name out fast enough.

 

[Brett C]

bailey williams @ 18 plz.

I’ve heard Sam Walsh has a heart murmur and could fall as well

 

[Dalions]

I’ve heard Sam Walsh has a heart murmur and could fall as well

Spread the rumour Brett C!

 

[Clarkythelion]

Thanks.

Having given it a bit more consideration, it's occurred to me that raw DE %age (for any player) might not tell the full story anyway.

For example:

Player A has a DE of 85% and Player B has a DE of 70%,

Both players are for argument's sake.............Key Defenders

So Player A is a far superior defender to Player B......right?

Well....not necessarily

Player A turns it over only 15% of the time but let's say 75% of these end up in opposition scores. Mathematically that means if you multiply the two percentages together, defender A has a Hurt Factor for your side of approximately 11

Player B turns it over 30% of the time but only concedes a score 25% of the time so defender B has Hurt Factor of 7.5

So who is the better defender?

I like where you going on this however Disposal efficiency is particularly hard to use with backman. "Effective disposals are made up of effective long kicks, effective short kicks and effective handballs. An effective long kick is one that is 40 metres to a 50/50 or better for the team. An effective short kick is one that results in a teammate's possession who was the intended target of the kicker. A handball to a teammate that hits the intended target to the team's advantage is recorded as an effective handball." So a backman in a team that chips the ball around a lot behind play can have a hight disposal efficiency. A backman that blasts the ball out out the backline continually to a pack downfield, irrespective of the outcome, can have a high disposal efficiency. So a backman in trying to set up a spread, handballs it off sidewards, is part of a chain of side kicks and backward kicks behind play then blasts it down the ind to his ruckman in a 50/50 contest where the ball is lost and it comes back in again. He has a disposal efficiency 100% for that passage of play but the ball is about to drop back on his head. A backman like Harris Andrews, McGovern & Rance whom continually breakdown the opposition attack to me are the most valuable. There should be a broader stat around intercept mark, intercept punch, tackle inside 50, contested position and a few others that add up to Effective Backman. I guess at the end of the day we just have to look at the games and assess for ourselves - gee that bugger is hard to get around.

 

[Surly Boy]

From the AFL website, Twomeys prediction for our first pick:

Pick 18: If the Lions could nab Chayce Jones with their first pick at the draft it would be the icing on top of their deal that landed them Lachie Neale. Jones is a worker: he powers through games in the midfield but will likely start as a smaller forward or back. Has good skills, is tough and was the best performed player at the NAB AFL Draft Combine.

Around the mark: Zak Butters, Liam Stocker, Jackson Hately

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-21/your-clubs-first-pic

 

[briztoon]

From the AFL website, Twomeys prediction for our first pick:

Pick 18: If the Lions could nab Chayce Jones with their first pick at the draft it would be the icing on top of their deal that landed them Lachie Neale. Jones is a worker: he powers through games in the midfield but will likely start as a smaller forward or back. Has good skills, is tough and was the best performed player at the NAB AFL Draft Combine.

Around the mark: Zak Butters, Liam Stocker, Jackson Hately

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-21/your-clubs-first-pic

I'd take Chayce Jones and not look back.

When you look who might be realistically available at our first pick, Jones is a fantastic outcome. He might be on the shorter side, but he's very athletic and mobile, and would do very well to model his game on Lachie Neale.

 

[pulpdriver]

I'd take Chayce Jones and not look back.

When you look who might be realistically available at our first pick, Jones is a fantastic outcome. He might be on the shorter side, but he's very athletic and mobile, and would do very well to model his game on Lachie Neale.

Don't think his height will be an issue at all for us. Nobes already said in the latest RD podcast on the topic of big-bodied midfielders that we wouldn't necessarily take a bigger body over someone smaller we thought was more talented, which made me think of Jones. In terms of big bodies for the midfield we're probably set anyway. Berry will be there full time and it's likely that two or more of Rayner, Starcevich and McFadyen will either be there full time or rotating through the mid and forward line. Jones is a good fit.

I'm hoping after the draft we've got any two of Jones, Duursma, O'Halloran or Stocker along with McFadyen. Clark would be a perfect fit and my ideal first choice but probably unlikely we'll trade up to be in a position to grab him.

 

[Dylan12]

I'd take Chayce Jones and not look back.

When you look who might be realistically available at our first pick, Jones is a fantastic outcome. He might be on the shorter side, but he's very athletic and mobile, and would do very well to model his game on Lachie Neale.

Is he an Allies kid?

If so, I’m always a fan of those kids from the Allies that aren’t in our Academy (although they have to warrant their selection at that pick). No go home factor (aside from NSW kids) and generally aren’t princesses either (Worm aside).

 

[scoman]

Is he an Allies kid?

If so, I’m always a fan of those kids from the Allies that aren’t in our Academy (although they have to warrant their selection at that pick). No go home factor (aside from NSW kids) and generally aren’t princesses either (Worm aside).

Tasmanian.