2018 Draft thread

[dizzysquizz]

Duursma Smith Mcfayden berry and this Answerth kid 19yr old half back that twomey mentioned sounds alright for 5th pick

Lions were interested in Answerth last yr, would be a good get with one of our last picks.

 

[dlanod]

The funny/sad thing is, Knightmare is one of the few who won't change his ratings of players and cops some crap for it. Then does a phantom draft where he expects clubs to draft players, including rumours he's heard and cops crap for not sticking to his ratings. There are other sources I pay more attention to, but Knightmare cops a lot of unwarranted abuse for putting his opinion out there, when he's one of a small minority who actually goes out to see these kids.

Well, the Victorian kids. I don't expect him to fly around Australia to see the rest of them, but it is his rating of the ones he doesn't see (beyond Championships) that I tend to question. He does put a lot of effort in, and his write-ups on Victorian talent is decent.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

It's not so much the selections - they're all reasonable value at the picks they've got. It's the rationale and lack of awareness of our list. 3 relatively inside mids and a general forward? Doesn't sound like what the club has said they want.

I don't disagree that Curtis Taylor was close to best available at that point. I have Sturt, McHenry, and possibly McLennan higher than him, but that's just me (and I'm happy to admit that I'm a youtube watching novice). But you look at the insight into why they thought Curtis Taylor was a good fit for us, and it's the same old line... "Cam Rayner's best mate". No analysis at all of how he'd fit in our list. I'm on the Sam Sturt bandwagon, purely on upside, but I'm also aware that he's not exactly what we're after.

Next they've got Ely Smith because we apparently we're targeting big bodies. Except that the club are on record that we got big bodies in the offseason already, and now we need pace and outside run, maybe another half back. Personally, on that board, I'd be looking at Kennerley if the club knew they were interested in McFadyen and Berry.

McFadyen, yep, they'd likely match that.

Berry has slid down this season, but the club has undoubtedly kept an eye on him. If they rate him - and they'll know - I wouldn't be surprised by the pick at all. But if the club intend to take him and McFadyen, do you think they'd take Ely Smith first?

If I may, and I'm glad you've expanded on your point, there are three names who I have heard the club has been linked to for that first selection - Xavier Duursma, Curtis Taylor and Sam Sturt.

In our Phantom Draft, Duursma - who from my discussions would be the dream get - is off the board, and we expect will be on draft night as a couple of clubs ahead of you are keen as well. Which from our perspective leaves Taylor and Sturt. The reason we opted for Taylor over Sturt, was correct in partially being the Rayner connection - and the fact there is less of a go-home factor, but the other part being the fact that Taylor is more midfield ready if you like, than Sturt. Given one has been in the AFL Academy system for multiple years, and the other has been playing locally his whole career until he was spotted this year, the experience and body size comparison is very different. Sturt is the literal definition of raw.

I think there's every chance you might opt for Sturt to fill that forward role, but the other reason for the Taylor choice is the fact that he can play a similar role to Zorko once he has that full-time environment, with an ability to play through the midfield as well as up forward. Sturt is not ready to play midfield as he is still behind others in terms of learning other areas of the game. We probably should have expanded on the Phantom Draft in terms of explanations, but we know from experience, the majority of readers want to click on, see who they pick, click their profile if they don't know them and then agree/disagree if it's who they want. I know speaking to Matt Balmer today he's leaning more towards it being Sturt, or as a possible curveball - Ely Smith as the late call-up.

In past years, the draft has been fairly on the money with chatter you hear, but of course this year is a bit of a test subject with live trading coming in, especially with the amount of bidding that takes place. So apologies for not expanding on the explanation further, but I can assure you we do not just pick players based on friendships, there is more to it than that.

 

[briztoon]

Well, the Victorian kids. I don't expect him to fly around Australia to see the rest of them, but it is his rating of the ones he doesn't see (beyond Championships) that I tend to question. He does put a lot of effort in, and his write-ups on Victorian talent is decent.

I know he watches a lot of tape where he can. He will watch the live streamed NEAFL, SANFL and WAFL matches. Sometimes I do wonder if he pays a bit to much attention to stats from games/players he can't watch.

As I said, there are others I rate higher than Knightmare, but I do read him. One aspect of his rating of kids I do pay attention to, is his view on contested possession %. And it's the same view one of the Champion Data analysts mentioned last year. Kids with a low CP% don't translate well to the AFL. And they have a definite red zone where you shouldn't touch kids.

 

[briztoon]

If I may, and I'm glad you've expanded on your point, there are three names who I have heard the club has been linked to for that first selection - Xavier Duursma, Curtis Taylor and Sam Sturt.

In our Phantom Draft, Duursma - who from my discussions would be the dream get - is off the board, and we expect will be on draft night as a couple of clubs ahead of you are keen as well. Which from our perspective leaves Taylor and Sturt. The reason we opted for Taylor over Sturt, was correct in partially being the Rayner connection - and the fact there is less of a go-home factor, but the other part being the fact that Taylor is more midfield ready if you like, than Sturt. Given one has been in the AFL Academy system for multiple years, and the other has been playing locally his whole career until he was spotted this year, the experience and body size comparison is very different. Sturt is the literal definition of raw.

I think there's every chance you might opt for Sturt to fill that forward role, but the other reason for the Taylor choice is the fact that he can play a similar role to Zorko once he has that full-time environment, with an ability to play through the midfield as well as up forward. Sturt is not ready to play midfield as he is still behind others in terms of learning other areas of the game. We probably should have expanded on the Phantom Draft in terms of explanations, but we know from experience, the majority of readers want to click on, see who they pick, click their profile if they don't know them and then agree/disagree if it's who they want. I know speaking to Matt Balmer today he's leaning more towards it being Sturt, or as a possible curveball - Ely Smith as the late call-up.

In past years, the draft has been fairly on the money with chatter you hear, but of course this year is a bit of a test subject with live trading coming in, especially with the amount of bidding that takes place. So apologies for not expanding on the explanation further, but I can assure you we do not just pick players based on friendships, there is more to it than that.

Great reply Pie 4 Life.

I for one would probably prefer Sturt, as I have said on here before if Duursma was off the board.

What type of player do you see Sturt potentially developing in to? A Jaidyn Stephenson or Will Hayward type?

 

[dlanod]

As I said, there are others I rate higher than Knightmare, but I do read him. One aspect of his rating of kids I do pay attention to, is his view on contested possession %. And it's the same view one of the Champion Data analysts mentioned last year. Kids with a low CP% don't translate well to the AFL.

I strongly agree with that - I noticed it watching Aish vs Dunstan in person before we even drafted him, and KM was pushing CP% as an indicator early on and it's since proved a good rule of thumb for guys who might be busts.

 

[eDPS]

Great reply Pie 4 Life.

I for one would probably prefer Sturt, as I have said on here before if Duursma was off the board.

What type of player do you see Sturt potentially developing in to? A Jaidyn Stephenson or Will Hayward type?

Bailey Fritsch would be my comparison, Hayward not a bad one either, you asked Pie 4 Life but he is used to me butting in by now

 

[briztoon]

Bailey Fritsch would be my comparison, Hayward not a bad one either, you asked Pie 4 Life but he is used to me butting in by now

A reply from the apprentice* is almost as good.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Great reply Pie 4 Life.

I for one would probably prefer Sturt, as I have said on here before if Duursma was off the board.

What type of player do you see Sturt potentially developing in to? A Jaidyn Stephenson or Will Hayward type?

I think he's more of that forward first, midfield second type. Stephenson is a midfield first, forward second type (once he gets to the gym). Sturt has all the traits that make him such an enticing forward prospect. In terms of midfield development, he just hasn't had any so it's a huge question marks. The traits I see Sturt carrying into his midfield development would be his athleticism and his smarts. Obviously it would be a long-term aim if he did, but he's one of those I actually look at and go - why would you want to? He's got an elite vertical leap, runs the 20m in under 3 seconds, great agility, high smarts, reliable kick for goal, just every box you want ticked as a medium forward he ticks on the offensive side. Maybe some might question his defensive game, but he hasn't had the exposure to consider anything serious.

So to answer you question, he probably could develop into a midfielder, but I wouldn't simply because he has all the traits to be a dominant forward. That could change with more exposure to an elite system, as I've only seen him live four times - all the TAC games he's played. The difference between school footy and the AFL is massive, but he's high risk, high reward.

I'd take Sturt ahead of Taylor too btw.

 

[jjami15]

If I may, and I'm glad you've expanded on your point, there are three names who I have heard the club has been linked to for that first selection - Xavier Duursma, Curtis Taylor and Sam Sturt.

In our Phantom Draft, Duursma - who from my discussions would be the dream get - is off the board, and we expect will be on draft night as a couple of clubs ahead of you are keen as well. Which from our perspective leaves Taylor and Sturt. The reason we opted for Taylor over Sturt, was correct in partially being the Rayner connection - and the fact there is less of a go-home factor, but the other part being the fact that Taylor is more midfield ready if you like, than Sturt. Given one has been in the AFL Academy system for multiple years, and the other has been playing locally his whole career until he was spotted this year, the experience and body size comparison is very different. Sturt is the literal definition of raw.

I think there's every chance you might opt for Sturt to fill that forward role, but the other reason for the Taylor choice is the fact that he can play a similar role to Zorko once he has that full-time environment, with an ability to play through the midfield as well as up forward. Sturt is not ready to play midfield as he is still behind others in terms of learning other areas of the game. We probably should have expanded on the Phantom Draft in terms of explanations, but we know from experience, the majority of readers want to click on, see who they pick, click their profile if they don't know them and then agree/disagree if it's who they want. I know speaking to Matt Balmer today he's leaning more towards it being Sturt, or as a possible curveball - Ely Smith as the late call-up.

In past years, the draft has been fairly on the money with chatter you hear, but of course this year is a bit of a test subject with live trading coming in, especially with the amount of bidding that takes place. So apologies for not expanding on the explanation further, but I can assure you we do not just pick players based on friendships, there is more to it than that.

Greatly appreciate your insight and coming in to communicate this to our board.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

A reply from the apprentice* is almost as good.

This is a better response than I ever could have come up with back to him, so just going to frame it.

I swear he has a tracking device on me

 

[eDPS]

A reply from the apprentice* is almost as good.

I think of this combo

 

[spotthedog1]

If I may, and I'm glad you've expanded on your point, there are three names who I have heard the club has been linked to for that first selection - Xavier Duursma, Curtis Taylor and Sam Sturt.

In our Phantom Draft, Duursma - who from my discussions would be the dream get - is off the board, and we expect will be on draft night as a couple of clubs ahead of you are keen as well. Which from our perspective leaves Taylor and Sturt. The reason we opted for Taylor over Sturt, was correct in partially being the Rayner connection - and the fact there is less of a go-home factor, but the other part being the fact that Taylor is more midfield ready if you like, than Sturt. Given one has been in the AFL Academy system for multiple years, and the other has been playing locally his whole career until he was spotted this year, the experience and body size comparison is very different. Sturt is the literal definition of raw.

I think there's every chance you might opt for Sturt to fill that forward role, but the other reason for the Taylor choice is the fact that he can play a similar role to Zorko once he has that full-time environment, with an ability to play through the midfield as well as up forward. Sturt is not ready to play midfield as he is still behind others in terms of learning other areas of the game. We probably should have expanded on the Phantom Draft in terms of explanations, but we know from experience, the majority of readers want to click on, see who they pick, click their profile if they don't know them and then agree/disagree if it's who they want. I know speaking to Matt Balmer today he's leaning more towards it being Sturt, or as a possible curveball - Ely Smith as the late call-up.

In past years, the draft has been fairly on the money with chatter you hear, but of course this year is a bit of a test subject with live trading coming in, especially with the amount of bidding that takes place. So apologies for not expanding on the explanation further, but I can assure you we do not just pick players based on friendships, there is more to it than that.

Cheers Pie4Life. Appreciate the response, and I apologise if I was a bit dismissive. Good explanation on Taylor, and a reasonable argument. As I said - Taylor is right in the mix as best available on that board, so while I didn't like the explanation (which you have now expounded on), he's certainly in the right range. Completely agree with Duursma being a great option for us, but as you've said - he was off the board by then, so that's just too bad - wouldn't surprise me if that happened on the night either...

I think the real question I'd have if the draft fell that way would be around the mix. You'd said we're targeting big bodied mids, which is very different to my view of the Lions list, and a bit different to noises from the club. I think we needed one more inside mid, and got him in JLyons. David Noble has said a few times in the media that we now need pace, run, and outside spread, and maybe another half back flanker. So I was surprised to see predictions of:
- Taylor (forward, and in my (novice) eyes, probably more inside ability)
- Ely Smith (slow inside mid with no outside ability)
- McFadyen (forward, big bodied inside mid)
- Berry (inside mid, though with some speed to spread from the contest)

If I'm just way off the mark about any of those players, then that might make more sense, but that's my completely-novice, youtube watching impression of the players mentioned.

As I said in the last post, Ely Smith is probably the pick that confused me most. I rate him, think he'll be good, but if you're going best available as Taylor at 1, and then the club know they're getting McFadyen, and have a strong inkling they'll get Berry as well... I think Smith ends up a bit redundant. Best available is an argument, but unless they have him well ahead of everyone else left on the board, I'd probably be pushing other guys ahead simply on a needs-basis.

Appreciate your response - any thoughts you have on the above are also welcome.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Cheers Pie4Life. Appreciate the response, and I apologise if I was a bit dismissive. Good explanation on Taylor, and a reasonable argument. As I said - Taylor is right in the mix as best available on that board, so while I didn't like the explanation (which you have now expounded on), he's certainly in the right range. Completely agree with Duursma being a great option for us, but as you've said - he was off the board by then, so that's just too bad - wouldn't surprise me if that happened on the night either...

I think the real question I'd have if the draft fell that way would be around the mix. You'd said we're targeting big bodied mids, which is very different to my view of the Lions list, and a bit different to noises from the club. I think we needed one more inside mid, and got him in JLyons. David Noble has said a few times in the media that we now need pace, run, and outside spread, and maybe another half back flanker. So I was surprised to see predictions of:
- Taylor (forward, and in my (novice) eyes, probably more inside ability)
- Ely Smith (slow inside mid with no outside ability)
- McFadyen (forward, big bodied inside mid)
- Berry (inside mid, though with some speed to spread from the contest)

If I'm just way off the mark about any of those players, then that might make more sense, but that's my completely-novice, youtube watching impression of the players mentioned.

As I said in the last post, Ely Smith is probably the pick that confused me most. I rate him, think he'll be good, but if you're going best available as Taylor at 1, and then the club know they're getting McFadyen, and have a strong inkling they'll get Berry as well... I think Smith ends up a bit redundant. Best available is an argument, but unless they have him well ahead of everyone else left on the board, I'd probably be pushing other guys ahead simply on a needs-basis.

Appreciate your response - any thoughts you have on the above are also welcome.

All good mate.

Bit harsh on Ely Smith, he runs the 20m sprint in three seconds, so he's not "slow", and is capable of that burst we see with some players. My knock on him earlier in the year was him trying to play more outside, and while he does not have that much of an influence out there, he has the traits he could if you so desire, but it would be ability more so than speed that would stop him from developing outside game. Like Sturt, I just would play him inside because of his clean hands, movement through a stoppage and bigger body.

Likewise with Berry having "some speed", he is just about as elite as they come with both acceleration and agility. His endurance is pretty good as well, but his acceleration and agility - he'd go close to winning both those events if he'd tested at full fitness. The reason Berry is better suited to the inside is because of his kicking and decision making, and another reason why he drops down far. If you can clean up his kicking, he can play outside, but more so he can play half-forward because he can launch a ball.

Taylor could go inside or outside, I actually see him more of an outside midfielder without the explosive speed of a Rayner, but he's certainly more of a forward.

So while you're correct in saying the players are inside-leaning, and certainly with Smith and Berry being proper inside mids, both actually have very good and elite speed between them so you're not getting a bunch of one-paced players in that sense. McFadyen even possesses terrific agility and good speed, he just doesn't use it which is what can happen. I was shocked to see how well he tested pre-season, but that's good from your perspective as if you can start harnessing his speed and agility to put to better use in a game, he can be even better.

Chances are Smith is probably gone by your pick now he has a late invite to the draft, and yeah it might be a touch too much inside happening there, but mostly the point I'll just raise there is, they are certainly not "slow" inside midfielders.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Also I know briztoon is often referring to attending games so just to put people's minds at ease (I did this for the podcast I did to work out how many games I attended, not to big note myself) The below are all the games I attended live at all levels this year (so not including games I watch on tape).

Again not to show off or anything, but just to show I don't just talk the talk as such. I also take pictures at all the games I attend (except AFL because you know how tight they are), so have the proof to back it up. Just for context.

 

[briztoon]

This is a better response than I ever could have come up with back to him, so just going to frame it.

I swear he has a tracking device on me

lol, my original response was "side kick" (as in batman and robin) instead of apprentice. But felt that bit of banter crossed a line somewhat, somewhere.

I think of this combo
View attachment 586782

This is more the image that comes to mind for me.

 

[dlanod]

Again not to show off or anything, but just to show I don't just talk the talk as such. I also take pictures at all the games I attend (except AFL because you know how tight they are), so have the proof to back it up. Just for context.

If you're only going to Collingwood AFL games you've obviously getting a very misleading idea about how today's AFL is.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

If you're only going to Collingwood AFL games you've obviously getting a very misleading idea about how today's AFL is.

Haha try fitting in any AFL games around my calendar, it's a wonder I get to that many.

 

[eDPS]

lol, my original response was "side kick" (as in batman and robin) instead of apprentice. But felt that bit of banter crossed a line somewhat, somewhere.



This is more the image that comes to mind for me.

View attachment 586791

 

[BRAB]

Also I know briztoon is often referring to attending games so just to put people's minds at ease (I did this for the podcast I did to work out how many games I attended, not to big note myself) The below are all the games I attended live at all levels this year (so not including games I watch on tape).

Again not to show off or anything, but just to show I don't just talk the talk as such. I also take pictures at all the games I attend (except AFL because you know how tight they are), so have the proof to back it up. Just for context.

No NEAFL games? #fakefan

 

[spotthedog1]

Worked estimate: Where do our picks fall?

Initial draft picks: 18, 30, 35, 56, 78

Pick 18:
Added picks before 18 - Blakey, Thomas, Quaynor, possibly Rhylee West.
Moved-back picks before 18 - 0
Estimated pick - 21

Pick 30:
Added picks before 30 - 4 above, Will Kelly
Moved back picks before 30 - 26 (Syd), 27 (WB)
Estimated pick - 33

Pick 35 (estimated for academy purposes):
Added picks before 35: 5 above, Connor McFadyen
Moved back picks before 35: 2 above, 33 (Syd).
Estimated pick: 38 unless moved up to Connor McFadyen.

Note: Bailey Scott and Kieran Briggs may also be bid on before this pick, which would push us to 40.
Note 2: If McFadyen is taken (let's say 3 at pick 34, one after our pick 33): pick 38 moves back to pick 63.
Note 3: If a bid comes at pick 39 (after our pick 38), our pick 56 disappears, and we may be about 50 points in arrears (depending on whether bid before or after Scott/Briggs).

Pick 56:
Added picks before 56 - 6 above, Bailey Scott, Kieran Briggs, Jarrod Cameron, Toby Bedford, Buku Khamis
Moved back picks before 56: 4 above (incl 35 for McFadyen), 42, 47, 48, 49 (All NM - 2 bids), 41, 44, 57 (Pies - 2 bids), 52 (GWS)
[Note: Syd's 38 moved back to about 52 - still between our picks]
Estimated pick: 55

Pick 78 (a LOT of guesswork, and assuming no picks passed):
Added picks before 78 - 11 above, Mosquito, Brownless
Moved back picks before 78 - 12 above, 63 (WB), 61 (WC), 62 (Melb)
Earlier picks reinserted before 78 - Coll's 57 at 68, WB's 27 at 71
Estimated pick: 78

So there you go.
Initial draft picks: 18, 30, 35, 56, 78
New draft picks: 21, 33, 38, 55, 78

I'm surprised by that. Thought our 78 would be about 70. But a combination of clubs getting change before our pick, and more late bids, and it actually isn't (in this scenario). As usual - this is a GUESS and will very likely be wrong. I just wanted to see where things would likely fall for us.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Suppose we want to move up for Duursma or someone else who falls, what would picks 18 and 35 fetch us in a trade?

 

[jackess]

Suppose we want to move up for Duursma or someone else who falls, what would picks 18 and 35 fetch us in a trade?

Maybe pick 16?

I can't see many trades happening and teams will likely only downgrade if the trade is massively in their favour.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Maybe pick 16?

I can't see many trades happening and teams will likely only downgrade if the trade is massively in their favour.

At that stage Port will have had their three first round picks, I guess Adelaide can move down and still get Valente if that's who they plan to take

 

[Pie 4 Life]

It was the Lions who requested Ely Smith attend, just FYI. Found out just now. Read into that as you will, but they are obviously considering him.