Still don't get it. Why would we give up valuable picks this year and or next, for a player like Shiel, when he is a FREE hit next year
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Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)
- Thread starter Jeremias
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I know... it's crazy talk. That and the media suggestions of how we should trade for Sloane, Jeremy McGovern, GCS Lynch and seemingly every other free agent....
JustaBattler
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Blue supporters need to wake up and stop taking Cripps for granted - all very well to swoon over the future potential of SPS/Fisher and Dow - none of whom can take on the bigger players who rotate through on ball to Cripps and just smash him over and over again. Cripps hasn't signed up for a bunged up body by his mid 20's in order to provide an armchair ride for developing 'potential' of kids. He has less support than Judd had and Judd had none. thank goodness Kennedy is back on field and playing - the only other player in teh side on Sunday with any hint of genuine menace.
AFL football STARTS with midfield capability and Carlton isnt even on the starting blocks - destroys any defensive structure as well as attacking structure - just a joke - no one is fooled except look long term rose coloured glass optimists. Long term is built by incremental improvement short terms.
2 genuine midfield presences required to keep rebuild on track - no BS.
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The risk with waiting a year is we open ourselves up to competition from all the other VIC clubs which lets face it puts us well down the pecking order.
He is worth 2 first rounds but not pick 1 being one of them. Maybe we will use a future pick to get the deal done.
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Because we have currency (in picks) to trade, next year we will be one of 17 other clubs chasing him for free. And so far, we haven't landed a big fish and we aren't exactly a destination of choice for A grade players. Either way, still may not want to come to carlton if traded for anyway until we are more of an attractive proposition (hopefully in the next 2-3 years).
No doubt, but there would be OOC and FA this year that would assist in that situation, short to medium term until our own come on
FA - Sloane, Mundy, Horlin-Smith, Wallis, all of which would help short to medium term. Then the countless OOC players that we could entice. Things change quickly
The number one factor is him nominating us as a club of choice.
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Has he?
We are his only way out in 2019. There'll be 9 other ways he can come back in 2020. If we really want him it has to be now
Looking at what each draft pick is worth as per AFL website.
IF SOS believes there is more value in gaining multiple picks in the top 25 then he has plenty of options. One of them being Adelaide.
Trade pick 1 & 26 (Adelaide 2nd rounder in Gibbs trade) to Adelaide for picks 8,13 & 19 (our 2nd rounder in Gibbs trade).
They get Lukosius and pick 26.
We get picks 8, 13, 19 & 23. Can trade 19 & 23 for 24-26 year olds from other teams and draft two players in the top 13.
Mightn’t look great for Adelaide but the points add up and they probably think this year is an aberration and with injured players returning, camp nightmare behind them, plus Lukosius they can contend again.
IF SOS believes there is more value in gaining multiple picks in the top 25 then he has plenty of options. One of them being Adelaide.
Trade pick 1 & 26 (Adelaide 2nd rounder in Gibbs trade) to Adelaide for picks 8,13 & 19 (our 2nd rounder in Gibbs trade).
They get Lukosius and pick 26.
We get picks 8, 13, 19 & 23. Can trade 19 & 23 for 24-26 year olds from other teams and draft two players in the top 13.
Mightn’t look great for Adelaide but the points add up and they probably think this year is an aberration and with injured players returning, camp nightmare behind them, plus Lukosius they can contend again.
It does not have to be now, that is impatience talking
If he wants out this year, he would still need to nominate a club of choice.
Why would he leave now, to join us, when he still have an opportunity to win a flag this year or next
End of next year, if he nominates us and we put forward a decent contract, the only club that has a right of reply, is GWS
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This is one of those years that if you’re trading out pick 1 you need to have the points system say you got more value. An even points trade won’t cut it. Top end of this draft is special.
Yeh, I think the Blues definitely float this sort of idea and entertain it, should we get pick 1. We may very well also take it to the draft, but I get the feeling (for the reasons you have suggested) a too-good-to-refuse opportunity may be forthcoming.
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Big thing is if he nominates us next year.
Question is why would he nominate us next year when there'll be 9 other clubs who can get him? What is our selling point? Sure we won't go 3-19 in 2019 but at best it's a 6-8 win season. How do we sell that over finals which is what we are up against?
The question on why he'd leave GWS now is the tough bit. But with their struggles this season he might want to accelerate that move and be back here in 2019.
Pick 3 and 26 for 8, 13 and 19 would go close to considering. Probably still no but in the ball park.
Which means, if desperate, and knowing they have to pay overs, Adelaide could throw in a player as well.
Shaun Hampson retired.
Nil all draw that trade.
So you are a no for Rankine and Lukosious
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What would GWS want for Shiel?? I suspect considering they would be hoping they could bounce back next year with a fit list and challenge again the price would be heavy and #1 might not be enough.. So perhaps we would need to trade down the pick to get 2 top 10 picks and then perhaps a swap of GWS picks.. So we would lose pick 1 (lets just call it Lukosious) and get Shiel and pick 12.. I could live with that i think.
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Why trade for him when we can get him as a free agent next year. If we end up with pick 1 we are not trading it for a player. Shiel is not a top 10 midfielder in comp so not worth it
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Josh kelly on the other hand.....
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You are still missing the point, we could offer 2 × 1st, 2 x 2nd and 2 × 3rd rounders and GWS would say yeap let's do the deal, yet Sheil declines wants to join another club
I will say it again, the number 1 sticking point, the most important factor, for any trade/FA deal, is the player nominating the club of choice
JustaBattler
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I dont have the information available to speculate on what the best outcome for Carlton's needs will be or can be or can be manufactured. This is why I don't participate in conjecture/discussion etc in draft threads and stuff like that.
I am waiting for news about Cripps signing an extended contract. This is an absolutely vital and telling strategic input into the whole rebuild scenario.
In this context - I am sharing my view that Carlton's biggest issue is in fact getting support around Cripps and improving midfield capability as #1 priority
In this context - it makes perfect sense to me what Simpson said on the Couch regarding use of picks and cash.
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I think we are on the same page?
Assuming Shiel wants to leave, his choice of clubs
2019: Carlton
2020: Carlton + 9 others
The reason we have to try in 2019 is because we've got the clear run. Outside of a miracle 2019 season where we win 9-10 games we aren't in the top 3 clubs of choice for him in 2020
Didn't we on-trade Richmond's second round pick for Docherty?
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