Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[Pafloyul]

Possibly a King brother and another gun mid. Sounds pretty good.

The King brothers will probably be picks three and four in the draft.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Not my rumour, but ask around if you feel up to it

Ok so I asked around - and heard a rumour that Sean Hampson is going to come back and play at Carlton. Sure he said he’s going to retire, and the rumour seems pretty ridiculous and beneficial to neither Sean or Carlton, but if you’re right that’s something to look forward to I guess.

Either that or you can’t really rely on rumours, especially when they directly contradict the word of parties involved, and demanding others to believe yours seems a bit silly.

 

[jd2010]

Think i am done

You are clear in your mind that we hold all the cards, yet it all comes down to what Shiel wants, not how many draft picks or players we can trade

Consider that for a moment

I'm trying to correct your previous post where I think you meant "I have determined that they only want pick (but you posted players)"

If they want players instead of the #1 pick that levels things but even then it rules out North who I don't see having the cattle to do the deal. And the Saints for that matter. But what sort of player for player trade could they possibly be more happy with than pick 1. If Shiel is steadfast on picking his club he waits a year. If he just wants to be back in Melbourne he comes a year earlier in a trade that works for both parties or he has to wait it out another year.

FWIW if I'm in his shoes this is how it'd be
1. FA to a top 8 club in 2020 (won't be us)
2. Trade to Carlton in 2019
3. Stay at GWS for good
4. Make an unrealistic trade demand in 2019

 

[Arr0w]

Ok so I asked around - and heard a rumour that Sean Hampson is going to come back and play at Carlton. Sure he said he’s going to retire, and the rumour seems pretty ridiculous and beneficial to neither Sean or Carlton, but if you’re right that’s something to look forward to I guess.

Either that or you can’t really rely on rumours, and demanding others to believe yours seems a bit silly.

Hahaha

Interesting deflection

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Hahaha

Interesting deflection

Deflection? You don’t see the satire?

Maybe I should’ve ended by demanding you believe my rumour, and posted a few terse single word replies and it would’ve been more obvious

 

[Arr0w]

I'm trying to correct your previous post where I think you meant "I have determined that they only want pick (but you posted players)"

If they want players instead of the #1 pick that levels things but even then it rules out North who I don't see having the cattle to do the deal. And the Saints for that matter. But what sort of player for player trade could they possibly be more happy with than pick 1. If Shiel is steadfast on picking his club he waits a year. If he just wants to be back in Melbourne he comes a year earlier in a trade that works for both parties or he has to wait it out another year.

FWIW if I'm in his shoes this is how it'd be
1. FA to a top 8 club in 2020 (won't be us)
2. Trade to Carlton in 2019
3. Stay at GWS for good
4. Make an unrealistic trade demand in 2019

I will make it easy for both of us

IMO, Shiel will remain at GWS next year

While you convince yourself, that we are in the box seat if he wants out

Yet, your assumptions are based on what you want, rather than Shiel

If he requests a trade this year and it is any of the other 9 clubs in Melbourne, the deal will get done

 

[Arr0w]

Deflection? You don’t see the satire?

Maybe I should’ve ended by demanding you believe my rumour, and posted a few terse single word replies and it would’ve been more obvious

As i said, ask around

If you think that is terse, go back through the exchange of countless posts regarding the exact same thing

As such, stick to the original coversation, Shiel

 

[IronMan29]

Straight from the horses mouth but okay

Also documented in judds book hmmm

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[gbatman]

I think if we do keep pick 1 and Lukuscious is the clear best player we will have to look at trading H at some point (which is kind of why I'm happy to trade pick 1 since I still think H will be a star). Curnow looks a natural forward so I don't buy into the move to midfield stuff just yet. Unless the AFL brings in these new rules we will be too top heavy up there

Yep Curnow forward for mine, I think McKay will be alright but not convinced he'll be a star just yet, in fact I hold more hope for De Koning who catches my eye. Drafting a lot of talls in a rebuild, drafting a lot of tall forwards, you do it because only a few will turn out and that is what we have done. If a lot turn out and you have a surplus then some become trade bait and if they are rated well enough they can be quite valuable. Just depends if the time is now.

I know there is no talk of us getting Lynch and there won't be, we'll be keeping things tight but if we did get him then there is no need for Lukosius or McKay which makes both McKay and Pick 1 tradable in my mind. If we landed Lynch then we not only land a good player but it opens up so many trade doors for us.

The other thing is that the other Vic clubs, do they have the serious cash to get a big RFA? Perhaps we do a good deal with the suns with our picks swap and trades where they don't go hard at outbidding us...

It will be interesting to see how things work out.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

As i said, ask around

If you think that is terse, go back through the exchange of countless posts regarding the exact same thing

As such, stick to the original coversation, Shiel

I’ve never said anything about Shiel. This topic of conversation has been around my disbelief that you not only believe that rumour over the word of Connors, but you expect other to also. Not just expect, demand. In a pretty rude way. It’s been an insane ride anyway

 

[Arr0w]

I’ve never said anything about Shiel. This topic of conversation has been around my disbelief that you not only believe that rumour over the word of Connors, but you expect other to also. Not just expect, demand. In a pretty rude way. It’s been an insane ride anyway

People can believe what they want

But if you do want to stay on this course, show me where i have demanded it

 

[Pafloyul]

Interesting read. One thing that I believe is missing in the comparison with Melbourne is that they started their list over haul before Roos and Goodwin joined. So we are getting to the starting blocks at the end of this season. Next season would put us in line with their first season.

Was going to say the same thing, we are Melbourne of 2013 right now with arguably better top-end talent but also with more rubbish at the bottom.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

If we take Lukosious and presumably Ben Silvagni in this upcoming draft, we should seriously look at cashing in on Mckay who wouldnt have lost a whole lot of value since we drafted him. Norths future first might be a good option, especially as I am prepared to write off this year as a fluke and they will be bottom 8 again next year.

I like McKay and think he has potential to be a star but we simply could not carry Mckay, Kerr, Bsos, Lukosious thats before factoring in players like DeKoning & Phillips. That would be nearly 15% of our list as tall lanky forward/rucks.

No chance

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Will cost less than gaff money wise. Melbourne will want a mid to late 1st for him at worst though

I would suggest if they can secure Gaff themselves, one of our second round picks should be enough, or a PP if we get one/ apply for one etc. Going off on a tangent for a minute, Im yet to wrap my head around why anything needs to be offered for a player who is OOC. It just doesn't make any sense to me. But it is what it is I suppose.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Yep Curnow forward for mine, I think McKay will be alright but not convinced he'll be a star just yet, in fact I hold more hope for De Koning who catches my eye. Drafting a lot of talls in a rebuild, drafting a lot of tall forwards, you do it because only a few will turn out and that is what we have done. If a lot turn out and you have a surplus then some become trade bait and if they are rated well enough they can be quite valuable. Just depends if the time is now.

I know there is no talk of us getting Lynch and there won't be, we'll be keeping things tight but if we did get him then there is no need for Lukosius or McKay which makes both McKay and Pick 1 tradable in my mind. If we landed Lynch then we not only land a good player but it opens up so many trade doors for us.

The other thing is that the other Vic clubs, do they have the serious cash to get a big RFA? Perhaps we do a good deal with the suns with our picks swap and trades where they don't go hard at outbidding us...

It will be interesting to see how things work out.

Lynch is way over rated for the numbers being associated with his impending move. I am stoked that we aren't in the running for him. Reportedly anyway.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Thinking about what we need and the whole formula that I think we need to go along with. Get 6 guns by 2020 or 2021. Draftees aren't going to quite cut it after this draft in terms of us hitting our straps real early. As important as they are we should be looking to have players in their prime from 2020 to 2025. That period is when our premiership window will be open. Unless we manage to extend it which we can. The earlier we arrive the better as this gives us more time to win a flag and to win more flags.

I'm thinking a player drafted this year is going to be a lot more valuable to us than a player drafted next year. Say players drafted this year will hit their straps in 2021 to 2023 which is fine for us, it's early in what should be our window but you can add another year to those drafted in 2019.

If the draft is as strong as everyone is saying. What's the likelihood that we trade our future first (and other picks for that matter), for top 10 picks in this years draft?

I'm just thinking if we have a player some club might want, perhaps we can trade that player for a swap of first round picks? Something like that. Say St Kilda or the Bulldogs or the Suns show interest in McKay or Cuningham. Would you trade him and next years first for their first this year? Maybe throw in steak knives in the form of a second rounder?

If we trade pick one (if we get it) for two early first rounders then we could go to this years "super draft" with three early first rounders who could be three superstars in another 3-5 seasons, probably earlier as they will likely be smaller/mid sized players.

I just think timing and the timing of your players development is so crucial to winning a flag and we can't afford the rebuild and age of our players to be too drawn out. Real successful clubs often had periods where they brought in a lot of high level talent over a real short period. We know how things went for the clubs who had multiple picks and did well in the last "super draft". Can we do the same and setup a dynasty, one which may even go further than Cripp's career?

My ideal draft and trade scenario for this season would be something similar to this.

Trade 1

Out:
McKay
Next years first pick

In:
This years first rounder from another bottom side
Steak knife pick in the second round maybe.

Trade 2

Out:
Pick 1

In:
Two first round picks, one a real early pick. Maybe with the Gold Coast?

Free Agency
Lynch
Gaff?

Result
3 first round picks, at least two early and Lynch, maybe more... That's probably 4 or 5 of the 6 gun players we need to be a really good side by 2020 to 2021 ish. This helps us become a destination club, don't worry too much about next years missing first rounder. Go and get Shiel in the free agency period. That's 5 or 6 gun players. By 2020-2021 we should be really pumping if that went well.

Trading next years 1st + McKay/cunners for a first this year....

Every chance our pick next year could be pick 1 so no chance I will be doing that and would want much more than a top 10 pick.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

No chance

Why? It seems like the coaching staff now have Kerr in front of him already.

 

[Funk]

I'd love to groom TDK and McKay as alternating forward rucks.

I been saying dis for months.......

 

[jd2010]

I wasn't in favour of this zone stuff at all but with pick 1 likely to be ours we are going to have the best forward line in the competition. We just need some mids to get it down there!

 

[CJMB]

I think if we do keep pick 1 and Lukuscious is the clear best player we will have to look at trading H at some point (which is kind of why I'm happy to trade pick 1 since I still think H will be a star). Curnow looks a natural forward so I don't buy into the move to midfield stuff just yet. Unless the AFL brings in these new rules we will be too top heavy up there

Is there a reason why we can’t we have Charlie, Harry and Lukosius in the same list?

I’d have them all in the same 22...


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Juddernaut08]

I think if we do keep pick 1 and Lukuscious is the clear best player we will have to look at trading H at some point (which is kind of why I'm happy to trade pick 1 since I still think H will be a star). Curnow looks a natural forward so I don't buy into the move to midfield stuff just yet. Unless the AFL brings in these new rules we will be too top heavy up there

If H becomes a star, then we play him with Curnow and Lukosius.

Lukosius as full time
H as mostly full time (with ruck relief for TDK)
Curnow as the Riewoldt role

 

[jd2010]

Is there a reason why we can’t we have Charlie, Harry and Lukosius in the same list?

I’d have them all in the same 22...


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Without rule changes I don't see three tall forwards being the way the game gets played in the near future

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Why? It seems like the coaching staff now have Kerr in front of him already.

No they dont. Hes been unwell

 

[Juddernaut08]

Without rule changes I don't see three tall forwards being the way the game gets played in the near future

It depends on the type of tall forward.

3 buddies? No problem. He's tall but very quick, decently agile and can provide forward pressure/tackle.

It's about forward pressure and not having too many immobile players.

2 Casboults would probably be too much, let alone 3. They're slow and have a turning circle of a truck.

Luko - apparently runs all day
Charlie - super mobile, can play like a mid
H - the question mark of the 3, but he's deceptively quick (think: Joe Daniher)

 

[Faz 2000]

Draft Luko. Kitchen sink at Gaff and/or Shiel next year. Win.