Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[LanceRomance]

He was the egotistical num-nuts we had to have.

- Paul Keating

If it weren't for him and the associated fallout, we would be plodding along like norf

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Missed many more than a FEW easy shots. That stat does not include all the out of bounds on the full-go back and see how many of those there were.
Besides don't forget how many missed shots were at crucial times in games.
While I appreciate his service I look forward to the time when he is not guaranteed a spot in the 22- not because I have any sort of grudge against him rather because I want the best for the cclub and I think with some of the guys comi along we're fast approaching that time

8 by my reckoning (kicked 34.18 @56.7%), but not sure if that includes set shots that failed to make the distance and stayed in the field of play. That's one miss per 3 games nearly.
Of the 29 players that kicked the same amount of goals or more, there were 12 players that had a better conversion rate.
Compare that to Buddy who kicked 73.60 @48.7%. That's 17 misses. He's also getting 150 attempts compared to Levi's 60 attempts.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

A ke


A key position forward who is 28 and avgs 1 goal per game and has 1 30 goal season....let alone all the his other deficencies. Casboult is not the future

I think you're arguing the wrong point. I don't see anyone arguing that Levi is the future, but he is the now, whether we like it or not.
For the time being, he's a competent 'now'. Clearly we'll be better when he's forced out of the side by someone better, but that should happen naturally, not because we don't think Levi is the future.

 

[Davey33]

I think you're arguing the wrong point. I don't see anyone arguing that Levi is the future, but he is the now, whether we like it or not.
For the time being, he's a competent 'now'. Clearly we'll be better when he's forced out of the side by someone better, but that should happen naturally, not because we don't think Levi is the future.

The idea is that he should become the now of the past very soon- not because he hasn't performed sufficiently according to his limited ability....rather because we want others to become the NOW asap such as Harry Mckay, Charlie and perhaps even Pat Kerr.
And there is no reason they cant do that sooner rather than later- Charlie already averaged a goal a game last year,
Harry was tremendously athletic and exciting in his two games last year (if he had kicked straight he would've had 3 goals in each) and we know how much potential there is with some of the other guys.
So noones canning Levi for not doing enough but we are waiting impatiently to see our potential stars start showing their worth and sooner rather than later.
They have the ability and there's no reason they shouldn't be.given the opportunity to show it on the field - on the biggest stage of all as the best place to learn . We saw it with SPS and Charlie I would like to see it more. But with such a tight defensive gameplan it will be difficult- so hoping therell be more freedom there and attacking there.

With no internal expectation (officially)for onfield results we have little to lose and so much upside.
I look forward to seeing the Baby Blues rip them a new one as they super impress this year and exceed all predictions.
One things forsure, as great as Bolts has been I think he tends to be just abrade too conservative and cautious. Hopefully that will change a little this year.

Looking forward to a bumper 2018!

Oh and there's no reason HMac shouldn't kick 25-30 goals this yr-get on him now

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

The idea is that he should become the now of the past very soon- not because he hasn't performed sufficiently according to his limited ability....rather because we want others to become the NOW asap such as Harry Mckay, Charlie and perhaps even Pat Kerr.
And there is no reason they cant do that sooner rather than later- Charlie already averaged a goal a game last year,
Harry was tremendously athletic and exciting in his two games last year (if he had kicked straight he would've had 3 goals in each) and we know how much potential there is with some of the other guys.
So noones canning Levi for not doing enough but we are waiting impatiently to see our potential stars start showing their worth and sooner rather than later.
They have the ability and there's no reason they shouldn't be.given the opportunity to show it on the field - on the biggest stage of all as the best place to learn . We saw it with SPS and Charlie I would like to see it more. But with such a tight defensive gameplan it will be difficult- so hoping therell be more freedom there and attacking there.

With no internal expectation (officially)with onfield results we have little to lose and so much upside.
I look forward to seeing the Baby Blues rip them a new one as they super impress this year and exceed all predictions.
One things forsure, as great as Bolts has been I think he tends to be just abrade too conservative and cautious. Hopefully that will change a little this year.

Looking forward to a bumper 2018!

Oh and there's no reason HMac shouldn't kick 25-30 goals this yr-get on him now

"Potential stars", I think that's the problem. Both Kerr and McKay could potentially never reach the heights that Casboult is even now. McKay has never been a big goal kicker so I hope we actually wait and find out if he can change that at VFL level before we weaken our side and Play him over Casboult who is extremely important for team structure.

 

[Davey33]

"Potential stars", I think that's the problem. Both Kerr and McKay could potentially never reach the heights that Casboult is even now. McKay has never been a big goal kicker so I hope we actually wait and find out if he can change that at VFL level before we weaken our side and Play him over Casboult who is extremely important for team structure.

Interesting. http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/124164/Harry-MCKAY (includes VFL games stats)

Never did kick more than 3 goals in a VFL game but to be fair has really had so many interruptions even at that level.
Also seems to have accuracy problems...
He did kick 1.2 and 2 goals in his first two AFL games so lets hope he can continue that.

Why not let him work on his output at AFL level?

 

[Jimmae]

Why not let him work on his output at AFL level?

For me, the problem isn't whether or not he gets a game, it's how long the match committee is going to persist with Charlie, Casboult, McKay and Silvagni in the one forward line.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

8 by my reckoning (kicked 34.18 @56.7%), but not sure if that includes set shots that failed to make the distance and stayed in the field of play. That's one miss per 3 games nearly.
Of the 29 players that kicked the same amount of goals or more, there were 12 players that had a better conversion rate.
Compare that to Buddy who kicked 73.60 @48.7%. That's 17 misses. He's also getting 150 attempts compared to Levi's 60 attempts.

I’m fairly sure the goal accuracy stats do not include out of bounds on the full or fails to score.

 

[Foucault1989]

Thomas reflects the overall attacking setup within the midfield group. You can say a lot of things about Daisy, but the truth is he's probably more defensively capable through the midfield than most of the names I've mentioned, with Cuningham, Simpson and Ed being the others.

Beyond that squad of 23, there's a better argument to be made for Kerridge before anyone else if Thomas is the first name removed.




With Lang and Garlett brought onto the list, and the development of Pickett, SPS and Fisher, where does Wright fit in?

If 2 or 3 of those names aren't ready to go in terms of form and/or fitness, then it's a different story, but it's hard to make a case for a guy who generally doesn't burn off his opponent that strongly despite all that he can bring to the table as a roaming small forward.

You are the CEO of the Dale Thomas fan club. Seriously how can you stand the fancy crap that 8 times out of 10 ends in a turnover. He isn't a midfielder anymore. He is a 12 - 17 possession a game flanker and occasional winger. He isn't quick. He can't barely jump. He doesn't impact games with his dinky little short kicks. His career was over two years ago.

 

[Jimmae]

You are the CEO of the Dale Thomas fan club. Seriously how can you stand the fancy crap that 8 times out of 10 ends in a turnover. He isn't a midfielder anymore. He is a 12 - 17 possession a game flanker and occasional winger. He isn't quick. He can't barely jump. He doesn't impact games with his dinky little short kicks. His career was over two years ago.

Not one of your statements is remotely accurate.

 

[LanceRomance]

"Potential stars", I think that's the problem. Both Kerr and McKay could potentially never reach the heights that Casboult is even now. McKay has never been a big goal kicker so I hope we actually wait and find out if he can change that at VFL level before we weaken our side and Play him over Casboult who is extremely important for team structure.

Harry has what it takes

 

[Foucault1989]

Not one of your statements is remotely accurate.

How? Ive watched every game he has played for Carlton.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I’m fairly sure the goal accuracy stats do not include out of bounds on the full or fails to score.

You might be right, but there's something missing. He can't be at 56.7% with 34.18. That would be 65.4% if no other shots are included.
A break up of 34 goals, 18 behinds and 8 misses fits the 56.7% goal accuracy.

 

[Jimmae]

How? Ive watched every game he has played for Carlton. He is a joke

He was on the fringe of the team last year, and he is on the fringe of the team this year. Thomas has always had his limitations, but speed/endurance mix has never been one of them.

The ankle/foot problems caused issues with his kicking, agility and the consistency of his leap, but it was obvious to everyone that he was finally able to work through them with some continuity last year. He's got a one year contract, and he won't get another one if he isn't still in the mix at the end of the year. It's as simple as that.

As for who replaces him in the side longer term? O'Brien.

 

[Pablito]

Not one of your statements is remotely accurate.

Nah he's kinda right.

He only averaged 17.5 disposals last year and plays on the wing/forward flank

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Nah he's kinda right.

He only averaged 17.5 disposals last year and plays on the wing/forward flank

And is slow, can't jump, and doesn't impact games.

 

[ferrisb]

For me, the problem isn't whether or not he gets a game, it's how long the match committee is going to persist with Charlie, Casboult, McKay and Silvagni in the one forward line.

Are you saying we need two forwardlines?





inb4 Jim responds 'sure, we've got a 2nd one down at the NBs'.....

 

[CJMB]

You are the CEO of the Dale Thomas fan club. Seriously how can you stand the fancy crap that 8 times out of 10 ends in a turnover. He isn't a midfielder anymore. He is a 12 - 17 possession a game flanker and occasional winger. He isn't quick. He can't barely jump. He doesn't impact games with his dinky little short kicks. His career was over two years ago.

Thomas is never really in the mix with for my 'preferred 22', but I'll be surprised if he plays less than a dozen games this season. Most if not all the track watchers of late have mentioned that he appears to be rated fairly highly by coaching staff at this point in time. Some of the youngsters are still struggling with positioning and transitions while apparently Daisy does well in that regard (at least on the track).

I'd be hoping that by the end of this year we're more than covered for his type of player. Lang, SPS, Dow, O'Brien, Willo, Cuningham, Pickett, Garlett, Fisher, Polson and even Macreadie have heaps of potential and can fill his role. The problem is that group of players has an average of 13 games and an age just on 20 years. Lang adds about 30% to that average games total too with his 'massive' 44 (also worth pointing out he's in the top half of our list for experience, our median games figure is a whopping 31).

I won't be disappointed if Daisy is named in round 1. I probably will be however if the kids haven't forced him out of the team by the end of the season.

 

[AceAndy]

He was on the fringe of the team last year, and he is on the fringe of the team this year. Thomas has always had his limitations, but speed/endurance mix has never been one of them.

The ankle/foot problems caused issues with his kicking, agility and the consistency of his leap, but it was obvious to everyone that he was finally able to work through them with some continuity last year. He's got a one year contract, and he won't get another one if he isn't still in the mix at the end of the year. It's as simple as that.

As for who replaces him in the side longer term? O'Brien.

I do find it interesting there is such a divergence among posters in regard to Daisy Thomas's contribution over the last four years.

I cant think of a worse investment we have made in a player and am very surprised he has got another year contract.

As for who replaces in the side long term there are probably half a dozen blokes i would prefer to see getting games. Not sure there is any rationale in playing him at all as he is only at the club this year (i am assuming he wouldnt get another contract at years end ) and we clearly need to be getting games into the younger guys.

 

[ferrisb]

It's up to the young guys to push the brittle Daisy and make him come up out of the 22.

Only then can we ween (sic) the side off his position......

 

[TerryWallet]

And is slow, can't jump, and doesn't impact games.

All pretty much true. His playing form does not warrant a game in any AFL team imo.

But if we are gonna field a very young side, which we are, whichever senior players we play have to be value adds to our young team's FUTURE. I think it is very clear that Thomas is one of Bolton's main conduits to the young players on what he wants them doing. Bolton really rates his footy smarts and message delivery from my reading.

I'm not saying he is in our best 22. He is not in mine. But i am glad he is at the Club in 2018 on a smallish contract.

I think he'll play a bit of seniors here n there, but his main role is as a leader/teacher/conveyor/mood setter, bridging the coaches and the playing group.

Edit: cjmd pretty much covered a fair bit of my opinion in his reply as i was typing too

 

[Blue__Balls]

All pretty much true. His playing form does not warrant a game in any AFL team imo.

But if we are gonna field a very young side, which we are, whichever senior players we play have to be value adds to our young team's FUTURE. I think it is very clear that Thomas is one of Bolton's main conduits to the young players on what he wants them doing. Bolton really rates his footy smarts and message delivery from my reading.

I'm not saying he is in our best 22. He is not in mine. But i am glad he is at the Club in 2018 on a smallish contract.

I think he'll play a bit of seniors here n there, but his main role is as a leader/teacher/conveyor/mood setter, bridging the coaches and the playing group.

Edit: cjmd pretty much covered a fair bit of my opinion in his reply as i was typing too

All of this.

2016 was ultra-defensive.
2017 we added some clear changes to our transition play.
2018 it sounds like we'll be stepping up the run-and-carry, aggression and scoring intent.

We're doing this with a young, inexperienced side. You can't just teach these 18-21yo's this stuff in training drills and expect them to execute perfectly on gameday. There's an opposition team out there doing their best to beat us, through their own coached strategies as well as actively trying to negate ours. We need a sprinkling of senior players in the side that can assess the state of the game and direct the play accordingly.

We don't have many that are genuine AFL quality - Murphy, Simmo, Kreuzer, Wright, Curnow, Thomas, ASOS, Kerridge (plus Doc and Rowe out injured).

Thomas is at the back end of this group on ability/form, but by all accounts is exceptional when it comes to communication and understanding of the game. If the coaching group want players in the side to coordinate and lead, he's in the mix for sure. However the more game time the young guys get with the new structures in place, the less reliant they'll be on the senior players to direct them.

10-15 games for Thomas, pending form and fitness of others. If everyone stays fit and we see some clear development in our young guns, he may only get 10. But an injury to Simmo, Murphy, Curnow or Wright probably gets him a handful of extra games by necessity.

 

[Jimmae]

Nah he's kinda right.

He only averaged 17.5 disposals last year and plays on the wing/forward flank

Daisy only had less than 17 disposals in 4 of his 18 matches, remembering that our system seemed to punish people playing traditional wing and HF roles. Even Simpson struggled when playing pure wing, to the point where people said he was washed up.

He was arguably our highest possession outside mid all year. He is the yardstick upon which that group needs to measure themselves and surpass.

I do find it interesting there is such a divergence among posters in regard to Daisy Thomas's contribution over the last four years.

I cant think of a worse investment we have made in a player and am very surprised he has got another year contract.

As for who replaces in the side long term there are probably half a dozen blokes i would prefer to see getting games. Not sure there is any rationale in playing him at all as he is only at the club this year (i am assuming he wouldnt get another contract at years end ) and we clearly need to be getting games into the younger guys.

No one ever liked the contract (though many have tried to wildly inflate the figures), and no one wanted to lose Eddie. That is an entirely separate issue to whether or not he should be picked.

Furthermore, he's not on that salary any more, and is appropriately paid for his current output. If we can play a more high tempo style that offers him space and overlap support more through SPS, Cuningham, Fisher, O'Brien, Pickett and Garlett, his game style will see an output increase if his body and form hold to what he produced in the second half of last year.

 

[Foucault1989]

Daisy only had less than 17 disposals in 4 of his 18 matches, remembering that our system seemed to punish people playing traditional wing and HF roles. Even Simpson struggled when playing pure wing, to the point where people said he was washed up.

He was arguably our highest possession outside mid all year. He is the yardstick upon which that group needs to measure themselves and surpass.


No one ever liked the contract (though many have tried to wildly inflate the figures), and no one wanted to lose Eddie. That is an entirely separate issue to whether or not he should be picked.

Furthermore, he's not on that salary any more, and is appropriately paid for his current output. If we can play a more high tempo style that offers him space and overlap support more through SPS, Cuningham, Fisher, O'Brien, Pickett and Garlett, his game style will see an output increase if his body and form hold to what he produced in the second half of last year.

Would you not agree that Bolton places a premium on good foot skills? Daisy can't kick beyond 30 metres. Don't get me wrong I agreed with the decision to resign him for all the reasons others have pointed out and have no doubt he will play a few games mid-back end of the season when the youngsters are slowing down. However I do not think that he is in our best 22 for round one. I'd pick Kerridge over him because of his incredible running power through the midfield, although I wouldn't pick Kerridge either pending fitness and injuries. But since you have put yourself out there for critique it's only fair I do the same so here is my best 22 excluding Docherty.

Marchbank Jones/ASOS Plowman
Simpson Weitering Williamson
E. Curnow Cripps Fisher
C. Curnow Casboult Pickett
Silvagni McKay Wright
Kruezer Murphy Kennedy
SPS Dow Cuningham Lang

Emergencies: Macreadie Byrne Garlett

I would then have Mullet, Lamb, KerriDge and potentially O Brien ahead of Daisy.

The starting forward line looks tall but look at the run and versatility on the bench

 

[Iamcarlton]

Would you not agree that Bolton places a premium on good foot skills? Daisy can't kick beyond 30 metres. Don't get me wrong I agreed with the decision to resign him for all the reasons others have pointed out and have no doubt he will play a few games mid-back end of the season when the youngsters are slowing down. However I do not think that he is in our best 22 for round one. I'd pick Kerridge over him because of his incredible running power through the midfield, although I wouldn't pick Kerridge either pending fitness and injuries. But since you have put yourself out there for critique it's only fair I do the same so here is my best 22 excluding Docherty.

Marchbank Jones/ASOS Plowman
Simpson Weitering Williamson
E. Curnow Cripps Fisher
C. Curnow Casboult Pickett
Silvagni McKay Wright
Kruezer Murphy Kennedy
SPS Dow Cuningham Lang

Emergencies: Macreadie Byrne Garlett

I would then have Mullet, Lamb, KerriDge and potentially O Brien ahead of Daisy.

The starting forward line looks tall but look at the run and versatility on the bench

Fairly close to how the side may look come rd1 as most of the sides posted are . Oodles of talent but i still dont feel comfortable with the amount of talls we are playing especially back . Much rather see Byrne down back and one less tall who i dont know and most likely wont happen . That forwardline looks good but are we going to be able to apply enough forward pressure on defences to keep the ball locked in enough . I doubt it . Yes lots of run on the bench and we'll need it . If we go in with a side like this with 9 talls and we probably will . I suspect the want for a faster tempo game may not last that long and we could be playing an ultra defensive game once again . Could be way off the mark but id love to see more running players in the side .