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Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

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Fairly close to how the side may look come rd1 as most of the sides posted are . Oodles of talent but i still dont feel comfortable with the amount of talls we are playing especially back . Much rather see Byrne down back and one less tall who i dont know and most likely wont happen . That forwardline looks good but are we going to be able to apply enough forward pressure on defences to keep the ball locked in enough . I doubt it . Yes lots of run on the bench and we'll need it . If we go in with a side like this with 9 talls and we probably will . I suspect the want for a faster tempo game may not last that long and we could be playing an ultra defensive game once again . Could be way off the mark but id love to see more running players in the side .
I tend to agree but I guess you could have one of Silvagni, Charlie, McKay and Caaboult on the bench at a time, which means there would be an extra runner on the ground. I'd imagine plowman will play Docherty's role in defence or will pick up mid sized forwards (Bruest, Elliot, Greene and so forth) and Weitering might play a bit looser as an intercepting defender. And Charlie might be tall but he has a midfielders tank so he will spend some time either in the midfield or as that up the ground lead up forward which will reduce congestion in the forward 50. Likewise I think SOSOS plays that lead up link forward well. I wouldn't mind seeing Bryne in the side as well though just not sure who to drop
 
Would you not agree that Bolton places a premium on good foot skills? Daisy can't kick beyond 30 metres. Don't get me wrong I agreed with the decision to resign him for all the reasons others have pointed out and have no doubt he will play a few games mid-back end of the season when the youngsters are slowing down. However I do not think that he is in our best 22 for round one. I'd pick Kerridge over him because of his incredible running power through the midfield, although I wouldn't pick Kerridge either pending fitness and injuries. But since you have put yourself out there for critique it's only fair I do the same so here is my best 22 excluding Docherty.

Marchbank Jones/ASOS Plowman
Simpson Weitering Williamson
E. Curnow Cripps Fisher
C. Curnow Casboult Pickett
Silvagni McKay Wright
Kruezer Murphy Kennedy
SPS Dow Cuningham Lang

Emergencies: Macreadie Byrne Garlett

I would then have Mullet, Lamb, KerriDge and potentially O Brien ahead of Daisy.

The starting forward line looks tall but look at the run and versatility on the bench
Not confident in Jones/ think ASOS is the better key defender?
 
I’m looking forward to seeing how our forward line functions with a more attacking game plan this year. Tough position to play last year with the slow ball movement.
 
Would you not agree that Bolton places a premium on good foot skills? Daisy can't kick beyond 30 metres. Don't get me wrong I agreed with the decision to resign him for all the reasons others have pointed out and have no doubt he will play a few games mid-back end of the season when the youngsters are slowing down. However I do not think that he is in our best 22 for round one. I'd pick Kerridge over him because of his incredible running power through the midfield, although I wouldn't pick Kerridge either pending fitness and injuries. But since you have put yourself out there for critique it's only fair I do the same so here is my best 22 excluding Docherty.

Marchbank Jones/ASOS Plowman
Simpson Weitering Williamson
E. Curnow Cripps Fisher
C. Curnow Casboult Pickett
Silvagni McKay Wright
Kruezer Murphy Kennedy
SPS Dow Cuningham Lang

Emergencies: Macreadie Byrne Garlett

I would then have Mullet, Lamb, KerriDge and potentially O Brien ahead of Daisy.

The starting forward line looks tall but look at the run and versatility on the bench
If Bolton placed priority on footskills above all else, this is how the 22 would look:

FB: Macreadie ASOS Byrne
HB: Mullett Weitering Williamson
C: Murphy Lang O'Brien
HF: Wright Curnow Garlett
FF: Silvagni McKay Pickett

R: Lobbe Kennedy Dow

Int: SPS, Fisher, Lamb, Cuningham

But, he doesn't. He recognises that you need good mechanics alongside good decision making and execution under pressure, which is a wide umbrella of fitness, game sense and knowledge and the experience (match day or continual tactical development) to know how and where to execute the skills.

The fact that you've got Fisher named on the wing tells you everything you need to know about why Thomas is still in the mix still.
 

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Only managed to view the one training session down at South Melbourne this off-season. Just some random flognostications.

Keep tabs on the following:
  • Charlie Curnow - Forget the talk about "looks a beast" (which he does) and "looks ripped" (which he also does), the thing that really impressed me was that he really looks exceptionally strong and developed through the core now. Expect a more powerful player in terms of being able to shake off a would-be tackler like Robert Harvey used to do. Once he gets a real handle on what he's capable of, Charlie will start putting some really exciting quarters together during the 2nd half of the season.
  • Jacob Weitering - Another who's matured through the core over summer and walks with renewed purpose. Looking forward to seeing him quietly taking over games with his intercept marking and directing traffic out of the back half.
  • Harrison Macreadie - Even though he'll need another preseason or two to fully develop into his physical potential, his body shape has changed quite noticeably over the summer and now resembles that of an AFL footballer. Has good acceleration, excellent speed, strong endurance, a nice side step and reads the flight of the ball very well. I expect him to force his way into our best 22 during the first half of the season. Given that Rowe & ASOS aren't longterm solutions and that Marchbank & Plowman have proven to be somewhat injury-prone, talk of trading Macreadie is pure nonsense.
Walking the tightrope:
  • Darcy Lang - I'm nowhere near as bullish about Lang's prospects as many on this board. Despite being serviced by a very dominant contested midfield which included the likes of Selwood, Dangerfield, Duncan, Menegola, Guthrie, etc, Lang only managed to find himself with the ball in his possession 15 times per game on average. That's one less time than the contact-shy Boekhorst managed to get on the end of the chain and we were missing Cripps & Ed from the equation just to put it in some perspective. Credit where credit's due, one area that Lang really developed during 2017 was the defensive side of his game. While some may point to a lack of opportunity at the Cats, one needs to remember that the likes of Bews, Murdoch, McCarthy & Parsons were often preferred options and none of those players are exactly known for "lighting it up". There's a reason why SOS refused to part with more than a 4th Round pick in a shitty draft for Lang and until he begins to produce on a regular basis I see him as another "stocking filler" in the mould of Sumner, Lamb, Phillips, Smedts, Shaw, Gorringe, Buckley, Boekhorst, Jaksch, etc. Here's hoping he proves me wrong.
  • Harry McKay - Really needs to find a way to get his body right. All the potential in the world means diddly squat if you can't get on the park. While McKay's in absolutely no danger of being delisted any time soon, SOS isn't one to sit on his hands and young Harry may find himself having to contend with more than just Ben Silvagni looking to leapfrog him. Harry performing well may just prove to be the difference between SOS using our first pick on a KPF such as Lukosius, Williams or one of the King Bros or spending it on a mid such as Bytel, Walsh or Rankine.
  • Andrew Phillips - When up and running big Sauce is a very good tap ruckman, but therein lies the problem.....how to get him up & running??? Injury & Phillips seem to go hand-in-hand, and even when fit Phillips needs plenty of work under his belt before he hits his stride. Was the drafting of De Koning the first sign that SOS has shifted his gaze elsewhere???
Much ado 'bout nuthin':
  • Lachie Plowman - Bemused how many people here can't fit young Lachie into their best 22, generally because of height. Interesting fact was that last season he was generally matched up against small forwards where he excelled and IMO was our second best defender behind Docherty. Given that 2017 was easily Plowman's best season and his kicking is rated as elite, I can't see me pushing him out of my best 22 any time soon.
  • Matty Wright - Another who's under-appreciated and under-valued, most probably because we picked him up as a delisted free agent. As a small forward who can also play as a genuine midfielder no one else on our list approaches his output inside F50. Not Murphy, not Garlett, not Pickett, not Lang, not SPS, not Fisher, not Cuningham.....no one. "If only Levi could kick straight"....."Jack's figures would look so much better if he kicked 25.11 instead of 19.17" I hear everyone say. In a world where accuracy in front of goal is spiralling down the S-bend Wright flushes it 78% of the time and is an elite kick at goal. My biggest complaint about Matty Wright is that we don't use him enough inside 50. When and if SPS, Fisher, Garlett, Pickett, Cuningham and/or Lang demonstrate they can perform that role better than Wright then they can have his spot, but not before. At this stage he's light years ahead of our other small forward/mids.
  • Jack Silvagni - Given JSOS wasn't expected to play any senior footy for 2 years after we drafted him, fair to say 28 games later that he's ahead of the curve most of us would've set for him after he was drafted. In many ways his future could be tied to the fortunes of Harry McKay. Should SOS choose to cover his bases due to a lack of performance from McKay, drafting players such as Lukocius or Williams along with the BOSS could prove fatal for Jack's future at the Blues.
New Blood:
  • Paddy Dow - Barring injury will definitely play Round 1. Is it just me or does Dow look taller than his allotted 184cm??? Certainly looks taller than O'Brien who is listed at the same height. Reads the ball off hands or feet quicker than most so expect a lot of intercept possessions from him. Needs to tidy up his kicking though.
  • Lochie O'Brien - Will need to spend some time at VFL level to improve the contested side of his game before being unleashed at AFL level. No one expects him to become a Crippsesque inside beast, but you'd like to think he'd have a good chance of ending up with the ball in a one-on-one contest. Already has the disposal skills, speed and endurance to cope at AFL level. Would expect to see him debut at some point this season.
  • Tom De Koning - Highly contentious taking this kid with Pick 30 for mine based upon what I saw of him at the U18 Champs. Was there a case for taking a developing ruckman??? Sure.....but a project player with Pick 30??? Not sure he has the natural aggression to play the role and he certainly doesn't have the endurance required. On the positive side, he does have good hands, leads up hard and fast at the ball carrier when playing up forward and is a nice kick. Would much rather SOS had taken another contested (balanced or inside) mid here. Having said that, here's to hoping De Koning makes every post a winner.
Wild Cards:
  • Jarrod Pickett - According to the scribes Pickett's had a strong preseason and elevated his fitness levels considerably. Always looks a much better player when he presents up at the ball carrier rather than forever ducking out the back looking for the lazy gimme over the top. Would much prefer seeing him play percentage football by playing in front where he remains in the contest should the ball be spoiled or deflected from its intended path. Important year for Pickett.
  • Jarrod Garlett - Did you know that 50% of Garlett's possessions in his 2nd year at the Suns were contested??? Has very strong hands in the stoppage does Mr Garlett and is quite adept at ripping the ball out of an opponent's grasp. Wouldn't mind seeing him handed over to Fraser, Amos & Stanton to be developed at VFL level as a balanced mid. While Garlett would seem to have all the attributes to perform this role my main queries concern whether he has the endurance and the ability to find enough of the ball to warrant using him in that position. Had a very ordinary year at WAFL level last year so has the job in front of him with the step up in class. As for the ******* hair-do??? FMD.
Treading Water:
  • Don't panic if SPS, Fisher, Macreadie &/or Williamson don't seem to make much headway this season. Think most second year players find the preseason a genuine slog while their bodies still try to cope with the increased workload. Just ask Weitering, SOSOS & Cunners.
  • People will need to temper their expectations of Matthew Kennedy after having a heavily disrupted preseason. May be well into the 2nd half of the season before he begins to really display his wares.
List Needs:
  • 2 X KPF - Not yet sold on Harry, SOSOS is a work in progress and Kerr is a project player.
  • 4 X Contested Mids - 2 Inside Mids & 2 Balanced Mids. Still think our midfield is easily the weakest part of our team and those currently on our list really suck when it comes to running both ways and applying defensive pressure. You can have 2 Rances, 3 Levers and 4 Dochertys in the back half, but unless the midfield are prepared to do their share the defence will always struggle.
  • 2 X Quality Ruckmen - Notice the use of the word "quality" as opposed to "project" Ruckmen.
  • I know Kinghtmare copped a caning for giving SOS a D+ for his draft efforts this year, but I don't think he was all that far off the mark. Between his trading & drafting I could only give him a "C". Last season we finished 17th for clearances, 17th for inside 50s and last for goals scored. For me this emphasised our need for contested mids (both balanced & inside), yet out of the 12 players SOS bought into the club he could only snare 2.
Trade Targets:
  • Brodie Smith (Crows RFA) - There aren't many running defenders you'd put in the same "elite class" (and I don't throw that phrase around lightly) as Docherty, but Smith is certainly one of them. Given that the Crows are up to Pussy's Bow with their TPP and Smith will be coming off a knee reco means he may not get the contract he's hoping for. Potentially frees up Williamson or Byrne to play up on a wing or in the middle. Nice size with excellent speed, endurance and exceptional disposal by foot who can play tall or small. Would be surprised if something like $1.75m-$2m over 4 years wouldn't get the job done.
  • Mitch Wallis (Doggies RFA) - One who genuinely flies under the radar of supporters from opposition clubs. I find myself tossing up whether to rank him as an "A" or "B" grade inside mid, but around 75% of his disposals result in retained possession. So not only does he find the ball in the stoppage, but 3 times out of 4 he does something positive with it. There's nothing overly flash about Wallis, he just runs all day and gets the job done without fuss or fanfare. The Wallis blood runs deep down at the Western Oval and he's considered a heart & soul player there so I'm not sure how easy it would be to get him to move. Think you'd need to offer at least $500-$550k for 4 years to make it happen. I suspect these are the deals we acquired Agresta to assist with.
Draft Targets:

Way too early for this, but I'll take a stab based upon what I think we still need.
  • 1st Rounder - Best Mid available. Adding Rankine/Walsh & Wallis to SPS, Dow, Fisher, O'Brien, Cripps & Kennedy would really make for a pretty strong midfield.....well at least on paper anyway.
  • 2nd Rounder (1) Best Available Ruck. Can't see Williams being available this low down, but Riley Bowman may well be. Probably the best performed underage ruck from last years TAC comp.
  • 2nd Rounder (2) Will probably be forced to take the BOSS as a Father/Son here.
Still think we'll find it pretty tough this year, but expect the likes of Weitering, Charlie, Cuningham and, to a lesser extent, SOSOS to get hold of some games in the second half of the season. Next year will be the time we begin to Serge back up the ladder. Would much prefer to see how Garlett, Macreadie, Kerridge, Dow, O'Brien & Lang perform in the JLT series before naming a Round 1 potential 22.
Literally never seen anyone leave Plowman out of a 22.
 
If Bolton placed priority on footskills above all else, this is how the 22 would look:

FB: Macreadie ASOS Byrne
HB: Mullett Weitering Williamson
C: Murphy Lang O'Brien
HF: Wright Curnow Garlett
FF: Silvagni McKay Pickett

R: Lobbe Kennedy Dow

Int: SPS, Fisher, Lamb, Cuningham

But, he doesn't. He recognises that you need good mechanics alongside good decision making and execution under pressure, which is a wide umbrella of fitness, game sense and knowledge and the experience (match day or continual tactical development) to know how and where to execute the skills.

The fact that you've got Fisher named on the wing tells you everything you need to know about why Thomas is still in the mix still.
Execution under pressure? I suggest you watch a few replays. Everytime Daisy gets confronted with pressure he slams in on the boot or tries something ridiculous. I have Fisher lined up on the wing there but upon reflection I'd probably start Lang on a wing and Fisher switching from half forward to wing. Fisher also has great skills and hands and I think in the near future he will be a very good footballer.

With respect to experience, which is the only reason you'd pick Daisy, I think we have enough in the starting line up. Daisy would be a good training and off field mentor. The game has moved past him.

Time will tell I guess.
 
I'm undecided to be honest. I love the aggression ASOS brings to the defence. I feel like all the young defenders stand a bit taller with him around. But Jones was incredible and I love watching him in action
You’re right about that sort of leadership Asos shows. Perhaps he slots into a bench spot? I just don’t think Jones can be passed over but quite like the idea of squeezing ASOS into the team somewhere. He brings some brilliant intangibles.
 
You’re right about that sort of leadership Asos shows. Perhaps he slots into a bench spot? I just don’t think Jones can be passed over but quite like the idea of squeezing ASOS into the team somewhere. He brings some brilliant intangibles.
Yeah it is a pretty good dilemma to have though. I'd rather be undecided about the precise makeup of the team rather than struggling to fill the spots with quality players. I also love how whenever a scuffle breaks out Tom Williamson is rushing over for a push and shove
 
I'm undecided to be honest. I love the aggression ASOS brings to the defence. I feel like all the young defenders stand a bit taller with him around. But Jones was incredible and I love watching him in action


I think from a pure football sense ASOS is the better player, but injuries have cursed his career.
 
I’d pick ASOS and Plowman in front of Marchbank at this stage. We need experience and leadership down there without docherty.

Byrne jones Plowman
Simpson Weitering ASOS

Now that’s a back line.
 
On top of the KPIs you mentioned above I think you also have to consider that relief ruck role Levi plays. Is Harry ready to handle that? If not Harry, who else?
.

Maybe Lobbe could?
He is more a ruck / forward than a forward / ruck but I just do not have enough knowledge of his form this preseason to say that he will replace Levi round one.
 

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I do find it interesting there is such a divergence among posters in regard to Daisy Thomas's contribution over the last four years.
I cant think of a worse investment we have made in a player and am very surprised he has got another year contract. Steve O'reilly, Mick Martin, etc
As for who replaces in the side long term there are probably half a dozen blokes i would prefer to see getting games. Not sure there is any rationale in playing him at all as he is only at the club this year (i am assuming he wouldnt get another contract at years end ) and we clearly need to be getting games into the younger guys.

We have a young side now who need on field instruction as well as examples of structure, this is where I see the coaches using Thomas and Levi.
Thomas gets what the coaches want, now if Murphy, Cripps and the rest of the leaders do their job on field he will not be needed. I believe that he will spend most of his games on the bench this year.
 
With the recent adjustments to the list (ie. over the past 2-3 years), the number of players who are "under the microscope" is getting smaller & smaller.

From my perspective, the ones who will come under scrutiny are :

Murphy - retire in a couple of years time
Simpson - retire
Kerridge - maybe, maybe not
Lamb - in limbo now
Garlett - thrown a lifeline, needs to take it
Rowe - retire
Mullett - short-term option only
O'Shea - short term option only
Phillips/Lobbe - one of them may not last much longer
Polson - may need to press his claims more
Graham - time to deliver or else
Thomas - retire
Casboult - short-term option only
Wright - retire
Cuningham - may need to press his claims more
Kerr - may need to press his claims more

I'm not suggesting that all of those named will automatically be dispensed with, just that that is where the changes will come from going forward.

The best part about that list is that it is largely made up of players who are on the verge of retirement, short-term options or some of the youngers guys who still have the chance to make the grade.

The list is looking healthier & healthier and there is real competition for places in the senior team, no-one gets "gifted" a game now.
 
Maybe Lobbe could?
He is more a ruck / forward than a forward / ruck but I just do not have enough knowledge of his form this preseason to say that he will replace Levi round one.
Lobbe is more of a traditional ruckman, not a ruck-fwd. I just can't see him playing the same time as Kreuzer under normal circumstances. Same goes for Phillips, I reckon it's only gonna be one of our dedicated ruckmen playing each week. The only way I could see it happening would be if we have a heap of our talls missing.

AS a bit of a sidenote, for what it's worth:
Lobbe at his peak in 2014: 11 disp, 7 contested pos, 2 marks, 0.3 goals, 6 tackles, 33 hitouts, 1.4 in50, 3.1 clearances, 3.2 clangers, 65% TOG.
Kreuzer last year: 15 disp, 10 contested pos, 3 marks, 3 marks, 0.6 goals, 5 tackles, 32 hitouts, 2.6 in50, 4.3 clearances, 2.3 clangers, 85% TOG.
 
With the recent adjustments to the list (ie. over the past 2-3 years), the number of players who are "under the microscope" is getting smaller & smaller.

From my perspective, the ones who will come under scrutiny are :

Murphy - retire in a couple of years time
Simpson - retire
Kerridge - maybe, maybe not
Lamb - in limbo now
Garlett - thrown a lifeline, needs to take it
Rowe - retire
Mullett - short-term option only
O'Shea - short term option only
Phillips/Lobbe - one of them may not last much longer
Polson - may need to press his claims more
Graham - time to deliver or else
Thomas - retire
Casboult - short-term option only
Wright - retire
Cuningham - may need to press his claims more
Kerr - may need to press his claims more

I'm not suggesting that all of those named will automatically be dispensed with, just that that is where the changes will come from going forward.

The best part about that list is that it is largely made up of players who are on the verge of retirement, short-term options or some of the youngers guys who still have the chance to make the grade.

The list is looking healthier & healthier and there is real competition for places in the senior team, no-one gets "gifted" a game now.
Good summary i agree with all that except Lamb, thought he played his role and played it well. I think and i hope that he becomes a player for us. Even if it's just as a role player.
 
Just wanted to ask fellow CFC supporters who they believe, out of Levi Casboult, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Jack Silvagni and Pat Kerr, are:

1. The best set shot for goal?
2. The best shot for goal on the run?
3. The best short pass by foot (15-30m)?
4. The best long pass by foot (30m+)?
5. The best lead up mark?
6. The best overhead mark?

Given that we haven't seen any of Kerr and very little of McKay at AFL level, please feel free to judge on their peeformances in the 2nds and at training.

Cheers
 
Lobbe is more of a traditional ruckman, not a ruck-fwd. I just can't see him playing the same time as Kreuzer under normal circumstances. Same goes for Phillips, I reckon it's only gonna be one of our dedicated ruckmen playing each week. The only way I could see it happening would be if we have a heap of our talls missing.
Yup, but he'll be a better forward target than Phillips, that much is clear.
 

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Just wanted to ask fellow CFC supporters who they believe, out of Levi Casboult, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Jack Silvagni and Pat Kerr, are:

1. The best set shot for goal? Kerr
2. The best shot for goal on the run? Charlie
3. The best short pass by foot (15-30m)? Silvagni
4. The best long pass by foot (30m+)? Charlie
5. The best lead up mark? Kerr/Silvagni
6. The best overhead mark? Casboult

Given that we haven't seen any of Kerr and very little of McKay at AFL level, please feel free to judge on their peeformances in the 2nds and at training.

Cheers
 
Just wanted to ask fellow CFC supporters who they believe, out of Levi Casboult, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Jack Silvagni and Pat Kerr, are:

1. The best set shot for goal?
2. The best shot for goal on the run?
3. The best short pass by foot (15-30m)?
4. The best long pass by foot (30m+)?
5. The best lead up mark?
6. The best overhead mark?

Given that we haven't seen any of Kerr and very little of McKay at AFL level, please feel free to judge on their peeformances in the 2nds and at training.

Cheers

1. The best set shot for goal? Kerr
2. The best shot for goal on the run? McKay
3. The best short pass by foot (15-30m)? Silvagni
4. The best long pass by foot (30m+)? Curnow
5. The best lead up mark? Curnow
6. The best overhead mark? Casboult

Considerations:
- Kerr isn't playing under anywhere near as much inferred/crowd pressure in the VFL as others do at AFL level.
- McKay has looked at his most natural when playing on and snapping, seems dangerous from just about anywhere - suspect Charlie might also do damage on the run though.
- Don't often see short passes from key forwards as they're typically kicking for goal, SOS lacks the penetration and so dishes off a bit more.
- Allowing for a bit of natural growth in Charlie for the lead-up mark category - his endurance, leap, hands and strength puts him ahead of others for me.
- Casboult still the king of stationary contested marks, but Charlie and McKay may push for this spot given their natural strengths.
 
Just wanted to ask fellow CFC supporters who they believe, out of Levi Casboult, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Jack Silvagni and Pat Kerr, are:

1. The best set shot for goal? McKay
2. The best shot for goal on the run? McKay
3. The best short pass by foot (15-30m)? McKay
4. The best long pass by foot (30m+)? Charlie
5. The best lead up mark? Kerr
6. The best overhead mark? Charlie
 
Jimmae, do you have a preference for tall forwards over the next 1-2 years?

Charlie, Harry & Jack
Charlie, Harry & Kerr
Charlie & Harry
Charlie & Kerr
Charlie, Casboult & Jack
Charlie, Harry & Weit
etc..

Assuming remaining spots are smaller types plus probably 1 resting midfielder. Looking at your ratings does that mean you'd have Kerr ahead of Jack or is it just that he's a better lead up mark but wouldn't be ahead of Jack?...
 
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