Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[Funk]

Exactly. None of these moves have been made to win today but to win in the future.

You're a lazy bastard.

39 posts in 7 years?

Please post more.

 

[Funk]

I understand the whole taking one step back to go two forwards
it's really not about that
for me too many of our kids are already out of favour or struggling
looked at soapies list and some of those are going to be delisted this year even
others are not even rated
so many others are struggling


I'm finding it hard to see what we have that's going to move us right past other teams

The list and development are a worry but culture is the main problem
that's not going to just suddenly turn around
we will have won 2 or 3 games out of 30 by the end of this season

we won't be bringing in too many high quality senior players unless some inspired recruiting happens
our players never even learnt a thing as a team this season
I see the whole thing a dogs breakfast

Completely disagree.

Screwing up 8 consecutive drafts is "the main problem".

I cant understand how you can't see this and keep blaming the current management for the sins of the past.

The people we have are doing a good job in challenging circumstances.

Take a deep breath, put a hold on the negativity (no you're definitely not being a "realist") and seriously ask yourself what would you have done to build a potential Premiership winning team.

It most definitely wouldn't have been to keep Menzel, Yarran, Henderson and Bell - who have contributed a total of 2 AFL games between them this year.

I reckon you could win $10 million in Lotto and still be bitter you didn't win $20 million like someone else did 7 years ago!!!

 

[Funk]

Who knows where our young talent will take us we haven't even seen the finished product yet and wont for a few years. I know where our side back then was taking us and it was shite.

Absolutely correct.

Paying 100% TPP and bottom of the ladder - we were killing it!

 

[Funk]

I'm coming from a fair way back here so lets see how this goes, I could end up giving Jimmae's multi-quote record a red hot crack here:



There's a bit more to the family stuff than you're aware of and as result you're off the mark.



Did you listen to Tom claim his dad was at the helm for 6 premierships? Or how MLG is a 'dictator' because they elected new board members in the manner that they are directed to via the club constitution?

Tom is a muppett and the only connection he should have with the club is being a paid up member. He's like a one man band version of the Richmond 'Focus On Footy' group but with less idea of what's going on and much more public outcry. If I had my way I'd have a moratorium on anyone in the Elliot family being involved with CFC. The CFC motto is Mens sana in coropre sano which means "a sound mind in a healthy body"... I'd say it should read Mens sana in coropre sano, sine Elliot



Geez you're fun. Maybe you need a break from it? Come back in a couple of years.

We got Kennedy out of Gibbs too.
Last week Gibbs kicked 1 goal, had 21 disposals at 66% efficiency (14 effective disposals), 9 of them contested, 7 marks, 3 tackles, 12 pressure acts, 281 metres, 3 clearances. If you take the average of Kennedy and O'Brien from the last game it's 24 disposals at 81% efficiency (20 effective disposals), 8 of them contested, 5 marks, 2.5 tackles, 18.5 pressure acts, 268 metres, 4 clearances. Being optimistic Gibbs has maybe 80-90 odd AFL games left in the tank, would think that Kennedy & O'Brien could easily have another 400 between them.

Doesn't seem all that diabolical to me.



Keep in mind that a good chunk of those wins last year were in the first half with Docherty, Cripps, Ed & Gibbs plus Kreuzer & Murph were flying.



Gowers has said that he didn't work hard enough and getting delisted was the kick up the **** he needed to make a change. I would have like to perhaps see Holman get another year too but lets not pretend he's doing a Tim Kelly and exploding onto the scene; the guy averages 13 disposals and is basically playing each week because he's a big body in the middle who makes 6 tackles a game.



I agree, no messiah's or quick fixes here. There's no point in going through all of this to 'give up' and take the easy way out without seeing it all through. I think the club has been fairly honest about younger player development, we've heard quite often the phrase "it's not linear".

I don't see us needing to 'add' a year to the rebuild, come 2019 I'm expecting our total turnover from the 66 games (& 4 trade/draft periods) to be up around the 50-52 mark (we're at 42 now). I'd be hanging onto our top line seniors until they retire (Murph, Simmo, Kreuzer, Ed) and keeping a few of the other older guys as depth/backup (Wright, Casboult, Phillips or Lobbe, Kerridge) until their contracts are up or maybe an extension for a couple of them. Then there's guys like Jones who is a bit less certain for me, probably gets extended (currently contracted for next year) but after that I'm not sure.

Our current injury woes have forced us into playing the senior depth players who were meant to strengthen the VFL and give us the occasional chop out in the seniors when younger players needed to be managed or got injured.

This week we'll probably see Thomas and Rowe come in for Jones and Fisher. Taking that team and then comparing the changes to our potential round 1 team (without counting any offseason acquisitions) we're likely to see names like Lobbe, Thomas, Rowe, Graham, Shaw, Casboult, Wright (& others) replaced by some of Kreuzer, Docherty, Fisher, Plowman, Jones, Williamson, Byrne, Cuningham, Lang, Garlett, Kerr... then next year I reckon Schumacher & De Koning might work their way in and get a game or two.


Kreuzer, Browne, Armfield, Pfieffer, Joseph, Hill, Ellard, Shields, Yarran, Robinson, O'Keefe, Tiller, Garlett, Stanton, Bentley, Jacobs, Lucas, Davies, Kerr, Cachia, Dare, Casboult, White, Donaldson, Tuohy, Watson, McCarthy, Mitchell, McInnes, Duigan, Curnow, Twomey, Carter, Bray, Bootsma, Rowe, Buckley, Bell, Heyne, Dale, Lodge, Menzel, Temay, Graham, Collins, Cripps, Giles, Holman, Reynolds, Wood, Johnson, Sheehan, Byrne, Boekhorst, Viojo-Rainbow, Smith, Foster, Tutt, Gowers, Walsh, Fields, Russell.

That's 62 players we picked up in the ND & RD between 2007 & 2014. 7 are still on our list and another 8 are still playing AFL. 3 of those at other clubs were delisted (Gowers, Buckley & Holman). I'd argue next year those numbers could very well be 5 CFC & as low as 5 or 6 elsewhere. Still, looking at this year, 15 from 62 is a pretty horrible number (24%), but the fact that we've still only got 7 from that 62 (11%) on our list is damning, and on of, if not the major component as to why we are where we are.



Good call, was without a doubt his best game for us. Maybe it's starting to 'click' with him.



...and considering Lobbe was our only fit ruckman last week it's hard to deem the call an outright failure. Plus he's a nice 'place holder' on some cap space while he's playing that backup role.

Stories tend to be rubbish if there's no conflict or anything to overcome. The story of #17 should be a ripper... and will probably rival LOTR for run time...



I'd pass on Griffen. Can't stay on the park, walked out of the dogs while captain to chase success and evade the 'Melbourne bubble'.


Winner winner...

What about furthest from the pin?.. the 2014/15 side was one of the oldest in the comp and most of the players weren't exactly on an upwards trajectory as far as on-field output goes. It wasn't a write-off/total-loss but hell it wasn't that far off it. The options were to hard rebuild - rip the bandaid off - and try and fix the list quickly with mass changes and bringing as much talented kids in the door as possible or do it slowly over a decade or more, most likely being a perennial 8-12th placed team.
Aye, aye

I'm flattered to be included in "multi quote of the year".

PS - agree with everything you've said.

 

[Carl]

You're a lazy bastard.

39 posts in 7 years?

Please post more.

I thought my 459 in 18 years was bad.

 

[AceAndy]

I thought my 459 in 18 years was bad.

Pretty ordinary, need to lift Carl

 

[Jeremias]

I thought my 459 in 18 years was bad.

459?

That’s just an average morning session for HBF

 

[Robert Heatley]

We gave Adelaide our 3rd rounder in Gibbs trade. Looks like Gibbs will end up being worth about pick 6 after all the swap of picks going on this year's ladder.

As the ladder stands, we currently have 1, 23, 25, 64, 73 then whatever happens after that.

In simple terms, if we delist 5 players, do no trades and get priority pick 19, we effectively upgrade pick 73 to 19.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

There are good stories in @CarltonFC's season if you bother to dig...

Don't you believe that the additional disposals and extra ground covered can be more attributed to spending more time in the ruck vs being mostly just a key forward in a forward line that didn't receive too many opportunities then spending time in the VFL?

 

[DirkDiggler]

If ever there is a year to sacrifice our first rounder draft pick it its next years. We obviously need to accelerate our midfield build and I dont think chasing free agents like Wallis is the way forward. Hypothetically speaking, I would consider picking up an emerging big bodied mid like Will Setterfield who hasn't kicked on due to injury interrupted seasons and Shiel who can come in and immediately support Cripps for Carlton's next years first draft pick and maybe PP thrown in as well. It would hopefully inject some much need class into our midfield.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

and Shiel who can come in and immediately support Cripps for Carlton's next years first draft pick and maybe PP thrown in as well.

FMD

 

[DirkDiggler]

FMD

Think I am being optimistic?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Think I am being optimistic?

1. How does Shiel support Cripps? He isnt that type of player.
2. You want to give up next years pick 1-4 and a (if we get a pp) pick about 19 for a guy thats free 12 months time

 

[DirkDiggler]

1. How does Shiel support Cripps? He isnt that type of player.
At the moment we have one gun midfielder who is heavily tagged every week. No team is going to place a tag on Kennedy Dow or Curnow. Shiel can also find his own ball.

2. You want to give up next years pick 1-4 and a (if we get a pp) pick about 19 for a guy thats free 12 months time

Setterfield was formerly a pick 5 and highly regarded by CFC. Combined they would probably be worth our first rounder. Cant see us finishing bottom four next year to be honest. Shiels may be free but we arent exactly a club of choice particularly if competing clubs like St kilda and North choose to do a trade deal with GWS this year.
The fact is we have been bypassed by players who preferred to sign up at Essendon.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Setterfield was formerly a pick 5 and highly regarded by CFC. Combined they would probably be worth our first rounder. Cant see us finishing bottom four next year to be honest. Shiels may be free but we arent exactly a club of choice particularly if competing clubs like St kilda and North choose to do a trade deal with GWS this year.
The fact is we have been bypassed by players who preferred to sign up at Essendon.

Ok keep believing we wont be bottom 4 next year.

And Shiel will choose where he wants to go. Any other team wanting to trade won't get it done. Its been mentioned for many years now he wants to finish his career at Carlton.

 

[Azzurro]

I'm coming from a fair way back here so lets see how this goes, I could end up giving Jimmae's multi-quote record a red hot crack here:



There's a bit more to the family stuff than you're aware of and as result you're off the mark.



Did you listen to Tom claim his dad was at the helm for 6 premierships? Or how MLG is a 'dictator' because they elected new board members in the manner that they are directed to via the club constitution?

Tom is a muppett and the only connection he should have with the club is being a paid up member. He's like a one man band version of the Richmond 'Focus On Footy' group but with less idea of what's going on and much more public outcry. If I had my way I'd have a moratorium on anyone in the Elliot family being involved with CFC. The CFC motto is Mens sana in coropre sano which means "a sound mind in a healthy body"... I'd say it should read Mens sana in coropre sano, sine Elliot



Geez you're fun. Maybe you need a break from it? Come back in a couple of years.

We got Kennedy out of Gibbs too.
Last week Gibbs kicked 1 goal, had 21 disposals at 66% efficiency (14 effective disposals), 9 of them contested, 7 marks, 3 tackles, 12 pressure acts, 281 metres, 3 clearances. If you take the average of Kennedy and O'Brien from the last game it's 24 disposals at 81% efficiency (20 effective disposals), 8 of them contested, 5 marks, 2.5 tackles, 18.5 pressure acts, 268 metres, 4 clearances. Being optimistic Gibbs has maybe 80-90 odd AFL games left in the tank, would think that Kennedy & O'Brien could easily have another 400 between them.

Doesn't seem all that diabolical to me.



Keep in mind that a good chunk of those wins last year were in the first half with Docherty, Cripps, Ed & Gibbs plus Kreuzer & Murph were flying.



Gowers has said that he didn't work hard enough and getting delisted was the kick up the **** he needed to make a change. I would have like to perhaps see Holman get another year too but lets not pretend he's doing a Tim Kelly and exploding onto the scene; the guy averages 13 disposals and is basically playing each week because he's a big body in the middle who makes 6 tackles a game.



I agree, no messiah's or quick fixes here. There's no point in going through all of this to 'give up' and take the easy way out without seeing it all through. I think the club has been fairly honest about younger player development, we've heard quite often the phrase "it's not linear".

I don't see us needing to 'add' a year to the rebuild, come 2019 I'm expecting our total turnover from the 66 games (& 4 trade/draft periods) to be up around the 50-52 mark (we're at 42 now). I'd be hanging onto our top line seniors until they retire (Murph, Simmo, Kreuzer, Ed) and keeping a few of the other older guys as depth/backup (Wright, Casboult, Phillips or Lobbe, Kerridge) until their contracts are up or maybe an extension for a couple of them. Then there's guys like Jones who is a bit less certain for me, probably gets extended (currently contracted for next year) but after that I'm not sure.

Our current injury woes have forced us into playing the senior depth players who were meant to strengthen the VFL and give us the occasional chop out in the seniors when younger players needed to be managed or got injured.

This week we'll probably see Thomas and Rowe come in for Jones and Fisher. Taking that team and then comparing the changes to our potential round 1 team (without counting any offseason acquisitions) we're likely to see names like Lobbe, Thomas, Rowe, Graham, Shaw, Casboult, Wright (& others) replaced by some of Kreuzer, Docherty, Fisher, Plowman, Jones, Williamson, Byrne, Cuningham, Lang, Garlett, Kerr... then next year I reckon Schumacher & De Koning might work their way in and get a game or two.


Kreuzer, Browne, Armfield, Pfieffer, Joseph, Hill, Ellard, Shields, Yarran, Robinson, O'Keefe, Tiller, Garlett, Stanton, Bentley, Jacobs, Lucas, Davies, Kerr, Cachia, Dare, Casboult, White, Donaldson, Tuohy, Watson, McCarthy, Mitchell, McInnes, Duigan, Curnow, Twomey, Carter, Bray, Bootsma, Rowe, Buckley, Bell, Heyne, Dale, Lodge, Menzel, Temay, Graham, Collins, Cripps, Giles, Holman, Reynolds, Wood, Johnson, Sheehan, Byrne, Boekhorst, Viojo-Rainbow, Smith, Foster, Tutt, Gowers, Walsh, Fields, Russell.

That's 62 players we picked up in the ND & RD between 2007 & 2014. 7 are still on our list and another 8 are still playing AFL. 3 of those at other clubs were delisted (Gowers, Buckley & Holman). I'd argue next year those numbers could very well be 5 CFC & as low as 5 or 6 elsewhere. Still, looking at this year, 15 from 62 is a pretty horrible number (24%), but the fact that we've still only got 7 from that 62 (11%) on our list is damning, and on of, if not the major component as to why we are where we are.



Good call, was without a doubt his best game for us. Maybe it's starting to 'click' with him.



...and considering Lobbe was our only fit ruckman last week it's hard to deem the call an outright failure. Plus he's a nice 'place holder' on some cap space while he's playing that backup role.

Stories tend to be rubbish if there's no conflict or anything to overcome. The story of #17 should be a ripper... and will probably rival LOTR for run time...



I'd pass on Griffen. Can't stay on the park, walked out of the dogs while captain to chase success and evade the 'Melbourne bubble'.


Winner winner...

What about furthest from the pin?.. the 2014/15 side was one of the oldest in the comp and most of the players weren't exactly on an upwards trajectory as far as on-field output goes. It wasn't a write-off/total-loss but hell it wasn't that far off it. The options were to hard rebuild - rip the bandaid off - and try and fix the list quickly with mass changes and bringing as much talented kids in the door as possible or do it slowly over a decade or more, most likely being a perennial 8-12th placed team.
Aye, aye

POTFY

Tip of the cap to you good sir.

Trees, meet forest!

How anybody can still be getting wound up about our results this year is utterly astounding to me. And anyone questioning our execution at this early stage? It just doesn’t make sense. That’s a hindsight / after 2 more years thing to do. Not a now thing to do.

Don’t get me wrong, our plight hurts me a lot - in real measurement terms, I’d say I’m hurting a whole metric buttload for our beloved club. Which, like I said, is a lot - probably the most someone can hurt. But let’s keep it all in perspective people, and let the LONG TERM LIST STRATEGY we only commenced 2.67 YEARS AGO bear some fruit.

Or not. Whatever. I’ll just be over here, with the others who are already on the bus, watching the rest of you, as you have a collective stroke for the next 2.33 seasons.

 

[Duigan Alley34]

You're a lazy bastard.

39 posts in 7 years?

Please post more.

Been lurking around this place for a long time.
Just got into the habit of reading rather than posting.
Certainly going to get that average up!

 

[thylacine60]

Ok. Thanks lads.

casual sexism is what keeps it going

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Setterfield was formerly a pick 5 and highly regarded by CFC. Combined they would probably be worth our first rounder. Cant see us finishing bottom four next year to be honest. Shiels may be free but we arent exactly a club of choice particularly if competing clubs like St kilda and North choose to do a trade deal with GWS this year.
The fact is we have been bypassed by players who preferred to sign up at Essendon.

Who are the 4 teams that finish below us?

 

[gab213]

Who are the 4 teams that finish below us?

Any four will do

 

[BlueRenaissance]

Agree with giving up next year's first if it could help us get Smith or Rankine. If not, GTFO. I think we will not finish bottom next year with a full list back on board and GC headings for a collapse.

If possible, worth bringing forward the 2019 first rounder to accelerate development by 1 year.

 

[Malifice]

you didn't need to let it go the first time
no need to let it go

 

[Judds Junk]

Agree with giving up next year's first if it could help us get Smith or Rankine. If not, GTFO. I think we will not finish bottom next year with a full list back on board and GC headings for a collapse.

If possible, worth bringing forward the 2019 first rounder to accelerate development by 1 year.

I think there's every possibility we finish bottom in 2019, or at least in the bottom 3, either way, I think we should go all in for the 2018 draft, if someone will give us a top 7 pick for our 2019 first... we should back ourselves in and go for it. Given the strength of this years draft holding pick 1 & anything else in the top 7 would be huge.

 

[Cowboyblues]

casual sexism is what keeps it going

Much appreciated ma’am

 

[therubbernub]

We need mids and pace ...

I think you will get your wish. its the last piece in the jigsaw, so SOS will move heaven and earth to get it. Lets just for a minute look beyond the noise....Noise that is suggesting that our list is a lot worse than we know it is. What we have is a side that is pretty well set for everything except run and pace.
Dow , Kennedy , Ed and Cripps gives a pretty solid future for contested clearances.
Charlie, Harry , Weiters, Jones, Marchbank, TDK ,Macreadie, Kerr gives us some solid future options for a spine
Doc, Simmo, Williamson, Byrne gives us a nice rebounding defence

But we are not bereft of run , its just that it is not our strongest suit, and in todays AFL you need depth in your runners probably more than anything:

1.We still have Murphy: Not everyones favorite right now, but still recovering match fitness after a long layoff. 2017 B&F
2.LOB with another preseason : FMD this guy is seriously improving his numbers....all in his first year- he has no right to be performing the way he is in the second half of the season
3. Dow : Provides plenty of run and will only be better in 2019, Like LOB just performing amazingly well in his first year. Great signs.
4: SPS: what will a full preseason bring?
5 Lang: The forgotten man. A full preseason will be a huge help. As part of a more complete midfield rotation will step up
6 Fisher: His exponential improvement shows that we have a real gem here
7 Ed is Ed

Havent included Pickett , Garlett, Cunningham, schumaker, Polson

If we add some more experienced run to our existing brigade , I think the whole midfield group will lift significantly. gaff or Shiel will do.