Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Not just salary cap pressure.
As I said in that post, GWS have a lot of players (around 6+) who become free agents at the end of 2019, and also Kelly comes out of contract then too.

If GWS loses Shiel in 2019 and also loses say another 2 players to free agency as well, GWS still gets the 1 pick only, and it most likely follows its first rounder. So if GWS finishes 4th next year, the compensation pick (16) would come after its first pick (15).

If GWS trades Shiel this year, GWS gets a better pick this year (our first pick in a swap) and would still get that compensation pick next year anyway for the other 2 free agents who leave.

Without Shiel’s salary, GWS also has a better chance of keeping one or more of Coniglio, Kelly, Cameron, Lobb, etc.

GWS can’t keep them all. IMO, it is good business for both clubs.

That scenario of them finishing 4th and getting pick 16 is exactly why they won't trade him, especially for unders.
That means they are playing in a preliminary final and they arn't going to lower their chances for another high pick.
Lids, Griffen and one of Kelly or Shiel will free up ~$1.5mil anyway.

 

[HarryFlashman]

I wont just get over it thanks very much. The explanations given don't make sense from a GWS perspective as I have said previously. Using our only midfield player of any similar equivalence, Patrick Cripps, if GWS approached us and say we will give you pick 1 for Patrick Cripps and our first round pick back, every single person on this forum would be blowing up deluxe, including yourself. Don't tell me Im wrong either, cos you know it would be true. Yet everyone proposing this trade thinks GWS should just bend over for it?

Yep, you just don’t get it - your equivalence scenario is pretty much irrelevant & nothing to do with the actual scenario.
You my friend are proof u that don’t need a long neck to be a goose.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

None of the other players have any consequence or are connected in any way to whatever deal we may or may not do for Dylan Shiel.

I have tried to explain it as best as possible from GWS’ perspective because you asked.
Think back to early 2000. We had Kouta, SOS, Whitnall, Fraser Brown, Ratten, Sexton, Matty Lappin, Matty Allan and a host of others.

We also had Hammill. He wanted more $. He left for St Kilda.

Not long after we were done big time for breaching the salary cap.

We ‘couldn’t keep them all’ then, like GWS is unable to keep all its players from 2019 when a large number of its players become free agents.

 

[katmanblue]

None of the other players have any consequence or are connected in any way to whatever deal we may or may not do for Dylan Shiel.

Not from our end, but probably are from gws perspective. Clearing 800k from the books means they can pay the others more easily.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Yep, you just don’t get it - your equivalence scenario is pretty much irrelevant & nothing to do with the actual scenario.
You my friend are proof u that don’t need a long neck to be a goose.

Like I didn't predict that would be your response. LOL

 

[Aphrodite]

Im waiting for an infraction because of that post , This is the Carlton board yeah

Yes this is the Carlton Board and that's your opinion.

You don't see what I see where infractions are handed out on other Boards across the site including the Richmond Board.

Stop making up nonsense!





Oh and by the way .......

 

[Pafloyul]

Im not one of the posters who are desperate to get Dylan Shiel mate.

Sorry, I just assumed that's what you were getting at but, on reflection, I think you were referring to us not finishing last.

Personally, I think Cripps' and Charlie's form is masking the fact that we are even further back than everyone thought we were (not a disaster, but behind by a year or two) and we need every trade and draft advantage we can get. Potentially paying more for the likes of Sheil, in a good draft year (when we need to get in as many good players of a similar age as we can), just so we can get him in a year early just doesn't make sense. It's more like damage control than clever list building.

 

[thylacine60]

Yes this is the Carlton Board and that's your opinion.

You don't see what I see where infractions are handed out on other Boards across the site including the Richmond Board.

Stop making up nonsense!





Oh and by the way .......

she loves that pic cause she reckons most of us assume it's her.............aph, already she wants you gone.........

 

[J-dog]

Schoolboy hypothetical,

If we could trade pick 1 and a 3rd to Adelaide for 2 X top 10 picks, and then on traded a 1st and 2nd to both GWS and Port each for Shiel and Wines with a 2nd or 3rd coming back in change from each club, and hopefully have enough in the bank for Gaff FA, would you do it?

Out - Pick 1, 2 X seconds, 1 X 3rd pick
In - Shiel, Wines, 2 X 3rd picks
FA - Gaff (or someone like him)
Draft - 2 X 3rd rounders and hopefully BSOS and Hickmott very late (3 or 4 kids total)

Fair trades all-round I think.
Pipedream but I'd take it and run.
What does everyone else think?

 

[Metalcrusher]

Schoolboy hypothetical,

If we could trade pick 1 and a 3rd to Adelaide for 2 X top 10 picks, and then on traded a 1st and 2nd to both GWS and Port each for Shiel and Wines with a 2nd or 3rd coming back in change from each club, and hopefully have enough in the bank for Gaff FA, would you do it?

Out - Pick 1, 2 X seconds, 1 X 3rd pick
In - Shiel, Wines, 2 X 3rd picks
FA - Gaff (or someone like him)
Draft - 2 X 3rd rounders and hopefully BSOS and Hickmott very late (3 or 4 kids total)

Fair trades all-round I think.
Pipedream but I'd take it and run.
What does everyone else think?

*crickets* I'm staggered.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Schoolboy hypothetical,

If we could trade pick 1 and a 3rd to Adelaide for 2 X top 10 picks, and then on traded a 1st and 2nd to both GWS and Port each for Shiel and Wines with a 2nd or 3rd coming back in change from each club, and hopefully have enough in the bank for Gaff FA, would you do it?

Out - Pick 1, 2 X seconds, 1 X 3rd pick
In - Shiel, Wines, 2 X 3rd picks
FA - Gaff (or someone like him)
Draft - 2 X 3rd rounders and hopefully BSOS and Hickmott very late (3 or 4 kids total)

Fair trades all-round I think.
Pipedream but I'd take it and run.
What does everyone else think?

Hasn't Wines just re-signed?

 

[Aphrodite]

Schoolboy hypothetical,

If we could trade pick 1 and a 3rd to Adelaide for 2 X top 10 picks, and then on traded a 1st and 2nd to both GWS and Port each for Shiel and Wines with a 2nd or 3rd coming back in change from each club, and hopefully have enough in the bank for Gaff FA, would you do it?

Out - Pick 1, 2 X seconds, 1 X 3rd pick
In - Shiel, Wines, 2 X 3rd picks
FA - Gaff (or someone like him)
Draft - 2 X 3rd rounders and hopefully BSOS and Hickmott very late (3 or 4 kids total)

Fair trades all-round I think.
Pipedream but I'd take it and run.
What does everyone else think?

Wines re-signed a fortnight ago.

 

[Aphrodite]

Hasn't Wines just re-signed?

He sure has until 2022.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Hence my above post ….

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...b/news-story/358e2881f1680e0e125ac4aabbf8176a

 

[AceAndy]

Schoolboy hypothetical,

If we could trade pick 1 and a 3rd to Adelaide for 2 X top 10 picks, and then on traded a 1st and 2nd to both GWS and Port each for Shiel and Wines with a 2nd or 3rd coming back in change from each club, and hopefully have enough in the bank for Gaff FA, would you do it?

Out - Pick 1, 2 X seconds, 1 X 3rd pick
In - Shiel, Wines, 2 X 3rd picks
FA - Gaff (or someone like him)
Draft - 2 X 3rd rounders and hopefully BSOS and Hickmott very late (3 or 4 kids total)

Fair trades all-round I think.
Pipedream but I'd take it and run.
What does everyone else think?

Back to the drawing board J-dog

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

He had a crack!

 

[King Cripps]

That moron David King has written in today's HUN that we should be looking at trading our pick 1 for their pick 8 and Brad Crouch. If Crouch want so injury prone I wouldn't mind it but his body has let him down. What about our pick 1 and 26 for Crouch pick 8 and pick 13 ?

 

[Metalcrusher]

That moron David King has written in today's HUN that we should be looking at trading our pick 1 for their pick 8 and Brad Crouch. If Crouch want so injury prone I wouldn't mind it but his body has let him down. What about our pick 1 and 26 for Crouch pick 8 and pick 13 ?

NO THANKS …. they can keep their salvation army second hand crouch ….

 

[Blue__Balls]

Like I didn't predict that would be your response. LOL

To be fair - they are very different scenarios.

Cripps isn't almost a free agent, he's our most important player, and we can afford to pay him in virgins if need be.

There are valid reasons GWS would entertain trading out Shiel this year. A lot of it comes down to how highly they value whatever we are prepared to offer. Do they rate Lukosius as highly as some others, or are there others they think suit them better? Is he a flight risk for them, and if so would they take the risk?

If they really like him, reckon they can keep him, and if they're sure Shiel is gone next year anyway - they may be happy to lose Shiel a year early to upgrade from Pick 10ish to Lukosius.

Either way, they lose Shiel. So the question is - Lukosius vs. Pick 10 + Pick ~15 + one year of (unhappy?) Shiel? Could go either way I reckon, and might depend on whether ditching Shiel's salary a year early helps them with frontloading some extensions.

 

[Stamos]

Cripps isn't almost a free agent, he's our most important player, and we can afford to pay him in virgins if need be.

Wait till he's played 100 games.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

To be fair - they are very different scenarios.

Cripps isn't almost a free agent, he's our most important player, and we can afford to pay him in virgins if need be.

There are valid reasons GWS would entertain trading out Shiel this year. A lot of it comes down to how highly they value whatever we are prepared to offer. Do they rate Lukosius as highly as some others, or are there others they think suit them better? Is he a flight risk for them, and if so would they take the risk?

If they really like him, reckon they can keep him, and if they're sure Shiel is gone next year anyway - they may be happy to lose Shiel a year early to upgrade from Pick 10ish to Lukosius.

Either way, they lose Shiel. So the question is - Lukosius vs. Pick 10 + Pick ~15 + one year of (unhappy?) Shiel? Could go either way I reckon, and might depend on whether ditching Shiel's salary a year early helps them with frontloading some extensions.

As I posted, I simply used Cripps as a similar player of importance as us to them, we really don't have a third best gun mid like Shiel, hence using Cripps and putting a Carlton stance on it to point out why what is being suggested is far fetched.

 

[Curnivore]

Schoolboy hypothetical,

If we could trade pick 1 and a 3rd to Adelaide for 2 X top 10 picks, and then on traded a 1st and 2nd to both GWS and Port each for Shiel and Wines with a 2nd or 3rd coming back in change from each club, and hopefully have enough in the bank for Gaff FA, would you do it?

Out - Pick 1, 2 X seconds, 1 X 3rd pick
In - Shiel, Wines, 2 X 3rd picks
FA - Gaff (or someone like him)
Draft - 2 X 3rd rounders and hopefully BSOS and Hickmott very late (3 or 4 kids total)

Fair trades all-round I think.
Pipedream but I'd take it and run.
What does everyone else think?

Looking past the fact that it is more likely that I grow little t-rex arms out of my nipples tomorrow than this taking place I like the idea you are going for.

 

[J-dog]

Ok, take 2 -

If we could trade pick 1 and a 3rd to Adelaide for 2 X top 10 picks, and then on traded a 1st and 2nd to GWS for Shiel with a 2nd or 3rd coming back in change, and hopefully have enough in the bank for Gaff FA, would you do it?

Out - Pick 1, 1 x 2nd, 1 X 3rd pick
In - Shiel, 1 X 1st, 1 X 3rd pick
FA - Gaff (or someone like him)
Draft - 1 X 1st, 1 X 2nd, 1 X 3rd rounders and hopefully BSOS and Hickmott very late (5 kids total)

Edit - after reading this back I would absolutely be gunning for this more than my first post, and I would also look to trade our 3rd and change for an average player who plays whatever position but has an absolute truckload of mongrel and can run.
Not too big aastretch of the imagination I don't think.

Thoughts?

 

[thylacine60]

Looking past the fact that it is more likely that I grow little t-rex arms out of my nipples tomorrow than this taking place I like the idea you are going for.

struggling with the alienesque visual but enjoying the creativity..........

 

[Curnivore]

struggling with the alienesque visual but enjoying the creativity..........

Keep struggling with it, there will come a time in the near future where you will realise how handy it would be to have a pair.