Prediction 2018 trade hypothetical thread

[Mego Red]

Here we go, another thinking he is going to screw up interviews to slide to you're club.. wow

It's been widely discussed in Adelaide.

He's not going to screw up interviews, he's just going to be honest about the importance of family and how he will want to return to them as soon as is possible.

 

[Mego Red]

The only way that the points system works if with the academies using it on players nobody else can get.

Look at it this way, if you've got the first three picks in the draft (7751) you could sell them all for picks #19 to #28 and pick #41. Eleven picks - what a great addition to your squad. A quarter will be top thirty picks. The problem?

You can only put 22 on the ground each week, the game will be decided by the quality of those 22 and you're far more likely to get a quality player the higher up the draft your pick is. You need players who will win key moments and the guys who have the elite kicks, the speed, the marking power, the creativity, the ability to read the play, the workrate and the running power aren't picked up late in the draft. There might not even be a single one in the draft each year.

Pick #1 shouldn't be traded.

I'm really not sure this needed to be posted.

Yes, you need lots of late picks to add up to an early one. Yes, it's completely ludicrous that anyone would do that.

Want to discuss a relevant example? Say, a pick 5 or 6 for a later first and a second? History shows that's actually MORE likely to get you better players.

 

[Prochard123]

Collingwood trades
Darcy Moore + 2019 2nd round pick for Swans 2018 1st round pick + 2018 3rd round pick

Collingwood trades
2018 1st round pick + 2018 Swains 1st round pick + Josh Thomas for Pick 4 + Steven May

Thomas is serverely underrated, an excellent small forward that can go through our midfield, kicks goals during crucial moments.

Gold Coast has also shown the willingness to pay extras to bring local talent back to GC. Gold coast has shown intentions of starting from scratch again via the draft, with how even the 1st round is in this year's draft, they'd be better off having 2 mid-late 1st rounders and an instant best 18 player for them over just 1 pick and 1 player who doesn't want to be there.

 

[Dez!]

Collingwood trades
Darcy Moore + 2019 2nd round pick for Swans 2018 1st round pick + 2018 3rd round pick

Collingwood trades
2018 1st round pick + 2018 Swains 1st round pick + Josh Thomas for Pick 4 + Steven May

Thomas is serverely underrated, an excellent small forward that can go through our midfield, kicks goals during crucial moments.

Gold Coast has also shown the willingness to pay extras to bring local talent back to GC. Gold coast has shown intentions of starting from scratch again via the draft, with how even the 1st round is in this year's draft, they'd be better off having 2 mid-late 1st rounders and an instant best 18 player for them over just 1 pick and 1 player who doesn't want to be there.

You are taking the piss there right? You aren't actually serious with that trade are you?

 

[PostPaolo]

Collingwood trades
Darcy Moore + 2019 2nd round pick for Swans 2018 1st round pick + 2018 3rd round pick

Collingwood trades
2018 1st round pick + 2018 Swains 1st round pick + Josh Thomas for Pick 4 + Steven May

Thomas is serverely underrated, an excellent small forward that can go through our midfield, kicks goals during crucial moments.

Gold Coast has also shown the willingness to pay extras to bring local talent back to GC. Gold coast has shown intentions of starting from scratch again via the draft, with how even the 1st round is in this year's draft, they'd be better off having 2 mid-late 1st rounders and an instant best 18 player for them over just 1 pick and 1 player who doesn't want to be there.

Getting warm I think a 2019 future first from the Suns as well could help them land their big fish in Josh Thomas.

 

[Prochard123]

You are taking the piss there right? You aren't actually serious with that trade are you?

You think it's not fair because you see Thomas as the steak knives. He's not, as I mentioned before, underrated by everyone outside of Collingwood

 

[Lionmoe21]

You think it's not fair because you see Thomas as the steak knives. He's not, as I mentioned before, underrated by everyone outside of Collingwood

So collingwoods first and sydneys first for pick 4 and thomas for may. Goldcoast lose both thsoe deals so putting them together looks very bad if you think about it from goldcoasts side

 

[Dez!]

You think it's not fair because you see Thomas as the steak knives. He's not, as I mentioned before, underrated by everyone outside of Collingwood

No I see it as not fair because Gold Coast are giving up the better player and the better pick, that's why it's unfair.

Also I'd be shocked if Darcy Moore fetches a first round pick after his hamstring problems as of late.

Gold Coast already own West Coast's first round pick this year, so with their own first round pick (#2) and the compensation pick (#3) from Tom Lynch plus the Eagles pick there's no reason for them to trade for that poor package.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Collingwood trades
Darcy Moore + 2019 2nd round pick for Swans 2018 1st round pick + 2018 3rd round pick

Collingwood trades
2018 1st round pick + 2018 Swains 1st round pick + Josh Thomas for Pick 4 + Steven May

Thomas is serverely underrated, an excellent small forward that can go through our midfield, kicks goals during crucial moments.

Gold Coast has also shown the willingness to pay extras to bring local talent back to GC. Gold coast has shown intentions of starting from scratch again via the draft, with how even the 1st round is in this year's draft, they'd be better off having 2 mid-late 1st rounders and an instant best 18 player for them over just 1 pick and 1 player who doesn't want to be there.

Ah yes GC will just willingly bend over in any trade deal if you give them a Queenslander

 

[SterlingArcher]

You think it's not fair because you see Thomas as the steak knives. He's not, as I mentioned before, underrated by everyone outside of Collingwood

No it's unfair because I`d say May is worth a first rounder so say 14 (Swans) so 3 for 16 (Pies) and Thomas? Thomas is underrated yes but that much? Not a chance

 

[Prochard123]

No I see it as not fair because Gold Coast are giving up the better player and the better pick, that's why it's unfair.

Also I'd be shocked if Darcy Moore fetches a first round pick after his hamstring problems as of late.

Gold Coast already own West Coast's first round pick this year, so with their own first round pick (#2) and the compensation pick (#3) from Tom Lynch plus the Eagles pick there's no reason for them to trade for that poor package.

Moore is not going for a 1st round pick though. It's a very late 1st round pick, and swans getting our 2nd rounder in return. That values Moore as a late 2nd at best.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Adelaide fans on BF have been severely overrating McGovern's value, but he is definitely worth a first rounder, I'd argue somewhere around 10-15. Assuming their first round pick next year is something like pick 13, and that Carlton again win the spoon, this means the trade would look something like:

Carlton send Pick 1 (3,000) + 2019 Pick 19 (948)

Adelaide send Pick 8 (1,551) + 2019 Pick 13 (1,212) + McGovern

This values McGovern at roughly Pick 14, which is probably about right. TBH, I would expect Adelaide to try get more out of this deal though, especially considering he is contracted. Adelaide would probably try send their 2019 second rounder instead of first, which looks like:

Adelaide send Pick 8 (1,551) + 2019 Pick 31 (606) + McGovern

This values McGovern at around Pick 6, which is also not outside the realm of possibility. Perhaps a little bit too much, but since Carlton hardballed with Gibbs, I'd expect Adelaide to do the same to Carlton. Although Carlton may have the upper hand here, considering they are the ones holding Pick 1

Agree

BUT

I think it all depends how much Adelaide want Lukiosus. If it's overstated then McGovern contracted is worth pick 6ish. If it's true that they really desperately want a top pick to use on him then they should thank their lucky stars a player like McGovern wants out. True value more so pick 14ish. Gives real value to struggling clubs wanting a player in that age range.

I have said heaps of times I have NFI how much Adelaide want JL, all comes down to the reports. But you'd think if they really want him then they aren't going to play hardball with a guy who wants out, they aren't going to quabble over a 1st v 2nd rounder if they get their prized man for essentially McGovern + pick 8.

 

[Dez!]

Moore is not going for a 1st round pick though. It's a very late 1st round pick, and swans getting our 2nd rounder in return. That values Moore as a late 2nd at best.

So Moore isn't going for a 1st round pick but he's going for a very late 1st round pick?

Regardless, it's the bending over of Gold Coast that's the issue here.

 

[Prochard123]

No it's unfair because I`d say May is worth a first rounder so say 14 (Swans) so 3 for 16 (Pies) and Thomas? Thomas is underrated yes but that much? Not a chance

Well I don't rate May at all, but let's just say he's traded for pick 16 (our pick).

Pick 14 + Extremely good small forward who's also great as an inside mid for pick 4 certainly looks hella better than

Pick 2 for Lachie Weller

Josh Thomas will probably be a top 10 Best and Fairest player in a top 3 side. He's certainly a top 12 player for us, and would be one of GC's best players if he goes there.

I would say out all of our forwards, in terms of impact:
De Goey > Thomas > Cox > Hoskin Elliot > Stephensen

Thomas scored 35 goals for the season, and he played 60% forward at best. It's almost important to note that he's rarely targetted inside our forward 50, he seriously wins and deserves all his goals.

Thomas vs Caddy

Disposals: 16.7 v 16.8
DE: 74% v 67%
TOG: 78% vs 87%
Goal assist: 0.4 v 0.3
Goals: 35 v 44

Thomas has almost matched Caddy's output with 9% less time on ground...

I say for sure Thomas is at least worth a late first.

 

[Tyruddanaut]

Gaff
Polec for 2018/2019 2nd round picks
Hall for a swap of 2019 3rd & 2nd round swap
Kelly for Preuss + 2018/2019 1st round picks, Shiel stays.

Why would GWS want Preuss

 

[Tyruddanaut]

Jones + 66 --> 34 (Hawthorn)
Casboult + 34 --> 27 (GC)
25 + 27 --> 19 +37 (Richmond)

Finish with 19, 37
Rather than 25, 66, Jones, Casboult

 

[Freoforever86]

What would Bulldog fans want for Adams? fair value an early 2nd rounder?

 

[Joao]

Collingwood trades
Darcy Moore + 2019 2nd round pick for Swans 2018 1st round pick + 2018 3rd round pick

Collingwood trades
2018 1st round pick + 2018 Swains 1st round pick + Josh Thomas for Pick 4 + Steven May

Thomas is serverely underrated, an excellent small forward that can go through our midfield, kicks goals during crucial moments.

Gold Coast has also shown the willingness to pay extras to bring local talent back to GC. Gold coast has shown intentions of starting from scratch again via the draft, with how even the 1st round is in this year's draft, they'd be better off having 2 mid-late 1st rounders and an instant best 18 player for them over just 1 pick and 1 player who doesn't want to be there.

As a rule, if you have to do a sales pitch to the rest of BF for your "underrated by everyone else" player, nobody is going to rate your hypothetical.

Take one of the firsts, Thomas and pick 4 out of it and add something later from you guys and it is probably about right.

What would Bulldog fans want for Adams? fair value an early 2nd rounder?

I rate him and if he could stay on the park his value is more like 12-20.

However, we'd be silly to give up more than a 3rd because of the injuries and because he'd more or less make Logue redundant.

 

[Freoforever86]

As a rule, if you have to do a sales pitch to the rest of BF for your "underrated by everyone else" player, nobody is going to rate your hypothetical.

Take one of the firsts, Thomas and pick 4 out of it and add something later from you guys and it is probably about right.

I rate him and if he could stay on the park his value is more like 12-20.

However, we'd be silly to give up more than a 3rd because of the injuries and because he'd more or less make Logue redundant.

Yeah atm he’s in a weird spot. In form
He’s what you said 12-20, but injuries have hurt. Still contracted though.
Would allow us to play a marking intercept defender with Hamling and Pearce.

Logue has always been earmarked for midfield, was handy up forward a bit too. Needs to get on the park first but

 

[jesterwester]

I would say WC would be pretty keen on Adams- given Mackenzie is likely to retire due to injuries it does leave us short on KPD depth. (Allen & Brander have played down back at WAFL level but I think they become forwards at AFL level.)

Given the contract Lycett is supposedly getting with Port, we may end up with another pick around that 20-30 mark. So I could see that pick being offered to WB.

 

[Suns of Anarchy]

Ah yes GC will just willingly bend over in any trade deal if you give them a Queenslander

Scott Clayton was thrown out with the trash. I wouldn't take too much notice of our last 7 years of trading as a precedence.

 

[Joao]

Yeah atm he’s in a weird spot. In form
He’s what you said 12-20, but injuries have hurt. Still contracted though.
Would allow us to play a marking intercept defender with Hamling and Pearce.

Logue has always been earmarked for midfield, was handy up forward a bit too. Needs to get on the park first but

I don't see any midfield capabilities in Logue at all. Sure he may have them but I'll only believe that when I see it. Doesn't have the agility/evasion/sidestep in traffic to be a midfielder IMO. He would be relying on brute strength, which is fine in bursts but not as a full time mid.

He is the intercepting/rebounding 3rd tall. Has the (almost) perfect athletic profile for it.

 

[boncer34]

You think it's not fair because you see Thomas as the steak knives. He's not, as I mentioned before, underrated by everyone outside of Collingwood

Good thing only Collingwood are involved in that trade.

 

[Falco518]

Does anyone else think Geelong or West Coast should try and get Aaron Sandilands for 10 or so games plus Finals next year.
Trade Freo a young player to help with the rebuild.

 

[Northernsoul74]

What would Bulldog fans want for Adams? fair value an early 2nd rounder?

We’d take an early 2nd. Best we can hope for if he is really desperate to return home.