AFL 2019 - AFL Round 12

[Mazza1234678]

Well for starters 8w-11L, you would assume that they went into those games as dogs so they covered in 8/19 at the very least.

True but they would of been very big lines as I’m guessing more often than not it would of been bottom teams playing teams way higher up on the ladder

You would have to take a -16.5 for a team who some are saying should be top 4 against a bottom feeder

 

[GROTTO]

True but they would of been very big lines as I’m guessing more often than not it would of been bottom teams playing teams way higher up on the ladder

You would have to take a -16.5 for a team who some are saying should be top 4 against a bottom feeder

If I am not mistaken, I could be so please correct me if I am wrong here. Could be drunk also. or slow Im from Adelaide.

The size of the line is irrelevant if the underdog won.

Underdog is always at the plus handicap.

So if if there is 19 games of caretaker coaches in their first game and 8 won.

It would imply that at least 8 covered guaranteed as a lock.

The caveat which is very crucial here is that in all these 19 games the assumption made is that every team with a new caretaker went into every 1st game as underdogs against all their opponents.

 

[Mazza1234678]

If I am not mistaken, I could be so please correct me if I am wrong here. Could be drunk also. or slow Im from Adelaide.

The size of the line is irrelevant if the underdog won.

Underdog is always at the plus handicap.

So if if there is 19 games of caretaker coaches in their first game and 8 won.

It would imply that at least 8 covered guaranteed as a lock.

The caveat which is very crucial here is that in all these 19 games the assumption made is that every team with a new caretaker went into every 1st game as underdogs against all their opponents.

Haha nah I get ya it would defiantly be at least 8

But ur insinuating that there could be more than 8 occasions where they covered the line, I’m just skeptical if that’s the case

I reckon it would be about a 35% strike rate from the results I’ve seen

 

[RooTed]

Ziebell playing 200 this week. Anyone know the W/L ratio on 200 gamers?

On the gear using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[onebillsdrive]

U just can’t compare north to Carlton, north do have a graders across every line, aside from Cripps there is no other a grader

This Carlton side is bordering on melbourne in the dark days

We’re all reading too much into it

What A graders do North have and one on every line......you need perspective

 

[Jugada]

What A graders do North have and one on every line......you need perspective

Tarrant, Higgins, Brown off the top of my head

 

[Robo87]

Brisbane odds are a joke, 60+ 9.50$?
It's a Carlton side that couldn't beat Essendon. They are terrible. Lions come to play they could win by 100+.

I Agree.
also 0.2u Brisbane 73+ @17 b365

 

[Mazza1234678]

What A graders do North have and one on every line......you need perspective

Higgins, Polec, Cunnington, Goldy, Brown just off the top of my head are a graders

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Gold Coast have been a bogey side for North, especially in QLD.

Richmond odds seem juicy. They are a different team at the 'G.

Brisbane's only non-QLD win was against a putrid North outfit. I like the Blues.

Not going anywhere near the other matches.

 

[onebillsdrive]

Higgins, Polec, Cunnington, Goldy, Brown just off the top of my head are a graders

Yeah as I said you need perspective.....not going to argue but Polec and Goldy who isn't in the top 6 ruckman just lol

 

[NonPhixion]

I think there is an over-reaction here from North’s win last week. They are still a bottom 6 team to me. Would not surprise me to see GC win. I think they present value at the + line

 

[HTPunter]

We both know he has had f*ck all to work with for 4 years. Arguably taken over one of the worst lists in history too. To be fair, I did expect them to improve more than they have this year. But the injuries really cruelled Carlton this year more than the previous 3, especially down back. Let me just say this, Carlton will not be better off for the remainder of the year with Teague at the helm, they might sneak 1 or 2 more wins, but who is to say that would have differed under Bolton. They should have at least given him till the end of the year to make this decision. The cold facts are that the list has been in a horrible position since he took over, its easy to call the coach the scapegoat. Then you have blokes like SOS behind the scenes screwing over the club anyway he can. If I was a Carlton supporter I would be wanting questions raised to the list management, because its been terrible.
Take a look at the team that lined up last week against Essendon:
x4 players over 24.
Casboult - Absolute spud of a player, dont care what anyone says he doesn't belong in the AFL
E. Curnow - Role player at best
Fasolo - not up to AFL standard anymore. Doesn't work hard enough and is nowhere near fit enough.
Kreuzer - good player when hes up and running, but far to injury- prone.
Aside from Cripps who is A+, the rest are just kids that need more development. There are some guns in the making there for sure, Mckay, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, who are nowhere near their peak and still finding consistency.
The player changes at the end of 2017 season were dreadful imo. Of the 12 players brought in at that time id argue that only 2 of those (Dow & Kennedy) are of AFL standard. Seriously the rest are all busts. Surely im not the only one that sees this, why isnt SOS scrutinised?
Im harping on but just telling it how i see it.

"Why isn't SOS scrutinised?"

I guess I don't know about what Carlton are doing behind closed doors but everything from the media and footy public (this thread is proof) is that SOS needs to have strong level if not equal blame as Bolton. I'd be surprised if he isn't under huge pressure to get some big list wins this year.

Edit: punting board relevant- I'll have a look at betting on Carltons over total points. They won't likely win but I expect a more positive brand of football. They've been defensive for 4 years and it's not helping their W/L ratio, and I expect (no stats, just speculation) a more "let's see who can play" free brand of footy.

 

[RooTed]

1u #AFLSunsRoos TGS u150.5 $1.88 BE

Expect low scoring and possble Suns win. Twilight game and maybe wet/slippery with rain forecast (3-10mm) on the day.

GL

 

[Its not the coach]

If I am not mistaken, I could be so please correct me if I am wrong here. Could be drunk also. or slow Im from Adelaide.

The size of the line is irrelevant if the underdog won.

Underdog is always at the plus handicap.

So if if there is 19 games of caretaker coaches in their first game and 8 won.

It would imply that at least 8 covered guaranteed as a lock.

The caveat which is very crucial here is that in all these 19 games the assumption made is that every team with a new caretaker went into every 1st game as underdogs against all their opponents.

Your just slow, being from Adelaide has nothing to do with it.

 

[GROTTO]

Your just slow, being from Adelaide has nothing to do with it.

Well. I did say if I was wrong with my line of thinking. Which I wasnt.

Maybe Im not the only one slow either.

 

[Its not the coach]

Well. I did say if I was wrong with my line of thinking. Which I wasnt.

Maybe Im not the only one slow either.

Still a spineless comment to make, Especially if you are form Adelaide.

 

[burge13]

Your just slow, being from Adelaide has nothing to do with it.

If you're going to call someone slow, get your and you're correct

 

[GROTTO]

Still a spineless comment to make, Especially if you are form Adelaide.

I am presuming you are new to Bigfooty and especially to the Punter Forum, unless you have had a few aliases in the past that are banned. Assuming you are new, as a heads up there is light hearted banter in here from time to time so maybe that will provide a guide for future posts in here by you.

The post was not directed personally towards you and for starters I have never noticed you before, so the antagonistic personal reply was not warranted.

Personal attacks is always unacceptable and is likely to get you banned or suspended from here.

I live in Adelaide and was basically poking fun at myself and the city that I live in.

 

[Its not the coach]

I am presuming you are new to Bigfooty and especially to the Punter Forum, unless you have had a few aliases in the past that are banned. Assuming you are new, as a heads up there is light hearted banter in here from time to time so maybe that will provide a guide for future posts in here by you.

The post was not directed personally towards you and for starters I have never noticed you before, so the antagonistic personal reply was not warranted.

Personal attacks is always unacceptable and is likely to get you banned or suspended from here.

I live in Adelaide and was basically poking fun at myself and the city that I live in.

Sportsbet same game multi 3 legs Adelaide win walker to kick 4 plus goals B Crouch 30 plus dispals. Paying $15 get on it.

No only been on the punting thread back in round 6. Sorry if I offended you. Probably a bit harsh of me to say say that. Stay tuned I will send everyone a winner tomorow.

 

[Its not the coach]

If you're going to call someone slow, get your and you're correct

Your just being picky now

 

[targett]

7 from 11 covered
Strike Rate 64%


Betting a unit each at $1.90 lines, you’d have staked 11 units and collected 13.3 units, for a profit of 2.3 units at a Great 21% PoT

With coach sackings there is not a lot of data – Here there are only eleven events to look at…. Not enough to have faith in the numbers.

Can Carlton cover the line this week .....

 

[GROTTO]

7 from 11 covered
Strike Rate 64%


Betting a unit each at $1.90 lines, you’d have staked 11 units and collected 13.3 units, for a profit of 2.3 units at a Great 21% PoT

With coach sackings there is not a lot of data – Here there are only eleven events to look at…. Not enough to have faith in the numbers.

Can Carlton cover the line this week .....

Do we believe SOS when he claims Stocker is a Top 6 pick and justifies his exchange of 1st rounders with the Crows?

Both are currently great Carlton mysteries, but in time we will know.

Thanks for doing that much appreciated, it was interesting because I clearly remember a few years back making this general assertion on here, only for it to be rejected. Admittedly I didnt have the data to prove my claim.

Ironically IIRC I made the comment when Carlton last sacked a coach.

 

[balmainforever]

No Astbury and Ellis for Richmond.

Get on Geelong at the 9.5 start.

 

[chrisdon16]

Geelong -9.5 ($1.91 Beteasy)

 

[bluebob1]

7 from 11 covered
Strike Rate 64%


Betting a unit each at $1.90 lines, you’d have staked 11 units and collected 13.3 units, for a profit of 2.3 units at a Great 21% PoT

With coach sackings there is not a lot of data – Here there are only eleven events to look at…. Not enough to have faith in the numbers.

Can Carlton cover the line this week .....

You might want to take out the three times that they were favourites playing the bottom sides as it doesnt seem to fit the case with Carllton this week, makes the sample size pretty small if you do that.