AFL 2019 - AFL Round 6

Who Covers the Line This Week?


  • Total voters
    33
  • Poll closed .

iluvparis

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Goodwin concentrated on getting the defence right during the week which was understandable considering the dees were averaging over 100 against. Better defensively but that was a shocker offensively they're a rabble at the moment. This is one of the biggest capitulations of recent times. Best offense last season to this.

Stop talking them up iluvparis
Biggest capitulations in recent times. L O L. Only for the insane out there who had already penciled them in for a decade long juggernaut.

They were a middling team last year who got a couple of down teams in finals before being truly exposed in a prelim slaughter.

They were never that good and are being rightfully found out for who they actually are this year.
 

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iluvparis

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Anybody else getting a discounted price on SB same game multi’s?

Getting 35.00, when it should be ~41.0
They will always reduce the odds if some of the events are related. So if you take de goey to kick 3+ or something and Collingwood 40+ you will get lower odds as if de goey kicks 3 it’s more likely collingwood win by 40 +
 
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Basically, it is about 'bankroll management'.

The common theory among punters is that the best long-term strategy is to have a known bankroll, the amount you are willing to bet with over a period of time.

Whatever that bankroll is, a 'unit' is 1% of the bankroll.

So suppose you are willing to punt with $1,000 for the season, a '1U' bet is $10.

You might have a few good weeks and find yourself on $1,200 total bankroll. You can either stick to the $10 per unit or adjust it to suit your new bankroll.

I'm not sure what most people on this forum are doing in that regard.

Either way, by limiting yourself to just a few units of punting per match/round, you limit the wild variances which can happen with gambling.

It means you can win less on any given match/round, but also means you can lose less.

And anybody who has ever been on tilt after an unlucky loss, or gotten carried away after a big win and made silly big bets trying to 'ride it', knows how important bankroll management is.

For me personally, I had a very good weekend last weekend, ended up about 20 units or so. But for the season prior to that I was down almost 10 units (IIRC). The other benefit of this method is that it makes it very easy to 'keep track' of your overall success/failure.

tl;dr

For most punters on this forum 1U is probably $1-$10, and it is supposed to be 1% of their total bankroll, and the idea is to limit one's potential losses due to bad luck or bad betting. A confident bet will be around 2U, speculative bets will be more like .1-.5 units.
Thanks mate! Very helpful and glad to be aboard
 
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Surely gets the Greenwood tag.
Doubtful i dont think so

Pies can limit without tagging hard though. However this is a great day for scoring especially those mids who drift back for marks. Sb have taken down the 115.5 line. PB 105 line has already been smashed its almost worth getting on the unders.

But not worth touching save your pennies for other games in relation to fantasy
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On a side note i put $50 on Richmond with Lads at 1.42 expecting to get the 2.50 Promo i didnt recieve it. Anyone know why that mightve been the case. Im in WA
 

desTROY

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Doubtful i dont think so

Pies can limit without tagging hard though. However this is a great day for scoring especially those mids who drift back for marks. Sb have taken down the 115.5 line. PB 105 line has already been smashed its almost worth getting on the unders.

But not worth touching save your pennies for other games in relation to fantasy
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On a side note i put $50 on Richmond with Lads at 1.42 expecting to get the 2.50 Promo i didnt recieve it. Anyone know why that mightve been the case. Im in WA
They have a special promo market price you have to click on
 
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Couple of long-shots to make the game interesting in case of a blow-out:
Phillips O26.5, Shiel 25+, Beams 25+, Adams 20+, M.Brown AGS, WHE AGS - $9

Smith 2+ goals, WHE 2+ goals - $17.75
Smith 2+ goals, WHE 3+ goals - $63
Smith 3+ goals, WHE 2+ goals - $94
Smith 3+ goals, WHE 3+ goals - $276
 
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2.5u Treloar 25+, Collingwood SU $1.85 (lads)
2.5u Cox AGS, Crisp, Zaharakis 20+ $1.88 (SB)
2.5 Tippa, Stephenson AGS $1.80 (SB)
1.5u Grundy over 115.5 fantasy $1.88 (PB)
1u Cox over 60.5 fantasy $1.75 (PB)
 
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Some things to consider for tomorrows game:
Treloar over 99.5 SC 116.5 SC at Lads $1.87 (i'm 4/4 on these and this one looks particularly tasty)
Treloar SC Group $7 $5.75 at Lads.
Shiel AGS $4 $3 at Lads (speculative, has had 7 shots this year for 0.5 and 2 missed. Can't kick in fwd half but has nice hair).
Merrett AGS $3.75 $2.75 at Lads.
Forget these, all come in too far if you haven't got them already.
 
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1U Mitch Brown 2g+ @ 3.10
.5U Mitch Brown 3g+ @ 6
.3U Mitch Brown 4g+ @ 18

.3U Multi: Mitch Brown 2g+, Zaharakis 25+ disposals, Essendon +11.5 @ 7.5
.3U Multi: Mitch Brown 3g+, Zaharakis 30+ disposals, Essendon SU, total points > 174.5 @ 67

Total: 2.4U.
 
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