AFL 2019 Brownlow Medal (after the result bets will get a ban)

[Womboksgalore]

Only one that worries me in that is Shiel. Have him on 9 so just covering the 8.5, everyone else should clear fairly easily imo

Fair call on Shiel, breaks the line which I think will help him capture the attention of umpires, but disposal accuracy may hurt him in the same way...

 

[the egg]

Personally not buying into the Cripps hype this year. Thought he was better last year to be honest. Lost a s**t ton of games early and had a fair few quiet ones. No chance of winning. AFL predictor has him on 26...kidding me!

 

[Browney2006]

I think what clouds a lot of people with Cripps is that he IS the best player in the comp, however he hasn’t had the best year.

 

[Benjo_]

Put my nerd glasses on and did a bit of research on Boak's polling history (after vividly remembering how he polled very nicely five or so years ago). Here it is:

- Boak when recording 25-29 disposals in his career polls an average of 0.61 votes in these games. (Has played four matches with disposals lying in this bracket this year)
- Boak when recording 30-34 disposals in his career polls an average of 1.3 votes in these games. (Has played eight matches with disposals lying in this bracket this year)
- Boak when recording 35+ disposals in his career polls an average of 2.75 votes in these games. (Has played five matches with disposals lying in this bracket this year)

Obviously there are plenty of outside factors to occur and influence this, but assuming all factors stay the same, Boak will poll 27 (~26.6) votes this year. This seems excessive but I do think he can poll around the 20 mark and has the potential to be this year's Brownlow smoky. He is $5 to poll 20+ at SB - multi this up with a few Cripps/Kelly 15+ safe bets and you get some reasonably attractive odds. Just some food for thought anyway

 

[Poorman53]

Thoughts on the bet easy build a bet; Danger, Neale, Fyfe and Grundy to all finish top 5 @4.5?

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Thoughts on the bet easy build a bet; Danger, Neale, Fyfe and Grundy to all finish top 5 @4.5?

Grundy top 5 is the trap there. Also doesn't specify if it includes ineligible (Martin) or not so I'd stay away.

 

[Poorman53]

Grundy top 5 is the trap there. Also doesn't specify if it includes ineligible (Martin) or not so I'd stay away.

Yeah didn't think of the Martin part. I am keen to do a bet involving Grundy. I think there is generally a hangover effect with the brownlow. The umps copped it last year with the lack of votes for Gawn and Grundy. This year Grundy has played even better, think he may poll better than expected.

 

[james95]

Hi all, don’t often post but each year I do my own round by round count each Sunday night. The last two years I’ve only missed 4 of 36 team top vote getters, and have hit the trifecta in 16 and 17, would’ve had it boxed last year if not for Brayshaw too.

Anyhow, my top 20 is as follows

27 - Dangerfield
25 - Fyfe
24 - Martin, Bontempelli, Neale, Kelly, Treloar
22 - Cripps, Grundy
21 - Macrae
19 - Boak
18 - Pendlebury, Dunkley, Shuey, Zorko
17 - Merrett, Worpel
16 - Gaff, M.Crouch, Higgins

Leaning towards the fact I may have slightly overpolled Zorko, Shuey and Worpel (round 1 should be a good gauge as to how the umps will rate him).

I have currently requested three
Buildabet’s on BetEasy which are -

$50 bet @ $4
M.Murphy w/o Cripps (3 clear of a Curnow/Walsh/McKay)
Prestia w/o Martin (6 clear of Houli)
Gawn
Higgins

$30 bet @ $9
Bulldogs 75+ team votes
Gaff 14+
J.Kelly & M.Crouch 12+
M.Murphy 8+
O.Wines 6+

$20 bet @ $9
Boak, Merrett, Pendlebury, Zorko 15+
Shiel, Ablett, Lyons 10+
B.Brown, B.Hill, O.Wines 5+

In the last two bets I’ve created, Ive allowed two votes minimum less than I currently have the players placed on to cover any possible mistakes I might have in my count and hopefully still cover the lines.

I will stake another $50 when I create another bet I’m happy with for reasonable odds.

It is too tight for 3rd this year to pick an accurate trifecta but I love the idea of a Dangerfield/Fyfe quinella and exacta.

Cheers guys

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Hi all, don’t often post but each year I do my own round by round count each Sunday night. The last two years I’ve only missed 4 of 36 team top vote getters, and have hit the trifecta in 16 and 17, would’ve had it boxed last year if not for Brayshaw too.

Anyhow, my top 20 is as follows

27 - Dangerfield
25 - Fyfe
24 - Martin, Bontempelli, Neale, Kelly, Treloar
22 - Cripps, Grundy
21 - Macrae
19 - Boak
18 - Pendlebury, Dunkley, Shuey, Zorko
17 - Merrett, Worpel
16 - Gaff, M.Crouch, Higgins

Leaning towards the fact I may have slightly overpolled Zorko, Shuey and Worpel (round 1 should be a good gauge as to how the umps will rate him).

I have currently requested three
Buildabet’s on BetEasy which are -

$50 bet @ $4
M.Murphy w/o Cripps (3 clear of a Curnow/Walsh/McKay)
Prestia w/o Martin (6 clear of Houli)
Gawn
Higgins

$30 bet @ $9
Bulldogs 75+ team votes
Gaff 14+
J.Kelly & M.Crouch 12+
M.Murphy 8+
O.Wines 6+

$20 bet @ $9
Boak, Merrett, Pendlebury, Zorko 15+
Shiel, Ablett, Lyons 10+
B.Brown, B.Hill, O.Wines 5+

In the last two bets I’ve created, Ive allowed two votes minimum less than I currently have the players placed on to cover any possible mistakes I might have in my count and hopefully still cover the lines.

I will stake another $50 when I create another bet I’m happy with for reasonable odds.

It is too tight for 3rd this year to pick an accurate trifecta but I love the idea of a Dangerfield/Fyfe quinella and exacta.

Cheers guys

Saw the Murphy w/o Cripps, Prestia w/o Martin, Higgins, Gawn bet before and was liking it until i realised you can get the same bet on SB at $6.40 powerplayed

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Funny how a few weeks after completion of season no one is talking up a tied winner anymore. I haven't bet this but still think theres a possibility

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Better Loosen Up]

really regret not unloading more on Whitfield Rd 9 @1.70 that was free money.
Brown is $1.22 Rd 22 beteasy seems like safe interest, 10 goals has to get 3 votes...

Goldy had a massive one that night. Genuine 50/50 i think

 

[jack 23]

Cognilio o/u topsport and beteasy $1.9 and $2

cheap chance at a 1 point middle play.

 

[mitchzz]

Starting to think I've put Worpel into too many team multis

First round is massive for his result

 

[Lewis#3]

whats everyone’s thoughts on Essendon with Merrett? I don’t have Shiel getting many votes at all but are struggling to see anyone beat him

 

[jack 23]

you can get a guaranteed 5% ROI betting on grundy:

Topsport over 17.5 $1.65
Pointsbet under 16 $4.75
and Beteasy 17 $7.5

my bankroll is absolutely depleted by Brownlow betting so cant get much out of it.

usually would load up on this though.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Goldy had a massive one that night. Genuine 50/50 i think

This one is fraught with danger in terms of loading up on Brown. Goldstein was massive and can easily see him pinching the 3.

 

[kylegee28]

Lewis Taylor to poll a vote $1.75, round 11 will be his only game to possibly poll and surely he picks up at least 1?

Theft if he doesn't poll that game. I had him Best on.

 

[Slipps]

Surely fyfe to get more votes than goldcoast is a lock at $1.88

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Surely fyfe to get more votes than goldcoast is a lock at $1.88

Where is this?

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Theft if he doesn't poll that game. I had him Best on.

If you had him for the 3 then you might think $13 for him to poll the 3 on BE is value

 

[Slipps]

Where is this?

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Lewis Taylor and Adam Saad to poll a vote $2.50 BE

 

[demon_fanatic]

What did gcoast poll last year? Neale looks crazy good value $21 to poll most 2 vote games at $21
.. afl article has him listed hot in 5 games for the likely 3 and then "chance" in 10 others I think he's got the highest"chance" matches out of all contenders so hopefully a lot turn into 2s

 

[NonPhixion]

What did gcoast poll last year? Neale looks crazy good value $21 to poll most 2 vote games at $21
.. afl article has him listed hot in 5 games for the likely 3 and then "chance" in 10 others I think he's got the highest"chance" matches out of all contenders so hopefully a lot turn into 2s

Where is this? I really like it, great value for sure. Alright found it on beteasy, into $19. Told myself I wasn’t going to make any more bets, already have 57U of action. But good find.
I see the other contenders with more clear cut 3 vote games, Fyffe, Danger & Bont. Macrae the most likely concern

 

[seppo_222]

BetEasy build a bet market- Shuey, Yeo, Gaff, Sheed 10+ votes, Hurn 6+votes, Tim Kelly Top 10 and Nat Fyfe top 3. Paying 7.50.
2 words.
Load. Up.