Resource 2019 Draft Watch (we have picks 6 24 25 39 46)

[GROTTO]

Its all well and good that you can read one paper, but ill take my 5 years of study and specialization in knee injuries over that any day. With proper rehab and patience, the re-tear rate is closer to 6%

Its all well and good that you think you can discredit a respected, leading and experienced specialist in the field with your relatively short time in the area.

And? Im not even sure what you are getting at here? He drew a conclusion from his study showed re-tear is 6X likely within 2 years. If you understood science, studies, data and how conclusions are drawn. You would appreciate that was just his observations, where he made inferences from the data.

That isnt the only study there are many studies in this area that highlight the high risk of recurrences, there are multiple studies suporting his findings of high risk of ACL tear recurrence.

I will take accredited professional and experienced researchers doing the proper research and analysis into knee injuries over a person with 5 or less years of experience in the field.

A La Trobe University study, published last year, reported a recurrence rate of 30 per cent with the incidence being particularly high in young players.

"The study’s findings have shocked the researchers and prompted them to question whether young athletes who have sustained serious knee injuries should be encouraged to give up high-risk sports.The researchers studied 128 patients who had already undergone two knee reconstructions before the age of 25, after injuring their anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) – the knee’s main stabilising ligament. The majority (91 per cent) played either AFL, basketball, soccer or netball before their injury. Lead researcher Associate Professor Kate Webster said the most surprising finding from the research was the high rate of repeated ACL injuries among the group. More than one quarter (27 per cent) of the group had suffered three ACL injuries. “There is always a risk of re-injury with an ACL, but what we didn’t expect to see was three – and even four - ACLs in the same patient,” Associate Professor Webster said."

 

[GROTTO]

Compare the pair:



Both played Sanfl in their draft year in good Norwood teams, both outside leaning. If we were going to take an outside player at 4 I'd be taking Young, S.A. bias aside.

Thats the scary thing about taking highlights packages they can at times deceive you as to how good a player really is.

Looks like Pick 1.

 

[Elite Crow]

If we are heavily considering Stephens, I'd say it's a sign we are considering a pick swap and weighing up 2 vs 1, something like Stephens + Gould (or Jackson) vs Ash or Serong.

I’ve missed something, has there been reports we are heavily considering Stephens?

 

[hugecannon]

IMO in time Mitch O'Neill a similar style player to Stephens equally as skilled with both an inside and outside game will be as good or better and there's every chance he's there at our 2nd pick, for some unfathomable reason he's dropped down draft boards? Dual All Australian in U18's 2018 & 2019. I can only put it down to Mitch picking up an injury after the Championships thus falling off the radar. Tasmanian lad who I'm sure won't have fallen off Hamish's radar.

It worries me with O’Neill and Jones with a team coming from Tassie in the near future, expansion clubs seem to enjoy picking players off of us.

 

[GROTTO]

It worries me with O’Neill and Jones with a team coming from Tassie in the near future, expansion clubs seem to enjoy picking players off of us.

Need to make sure we get the contract timings right so he is contracted when they can grab players, then hold the Tassie team to ransom if they want Jones in particular.

A local kid that wants to go home, is going to be worth its weight in gold to the new Tassie team. I would expect a Kelly-like return for him.

 

[Mutineer]

It worries me with O’Neill and Jones with a team coming from Tassie in the near future, expansion clubs seem to enjoy picking players off of us.

They'll both be retired before that happens.

 

[Mutineer]

I’ve missed something, has there been reports we are heavily considering Stephens?

Mainly by the usual suspect.....

 

[GROTTO]

They'll both be retired before that happens.

I was of the understanding that a Tassie team is about 4-5 years away? I though 2025 was the date? Maybe I was drunk like Robbo when I heard it.

 

[texas_ranger]

Its all well and good that you think you can discredit a respected, leading and experienced specialist in the field with your relatively short time in the area.

And? Im not even sure what you are getting at here? He drew a conclusion from his study showed re-tear is 6X likely within 2 years. If you understood science, studies, data and how conclusions are drawn. You would appreciate that was just his observations, where he made inferences from the data.

That isnt the only study there are many studies in this area that highlight the high risk of recurrences, there are multiple studies suporting his findings of high risk of ACL tear recurrence.

I will take accredited professional and experienced researchers doing the proper research and analysis into knee injuries over a person with 5 or less years of experience in the field.

A La Trobe University study, published last year, reported a recurrence rate of 30 per cent with the incidence being particularly high in young players.

"The study’s findings have shocked the researchers and prompted them to question whether young athletes who have sustained serious knee injuries should be encouraged to give up high-risk sports.The researchers studied 128 patients who had already undergone two knee reconstructions before the age of 25, after injuring their anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) – the knee’s main stabilising ligament. The majority (91 per cent) played either AFL, basketball, soccer or netball before their injury. Lead researcher Associate Professor Kate Webster said the most surprising finding from the research was the high rate of repeated ACL injuries among the group. More than one quarter (27 per cent) of the group had suffered three ACL injuries. “There is always a risk of re-injury with an ACL, but what we didn’t expect to see was three – and even four - ACLs in the same patient,” Associate Professor Webster said."

Yes but all of these studies are looking at ACL injuries across the Normal population, Of course there is some increased risk but this can also be due to the same reason the initial injury occurred in the first place. Through proper rehab and biomechanic adjustments, it brings the risk down significantly. Mick Hughes has multiple articles on this.

 

[GreyCrow]

We weren’t too unusual last year.

The KM final phantom had us as follows:
9 Caldwell
16 Jones
19 McHenry

Even pre trade with his first mock he had is taking McHenry at 15.

Whilst Ned was a surprise to many - his selection was clearly around the mark.

Jones is the one looking like a bit of a reach, but he had a significant run of senior league form post champs, similar to Rozee, they both elevated late.

I’m more happy with what I’ve seen of Jones and McHenry

I wonder if our looming pick swap changed the order of these? ie Hamish was happy to concede Caldwell to get Jones and McHenry as a set piece

 

[GreyCrow]

the hightlight reel on Luke Jackson from WA looks pretty f'ing good.. any chance we pull the trigger on him?
(my thinking is we sell 4 to GWS for two top 15 picks)

I have liked him since last years (2018) champs. Saw him at Alberton. Had my eyes on Rozee, Luko etc and then this spring heeled kid just grabbed my attention.

Felt he was a very mobile, agile Ruck .

There have been 2 types of ruck , the solid tap the ball down and take marks down the line - the dinosaurs

Then we have the Nic Natanui prototype that Dean Cox started morphing to. The ruck who becomes a 4th midfielder, bends his back and gets the ball themselves, or presents as a running handball option. This is Luke Jackson

I get the feeling Fremantle traded down for his exact spot - that pick just on the top 10 edge

 

[Elite Crow]

Mainly by the usual suspect.....

Surely people aren’t still listening to what he posts? Even after his bullshit, I mean miss rate?

 

[hey shorty]

Surely people aren’t still listening to what he posts? Even after his bullshit, I mean miss, rate?

He's becoming a parody of himself

 

[Crow till I die]

This is going to be a long long 4 weeks till draft night. We should have a playstation deal counter thread if someone can be arsed for our board..I'd bet that come draft night there will be close to a thousand posts outlining pick swap deals..

 

[Thetrader15]

This is going to be a long long 4 weeks till draft night. We should have a playstation deal counter thread if someone can be arsed for our board..I'd bet that come draft night there will be close to a thousand posts outlining pick swap deals..

And no actual pick swaps!

 

[Elite Crow]

This is going to be a long long 4 weeks till draft night. We should have a playstation deal counter thread if someone can be arsed for our board..I'd bet that come draft night there will be close to a thousand posts outlining pick swap deals..

A thread dedicated to PlayStation trades would be a good idea, that way they don’t infest the other threads.

 

[Thunderstruck]

I wouldn't be worried about height too much, Caleb Daniel is an even more extreme example, 163cm and probably would have been All Australian this year has he not been injured. If they can play, they can play. Just back your eyes and watch them play football, it's a far superior analysis tool than any other testing method. Sometimes we get a bit carried away with over-analysis of a player and their little bits and pieces I feel...

 

[Draft Bored]

If true it would make sense to trade with GWS and get their next years first


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Agreed, if Stephens is the target we must trade down.

If we can get this trade over the line I think it can set up our 2019 and 2020 drafts. Seems excessive but when you think about it GWS are securing 2 top 5 picks with essentially 6, ~20 and ~50 after FS/Academy kids next year. Our 49 adds points so I think they only take a 350ish deficit into next years draft. If they can't trade for 3 or 4 they'll have to match us at 4 or Sydney at 5 and end up with a very poor second pick.

ADEL: 4 + 49
GWS: 6 + Future 1st + Future 3rd + Future 3rd

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Thats the scary thing about taking highlights packages they can at times deceive you as to how good a player really is.

Looks like Pick 1.

Lol. half those highlights had danger, thommo and van berlo in them

 

[Crow_68]

Agreed, if Stephens is the target we must trade down.

If we can get this trade over the line I think it can set up our 2019 and 2020 drafts. Seems excessive but when you think about it GWS are securing 2 top 5 picks with essentially 6, ~20 and ~50 after FS/Academy kids next year. Our 49 adds points so I think they only take a 350ish deficit into next years draft. If they can't trade for 3 or 4 they'll have to match us at 4 or Sydney at 5 and end up with a very poor second pick.

ADEL: 4 + 49
GWS: 6 + Future 1st + Future 3rd + Future 3rd

If you trade a future 1st, cant trade future picks from any other round.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jirkago]

Agreed, if Stephens is the target we must trade down.

If we can get this trade over the line I think it can set up our 2019 and 2020 drafts. Seems excessive but when you think about it GWS are securing 2 top 5 picks with essentially 6, ~20 and ~50 after FS/Academy kids next year. Our 49 adds points so I think they only take a 350ish deficit into next years draft. If they can't trade for 3 or 4 they'll have to match us at 4 or Sydney at 5 and end up with a very poor second pick.

ADEL: 4 + 49
GWS: 6 + Future 1st + Future 3rd + Future 3rd

People on here keep saying but we traded 9 and 19 for 4, Who cares. Always look after the club, this is a great deal for us which will be very helpful. We could go into next year with 2 firsts or trade the GWS next year for another pick in the teens for this year.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[mistylake]

He's good, but he's also very very outside and has whipping boy written all over him.

Someone here said he’s hard at it and aggressive. Doesn’t sound very very outside to me. Ive only seen this highlights video though.

 

[mistylake]

Thats the scary thing about taking highlights packages they can at times deceive you as to how good a player really is.

Looks like Pick 1.

damn I thought you meant resigns.

 

[Dudersaurus]

Yes but all of these studies are looking at ACL injuries across the Normal population, Of course there is some increased risk but this can also be due to the same reason the initial injury occurred in the first place. Through proper rehab and biomechanic adjustments, it brings the risk down significantly. Mick Hughes has multiple articles on this.

I skimmed the article a couple of weeks back when I posted the link, and not going to read it again just to make a point, but you know you might both be right?

One is referencing absolute rates (6%) and the other relative risk (6x rate). Given the background rate of ACL injury as a ballpark I'd guess would be 1% per annum in AFL, these are basically the same.

 

[texas_ranger]

I skimmed the article a couple of weeks back when I posted the link, and not going to read it again just to make a point, but you know you might both be right?

One is referencing absolute rates (6%) and the other relative risk (6x rate). Given the background rate of ACL injury as a ballpark I'd guess would be 1% per annum in AFL, these are basically the same.

Yeah this is correct, However, the article he is referencing predominantly looks at female athletes which is completely different, just have to look at last year's AFLW to see how much more prone females are to these types of injuries.