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A couple changes. Newman > Blakely and Treloar > M.Crouch
Teams 2019 My RDT Team: H&A
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- Mar 20, 2013
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What are peoples thoughts on Macrae in the mids?
I was locking in Mitchell as hd full faith he would be #1 scorer and perform around his priced at average and also be a reliable captain "guaranteeing" extra early points.
Macre is the obvious like for like replacement with him being head and shoulders above the next best mid based on last years or even personal best average. I just have this nagging uncertainty that he can go near that again. Wont be surprised if he does, but also wont be surprised if he returns to be part of that next, congested pack behind him.
Problem is if not going him, who? as in that next pack there are so many who could be top 6.
Im all but locked on M Crouch, J Kelly and Merrett but then other big mid is stumping me as theres so many in that 105-110 average who may or may not jump up, hold, or drop down. To be happy with that pick as a starting selection your really wanting a top 10 of the pure mids (for Macrae really needs to be top 1 or 2)
Really any of the 105 averages from last year but wanting them to average 108-110 (or more).
Seb Ross and Bradshaw tempt me but also most concerning they could have the biggest drop of that pack!
I was locking in Mitchell as hd full faith he would be #1 scorer and perform around his priced at average and also be a reliable captain "guaranteeing" extra early points.
Macre is the obvious like for like replacement with him being head and shoulders above the next best mid based on last years or even personal best average. I just have this nagging uncertainty that he can go near that again. Wont be surprised if he does, but also wont be surprised if he returns to be part of that next, congested pack behind him.
Problem is if not going him, who? as in that next pack there are so many who could be top 6.
Im all but locked on M Crouch, J Kelly and Merrett but then other big mid is stumping me as theres so many in that 105-110 average who may or may not jump up, hold, or drop down. To be happy with that pick as a starting selection your really wanting a top 10 of the pure mids (for Macrae really needs to be top 1 or 2)
Really any of the 105 averages from last year but wanting them to average 108-110 (or more).
Seb Ross and Bradshaw tempt me but also most concerning they could have the biggest drop of that pack!
Going back 4-5 years ago, an 85+ average was in the top echelon for defenders. We are now looking at 95+ for the top 6.
Great that afl.com.au have just provided us with details of the top 10 players who took the kick ins last year.
Llyod took the kick in more than any other player - 157 and only played on 28% of the time. If he were to do the same again next year it would equate to an extra 113 kicks, or 339 points. That's over 15 points per game - assuming he will go beyond the 10 meter square before he kicks it which is almost certain.
Hurn was next best but I'm not going there.
Witherden was third with 126 although he did play on @ 41.3% of those. That would have meant an extra 74 kicks (222 points) or 10 points per game.
I think that is enough for me to have both of them in my side.
Llyod took the kick in more than any other player - 157 and only played on 28% of the time. If he were to do the same again next year it would equate to an extra 113 kicks, or 339 points. That's over 15 points per game - assuming he will go beyond the 10 meter square before he kicks it which is almost certain.
Hurn was next best but I'm not going there.
Witherden was third with 126 although he did play on @ 41.3% of those. That would have meant an extra 74 kicks (222 points) or 10 points per game.
I think that is enough for me to have both of them in my side.
guero
rock my world
Looking just at TOG% from last year, players of particular interest to me (low TOG%, indicating potential upside with higher time on ground) are:
M Crouch (75.8% - average TOG through season, including finals if applicable)
Z Merrett (76.3%)
A Brayshaw (77.5%)
A Treloar (79.2%)
J Kelly (78.9%)
In comparison, Titch was an even 90% and Macrae was 85.8%. I can’t see the players listed above lifting to 90% TOG, but they should all increase. In 2016 (I don’t have 2017 stats) Treloar (82.1%), Kelly (81.3%) and Merrett (80.2%) were all above 80% TOG through the regular season.
Obviously there are other factors that influence upside, but this is one I like to use in selecting my starting squad.
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TO be honest Im not sure id read into the TOG stats a lot for those guys except to say that the reductions are probably injury related so an easier calculation would be removing their injured games from their average. In the uninjured games their TOG is unlikely to have been any different to what to expect this year except for maybe Brayshaw whose early season hinge status may have affected him and possibly conditioning given he hadnt played a lot of AFL footy continuously.
- Mar 20, 2013
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ive given that consideration with both too.
There was another article earlier that listed who took the kick ins, who played on most, who recieved 1st mark most, etc and that put Lloyd on my radar when he wasn't really before. That article listed each club and had the top few kick in people from each included
Im not sure I can fit in Blakely and Witherden. Have Blakely at the moment despite those numbers but that could easily change.Both seemingly have upside and look top 6 defender material
- Jun 27, 2013
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Never been a Kelly fan and feel he's never had a sustained run up against regular tags due to the previous strength of GWSs midfield, but I'm probably going to have to go there to start with due to a lack of top echelon A+ mids and rather a while hoard of B+/A types who're in that 95-110 bracket who we are hoping for slight improvement due to injury plagued years the year before or something, but Kelly's potential to average 115-120 is obviously there, so will just follow the pack here to hope not to be burnt like last year not picking Cogs, while Zorko stunk it up.
Zerrett is the obvious no brainer though and last year his average was affected by that concussion plus a few early tags
However, there are so many in that 95-110 range
Kelly
Treloar
Pendles
Sidebottom
Adams
Dusty
Bont
Hunter
Macrae (I'm not locking him in for 120, feel he's more 105 at the moment until he puts another 115+ year together)
Neale
Zorko
Coniglio
Ward
Ross
Brayshaw
Oliver
JPK
Parker
Fyfe
Gaff
Yeo
Wines
Ebert
Cripps
Curnow
Mrouch
Sloane
Heppell
Zaharakis
Jelwood
Duncan
Shiels
Then you've got your injury fallens/midpricers like Hanners, Brouch, Shuey and Rocky where there's upside also, not keen on Brouch due to injury history but the other three are definitely in the mix. I guess your Miles type picks could end up here, but he might not be worth it if say Hanners, Rocky and Shuey all fire early.
Anyways, I guess from that main pool to pick from to start with, I'm most keen on
Zerrett (potential top dog)
Kelly (potential top dog)
Adams (potential top dog + great value if fit)
Bont (underpriced premium if fit, maybe a Neale type would be better here if paying a bit more)
Shuey (underpriced fallen premium, potential big return)
Rocky (same as Shuey)
Hanners (everyone will pick him)
Neale (consistency imo)
Brayshaw (future pig material)
Ross (goes under the radar, has finished the last two years strongly and has a massive DT game, potentially Hanners takes heat away from him)
Zerrett is the obvious no brainer though and last year his average was affected by that concussion plus a few early tags
However, there are so many in that 95-110 range
Kelly
Treloar
Pendles
Sidebottom
Adams
Dusty
Bont
Hunter
Macrae (I'm not locking him in for 120, feel he's more 105 at the moment until he puts another 115+ year together)
Neale
Zorko
Coniglio
Ward
Ross
Brayshaw
Oliver
JPK
Parker
Fyfe
Gaff
Yeo
Wines
Ebert
Cripps
Curnow
Mrouch
Sloane
Heppell
Zaharakis
Jelwood
Duncan
Shiels
Then you've got your injury fallens/midpricers like Hanners, Brouch, Shuey and Rocky where there's upside also, not keen on Brouch due to injury history but the other three are definitely in the mix. I guess your Miles type picks could end up here, but he might not be worth it if say Hanners, Rocky and Shuey all fire early.
Anyways, I guess from that main pool to pick from to start with, I'm most keen on
Zerrett (potential top dog)
Kelly (potential top dog)
Adams (potential top dog + great value if fit)
Bont (underpriced premium if fit, maybe a Neale type would be better here if paying a bit more)
Shuey (underpriced fallen premium, potential big return)
Rocky (same as Shuey)
Hanners (everyone will pick him)
Neale (consistency imo)
Brayshaw (future pig material)
Ross (goes under the radar, has finished the last two years strongly and has a massive DT game, potentially Hanners takes heat away from him)
Great write up, as always, pups. A little surprised that you haven't included Dusty in your list of those you're keen on. I haven't got any of the top 10 mids from last year as yet with Zerrett, Brayshaw and Dusty being my top 3. Could end up disastrously but ......
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Dusty burnt me in SC last season, paid like 119 for him to start with and only got just over 100 return, played like an absolute millionaire most of the season, seemed like he preferred a handball receive rather than a hardball, mark or tackle. Am not picking him until I see a certain hunger in him that he wants to get down and dirty and do it all himself again.
I'm a fan of the Brayshaw pick though, think he's comparable to Taylor Adams. Both are injury prone but know how to score. If they get on a run early then they'll become very expensive and hard to afford. As both are priced well under what they're capable of I think I'll look to take the punt there on one of them, maybe both.
- Jul 9, 2013
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I like the Seb Ross pick a lot. Would be a great pod.
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He's surely capable of a Armitage/Steven 2015 type of year
All the media reports seem to be telling us that he was injured in one way or another last year. I feel he is well underpriced.
BTY - what happened in SC is totally irrelevant here. This is PURELY the RDT forum.
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Players generally score well in both games
Didn't have Dusty in DT but had him in SC
Nightmare in both it seems
By the end of the season he was struggling, sure, but he was fine for most of the season and for most of the season he was very underwhelming
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2019 Prediction: Champion Data will end up making a few errors in the new kick in rule. I can see there being a few instances where a player kicks just outside the square and the umpire doesn't call play on so it won't count.
The melt thread might explode if a non kick in stat decides a league match. CD shouldn't have over complicated things imo, if we record kick ins from out on the full free kicks, we should record all returns from behinds (or none of both).
The melt thread might explode if a non kick in stat decides a league match. CD shouldn't have over complicated things imo, if we record kick ins from out on the full free kicks, we should record all returns from behinds (or none of both).
- Jul 9, 2013
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I'm hoping you're wrong on this. Otherwise I'm sure to lose a game in this manner based on my luck. With the man on the mark being further back off the mark, and teams wanting to move the ball quickly, players taking the kick in should be well outside the square before disposing of the ball, which should leave little doubt for CD.
- Mar 20, 2013
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Thinking out loud, I wonder if teams will set their zones deeper to try combat the ability to kick from further out (logically the obvious need)
This could leave more space for the short kick to the pocket, with that player then looking to clear the zone.
That 1st kick would be the usual 1-2 step kick so be from within square and may not see stats increase for as higher % of kick ins as we expect
This could leave more space for the short kick to the pocket, with that player then looking to clear the zone.
That 1st kick would be the usual 1-2 step kick so be from within square and may not see stats increase for as higher % of kick ins as we expect
I tend to think that the forward defending the kicker will be blocked more often by another defender allowing the kicker to gain 20+ meters before kicking. I doubt we'll see too many of the dinky little kicks to the pocket. If that is so, all those who received those easy +6s last year will no longer get them.
- Jul 9, 2013
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Completely agree. I think teams will look to go straighter and much faster from full back.
After the 30th change to my current squad (at least), I am now thinking there will be a heap of good cash cows in the mids this year. In saying that I am referring more to the rooks available rather than the mid - lower priced players. My team breakdown has changed considerably and now looks like:
Based on Premium: $650K+, Mid: $500K - $650K, Cheap: $250K - $500K and rook: <$250K
Defense - 2, 1, 2, 1 Originally it was 0, 0, 5, 1
Mids - 3, 0, 2, 3 Orig 4, 0, 3, 1
Rucks - 1, 0, 1, 0 Orig 1, 1, 0, 0
Fwds - 2, 2, 2, 0 Orig 1, 2, 3, 0
As you can see, I am now spending far more cash on my defense, a little more in the fwds, less in the ruck and a lot less in midfield.
I have just deleted Hall for a rook in order to bring Blakely into defense. Although Hall represents value, I'm not convinced he will spend enough time in North's midfield.
Based on Premium: $650K+, Mid: $500K - $650K, Cheap: $250K - $500K and rook: <$250K
Defense - 2, 1, 2, 1 Originally it was 0, 0, 5, 1
Mids - 3, 0, 2, 3 Orig 4, 0, 3, 1
Rucks - 1, 0, 1, 0 Orig 1, 1, 0, 0
Fwds - 2, 2, 2, 0 Orig 1, 2, 3, 0
As you can see, I am now spending far more cash on my defense, a little more in the fwds, less in the ruck and a lot less in midfield.
I have just deleted Hall for a rook in order to bring Blakely into defense. Although Hall represents value, I'm not convinced he will spend enough time in North's midfield.
toxic
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Pretty similar to mine
Defense - 3, 0, 2, 1
Mids - 4, 0, 1, 3
Rucks - 1, 0, 1, 0
Fwds - 2, 1, 1, 2
That also has 290k in the bank though. So one of the Def, mid or fwd "cheap" could become another premium in any of those lines
And the million other structural variations that may occur!
End of the day we spend a lot of time making teams but its not until it becomes apparent how many rookies we can trust that we can really be sure.
Remember last year everyone was going super deep with def rookies...until we realised many of them weren't playing!
- Jul 21, 2008
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I think he meant 113 extra points.
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Thats the assumption that why wouldn't a player start on the edge of the square and at least then take a step or 2 over the line.
Reality is we dont know for sure.
Sydney supporters, is Lloyd likely to take as many kick ins or was there a reason he took more than may be expected (eg another player missing who may assume the role or who may be more suited under the new rules)
He kicked in 157 times. Of those he played on 28% of the time. Therefore given the same scenario he will be awarded with an additional 72% of those kick ins. 72% of 157 is 113. He already got the stats for the 28% of times he played on.
I thought most people would realise where I was coming from but obviously not.
YES. I do believe he will play on every time.
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