Discussion 2019 Planning Thread

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Red Syrah

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Thousands of teams start with 28 out of the same 30 players.
Its the trading that wins you the biscuits.
Timing and value are everything.

Every year half of the top 10 premo mids and often both the top 2 premo rucks drop out of their respective groups.

Most teams lock and load these super premo players who are already priced above their average at the start of the year and take risks on speculative players and previously premo midpricers.

If you have the balls and back yourself to trade in last years super premos at a discounted price then pick a side that scores you the most points with the least amount of rookies on the field.
Poor performing rookies are what bring down a team packed full of super premos.

If you think last years premos are this years trash go full mid price madness and pray that your trading ability matches the girth of your cojones.

Good luck :moustache:
 

gutsroy

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trying out a bit of logic to help me with my planning:

If looking at any of the top 1 - 2 (eg. Grundy, Gawn, Macrae, LLoyd) as upgrade targets, then wouldn't this require at least 2 trades to get the upgrade.
If upgrading to them then they are doing ok and therefore still reasonably expensive (unless they have completely bombed and dropped $150k and then is it worth bringing them in). It unlikely that you would upgrade a starting premo, so looking at a mid pricer or rookie. If rookie then it takes a downgrade to get the bank up to then upgrade another. If mid pricer, then still need a downgrade, if not then they are doing well and its not worth upgrading them.

Is this the correct logic or am I missing it?
In terms of upgrades, you'd normally plan for 2 (one up to premo, one down to lower priced rookie or whatever to get the cash to bridge the gap).

If there's a big gap, sometimes you'll have to go two up, one down, that might be the case with a ruck topliner because they're likely to stay 600k+ odd.

On the other part, not necessarily speculating on them going like busteds, because you wouldn't necessarily want to bring them in, as you say. But if that was just a one-off, their price is lower than their real value (whereas your midrpricer maybe started off better than they are long-term and is 'overpriced')

You're speculating on the premo laying an egg sometime (ideal world) rd 3-7-odd (before rd 3 the turd only stays in the rolling average 1 or 2 wks, so you don't get full advantage) and hoping your midpricer gains value. The season average is important, but the 3-rd rolling average is what you're banking on.

Assume Reilly O'Brien gets a run. Averages 80. Is up to 360k by rd 8. Assume Grundy goes 125 very week, except for an 80 rd 3. Drops to 635k.

You've also got a 123k rookie in your squad who averages 75 rds 1-8. Is up to 340k by rd 8. 340+360=700-635=65k.

So if you've got 60k or so in the kitty, you've spent two trades, but you've turned ROB + rookie + bit of cash into gun nd rookie cow which hopefully moos.

It costs you a touch more than 300 points in ruck scores, but you've scored more on other lines because ROB cost you 570k less to start with and, you being an extremely cluey operator, you have spent those $ wisely in the gift shop to bolster your squad elsewhere and are ahead of the game.

Not saying it will work out that way in practice, if a Grundy or Gawn, e.g., goes apeshit and belts out a 170 in rd 3, you can take out 435 mortgages on the house and still can't afford the prick, so just an example.

This probably hasn't helped at all.
 
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Keg on legs

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Good advice guys. Red Syrah feel free to hang around here for advice. Everyone will be happy to help (until you get good then we will screw you dry)

What you were planning is pretty much right. It's all about selling high and buying low. Like the stock market but with more puppies
 

Red Syrah

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In terms of upgrades, you'd normally plan for 2 (one up to premo, one down to lower priced rookie or whatever to get the cash to bridge the gap).

If there's a big gap, sometimes you'll have to go two up, one down, that might be the case with a ruck topliner because they're likely to stay 600k+ odd.

On the other part, not necessarily speculating on them going like busteds, because you wouldn't necessarily want to bring them in, as you say. But if that was just a one-off, their price is lower than their real value (whereas your midrpricer maybe started off better than they are long-term and is 'overpriced')

You're speculating on the premo laying an egg sometime (ideal world) rd 3-7-odd (before rd 3 the turd only stays in the rolling average 1 or 2 wks, so you don't get full advantage) and hoping your midpricer gains value. The season average is important, but the 3-rd rolling average is what you're banking on.

Assume Reilly O'Brien gets a run. Averages 80. Is up to 360k by rd 8. Assume Grundy goes 125 very week, except for an 80 rd 3. Drops to 635k.

You've also got a 123k rookie in your squad who averages 75 rds 1-8. Is up to 340k by rd 8. 340+360=700-635=65k.

So if you've got 60k or so in the kitty, you've spent two trades, but you've turned ROB + rookie + bit of cash into gun nd rookie cow which hopefully moos.

It costs you a touch more than 300 points in ruck scores, but you've scored more on other lines because ROB cost you 570k less to start with and, you being an extremely cluey operator, you have spent those $ wisely in the gift shop to bolster your squad elsewhere and are ahead of the game.

Not saying it will work out that way in practice, if a Grundy or Gawn, e.g., goes apeshit and belts out a 170 in rd 3, you can take out 435 mortgages on the house and still can't afford the prick, so just an example.

This probably hasn't helped at all.
Hey thanks, that's my sort of reasoning. Makes perfect sense.

Working through the rucks and trying to decide how much to spend. I think its interesting to note that unless Grundy and Gawn really go bust, if they score 110 r1-8 then they lose $100K each - but are still probably top 1 and 2 rucks. Only question is if Goldstein can step up and he might be ok and be 3rd ruck but then if the top 2 go big, how many points are lost each week.

The other lines have more value picks for 50 - 100K less than the top player, so more to think about.

Thanks for the explanation.
 

Keg on legs

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Hey thanks, that's my sort of reasoning. Makes perfect sense.

Working through the rucks and trying to decide how much to spend. I think its interesting to note that unless Grundy and Gawn really go bust, if they score 110 r1-8 then they lose $100K each - but are still probably top 1 and 2 rucks. Only question is if Goldstein can step up and he might be ok and be 3rd ruck but then if the top 2 go big, how many points are lost each week.

The other lines have more value picks for 50 - 100K less than the top player, so more to think about.

Thanks for the explanation.
FWIW i will be starting with one of Gawn and Grundy plus Goldy. I'm hoping which ever one i don't pick drops 100k and Goldy goes up 50k making it easier to swap straight across at some stage.
 

ROOINYOU

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I don't get guys starting with Goldy and talking of trading him out to the fallen Grundy/Gawn.
wouldn't it make more sense to start Hoff then swing him fwd when we have funds and price has bottomed out on The big G's?
I thought one of the golden rules was don't trade playing premos...what am I missing here guys?
if you start with Goldy you back him for the year, if you start with someone like Kreuzer/Hickey or really anyone under 500K I could see it.
...not Goldy though!
wasted trades!
 

vast

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Thread starter #3,885
I don't get guys starting with Goldy and talking of trading him out to the fallen Grundy/Gawn.
wouldn't it make more sense to start Hoff then swing him fwd when we have funds and price has bottomed out on The big G's?
I thought one of the golden rules was don't trade playing premos...what am I missing here guys?
if you start with Goldy you back him for the year, if you start with someone like Kreuzer/Hickey or really anyone under 500K I could see it.
...not Goldy though!
wasted trades!
If the scoring difference mirrors last year than it wouldnt be wasted. There are several scenarios where it could he a feasible trade but alot has to play out before that is made.
 

ROOINYOU

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If the scoring difference mirrors last year than it wouldnt be wasted. There are several scenarios where it could he a feasible trade but alot has to play out before that is made.
fair enough...but surely that's a luxury trade at the back end.
almost sounds like starting off down a couple trades if its planned.
 

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ubeaut

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I don't get guys starting with Goldy and talking of trading him out to the fallen Grundy/Gawn.
wouldn't it make more sense to start Hoff then swing him fwd when we have funds and price has bottomed out on The big G's?
I thought one of the golden rules was don't trade playing premos...what am I missing here guys?
if you start with Goldy you back him for the year, if you start with someone like Kreuzer/Hickey or really anyone under 500K I could see it.
...not Goldy though!
wasted trades!
To me there are no rules in SC, only guidelines. That sort of thinking was why people got stuck with Billings and Hibberd last year. Usually you don't want to be trading premos out, but certain circumstances warrant it.
If Gawn is going 15+ points more than Goldy, then it's worth it. Another case could be Zorko going at 100 so you trade him to Oliver going 116.
As for the Hoff most wouldn't even consider him if not for DPP. Chances are low he backs up his first ever season over 100. Too many players ahead of him in the fwds pecking order to pick him for me.
 

SHAKESPEARE

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As for the Hoff most wouldn't even consider him if not for DPP. Chances are low he backs up his first ever season over 100. Too many players ahead of him in the fwds pecking order to pick him for me.
Westhoff will be a serviceable F6 and possibly a R2 when somebody misses at some point.

That DPP is valuable for me. Worth the punt
 

ROOINYOU

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To me there are no rules in SC, only guidelines. That sort of thinking was why people got stuck with Billings and Hibberd last year. Usually you don't want to be trading premos out, but certain circumstances warrant it.
If Gawn is going 15+ points more than Goldy, then it's worth it. Another case could be Zorko going at 100 so you trade him to Oliver going 116.
As for the Hoff most wouldn't even consider him if not for DPP. Chances are low he backs up his first ever season over 100. Too many players ahead of him in the fwds pecking order to pick him for me.
I think you want to worry about upgrading rooks first who can be dropped on the back of 1 poor game, before considering trading a guy averaging 100.
you need too much to go right if you plan on trading up Goldy from the start.
very high chance you get stuck with Goldy(not a bad thing) when rookies are being dropped or underperforming.
yes 100 to 116 is worth a trade, but not till all lines are filled with premo/keepers.
 
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