Stanley would be the guy I'd look at if there's a market, he pretty much plays CHF in our current structure and will be overs due to being named first Ruck, wouldn't be surprised if he kicked 2 or 3 tbh...
AFL 2020 - AFL Finals week two (no aftertiming allowed)
- Thread starter balmainforever
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md20
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The more I think about it, Aarts is undervalued at
$1.45 AGS
$3.75 2+.
Considering Butler is
$1.72 AGS
$5 2+.
Im alot more confident in Butler kicking goals than Aarts.
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$1.45 AGS
$3.75 2+.
Considering Butler is
$1.72 AGS
$5 2+.
Im alot more confident in Butler kicking goals than Aarts.
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- May 6, 2009
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In the pies game I've gone:
0-20 match goals
Under 16.5 match goals
Pendles 15+ @$2 boosted
Game points under 150
Game points under 110.5
Dangermouse 15+ @$2.10
Guthrie 15+
Guthrie 20+
Duncan 15+ @$2 boosted
Aiming for 3 outright wins and 3 bonus bets back from those 6 across the 2 games.
So am I as I'm pretty sure Aarts was dropped.
How Rioli keeps his spot is anyone's guess. He fluked a couple goals but he had a howler, never gets near the ball. If his surname was Smith he'd be playing for Frankstown seconds
md20
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My bad, didn't know teams were out and thought Rioli would be the one to go out.
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heres my strategy for the Coll vs Geel game with the x3 SGM refunds.
Base around Pies starting strong
1st: qtr time margin -Coll 1-8, Pendles & Danger 15+ $5
2nd: qtr time margin - Coll 9-16, Pendles & Danger 15+ $8.90
3rd: qtr time margin -Coll 17-24, Pendles & Danger 15+ $20.25
To cover the bases small single bets on Coll qtr time margin 25-32 $41 & 33+ $176.
Picked Pendles & Danger as i think they are the 2 safest legs possible, the only world i see them not hitting 15 is an early injury, so praying to the punting gods this doesnt happen. This year Pendles is 14/14. 18 last week was his lowest number for the year. Danger is 17/18. Missed when he collected 14 against Sydney playing mostly fwd.
The Collingwood 1st quarter stats still stack up.
Record: 11-5-2 this year. 3 of those 1st quarter losses coming in R11,12,13 when they were really struggling and form hit rock bottom. Started well vs West Coast last week and am happy to take a chance here and say they start well again. Barring injuries to the two mentioned players, any Collingwood lead at qtr time will land a nice profit, with 2/3 BB's back.
Base around Pies starting strong
1st: qtr time margin -Coll 1-8, Pendles & Danger 15+ $5
2nd: qtr time margin - Coll 9-16, Pendles & Danger 15+ $8.90
3rd: qtr time margin -Coll 17-24, Pendles & Danger 15+ $20.25
To cover the bases small single bets on Coll qtr time margin 25-32 $41 & 33+ $176.
Picked Pendles & Danger as i think they are the 2 safest legs possible, the only world i see them not hitting 15 is an early injury, so praying to the punting gods this doesnt happen. This year Pendles is 14/14. 18 last week was his lowest number for the year. Danger is 17/18. Missed when he collected 14 against Sydney playing mostly fwd.
The Collingwood 1st quarter stats still stack up.
Record: 11-5-2 this year. 3 of those 1st quarter losses coming in R11,12,13 when they were really struggling and form hit rock bottom. Started well vs West Coast last week and am happy to take a chance here and say they start well again. Barring injuries to the two mentioned players, any Collingwood lead at qtr time will land a nice profit, with 2/3 BB's back.
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That's what I like to see, a bit of strategy rather than just throwing darts.
If I were you I wouldn't be bothering with margins beyond 16 points.
Both teams play low scoring, keepings off chess style- all the more so in big games.
A 20 point lead in the first qtr would probably be game over
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I would post this in the IPL thread but as far as I can tell there isn't one.
Warner has scored a 50 in every single one of his last eight matches against Punjab.
He also scored 60 a few days ago in his most recent match. His team play Punjab tonight.
Paying $3.40 to score 50, and $3.40 for most runs (Hyderabad), TAB, I've got a unit on both.
Even if he gets out between 30-49, that could be enough for most runs, because Bairstow could go cheaply.
Warner has scored a 50 in every single one of his last eight matches against Punjab.
He also scored 60 a few days ago in his most recent match. His team play Punjab tonight.
Paying $3.40 to score 50, and $3.40 for most runs (Hyderabad), TAB, I've got a unit on both.
Even if he gets out between 30-49, that could be enough for most runs, because Bairstow could go cheaply.
Careful as his last game was at sharjah stadium which has been putting up massive scores.
Kent listed fwd pocket.
1u Ags @2.90 b365.
0.5u 2g+ @7.50 b365
0.1u 3g+ @34 b365
Also with no Aarts playing - who subs into the fwd line when a Rich fwd needs a rest on the bench? theres no fwds on the rich IC - I assume it therefore means bolton/castagna/graham push fwd when a fwd needs a break then?
1u Ags @2.90 b365.
0.5u 2g+ @7.50 b365
0.1u 3g+ @34 b365
Also with no Aarts playing - who subs into the fwd line when a Rich fwd needs a rest on the bench? theres no fwds on the rich IC - I assume it therefore means bolton/castagna/graham push fwd when a fwd needs a break then?
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- May 6, 2009
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With lonie and butler in the side he wont get that close to goal too often.
He'll play half forward- butler and lonie will be deep at kings feet.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Its good that you got on these bets now, I expect the late money to come for the Pies.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Good value bet and unit management here, ignore the criticism.
edit: Kent just came up on lads @4's
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Riewoldt AGS, Lynch AGS & King AGS $2.05 SB
Butler 2+ $5 SB
Lynch 2+, Riewoldt AGS, Castagna AGS, King AGS & Butler AGS $9.25 boosted to $10.30 SB
Butler 2+ $5 SB
Lynch 2+, Riewoldt AGS, Castagna AGS, King AGS & Butler AGS $9.25 boosted to $10.30 SB
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Jack Steele O20.5 $1.82 -Lads
Covered 15/18, no threat of a tag from Richmond. What am I missing ?
Covered 15/18, no threat of a tag from Richmond. What am I missing ?
md20
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Butler 2+
Prestia 15+
Steele 15+
$6.75 (SB)
Mihocek 2+
Menegola 15+
Pendlebury 15+
$4.35 (SB)
On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Prestia 15+
Steele 15+
$6.75 (SB)
Mihocek 2+
Menegola 15+
Pendlebury 15+
$4.35 (SB)
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squeaky1000
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SGM: Steele, Jones, Dusty, Prestia 15+ $2 sb
Can't be bothered getting up the stats but at a guess I'd say the 4 of them collectively have gone under 15 touches about 5 times for the season if that, happy to take this
Can't be bothered getting up the stats but at a guess I'd say the 4 of them collectively have gone under 15 touches about 5 times for the season if that, happy to take this
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Nothing.
Had a quiet game last week in his first final, so bookies have seemingly said that he's not as good in finals as H&A and priced accordingly.
This week is the first time basically all year that he's been given any price at all in the 15+ market (only not covered it once back in rnd 3 or something).
- May 6, 2009
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Ive put 2 additional 3 leg SGMs on under lads' bonus back promo:
Geel pies:
Total points over 76.5
Total point under 116.5
Total points under 111.5
@ 2.19
Saints tigs:
Total points over 115.5
Tigs H2H
Total points over 120.5
@2.44
Confident in the first 2 legs of each, so hopefully at least bonus bets back.
Geel pies:
Total points over 76.5
Total point under 116.5
Total points under 111.5
@ 2.19
Saints tigs:
Total points over 115.5
Tigs H2H
Total points over 120.5
@2.44
Confident in the first 2 legs of each, so hopefully at least bonus bets back.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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FadingTheFave
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With Aarts out I think Baker will play as a small forward, I didn't see most of the game last week but I believe he spent time FWD with 1 goal and a tackle I50. Anyway the Tigers have picked 8 defenders and with Baker starting his career as a FWD he is most likely.
2u - ATG @4.50
1u - 2+ @19
0.5u - 3+ 151 (all Bet365)
Also going a SGM involving Kent who even though hasn't kicked a goal in 5 games is 7/14 this year
2u - Baker & Kent ATG / Martin 15+ @18 (Lads)
2u - ATG @4.50
1u - 2+ @19
0.5u - 3+ 151 (all Bet365)
Also going a SGM involving Kent who even though hasn't kicked a goal in 5 games is 7/14 this year
2u - Baker & Kent ATG / Martin 15+ @18 (Lads)
md20
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Really liked this. Added him into a SGM with two 'sure' things to possibly have a free shot at it.
Kent AGS
Prestia 15+
Steele 15+
$5.24
On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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At the end of the day its about identifying value and being consistent. So kudos to Robo87
Sure Gibbs didnt score a goal in his last game, Simpson didnt get to 20+, but trains took off with Puopolo and Stratton scoring at amazing value a few weeks back.
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