AFL 2020 - AFL Finals week two (no aftertiming allowed)

[GROTTO]

Would be interested in NYRB and/or mookieb analysis of the Cats-Pies game.

In particular the formline of the two teams post R13 onwards.

Probably biased here as my lean is the Pies, but IMO the Pies have done much better over the past 6 weeks not to mention almost all those games were at the GABBA too, which also happened to coincide with returning players to their team.

 

[The_Steadier]

At the end of the day its about identifying value and being consistent. So kudos to Robo87

Sure Gibbs didnt score a goal in his last game, Simpson didnt get to 20+, but trains took off with Puopolo and Stratton scoring at amazing value a few weeks back.

Translation:

If you throw enough shit at a wall, some of it is bound to stick.

Deeply impressive strategy, thanks for the pointers mate.

It strikes me as odd that you never seem to post your own tips ahead of time... you merely seem to just play hindsight hero or sponge off others by just commenting on the generous sharing of what they are doing.

Maybe you might want to take a minute to consider that if everyone leeched off the sharing done by others as you do, and didn't contribute anything other than comments and pot shot from the cheap seats... there would infact be zero discussions in here?

 

[GROTTO]

Translation:

If you throw enough sh*t at a wall, some of it is bound to stick.

Deeply impressive strategy, thanks for the pointers mate.

It strikes me as odd that you never seem to post your own tips ahead of time... merely seem to just play hindsight hero or sponge off others generous sharing of what they are doing for you to comment on.

Dont be so salty. The fact that you edited your comment to throw that grenade at the end, speaks volumes. For starters I have ignored your posts when you try and justify your actions.

Calling you out for adding:

AGS and 2+ goal legs in a multi and adding Neale Brownlow leg to all your bets, is actually for your own good believe it or not. Also its a heads up to other punters to please not do the same. The former is just stupid idiotic betting. The latter while the odds and commentary for the past two months has been than Neale will almost definitely win, which I dont disagree with, its just not a smart way to bet in the long run. I know you cannot see this, but you being a novice punter Im sure you will learn over time.

If youre too stupid to not see this reasoning, than I seriously cannot help you.

 

[The_Steadier]

Dont be so salty. The fact that you edited your comment to throw that grenade at the end, speaks volumes. For starters I have ignored your posts when you try and justify your actions.

Calling you out for adding:

AGS and 2+ goal legs in a multi and adding Neale Brownlow leg to all your bets, is actually for your own good believe it or not. Also its a heads up to other punters to please not do the same. The former is just stupid idiotic betting. The latter while the odds and commentary for the past two months has been than Neale will almost definitely win, which I dont disagree with, its just not a smart way to bet in the long run. I know you cannot see this, but you being a novice punter Im sure you will learn over time.

If youre too stupid to not see this reasoning, than I seriously cannot help you.

Sure mate, get stuck into whatever im doing as you see fit.
We clearly don't see eye to eye, but that's life. I have no interest in impressing or convincing you of anything.

But man up and post what you're doing so I and anyone else can return the favour and pour buckets of turds on your bets if we think it's deserved.

Stop being a leech, and on behalf of all those here that generously contribute their bets- put up or shut up.

 

[NonPhixion]

With Aarts out I think Baker will play as a small forward, I didn't see most of the game last week but I believe he spent time FWD with 1 goal and a tackle I50. Anyway the Tigers have picked 8 defenders and with Baker starting his career as a FWD he is most likely.

2u - ATG @4.50
1u - 2+ @19
0.5u - 3+ 151 (all Bet365)

Also going a SGM involving Kent who even though hasn't kicked a goal in 5 games is 7/14 this year

2u - Baker & Kent ATG / Martin 15+ @18 (Lads)

you are absolutely onto something here. Great spot on Baker, I've tailed.

 

[GROTTO]

Sure mate, get stuck into whatever im doing as you see fit.

But man up and post what you're doing so I and anyone else can return the favour.

Stop being a leech.

No its not about getting stuck into you or taking pot shots in particular so dont be so precious. I called out some bets of yours that were absolutely asinine, which you got extremely salty about.

There are plenty of bets on here that I may disagree with, but I dont call posters out on them as they provide logical reason as to why they believe they are value. Thats their thoughts and opinions which I respect.

There was a thread on here, regarding the best bets of each week which I did and have been contributing to. So maybe get your facts in order before you start accusing someone.

For the record, I dont bet on every game and only bet when I see value from my vantage point, be it right or wrong.

If I am so wrong in regards to including Neale to win the Brownlow in every leg of my finals bets or to include AGS and 2+ goal scoring multis, I am happy for other posters to guide me and tell me this is the right thing to do all the time and their reason why?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

No its not about getting stuck into you or taking pot shots in particular so dont be so precious. I called out some bets of yours that were absolutely asinine, which you got extremely salty about.

There are plenty of bets on here that I may disagree with, but I dont call posters out on them as they provide logical reason as to why they believe they are value. Thats their thoughts and opinions which I respect.

There was a thread on here, regarding the best bets of each week which I did and have been contributing to. So maybe get your facts in order before you start accusing someone.

For the record, I dont bet on every game and only bet when I see value from my vantage point, be it right or wrong.

If I am so wrong in regards to including Neale to win the Brownlow in every leg of my finals bets or to include AGS and 2+ goal scoring multis, I am happy for other posters to guide me and tell me this is the right thing to do all the time and their reason why?

Patience is the key, going on every game is a receipe for disaster. Finals are slightly different and I'll have a SGM on most games, but in the normal season I usually stick to 2-3 at most. It's rare you have more than 2-3 games with value, it just doesn't happen. I honestly prefer to have a throw at the stumps on a 2 or 3+ goal scorer as unlikely as it is. It's a market I like high half forwards and Martin/Clugg in. Clugg kicking like a peanut this year hasn't helped though!

I really don't get putting Neale in at all. What honestly is the point? At $1.25 what's the value? Why not have a couple in the teams top vote at a better price. I'll just use my team but Parker should win ours, Gaff to win WCE, Martin to win Richmond...those three are more than Neale is to win and they are just as safe really.

 

[GROTTO]

Patience is the key, going on every game is a receipe for disaster. Finals are slightly different and I'll have a SGM on most games, but in the normal season I usually stick to 2-3 at most. It's rare you have more than 2-3 games with value, it just doesn't happen. I honestly prefer to have a throw at the stumps on a 2 or 3+ goal scorer as unlikely as it is. It's a market I like high half forwards and Martin/Clugg in. Clugg kicking like a peanut this year hasn't helped though!

I really don't get putting Neale in at all. What honestly is the point? At $1.25 what's the value? Why not have a couple in the teams top vote at a better price. I'll just use my team but Parker should win ours, Gaff to win WCE, Martin to win Richmond...those three are more than Neale is to win and they are just as safe really.

+1

Patience and discipline is the key and it is challenging to master, well for me it is at least. Its a skill I have not fully come to terms with. But I am getting better.

While I do take punting seriously, I do enjoy the banter and laughs on this board and have appreciated it so much. I have often thanked posters on here for the laughs given be it through their excitement or their frustration.

The Neale Brownlow leg to be included in EVERY BET (along with Serong for RS) was not me taking a shot at that poster, but its just my opinion its not the right way to go about betting in the long run and taking value bets. If this is a wrong way of thinking on my part I am happy for other posters to tell me why?

Admittedly I havent studied the Brownlow form this year, so I cant give commentary here, but as you said, I agree with you if Parker and Martin are locks and are more than Neale, why not include them makes total sense. I mean where do you stop and draw the line?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

+1

Patience and discipline is the key and it is challenging to master, well for me it is at least. Its a skill I have not fully come to terms with. But I am getting better.

While I do take punting seriously, I do enjoy the banter and laughs on this board and have appreciated it so much. I have often thanked posters on here for the laughs given be it through their excitement or their frustration.

The Neale Brownlow leg to be included in EVERY BET (along with Serong for RS) was not me taking a shot at that poster, but its just my opinion its not the right way to go about betting in the long run and taking value bets. If this is a wrong way of thinking on my part I am happy for other posters to tell me why?

Admittedly I havent studied the Brownlow form this year, so I cant give commentary here, but as you said, I agree with you if Parker and Martin are locks and are more than Neale, why not include them makes total sense. I mean where do you stop and draw the line?

Anything less than $1.30 I really don't see the point unless it's part of a 5-6 leg multi, what do you get out of backing a $1.30 pop especially in Brownlow...we've seen upsets occur in Brownlows!

 

[BloodRet]

Lynch 2
Reiwoldt
King
@3.30 sb

Reiwoldt 2
Lynch 2
Butler 2
@17.50

Agree with the Butler bets in here, liking 2+ @5 old side in a final he might be up n about. Or he shits the bed

 

[OhhDeledio]

With Aarts out I think Baker will play as a small forward, I didn't see most of the game last week but I believe he spent time FWD with 1 goal and a tackle I50. Anyway the Tigers have picked 8 defenders and with Baker starting his career as a FWD he is most likely.

2u - ATG @4.50
1u - 2+ @19
0.5u - 3+ 151 (all Bet365)

Also going a SGM involving Kent who even though hasn't kicked a goal in 5 games is 7/14 this year

2u - Baker & Kent ATG / Martin 15+ @18 (Lads)

theres a small chance, but i dont reckon they swing baker foward. didnt spend any time there last week and the goal he kicked was more just him running off half back into space. but i guess it still could be worth a shot.

i like bolton alot more. named at half forward and think they end up going back to rioli/castagna/bolton as the 3 smalls. kicked 2 goals vs the saints earlier this year and had 7 from the first 4 games before moving into the middle full time.

1+ @ 2.05 neds/lads
2+ @ 6.50
3+ @ 13 sb

 

[Atavistic]

0.5U on Baker, Kent, Martin AGS@19.79 at Neds.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I would post this in the IPL thread but as far as I can tell there isn't one.

Warner has scored a 50 in every single one of his last eight matches against Punjab.

He also scored 60 a few days ago in his most recent match. His team play Punjab tonight.

Paying $3.40 to score 50, and $3.40 for most runs (Hyderabad), TAB, I've got a unit on both.

Even if he gets out between 30-49, that could be enough for most runs, because Bairstow could go cheaply.

He hit another 50 but got outscored by Bairstow.

If you went 1u high bat 1u 50 (or any multiple thereof) you'd have ended up 1.7x original bet.

 

[The_Steadier]

what do you get out of backing a $1.30 pop

Thanks for the constructive feedback, it's great to hear from a fellow contributor- I'd love to discuss it further.

The answer to the above is pretty obvious to me- literally a 30% increase in a payout.

I completely agree that there is a point of diminishing returns where a short priced favourite becomes not worth taking a risk on.
For example, nadal paying 1.02 at the french open.
But in my estimation, a 30% increase in payout is nothing to be sneezed at- therefore I'm happy to take on some additional risk to achieve it.

A good bet, regardless of the return- be it 1.30 or $50, is one that you believe rewards you commensurately for the risk you are taking on.

You appear to be saying that you don't think that a 30% increase in payout is worth the risk that neale presents.
I say, sure- often I would agree that 1.30 favourite isn't worth the risk.
But my opinion is that neale should be much shorter still- 1.10 or under.
So I'm happy to continue to back him in because I think he's a winning bet and at longer odds than i rate him.

Not to mention, I have said previously, I'm sitting on cashout offers thanks to neale that if I took them right now, would return every penny I've outlayed.
Maybe i'll exercise some or all or none of them?
Maybe I'll throw a few coins at a couple of neales closest rivals as a hedge- and given that his closest rivals are @ 7,8,13 dollars it wont take many coins to create a sizable hedge?
Maybe sportsbet will payout early for extra publicity like they have done previously at double the odds neale is at?

The most important part of this strategy is that:
A. I have wagered an amount that im prepared to lose every cent if neale loses.

B. I don't make bets that I don't genuinely believe are a great shot at getting up.

As in, I rarely take the approach of making more frequent small bets at big odds, over larger bets at smaller odds.
It seems to me that lots of folks take a 'lottery ticket' type approach where they make little moonshot bets and jokingly describe them as 'donations'... but the reality is they are just that.

You might say it's a waste of money adding a $1.30 favourite (with the rest of the field at $7+ mind you).
That's fine- I can completely understand that is an opinion you could have.

Although my opinion is that equally, I would say that taking a scattergun approach and throwing small sums at unrealistic odds in the hope that every now and then you hit the 'lottery' which takes you back to square one- is a waste of money.

Basically I believe in the power of small things multiplying over time add up to big things.

Just as serong was for RS, by my estimation- 1.30 for neale is still overpriced plus I think it's a winning bet.
So I have no hesitation adding him wherever I can.

I will mention that I did the same earlier in the year with hawkins at 1.13 for the coleman.
You may not bother getting out of bed for a measly 13% increase in potential payout- but I do because it adds up to big value in a strategy that also includes a careful selection of other favs like serong and neale.

Those 3 short priced favourites combined have boosted my potential payouts somewhere in the order of an average of at least 80%.

 

[The_Steadier]

Gaff to win WCE, Martin to win Richmond...those three are more than Neale is to win and they are just as safe really.

You're not talking about gaff @ $5 (behind kelly and nicnat at half those odds) for most wc votes are you?

If so, I'd frankly be amazed if you found any single person that genuinely agreed with you that gaff is just as likely to win WC most votes as neale is the win the brownlow.

(Also FYI, if you were referring to dusty winning tigs most votes, from what I can see you can't actually make that bet anymore)

 

[Prochard123]

Anything less than $1.30 I really don't see the point unless it's part of a 5-6 leg multi, what do you get out of backing a $1.30 pop especially in Brownlow...we've seen upsets occur in Brownlows!

If a bet is a 99% chance of being successful, you wouldn't include this $1.30 leg?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If a bet is a 99% chance of being successful, you wouldn't include this $1.30 leg?

Rarely unless it's in a multi. They don't interest me that much especially for Brownlows...there's always upsets when dealing with umpires. I'd rather just not bet and watch the $1.30 pop win rather than take that risk. There's better value in other things.

 

[Prochard123]

Rarely unless it's in a multi. They don't interest me that much especially for Brownlows...there's always upsets when dealing with umpires. I'd rather just not bet and watch the $1.30 pop win rather than take that risk. There's better value in other things.

Yeah maybe just do some research on probabilities and statistics, a $1.30 pop with 99% probability would be a god send

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yeah maybe just do some research on probabilities and statistics, a $1.30 pop with 99% probability would be a god send

I'd rather take some value, honestly $1.30 pops bore me. I'll have a 5-7 legger where I'll have a few of those but purely single bets I honestly don't do it. I rarely did it for Winx let alone a Brownlow Medal!

 

[NonPhixion]

Not a fan of this negative energy. Come on lads it’s finals. What trains are we lining up for ? Im hearing whispers of Butler & Baker and I don’t mind it. Anyone brave enough to get behind the De Goey train again? Kicked 5 last time against Geelong and they had no answer for him

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Not a fan of this negative energy. Come on lads it’s finals. What trains are we lining up for ? Im hearing whispers of Butler & Baker and I don’t mind it. Anyone brave enough to get behind the De Goey train again? Kicked 5 last time against Geelong and they had no answer for him

Hawkins one for me 3+ for me

Also going to back Castagna 1 and 2+

 

[GROTTO]

Not a fan of this negative energy. Come on lads it’s finals. What trains are we lining up for ? Im hearing whispers of Butler & Baker and I don’t mind it. Anyone brave enough to get behind the De Goey train again? Kicked 5 last time against Geelong and they had no answer for him

I will be open and call myself out here for engaging when I should have kept my opinions to myself and apologies to the board, my bad here.

I have missed the trains and melts on here. I am excited that BloodRet is on the Lynch and Butler train. Cant wait for his posts at around 9pm tonight.

We are in for a ride tonight lol.

 

[GROTTO]

Hawkins one for me 3+ for me

Also going to back Castagna 1 and 2+

Ther biggest problem Hawkins had last week was where he was taking his shots at goal, tough angles at a fair distance out. There was also one awful snap where he played on instead of taking his time to settle and kick straight.

0.5 v Power, Im happy to think he will kick better and straighter this week if given 5 shots at goal

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Ther biggest problem Hawkins had last week was where he was taking his shots at goal, tough angles at a fair distance out. There was also one awful snap where he played on instead of taking his time to settle and kick straight.

0.5 v Power, Im happy to think he will kick better and straighter this week if given 5 shots at goal

Even if he gets 3 pretty sure he'll nail at least 2, happy to punt on 3+, last week was very unusual he's normally a great set shot.

 

[GROTTO]

Even if he gets 3 pretty sure he'll nail at least 2, happy to punt on 3+, last week was very unusual he's normally a great set shot.

Kicking at ~63% which is well above AFL average for accuracy in 2020 before the Final.

5 shots/chances at goal with his season average would get him around 3+