AFL 2020 - AFL Grand Final (no aftertiming allowed)

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Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,468
1,437
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Pointsbet offering O/U for marks, clearances, tackles, and inside 50's
Looking at Goal Assists on PB
Danger ave 1.15/game (12/20) , Hawk ave 1.15/game (13/19), Ablett ave 1.09/game (8/11)
Ablett playing mostly hf and has a nice kick, so i like him to hit a player on the chest.
1u Ablett to get a goal assist @1.70 pb

Richmond stats show lynch and dusty arent so reliable at goal assists.
(also both danger and dusty ave over 5.2 inside50's/game if you like them for O4.5 inside 50's. @~1.60ish)
&
1u bolton 2g+ @7 lads - convinced myself this is value if rich get on top of geelong and bolton plays fwd again.
0.5u more added to bolton ags @1.85 lads
 
Last edited:

Jimmy69r

Debutant
May 8, 2016
66
32
AFL Club
West Coast
Have a feeling Geelong will win this - they will be even more motivated than Richmond to win, to send Gaza off on a high! It will all be about him and his family and the team will lift for this. 5years trying to make the GF, they will be highly motivated. Other sign is the odds, 2.10 for Geelong. I mean why are Richmond not shorter odds? Is it the Gabba factor. I cant believe Richmond is not 1.40.

Every team lately at 2.10 has been winning. The big boys will come in on Friday/ Saturday and hammer Geelongs odds down to 2.00 or maybe even 1.90. This year 2020 has been one of those years, lebron doing it for Kobe, so can see the Cats winning for good old Jiblets.

Having said that - I have gone big on Richmond and unders. But got a feeling it will be Cats that get up in a low scoring slog.
 

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The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
7,906
17,020
AFL Club
St Kilda
Menegola averages 0.7 goals a game across his career its not like hes a one in a million chance for a goal off a back pocket yet he's the 3rd highest quoted price in the market, that's overs whatever way you want to spin it.
I personally prefer Myers @ $2.85 AGS ahead of menegola, but 3.50 for him is decent.

I call this one "close, low scoring GF where duncan racks them up and myers kicks a snag"

Same Game Multi (5 Legs) @ 92.59

Richmond vs Geelong Cats

Over 88.5 - Fixed Win (Alternate Total Points Over)

Under 123.5 - Fixed Win (Alternate Total Points Under)

Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats) - Fixed Win (Player Goals - Anytime Goal Kicker)

Mitchell Duncan (Geelong Cats) - Fixed Win (Most Disposals - Group A)

Either Team To Win By Less Than 15.5 Points - Fixed Win (Tribet 1-15)
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,183
5,351
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Top sport have some very interesting prop markets
Martin to give away 1 or more free kicks & Richmond win $2.40
Martin to receive 1 or more free kicks & Richmond win $3.05.
I’m waiting for a clearer weather forecast, if it rains I’m just smashing every players tackle overs
 

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rwandandream

Rookie
Sep 23, 2018
34
39
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Looking at Goal Assists on PB
Danger ave 1.15/game (12/20) , Hawk ave 1.15/game (13/19), Ablett ave 1.09/game (8/11)
Ablett playing mostly hf and has a nice kick, so i like him to hit a player on the chest.
1u Ablett to get a goal assist @1.70 pb

Richmond stats show lynch and dusty arent so reliable at goal assists.
(also both danger and dusty ave over 5.2 inside50's/game if you like them for O4.5 inside 50's. @~1.60ish)
&
1u bolton 2g+ @7 lads - convinced myself this is value if rich get on top of geelong and bolton plays fwd again.
0.5u more added to bolton ags @1.85 lads

Agree with your analysis on Ablett. I'm going to throw a couple units on it. Cheers.
 

LIONS15v

Debutant
Oct 12, 2020
121
98
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Some pre-warning-
If u include selwood 15+ in a sgm i hope you enjoy freaking out till he gets his 15th touch in the last 2 minutes of the game.. o_O last week he was on 0 touches at quarter time and i was thinking my multi was going to be sunk on a ''safe'' 15+ leg . Dont remember how he got 16 as i swear the game said he finished bang on 15 last week. His disposals 2 games before that he got 16, 16, 14, 15, 14. ~bit close
Anyhow, good on you if he comes off! but ill be passing on his 15+.
I'm well aware of his recent record, I do my research before posting/taking bets.

He still got to 15+ in each of his last few games, did he not?

And what are the chances selwood, the captain in a GF against a team conceding the 6th most disposals of any team in 2020, has no/little disposals in the first quarter again? Very, very slim I would say. He has value. And he will be giving it his all in a grand final. He's a champion player, never write them off.
 

kickazz

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 12, 2010
8,641
11,680
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
I got on that too. Scott has been throwing him into the forward line for stints throughout the finals.
Tuohy often seems to get a goal in games we struggle to score in too, so if tigers manage to strangle Geelong's scoring might be still a chance.


grimes good value for top 3 in the normy @ 18. was bog last time vs geelong
If the battle of the coaches boxes goes Hardwick's way, Grimes is in for a big game.

Last time against Geelong he played on a debutant though?
 

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