AFL 2020 - AFL Grand Final (no aftertiming allowed)

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frank99

Rookie
Feb 27, 2016
47
62
AFL Club
Adelaide
Looking for value in the 15+ disposals market to multi on SB. Dangerfield at $1.20 is a monty. Stewart is low risk, Bolton value at $1.67 and I like Ablett to get a bit of midfield time after his big goal from the centre last week @ $1.83. Those 4 go into $4.50, powerplay to $5. Ablett is the risk, may sub for Baker or Short.

Btw how bad are the 'Popular' multi markets on SB?? Disposal markets with 9-10 legs for $6-7, 6 different individual goalscorers for $7 that sort of stuff, high risk no value at all..
Agree with Danger/Stewart, Ablett I think unlikely, but there is a world where he goes big. Crazy stat only one player from each team cracked 20 touches last week (Duncan/Martin)
 

Fat Nyfe

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 18, 2012
6,612
12,954
Melbourne
AFL Club
Fremantle
Agree with Danger/Stewart, Ablett I think unlikely, but there is a world where he goes big. Crazy stat only one player from each team cracked 20 touches last week (Duncan/Martin)
I actually agree, I'm going to remove him from those multis but have a separate nibble for Ablett alone - 15+ disposals and 1+ goal @ 3.60.

Other good 15+ options are Cotchin (18, 19, 17 leading in) and Selwood (16, 18, 16). Both captains with GF experience who will certainly impose themselves, good form leading in.

In general I'll probably avoid the 20 touches market. Particularly for Richmond it's risky as they can often have games with low disposal counts.
 

LIONS15v

Debutant
Oct 12, 2020
121
98
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Prestia is the only one from Richmond I'd be including for 15+ disposals. Also: duncan, gola, Stewart, danger, selwood 15+. Comes to $3.20 on SB, probably could include a couple of AGS in it as well

Richmond conceded the 6th most disposals of any team in 2020. Geelong conceded the least disposals.
 

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iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
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As long as Houli doesn't pick up 20 2nd half disposals so people can't claim "he deserved it" and Dusty didn't, I'm not going to be as annoyed as last year. Houli had 5 or 6 "real" (not including kick outs) first half disposals last year and people still claimed media bias got Dusty over the line when he was dominant to break the game wide open.
Last year was a bit of a lottery tbh. I was on Prestia - and for the short time the game was in the balance he was easily the best player on the ground. He just completely faded out of it once the game was already dead.
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
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Last year was a bit of a lottery tbh. I was on Prestia - and for the short time the game was in the balance he was easily the best player on the ground. He just completely faded out of it once the game was already dead.
Do we know the NS panel?

IIRC, Bruce and Carey were on it last year.
 

GROTTO

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I thought if he could replicate what he did Saturday night that he would go very close to winning it? Which definitely isn’t unlikely
A few kicks, few marks, a few tackles, a goal would almost get him home if the Cats win.

Unless Danger or Duncan have a massive 30+ day.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
4,684
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Do we know the NS panel?

IIRC, Bruce and Carey were on it last year.
Last years panel: Alistair Lynch, Chris Johnson, Matthew Lloyd, Bruce McAvaney, Angela Pippos. All of them voted for Dusty Martin as the top player in a 3,2,1 voting format.

Houli came 2nd, Pickett came 3rd, Riewoldt 4th and Prestia 5th.
 

Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
862
1,031
AFL Club
Adelaide
I put the tip up here yesterday for Duncan 20+ at Ladbrokes ($1.80). If you do like him at those odds I’d suggest jumping on now. They’ve moved his line to 21.5 ($1.87) but have been lazy and haven’t adjusted him for 20+ yet
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
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if Bruce McAvaney is part of the Norm Smith Panel, and Dustin Martin kicks 3 goals, you can just about bank 3 votes from Bruce.


Can take Dusty Martin to win the Norm Smith medal at $6.00 or take Martin to kick 3+ Goals at $8.

Just throwing it up there.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
4,684
1,858
Auckland, New Zealand
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2017 Voting panel: Terry Wallace, Chris Judd, Daisy Pearce, Jake Niall, Mark McClure

The 2017 Grand Final was a bit more a tighter contest

Dusty Martin 13
Houli 10
Edwards, Prestia, Rance 2
Graham 1

Wallace only gave Martin the 1 vote in 2017

Would be very interested to know who is part of the 2020 NS Panel team. It seems like they vary the panel from year to year.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
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I might lower the bar, in 2017 Martin kicked 2 goals and was Normy. Bruce on the panel + Dusty Martin to bag at least 2 goals or more, he would still come pretty close to snagging 3 votes from Bruce.

Bruce loves him. His favourite player by a mile.
 

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NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
4,684
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Interested to know if the Panel is 4 or 5 for this year. You would imagine with a larger voting panel, the more recognised names will come through. eg Danger, Dusty
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
7,953
17,124
AFL Club
St Kilda
If you willing to cop a minor restriction on winning margin (u39 points), you can still get the desired effect and multi NS with the various tri bet 'either team' options. :thumbsu:
Using the new SB 4-leg any sport multi promo- I've just used this method to have a dabble at a relatively low risk swing at betting on the norm smith, with (in theory) a bonus bet back if my NS bet doesn't get up.

(Note the T&C's for the 4-leg promo stipulate no SGM legs allowed- but tri-bet and NS bet don't register as SGM bets. Also note that the T&C's require 1.10min each leg.)

Example:

20201020_160859.jpg


In theory, the other 3 are safe as houses, meaning nice odds on dusty for NS and bonus bet back if he doesn't get up.
 

md20

Debutant
Apr 24, 2020
143
145
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Yep on it. I mentioned it this morning but all good. Atleast it didn't get missed for others to get on
My bad mate! Should have made more of an effort to scroll back. And should have known you had already spotted that value.

Also like Menegola AGS - $3.50 (Lads)
Has kicked 14.5 for the year. Never stops running and plays that attacking wing role.
(Priced as low as $2.10 on PB)


On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
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ShaunWDT

Club Legend
Nov 18, 2013
2,582
4,262
AFL Club
Geelong
My bad mate! Should have made more of an effort to scroll back. And should have known you had already spotted that value.

Also like Menegola AGS - $3.50 (Lads)
Has kicked 14.5 for year. Never stops running and plays that attacking wing role.
(Priced as low as $2.10 on PB)


On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Surely Lads f’ed this up? Bet of the year.
Even Duncan is overs, regularly kicks goals.
 
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squeaky1000

Senior List
Apr 30, 2018
257
328
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Surely Lads f’ed this up? Bet of the year.
Even Duncan is overs, regularly kicks goals.
Cats kicked 1 goal in three quarters last time they played the tigers. Not saying that will happen again but don't think their wingers and mids will be strolling in and kicking easy goals like they have against the weaker teams this year
 

ShaunWDT

Club Legend
Nov 18, 2013
2,582
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Geelong
Cats kicked 1 goal in three quarters last time they played the tigers. Not saying that will happen again but don't think their wingers and mids will be strolling in and kicking easy goals like they have against the weaker teams this year
Menegola averages 0.7 goals a game across his career its not like hes a one in a million chance for a goal off a back pocket yet he's the 3rd highest quoted price in the market, that's overs whatever way you want to spin it.
 
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Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,468
1,437
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Prestia is the only one from Richmond I'd be including for 15+ disposals. Also: duncan, gola, Stewart, danger, selwood 15+. Comes to $3.20 on SB, probably could include a couple of AGS in it as well

Richmond conceded the 6th most disposals of any team in 2020. Geelong conceded the least disposals.
Some pre-warning-
If u include selwood 15+ in a sgm i hope you enjoy freaking out till he gets his 15th touch in the last 2 minutes of the game.. o_O last week he was on 0 touches at quarter time and i was thinking my multi was going to be sunk on a ''safe'' 15+ leg . Dont remember how he got 16 as i swear the game said he finished bang on 15 last week. His disposals 2 games before that he got 16, 16, 14, 15, 14. ~bit close
Anyhow, good on you if he comes off! but ill be passing on his 15+.
 
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