Preview 2020 AFL National Draft thread

[King Corey]

Spoiler: Lore's 2020 Draft Order

 

[Passmore]

Adelaide @ 1 take Thilthorpe

With the reduction in points value from 1 to 2, do we still bid on JUH at 2?

If we rate him there we’d have to.

 

[New_Roo]

You'll notice i said 'IF' we get Band 1 compensation for Crouch.

Absolute zero chance.... not a damaging player and now add injury prone and 27 start of the ssn.... given the paper said he was on what 675k already I can't even see another team paying that for him let alone towards the 800-1m mark.... which guessing what you need to get the band 1.... reckon you can keep him!


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[Snake_Baker]

@ Experts .. Whose the next best mid after Philips?

You are summoning up Satan by framing it in that manner.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Absolute zero chance.... not a damaging player and now add injury prone and 27 start of the ssn.... given the paper said he was on what 675k already I can't even see another team paying that for him let alone towards the 800-1m mark.... which guessing what you need to get the band 1.... reckon you can keep him!


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OK Nostradamus!

 

[New_Roo]

OK Nostradamus!

Just being realistic


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[Snake_Baker]

Just remember that the Crows got GWS' 2020 1st rd draft pick last year for simply moving from Pick 4 to Pick 6 in the 2019 Draft so that GWS could try and move ahead of Green being nominated... (although that pick was/is anticipated to fall in the mid teens this year)

Anything less than that would draw the attention of the AFL for Draft tampering, even more so as the picks are higher value (IF the Crows get Band 1 compensation for Crouch).

My guess is that we'll select Thilthorpe with Pick 1, keep the Bulldogs honest and select JUH with pick 2, then select Phillips with pick 3. I think there is still some bad blood between the list managers of Crows/Bulldogs over the Keath trade.
We will have to meet bids on Edwards (F/S) and Tarek Newchurch (NGA), whilst also potentially picking up Borlase (NGA). My guess is that we'll try to move the GWS 1st into next year perhaps, i just don't see us taking 6 players this year, and next years Draft looks excellent.

Come again mate?

Pick 1, 2 AND 3?

 

[Mjs94]

Come again mate?

Pick 1, 2 AND 3?

Pick 1 (for finishing last)
Pick 2 for Crouch compo (won't happen)

Bid pick 2 on JUH, dogs match, pick 2 becomes pick 3. So only two picks but as I said, won't happen. Don't worry we'll still have a crack at your man crush although we should probably go Hollands.

 

[King Corey]

Come again mate?

Pick 1, 2 AND 3?

Think they means dogs would have to swing in to match at pick 2 moving crows to pick 3.

 

[King Corey]

Pick 1 (for finishing last)
Pick 2 for Crouch compo (won't happen)

Bid pick 2 on JUH, dogs match, pick 2 becomes pick 3. So only two picks but as I said, won't happen. Don't worry we'll still have a crack at your man crush although we should probably go Hollands.

Snap

 

[Snake_Baker]

Pick 1 (for finishing last)
Pick 2 for Crouch compo (won't happen)

Bid pick 2 on JUH, dogs match, pick 2 becomes pick 3. So only two picks but as I said, won't happen. Don't worry we'll still have a crack at your man crush although we should probably go Hollands.

Cheers.

Crouch compo might happen if it gets him to the club that needs him, but the hammy hasn't helped them OR him.

The Crows have always bidded honestly, and I expect them to be consistent. I'm assuming that the Bulldogs points for this season will be wiped out.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I'm actually hoping that we can get some trades done with uncontracted players to move our picks ~ 57 & 62 up closer to the 2nd round.

I'm probably just dreaming.

 

[Mjs94]

Cheers.

Crouch compo might happen if it gets him to the club that needs him, but the hammy hasn't helped them OR him.

The Crows have always bidded honestly, and I expect them to be consistent. I'm assuming that the Bulldogs points for this season will be wiped out.

Be a stupid club to offer him a Band 1 worthy contract I reckon. He is at best a 2nd banana in a decent midfield. Agree re the Crows and if they don't picks 2 or 3 should be bidding.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Be a stupid club to offer him a Band 1 worthy contract I reckon. He is at best a 2nd banana in a decent midfield. Agree re the Crows and if they don't picks 2 or 3 should be bidding.

2nd banana in a decent midfield is nothing to scoff at mate.

I am aware of his strengths & limitations, and as usual for this place, the discussion eventually moves in to the realm of absurdity.

He'd make our current and foreseeable best 22, and that's all there is to it.

 

[Mjs94]

2nd banana in a decent midfield is nothing to scoff at mate.

I am aware of his strengths & limitations, and as usual for this place, the discussion eventually moves in to the realm of absurdity.

He'd make our current and foreseeable best 22, and that's all there is to it.

Agree and am definitely not saying he won't attract suitors, but to get band 1 the offer would need to be $800k or so? For 4-5 years? Can't see many teams offering that. Band 2 which is end of first round seems fair to me.

 

[Pykie]

He isn't getting Band 1 compo.

I'm doing this exercise for the last time.

To get Band 1 you have to be paid in the top 5% of the league, then they add points for your age etc to every player.

If you finish in the top 37, you are Band 1.

Mr #37 =



Players older than Crouch in the top 37.

Heppell.
Walker
Cotchin
Riewoldt
Gray
Boak
Pendlebury
Franklin.

Which means he would have to be ranked 48th on the assumption that he would overtake everyone on that list after re-ranking (Not a chance in hell vs Franklin etc, but we will do the exercise as a best case scenario for Adelaide) and nobody below his pay packet overtakes him in points for being younger.

Mr #48 =





Which means he has to get offered $700-$750k to get Band 1 compo on the assumption his re-ranking would overtake every single person older than him in the top 37 paid players in the league so he ranks in the top 5%.

This is also on the assumption players much younger than him on less coin (i.e Taranto etc) don't overtake him in the ranking points with their lower age, which is completely possible.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Agree and am definitely not saying he won't attract suitors, but to get band 1 the offer would need to be $800k or so? For 4-5 years? Can't see many teams offering that. Band 2 which is end of first round seems fair to me.

I think he needs to be in the top 5% of earners over 25 years old or essentially the top 20-ish in the league. That would be an extraordinarily bold offer to give that to Crouch.

 

[King Corey]

I think he needs to be in the top 5% of earners over 25 years old or essentially the top 20-ish in the league. That would be an extraordinarily bold offer to give that to Crouch.

Pykie is the total offer used for the assessment or does year 1 have a higher weighting?

 

[giantroo]

Pykie is the total offer used for the assessment or does year 1 have a higher weighting?

Total offer

 

[LB2Snake]

I'm doing this exercise for the last time.

 

[shinboner magic]

I'm not convinced we are right out of it, as bad as we look now. We are close to having the ingredients.

Tarrant a gun KPD, Walker very capable and McKay hitting his straps.

Tagger taking scalps every week in McDonald.

One of the best contested ball players in the comp in Ben Cunnington. Higgins another A Grader. Jy Simpkin was in most AA teams until the past couple of weeks. Two capable wingers in Polec and Dumont.

We have a FF who has kicked the most goals in the comp over three years who needs to find their former touch. Larkey is coming on and is showing he can potentially be every bit as good as Brown.

Goldstein is in great form, still.

As far as 'formulas' go, I can see this turning around very quickly. That's 3 A grade mids, a dominant ruck, an A grade full back and an A grade FF.

LDU takes the next step, or we bring in a gun mid, Brown finds his touch again, and CZ, Tarryn, Bailey, Hayden all come on a little further and we are right back in it IMO.

West Coast had a year where they bottomed out then rocketed straight back up. I wouldn't put that out of the realms of possibility.

It all depends on Cunnington's health and Ben Brown as to which direction our future takes.

Don’t try to get me excited dude - to many false dawns over the last 20 yrs.

 

[Themanbun]

Don’t try to get me excited dude - to many false dawns over the last 20 yrs.

All counts for nought if the game plan is crud and players don't bring energy on game day. But as long as we have Goldy, Tarrant, Cunnington, Higgins and Brown we won't be able to shake the feeling the feeling that maybe we should have a full on crack at it in the short-term. Whether that bears fruit or not, who knows.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

If Brad Crouch is rated the same as Lance Franklin, then the system is completely contrived.

Having said that, James Frawley was Band 1 and he’s a supe....nevermind.

 

[Pykie]

Total offer

No actually, they are ranked by $$ / per year.


$10m over 10 years is ranked lower than $3m over 2 years.

But you are right in the sense of front or back ending can't manipulate it.


The compo can definitely be manipulated with smaller duration, larger $ contracts, with trigger clauses etc. though.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Paul Connors might be finally getting put in his box:

AFLPA investigating draft camp featuring top 2020 and 2021 prospects

Sammy Edmund with the latest news.

www.sen.com.au

 

[The acurate one]

I'm actually hoping that we can get some trades done with uncontracted players to move our picks ~ 57 & 62 up closer to the 2nd round.

I'm probably just dreaming.

We should try and get our hands on the Dogs first rounder. They won't want it.