AFL 2020 - AFL Round 12 (no aftertiming allowed)

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Geeves Train

All Australian
Mar 24, 2008
601
692
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Don’t mind a bit of Lachie Fogarty on Sbet at $2.37 (15+) $6.00 (20+). Had 23 in his last game (albeit vs Roos) but his heat map looked good and he had 31 CBA. No Jack Steven means he “could” fill this role although I also expect Danger plays much more mid tonight. The other “in” in Simpson won’t attend any centre bounces. Think the 15+ is a great chance and $6.00 20+ is value!!
 

Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
9,884
5,405
London, UK
AFL Club
West Coast
32E30BCC-72D9-4884-BDE5-5E6372D142CD.jpeg
 
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Oct 6, 2011
32,374
9,813
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Port Adelaide are 9-2 in 2nd halves in 2020. With their 2 losses in the 2nd halves being by margins of 2 points to Brisbane and 26 points to the Saints- all teams in top 8. Cats too have been powerful in 2nd halves with an 8-3 record in 2020. Cats losses in 2nd halves have been by margins of: 19 pts (Giants), 3 pts (Pies) & 25 pts (WCE)- all teams currently in top 8.

Averages this season by Halves:

Port Adelaide average in 1st Halves: 39.91 pts
Port Adelaide average in 2nd Halves: 32.36 pts

Geelong average in 1st Halves: 42.91 pts
Geelong Average in 2nd Halves: 31.55 pts

Interesting to note both teams drop off in scoring significantly after half time.

It indicates to me these teams have strong fitness, to have such great records in the 2nd halves. Scoring at around 30+ points in 2nd halves with these shorter quarters shouldn't be looked down on, they are still quite high scoring figures for matches.
 

Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
9,884
5,405
London, UK
AFL Club
West Coast
Don’t mind a bit of Lachie Fogarty on Sbet at $2.37 (15+) $6.00 (20+). Had 23 in his last game (albeit vs Roos) but his heat map looked good and he had 31 CBA. No Jack Steven means he “could” fill this role although I also expect Danger plays much more mid tonight
Also don’t mind this. Not overly confident given history, especially his game against West Coast but $6 is relatively long odds especially with Steven out. Hopefully managed last week in preparation for a big crack in the midfield tonight

8668B740-ACC5-49FE-B587-E207A95FD24C.jpeg
 
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Hellboy101

Senior List
Apr 16, 2008
227
229
Canberra
AFL Club
Melbourne
Good risk free opportunity tonight.
Back cats to win at pointsbet @$2. Pay out if in front at HT.
Back Port at beteasy @$1.88 with double winnings for $25.
Worst case break even if cats win. If Port win $304 return.
Cats/ Port HT/FT double collect on both.

SGM: Guthrie under 22.5, Houston under 17.5
Fogarty 15+@8.9 powered
 
Oct 6, 2011
32,374
9,813
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
It's an 8 point game but Geelong , if they aim for a 5+ goal margin win, could potentially overtake Port on percentage, so if it gets deep in the game, Geelong won't want to take the foot off the pedal. But first things first, they will aim for the win and then assess the situation as the game goes on.
 
Jun 18, 2013
505
540
AFL Club
Adelaide
Crows vs Dogs

-Wallace 2+Goals @$2.20 looks alright
-Bruce 2+ @2.10 (he’s due)also looks good.

I think with Doedee out and assuming Talia goes to Naughton Bruce may even snag a few. With the dogs Midfield clearly superior to the crows there should be a lot of ball coming in Dogs forward 50.
 

SuperSteele22

Premiership Player
Nov 6, 2011
3,339
8,976
AFL Club
Collingwood
Sportsbet Special:

4 or more goals to be scored in each quarter , paying $7
Looks appealing but without looking at recent scores I doubt this would have happened in many games at all this year. Staying away
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
2,456
2,795
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
It's an 8 point game but Geelong , if they aim for a 5+ goal margin win, could potentially overtake Port on percentage, so if it gets deep in the game, Geelong won't want to take the foot off the pedal. But first things first, they will aim for the win and then assess the situation as the game goes on.
I have no doubt anyone at Geel is thinking of percentages. In this unusual season with brutal schedules teams will be looking at getting a win first and managing tired players second. They might start looking at percentage, but much later in the season.
 

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Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
9,884
5,405
London, UK
AFL Club
West Coast
It's an 8 point game but Geelong , if they aim for a 5+ goal margin win, could potentially overtake Port on percentage, so if it gets deep in the game, Geelong won't want to take the foot off the pedal. But first things first, they will aim for the win and then assess the situation as the game goes on.
Still too early to think about % if you're playing a top team IMO. Perhaps a cellar dweller but all Geelong will be thinking about, even if 5 goals ahead, is simply winning
 
Oct 6, 2011
32,374
9,813
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Don’t mind a bit of Lachie Fogarty on Sbet at $2.37 (15+) $6.00 (20+). Had 23 in his last game (albeit vs Roos) but his heat map looked good and he had 31 CBA. No Jack Steven means he “could” fill this role although I also expect Danger plays much more mid tonight. The other “in” in Simpson won’t attend any centre bounces. Think the 15+ is a great chance and $6.00 20+ is value!!

Ive been a bit of a jinx on disposals this season but I’m tailing you here. But the saying “winning form is good form.”
 

AP3XS

Debutant
Apr 2, 2015
111
86
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Well I was going to take it easy tonight and just bet a couple units but stuff it - I'm on for 5u again tonight! As long as Port win by at least 5 I'll come out ahead no matter which players kick goals.

2u @ $2.00 - Port -4.5 (Lads)
0.5u @ $1.88 - Port Win (BE Double payout so effective odds $2.76)
0.3 u @ $5.00 - Dixon one of first 3 goals and Port Win (BE)
0.2u @ $14.00 - Gray one of first 3 goals and Port Win 16+ (BE)

0.5u @ $5.66 - Gray, Miers, Motlop AGS
0.5u @ $5.45 - Gray, Miers, Woodcock AGS
0.4u @ $15.25 - Gray 2+, Miers 2+
0.2u @ $34.00 - Gray 2+, Miers 2+, Woodcock AGS
0.2u @ $37.00 - Gray 2+, Miers 2+, Motlop AGS
0.1u @ $82.50 - Gray 2+, Miers 2+, Motlop 2+
0.1u @ $111.00 - Gray 2+, Miers 2+, Woodcock 2+
 
Which Adelaide forward matches up on Ryan Gardner? No offence to doggies fans but Gardner is one of the most useless defenders in the league. First game back he conceded 5.1 to Hipwood. Could be a bit of value going with multiple goals to whoever he matches up on.

Don't think you will find many dogs fans that disagree with you, we cringe when he is named. Will be plonking a bit myself on whoever he starts next to, Tex is one of worst forwards in league at moment but will be backing him if on Gardner.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
2,456
2,795
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
1u Port H2H
1u Port -1.5
1u Port H2H 4th and
0.75u Port 13+ 4th

Bit of a danger that Port has a letdown spot after beating Rich, but I can't ignore the brutal schedule here and think Geel drop off the intensity in the last. Hopefully if Geel do win then they still tail off in the last allowing the last bets to get up.
 
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