AFL 2020 - AFL Round 12 (no aftertiming allowed)

[Geeves Train]

Don’t mind a bit of Lachie Fogarty on Sbet at $2.37 (15+) $6.00 (20+). Had 23 in his last game (albeit vs Roos) but his heat map looked good and he had 31 CBA. No Jack Steven means he “could” fill this role although I also expect Danger plays much more mid tonight. The other “in” in Simpson won’t attend any centre bounces. Think the 15+ is a great chance and $6.00 20+ is value!!

 

[NYRB]

Sportsbet Special:

4 or more goals to be scored in each quarter , paying $7

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

 

[NYRB]

Port Adelaide are 9-2 in 2nd halves in 2020. With their 2 losses in the 2nd halves being by margins of 2 points to Brisbane and 26 points to the Saints- all teams in top 8. Cats too have been powerful in 2nd halves with an 8-3 record in 2020. Cats losses in 2nd halves have been by margins of: 19 pts (Giants), 3 pts (Pies) & 25 pts (WCE)- all teams currently in top 8.

Averages this season by Halves:

Port Adelaide average in 1st Halves: 39.91 pts
Port Adelaide average in 2nd Halves: 32.36 pts

Geelong average in 1st Halves: 42.91 pts
Geelong Average in 2nd Halves: 31.55 pts

Interesting to note both teams drop off in scoring significantly after half time.

It indicates to me these teams have strong fitness, to have such great records in the 2nd halves. Scoring at around 30+ points in 2nd halves with these shorter quarters shouldn't be looked down on, they are still quite high scoring figures for matches.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Don’t mind a bit of Lachie Fogarty on Sbet at $2.37 (15+) $6.00 (20+). Had 23 in his last game (albeit vs Roos) but his heat map looked good and he had 31 CBA. No Jack Steven means he “could” fill this role although I also expect Danger plays much more mid tonight

Also don’t mind this. Not overly confident given history, especially his game against West Coast but $6 is relatively long odds especially with Steven out. Hopefully managed last week in preparation for a big crack in the midfield tonight

 

[Hellboy101]

Good risk free opportunity tonight.
Back cats to win at pointsbet @$2. Pay out if in front at HT.
Back Port at beteasy @$1.88 with double winnings for $25.
Worst case break even if cats win. If Port win $304 return.
Cats/ Port HT/FT double collect on both.

SGM: Guthrie under 22.5, Houston under 17.5
Fogarty 15+@8.9 powered

 

[bopper1]

Tuohy AGS $3 on BE earlier
Geelong h2h $2.15 was also good value
PA over 8.5 behinds $2.15.

 

[NYRB]

It's an 8 point game but Geelong , if they aim for a 5+ goal margin win, could potentially overtake Port on percentage, so if it gets deep in the game, Geelong won't want to take the foot off the pedal. But first things first, they will aim for the win and then assess the situation as the game goes on.

 

[anonymous Derik]

Crows vs Dogs

-Wallace 2+Goals @$2.20 looks alright
-Bruce 2+ @2.10 (he’s due)also looks good.

I think with Doedee out and assuming Talia goes to Naughton Bruce may even snag a few. With the dogs Midfield clearly superior to the crows there should be a lot of ball coming in Dogs forward 50.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Danger +20
Menegola +25
Menegola AGS

@$6.50 BE

Same as above with Menegola 2 goals

@$22 BE

 

[thecatattack]

Danger 25+
Menegola AGS
Miers AGS
Motlop AGS

$17.75 boosted on SB

 

[SuperSteele22]

Sportsbet Special:

4 or more goals to be scored in each quarter , paying $7

Looks appealing but without looking at recent scores I doubt this would have happened in many games at all this year. Staying away

 

[mookieb]

It's an 8 point game but Geelong , if they aim for a 5+ goal margin win, could potentially overtake Port on percentage, so if it gets deep in the game, Geelong won't want to take the foot off the pedal. But first things first, they will aim for the win and then assess the situation as the game goes on.

I have no doubt anyone at Geel is thinking of percentages. In this unusual season with brutal schedules teams will be looking at getting a win first and managing tired players second. They might start looking at percentage, but much later in the season.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

It's an 8 point game but Geelong , if they aim for a 5+ goal margin win, could potentially overtake Port on percentage, so if it gets deep in the game, Geelong won't want to take the foot off the pedal. But first things first, they will aim for the win and then assess the situation as the game goes on.

Still too early to think about % if you're playing a top team IMO. Perhaps a cellar dweller but all Geelong will be thinking about, even if 5 goals ahead, is simply winning

 

[NYRB]

Don’t mind a bit of Lachie Fogarty on Sbet at $2.37 (15+) $6.00 (20+). Had 23 in his last game (albeit vs Roos) but his heat map looked good and he had 31 CBA. No Jack Steven means he “could” fill this role although I also expect Danger plays much more mid tonight. The other “in” in Simpson won’t attend any centre bounces. Think the 15+ is a great chance and $6.00 20+ is value!!

Ive been a bit of a jinx on disposals this season but I’m tailing you here. But the saying “winning form is good form.”

 

[tangolikelama]

Robbie Gray spending more time in the middle again - might be worth a shot 20+ @3.50

 

[tangolikelama]

Bit of fun

@108
Danger 25+
Gray 20+
Selwood 15+
Butters 15+
Motlop AGS
Miers AGS
Dixon 2+

 

[AP3XS]

Well I was going to take it easy tonight and just bet a couple units but stuff it - I'm on for 5u again tonight! As long as Port win by at least 5 I'll come out ahead no matter which players kick goals.

2u @ $2.00 - Port -4.5 (Lads)
0.5u @ $1.88 - Port Win (BE Double payout so effective odds $2.76)
0.3 u @ $5.00 - Dixon one of first 3 goals and Port Win (BE)
0.2u @ $14.00 - Gray one of first 3 goals and Port Win 16+ (BE)

0.5u @ $5.66 - Gray, Miers, Motlop AGS
0.5u @ $5.45 - Gray, Miers, Woodcock AGS
0.4u @ $15.25 - Gray 2+, Miers 2+
0.2u @ $34.00 - Gray 2+, Miers 2+, Woodcock AGS
0.2u @ $37.00 - Gray 2+, Miers 2+, Motlop AGS
0.1u @ $82.50 - Gray 2+, Miers 2+, Motlop 2+
0.1u @ $111.00 - Gray 2+, Miers 2+, Woodcock 2+

 

[tangolikelama]

@15

Gray 15+
DBJ 15+
Stewart 15+
Danger 20+
Woodcock AGS
Miers AGS

 

[offtherails9]

Robbie Gray spending more time in the middle again - might be worth a shot 20+ @3.50

Where was this said?

 

[Zook]

What bookie is this with?

View attachment 935163

 

[StringyDog]

Which Adelaide forward matches up on Ryan Gardner? No offence to doggies fans but Gardner is one of the most useless defenders in the league. First game back he conceded 5.1 to Hipwood. Could be a bit of value going with multiple goals to whoever he matches up on.

Don't think you will find many dogs fans that disagree with you, we cringe when he is named. Will be plonking a bit myself on whoever he starts next to, Tex is one of worst forwards in league at moment but will be backing him if on Gardner.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

What bookie is this with?

Sportsbet

 

[Mazza1234678]

4 day break for Geelong will be the difference

port at 1.9 look a good bet in my book

 

[mookieb]

1u Port H2H
1u Port -1.5
1u Port H2H 4th and
0.75u Port 13+ 4th

Bit of a danger that Port has a letdown spot after beating Rich, but I can't ignore the brutal schedule here and think Geel drop off the intensity in the last. Hopefully if Geel do win then they still tail off in the last allowing the last bets to get up.