AFL 2020 - AFL Round 16 (no aftertiming allowed)

[Bazza97]

Bets for first game tomorrow

Stengle $1.80 b365
McAdam $2.05 BE
McAdam 2+ $6.75 BE
Hill AGS $1.85 TAB
Greene 2+ $2.75 NEDS
Langdon AGS $2.60 TAB
Cameron AGS, Greene AGS & Himmelberg AGS $2.55 BE

 

[Bazza97]

Also on the Riccardi train again, got him for 2+ $2.05 NEDS

 

[Robo87]

anyone like adelaides line? 4 changes for GWS, i think crows can atleast be competitive like their last 2 weeks? (even if they still lose)
1u adel +18.5 @2 lads

yes, still also riding that Riccardi train until it comes to an end- hes still yet to kick anything less than 2.1 in a game. has a great footy sense.
1u riccardi 2g+ @2.05 lads
0.5 riccardi 3g+ @4.25 lads

 

[LukeParkerno1]

anyone like adelaides line? 4 changes for GWS, i think crows can atleast be competitive like their last 2 weeks? (even if they still lose)
1u adel +18.5 @2 lads

yes, still also riding that Riccardi train until it comes to an end- hes still yet to kick anything less than 2.1 in a game. has a great footy sense.
1u riccardi 2g+ @2.05 lads
0.5 riccardi 3g+ @4.25 lads

GWS haven't smashed teams all year, would like the line in the 20's more though. Think it's about right at the moment. Not a line I particularly like this round.

Riccardi train for me and Cameron.

Going to also have something on Coniglio for 1 and 2+ goals. Do think if it gets comfortable he's one they can "rest forward"

 

[Jimmy69r]

Who was the dead set hero who declared Melbourne a top 4 lock for the next 5 years after they fluked their way to that prelim a couple of season ago?

Yes I remember the tool... he had the picture of the godfather. He actually predicted Melbourne wins the next 3-4 grand finals. I think he is still here and changed his profile / name due to the embarrassment

 

[squeaky1000]

Reilly O'Brien 15+ $1.92 lads
Had 19 last game, Jacobs is a dead set dud and he should be able to give him a nice run around.

 

[NonPhixion]

All over Toby Greene tonight. 3U -2+ $2.60 TAB
5+ $81 - ladbrokes looks like the bet of the year if I could get on more than 25 cents on it. No match-up for him, and unlike Stephenson leaves his extra-curricular activities at home so his head is in the game.

 

[Del125763]

Think with it being a day game (or twilight game), that will favour the Giants. Crows have shown themselves to be competitive even against the better teams especially in 1st halves. There seems to be a general trend this year, teams with more to play for, tend to choke. Fitness wise , I expect the Giants to run out the better in the 2nd half.

I can't tune into both games today, so I'll tune into the Blues v Swans game. Reckon Swans at above evens is a great play.

I can't watch both matches today, as I have work.

 

[dontlimitme]

$70 Ricardi 2+/Mckay 2+ @ 4.10 LADS
$30 Ricardi 3+/Mckay 3+ @ 18.06 LADS

 

[NonPhixion]

Think with it being a day game (or twilight game), that will favour the Giants. Crows have shown themselves to be competitive even against the better teams especially in 1st halves. There seems to be a general trend this year, teams with more to play for, tend to choke. Fitness wise , I expect the Giants to run out the better in the 2nd half.

I can't tune into both games today, so I'll tune into the Blues v Swans game. Reckon Swans at above evens is a great play.

I can't watch both matches today, as I have work.

please never change NYRB

 

[sneak]

Chance of wet and windy tonight
Frem h2h @2.80 1u
Frem +10.5 @1.96 2u
Also under 104.5 @1.90 2u

Don’t you hate it when you know exactly what’s going to happen but don’t have the guts to go real big on something lol

 

[Geeves Train]

All over Toby Greene tonight. 3U -2+ $2.60 TAB
5+ $81 - ladbrokes looks like the bet of the year if I could get on more than 25 cents on it. No match-up for him, and unlike Stephenson leaves his extra-curricular activities at home so his head is in the game.

Careful this bet. He had much more time in the centre last round with no Kelly, Ward, etc. Not saying he can’t but I just wouldn’t expect him forward for the full game and seems like GWS happy to play Riccardi FF all day long

 

[NonPhixion]

Careful this bet. He had much more time in the centre last round with no Kelly, Ward, etc. Not saying he can’t but I just wouldn’t expect him forward for the full game and seems like GWS happy to play Riccardi FF all day long

ye he did push up the ground a lot. But I don’t think it was because he was playing in the midfield, I could be wrong but I don’t think he attended many CBA’s last week. Just played high HF. This week I think he will be isolated more i50, but it is Leon Cameron so who really knows.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Hey guys was it Adelaide who give up big disposal numbers to inside mids??

 

[Del125763]

Hey guys was it Adelaide who give up big disposal numbers to inside mids??

Crows ranked last in the comp for Disposal averages as a team. Ranked 2nd last for average conceded disposals.


I think its a fitness thing with Adelaide, can see the GWS hard runners like a Whitfield, Taranto posting big numbers.

 

[5 Bucks]

Hey guys was it Adelaide who give up big disposal numbers to inside mids??

They were playing without Sloane and B Crouch for a big chunk of the season and they're a much tighter unit with those two around the ball.

 

[Johanpetro]

ye he did push up the ground a lot. But I don’t think it was because he was playing in the midfield, I could be wrong but I don’t think he attended many CBA’s last week. Just played high HF. This week I think he will be isolated more i50, but it is Leon Cameron so who really knows.

there’s his heat map from last week. 52% of posessions in the forward half. Still had 3 shots goal though and hopefully stays forward tonight, good value to kick a few I reckon

 

[Bazza97]

Bets for 2nd game today

Cuningham AGS $2.20 Unibet
Martin AGS $1.70 PointsBet
Martin 2+ $3.75 TAB
Fisher AGS $1.91 b365
McKay AGS, Martin AGS & Papley AGS $2.91 NEDS
Papley 2+ $2.35 NEDS
Taylor $2.30 b365
Hayward $2.75 NEDS
Dawson $3.25 Unibet

 

[LukeParkerno1]

there’s his heat map from last week. 52% of posessions in the forward half. Still had 3 shots goal though and hopefully stays forward tonight, good value to kick a few I reckon

That is IF he stays forward. I'm on for 1&2 only, just think it's the safer play. However it probably depends on game situation. If they start winning early you would assume players that are important like Greene and Coniglio for instance go forward.

I'm taking a chance on Caldwell 20+ and also Coniglio 1 and 2+

This is PURELY because I expect the game to be over early and these young mids will run through the middle. Coniglio has kicked goals before

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Bets for 2nd game today

Cuningham AGS $2.20 Unibet
Martin AGS $1.70 PointsBet
Martin 2+ $3.75 TAB
Fisher AGS $1.91 b365
McKay AGS, Martin AGS & Papley AGS $2.91 NEDS
Papley 2+ $2.35 NEDS
Taylor $2.30 b365
Hayward $2.75 NEDS
Dawson $3.25 Unibet

Really like the Dawson one, traders haven't woken up there yet. Following there.

 

[Bazza97]

there’s his heat map from last week. 52% of posessions in the forward half. Still had 3 shots goal though and hopefully stays forward tonight, good value to kick a few I reckon

Agreed, I've got him for 2+ $2.75 on NEDS. He should've kicked at least 2+ last game, I remember he fluffed a very good chance to kick his 2nd when he had the ball in a lot of space I50. Would normally finish those chances. Got a good opportunity to kick at least 2+ tonight which he hasn't done since round 8.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Agreed, I've got him for 2+ $2.75 on NEDS. He should've kicked at least 2+ last game, I remember he fluffed a very good chance to kick his 2nd when he had the ball in a lot of space I50. Would normally finish those chances. Got a good opportunity to kick at least 2+ tonight which he hasn't done since round 8.

For your bet, hope that GWS smack them early too.

They won't play Greene mid any more than they have to this week imo, the bigger match for their season is next week against Melbourne.

 

[Bazza97]

Really like the Dawson one, traders haven't woken up there yet. Following there.

Yep love the value, worth a nibble

 

[Geeves Train]

there’s his heat map from last week. 52% of posessions in the forward half. Still had 3 shots goal though and hopefully stays forward tonight, good value to kick a few I reckon

Last 3 rounds 25%, 42% and 67% CBA, going up each round and most prior was 5%. He could play the Fyfe role and attend CBA then push straight into forwards, guess my point is that it may not be the bet you think it is going to be.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yep love the value, worth a nibble

He always has a few long shots just have to hope he kicks one of them