AFL 2020 - AFL Round 18 (no aftertiming allowed)

[Gift]

Odds seem right to me. Port are better rested since theyve had 9 days break vs Pies 7 days.

Pies played at the Gabba last week so will be more familiar with the dewy conditions.

 

[Gift]

Just wouldnt surprise me to see Port play for a half a game of footy. Could be totally wrong here

This makes no sense to me. Its always been better mentally to try and win than give up and lose going into finals, especially since they get no benefit from only trying in a half.

 

[GROTTO]

This makes no sense to me. Its always been better mentally to try and win than give up and lose going into finals, especially since they get no benefit from only trying in a half.

Did you see the Cats play today?

They played half a game of footy against the Swans and won. They were not switched on and took it easy and did enough to get over a bottom 8 team.

I would be surprised if Port threw the suitcase at the Pies to win on Monday night. Its an opinion. Im not saying it will happen.

If anything sometimes this discussion thread lacks a meaningful difference of opinion on here.

 

[Del125763]

I'm pretty sure both Pies and Port want to win with both naming strong teams. Its going to come down to who is better on the night rather than who has the extra 1% motivation lol

In matches in Round 22 or last round it is often a motivation and this is factored Into the odds. I can attest to this not only in AFL but other sports. Had Port for instance had the minor premiership wrapped up before this game, I would have doubted they would send a full strength team here.

motivation is a huge factor when betting on AFL . Look also at previous years where teams played for draft picks, teams with nothing to play for , playing for milestones etc

you just get the feeling that a loss for either team won’t hurt them , nor will a win make either team feel better . But I agree with your point about tomorrow both teams will still want to win.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Did you see the Cats play today?

They played half a game of footy against the Swans and won. They were not switched on and took it easy and did enough to get over a bottom 8 team.

I would be surprised if Port threw the suitcase at the Pies to win on Monday night. Its an opinion. Im not saying it will happen.

If anything sometimes this discussion thread lacks a meaningful difference of opinion on here.

Plus if anyone is sort of half sore and it might be a Wines, Boak, etc they may go forward more than be in the guts. This match is a dangerous betting game. I'm feeling 1-24 margin which is safe I know but jeez tipping a winner is a dartboard. I'll take the Pies purely price reasons.

 

[Gift]

Did you see the Cats play today?

They played half a game of footy against the Swans and won. They were not switched on and took it easy and did enough to get over a bottom 8 team.

I would be surprised if Port threw the suitcase at the Pies to win on Monday night. Its an opinion. Im not saying it will happen.

If anything sometimes this discussion thread lacks a meaningful difference of opinion on here.

I watched the whole match and I disagree with you.

Geelong didnt take them for granted.

Swans arent the type of team to lay down late in the season. Geelong had a few matchup issues that Swans took advantage of early with Sinclair smashing Blicavs/Ratugolea in the ruck. Also Dangerfield was playing mostly forward for the game and Parker/Kennedy were shitting on Duncan/Guthrie/Selwood in centre bounces.

It was only when Geelong made some match up changes in defence which stopped Sydney scoring from the 2nd quarter onwards which is why they were able to peg them back slowly but they still got smashed in the midfield.

 

[GROTTO]

Plus if anyone is sort of half sore and it might be a Wines, Boak, etc they may go forward more than be in the guts. This match is a dangerous betting game. I'm feeling 1-24 margin which is safe I know but jeez tipping a winner is a dartboard. I'll take the Pies purely price reasons.

I heard on Fox Footy today that apparently its only like the third time this year the Pies have had all their forwards available, something to that effect.

Yes I agree. Boak resting up forward may happen much like Danger to FF for the Cats.

Im not saying Port cant win or wont win, but rather I can see why the Pies may beat them.

 

[GROTTO]

I watched the whole match and I disagree with you.

Geelong didnt take them for granted.

Swans arent the type of team to lay down late in the season. Geelong had a few matchup issues that Swans took advantage of early with Sinclair smashing Blicavs/Ratugolea in the ruck. Also Dangerfield was playing mostly forward for the game and Parker/Kennedy were shitting on Duncan/Guthrie in centre bounces.

It was only when Geelong made some match up changes in defence which stopped Sydney scoring from the 2nd quarter onwards which is why they were able to peg them back slowly but they still got smashed in the midfield.

I watched the whole match and I disagree with you.

Cats barely tried for most of the match, they never hit top gear. They looked and played lethargically and made many unforced errors.

 

[Del125763]

Did you see the Cats play today?

They played half a game of footy against the Swans and won. They were not switched on and took it easy and did enough to get over a bottom 8 team.

I would be surprised if Port threw the suitcase at the Pies to win on Monday night. Its an opinion. Im not saying it will happen.

If anything sometimes this discussion thread lacks a meaningful difference of opinion on here.

same too for the Eagles game . They switched off for 3 quarters against the Roos before deciding they wanted the win.

but I can think of many sports or examples where teams treat the last round as a chance to just avoid injuries, avoid suspensions and to play a bit more safe.

Does anyone know if the AFL give out any trophies , prizes for finishing as minor premier ? If that’s one thing , then that may sway me to Port Adelaide.

as a personal opinion , in previous seasons from what I have heard prize money of $1.2
Million to win an AFL premiership ( you get prize money for runners up, prelim, semi finals and making an elimination final) , surely there should be some incentive for finishing on top?

 

[Gift]

In matches in Round 22 or last round it is often a motivation and this is factored Into the odds. I can attest to this not only in AFL but other sports. Had Port for instance had the minor premiership wrapped up before this game, I would have doubted they would send a full strength team here.

motivation is a huge factor when betting on AFL . Look also at previous years where teams played for draft picks, teams with nothing to play for , playing for milestones etc

you just get the feeling that a loss for either team won’t hurt them , nor will a win make either team feel better . But I agree with your point about tomorrow both teams will still want to win.

I know but the Collingwood/Port match is a live game imo. Collingwood need to win to avoid finishing 8th and Port need to win for the minor flag and also to prove that they arent pretenders.

We know Port are unproven, it will hurt them mentally if they lose especially if they get smashed. Look at how the media called them out for getting smashed against the Cats

I cant see a reason for Port not to try since they dont fit under any of the reasons you have mentioned.

If Port loses tomorrow its because they arent that good rather than them not trying as hard as they should.

 

[GROTTO]

same too for the Eagles game . They switched off for 3 quarters against the Roos before deciding they wanted the win.

Yes. I didnt want to bring that up. I was told that on here the Eagles would smash the Roos apart. Eagles were lucky they got over the line in the end.

North in fact could have had the game iced at HT, if they kicked straight.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I heard on Fox Footy today that apparently its only like the third time this year the Pies have had all their forwards available, something to that effect.

Yes I agree. Boak resting up forward may happen much like Danger to FF for the Cats.

Im not saying Port cant win or wont win, but rather I can see why the Pies may beat them.

Yep it's why I'm not going to go hunting for value this game, it just has danger signs for a Boak type or whatever going forward and getting stuff all ball.

 

[GROTTO]

Yep it's why I'm not going to go hunting for value this game, it just has danger signs for a Boak type or whatever going forward and getting stuff all ball.

In fact it might even be a game to bet LIVE rather than bet beforehand. Get a feel of whats happening. What Kenny and his H-Men are doing.

 

[Gift]

I watched the whole match and I disagree with you.

Cats barely tried for most of the match, they never hit top gear. They looked and played lethargically and made many unforced errors.

They played a similar lineup with Danger forward like against the Tigers too and got smashed making a lot of errors so from your logic since they didnt hit top gear in that match either they musnt have tried against the Tigers either lol

 

[LukeParkerno1]

In fact it might even be a game to bet LIVE rather than bet beforehand. Get a feel of whats happening. What Kenny and his H-Men are doing.

Going to take something on the Pies 1-24 as that is where the value is right now, but agree on your live bet.

 

[GROTTO]

Going to take something on the Pies 1-24 as that is where the value is right now, but agree on your live bet.

Power have lost to 3 of the top 8 teams so far in 2020.

They beat the Tigers who were hit with injuries, Dogs off a short 3-4 day break and Eagles in QLD who have their measure of them at AO.

I am biased against the Power, but those are the facts. Tomorrow's result wont change my opinion of them.

Week 1 of Finals, will either validate or refute it though.

 

[Gift]

same too for the Eagles game . They switched off for 3 quarters against the Roos before deciding they wanted the win.

Id agree with you if the Eagles actually had their full team in. Literally their whole midfield was out besides Kelly. I would have been more surprised if they didnt struggle to win. Difference is they have elite class at the top end still playing that gets them over the line in the end with Nicnat/Ryan/Gaff/Kelly

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Power have lost to 3 of the top 8 teams so far in 2020.

They beat the Tigers who were hit with injuries, Dogs off a short 3-4 day break and Eagles in QLD who have their measure of them at AO.

I am biased against the Power, but those are the facts. Tomorrow's result wont change my opinion of them.

Week 1 of Finals, will either validate or refute it though.

Put it this way there's no way I' tipping Port week 1 of the finals. Just feel they are a year too early.

 

[mookieb]

Agree, really tough game to gauge

Some exotics might be the way to go. Coll are very good in 1st quarters and poor in 2nd quarters. Port are ok in the 1st and outstanding in the 2nd. Coll / Port / Coll / Coll if you think Coll might win or Coll / Port / Port / Port if you like Port for the win.

 

[mookieb]

In matches in Round 22 or last round it is often a motivation and this is factored Into the odds. I can attest to this not only in AFL but other sports. Had Port for instance had the minor premiership wrapped up before this game, I would have doubted they would send a full strength team here.

motivation is a huge factor when betting on AFL . Look also at previous years where teams played for draft picks, teams with nothing to play for , playing for milestones etc

you just get the feeling that a loss for either team won’t hurt them , nor will a win make either team feel better . But I agree with your point about tomorrow both teams will still want to win.

In last round games motivation and momentum should be the major factors you should be betting on. Bookies don't take that into account and even if they did it can be very difficult successfully trying to determine which teams are motivated or not. If you pick teams successfully it can be a bonanza if you leverage in because their performance is so far from the norm. GC for example has absolutely mailed in the last round 4 years in a row with this year being their "best" performance.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Took Danger for goals for weeks on end and the one time I dont he delivers, betting shits me.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Those high hit % drop drastically when combined from a probabilities perspective.

Combining those hit rates of 86%, 83%, 69% means a probability of under 50%, (roughly 48%) statistically speaking.

Lol. That’s why it’s called a multi...

You’ve called it almost a 50/50 chance of happening inferring the odds should be circa 2 to 1. The fact they’re $3.30 means this bet is paying good odds

Statistically speaking

 

[The_Steadier]

Lol. That’s why it’s called a multi...

You’ve called it almost a 50/50 chance of happening inferring the odds should be circa 2 to 1. The fact they’re $3.30 means this bet is paying good odds

Statistically speaking

I was being generous and normalised the data set for for 13 instances each. ie- extrapolated out pendles and treloars hit % as if they'd done that for 13 games, not 7 or 9 games.
Yes, the real probability is infact well under 48%, but that wasn't really the point I was making.

The original post was pointing at the individual strike rates and saying he couldn't see any one of them not getting up.

I'm merely pointing out that the combination of them all occurring at the same time is far less than simply looking at the individual probabilities in isolation.

 

[Johanpetro]

Stephenson $4 for 2+ goals? Will he play forward? Seems good value

 

[NonPhixion]

Stephenson $4 for 2+ goals? Will he play forward? Seems good value

100% will play forward, don’t know if I trust him this year though. The Glandular fever/no pre season has taken a toll on him imo