AFL 2020 - AFL Round 4

[Del125763]

Total Match points for GWS V Pies. Here is a bit of food for though. Palmerbet and Sportsbet, im assuming they are independent bookmakers, but instead of copying each other odds. Could you offer better odds , considering best odds margin is still around a 21.5% margin. Just some food for thought, for the punters out there.

 

[Del125763]

The average score in the last 9 matches between these two is 170.66. (which equates to 136.53 pts)

131-140 points is paying $6.00 which seems the best bet based on value. Over 70.5 points in the 1st half paying odds of $3.30, which is the better bet, given Collingwood tend to take the foot off the break in 2nd halves.

 

[NonPhixion]

Whitfield 20+, Adams 20+ & Mihocek AGS $3.60

 

[squeaky1000]

SGM Coniglio, Whitfield, Ward, Adams and Crisp 15+ $2
Hopper under 20.5 disp
GWS under 60.5 total points

 

[targett]

 

[targett]

 

[squeaky1000]

Adding Kelly under 21.5 - seems to be playing a half forward role and hasn't looked great so far, yet to have 20 this season
and Coniglio over 20.5 - back in the middle and around the ball a lot more last week for 24, high centre bounce numbers and would be looking to lead from the front

 

[Ohh Ok]

2u Josh Kelly AGS @ $3.50 (neds/lads)
2u Stephen Coniglio AGS @ $3.25 (neds/lads)


Kitchen sink type game tonight, lose and the giants go 1-3 which is quite grim considering it’s a shortened season. GWS mid rotations starting to get busy, Kelly even named in the forward line. These guys will be throwing everything at tonight’s game. We’re even looking at a clear night with no rain/wind.
Kelly 10/18 in 2019, hit the scoreboard 13/19. Hit the scoreboard 12/16 in 2018. Hot scoreboard 2/2 this year but failed to kick a goal.
Coniglio 7/14 in 2019, hit the scoreboard 9/14 and every game this year. 2018 he hit the scoreboard 21/23.

Next best was $2.75 on TAB and BetEasy for Kelly, and $2.25 on Bet365 for Coniglio, so we got a great price here.

 

[NonPhixion]

Over 126.5
Macrae 20+
Libba 15+
Florent 15+
Bont AGS
Papely AGS

Power played to $16

small tip for future ref, I wouldn’t incl total overs in a SGM with AGS, it doesn’t multiply the full amount because of the correlation, you will be losing value.
you can see this difference if you change it to unders

 

[targett]

Adding Kelly under 21.5 - seems to be playing a half forward role and hasn't looked great so far, yet to have 20 this season
and Coniglio over 20.5 - back in the middle and around the ball a lot more last week for 24, high centre bounce numbers and would be looking to lead from the front

Kelly wont be able to play fwd against Collingwood's deep midfield , He is a genuine ball magnet , great user and GWS work through him at any opportunity .
GWS are not playing well however no better chance than on their home deck , losing their last 2 underwhelmingly and playing a side they knocked off in last years PreLim . Expect a bold performance here and Kelly o20 1.8 b365 on pimple stakes is a solid bet for mind .

 

[Ohh Ok]

Who does De Boer tag? Sidebottom or Pendlebury?

Leads me to like Adams overs. Expecting a strong contested match tonight and this leaves space for him to open up and rack up a few. Especially against a GWS midfield that isn’t quite 100%. He’s the pies mid you want to be on tonight.

3u Adams over 20.5 @ $1.77 (lads)

 

[targett]

Who does De Boer tag? Sidebottom or Pendlebury?

Leads me to like Adams overs. Expecting a strong contested match tonight and this leaves space for him to open up and rack up a few. Especially against a GWS midfield that isn’t quite 100%. He’s the pies mid you want to be on tonight.

3u Adams over 20.5 @ $1.77 (lads)

He succeeded on Pendlebury

 

[demon_fanatic]

I thought sidebottom was tagged in the prelim, Total down to 119.5, yes the pies backline is amazing at the moment but it hasn't copped serious heat yet,if GWS show up the scoring could flow enough to send this over on a nice night, is the ground very Dewy up there?

 

[targett]

I thought sidebottom was tagged in the prelim, Total down to 119.5, yes the pies backline is amazing at the moment but it hasn't copped serious heat yet,if GWS show up the scoring could flow enough to send this over on a nice night, is the ground very Dewy up there?

he might of , but not by De Boer

 

[Ohh Ok]

he might of , but not by De Boer

I believe that was the case. My post was intended to be more of a rhetorical question anyways, and allude to the fact that Adams should hopefully be freed up a bit

 

[targett]

I believe that was the case. My post was intended to be more of a rhetorical question anyways, and allude to the fact that Adams should hopefully be freed up a bit

All good , you asked who De boer tagged i was only answering your Q

 

[JuniorWatch]

Noticed a bit of a trend with players performing poorly after a concussion if they don't get the week off.
Small go to test out the theory on
Whitfield u20 $2.15 b365

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Robo87]

Whitfield 20+, Adams 20+ & Mihocek AGS $3.60

i have gone similar,
1u Whitfield 20+, Adams 20+ & Stephenson AGS $4.75

 

[NonPhixion]

small tip for future ref is to not bother multi'ing any of this sh*t because you're all going to get reamed by the book percentage in 5 leg multis.

generally, but multis do have their benefits as Targett has mentioned before & particularly to abuse promos

 

[NonPhixion]

If anyone wants to get funky with me
Coll qtr time line -0.5, Greene 2+ & Cal Brown AGS $16.25

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u Grundy 20+ @ $2.80 (SB)

One last play on tonight’s game. Absolutely juicy this one. Grundy comes up against an unfit/un-match ready Mumford here. He should have a field day here and run him off the park. Last time out Grundy has 25 (20 covid adjusted) and 71 hitouts in wet conditions, and the time before Grundy had 31 (25). Mumford always gives away a few frees and his inclusion leads me to believe that the Giants want to be physical tonight, this = frees for Grundy. Grundy’s fitness and running will find him plenty of the ball tonight against an unfit Mumford.

 

[dontlimitme]

100$ sidebottom more fantasy points than pendles @ 1.85 on unibet. Hopefully pendles gets de boer

 

[JuniorWatch]

Sunday afternoon Gawnporn
o100.5 fantasy $1.88 PB (Comes up against Fort. 123 last week against Pittonet. Has averaged 111.3 in his last 2 seasons)
15+ disposals $2.00 SB (Averages 17 this year. Again, has Fort)

As is tradition here at JWFC we like to put our money on lanky spud AGS markets so here is another one.
T. Xerri AGS $2.65 b365

Edit: SGM@SB Adams 15+, Grundy 15+, Stephenson AGS $2.70

 

[chennef]

Pies over 4.5 goals for the 1st half $2.13 SB

 

[Parko31]

Pies over 4.5 goals for the 1st half $2.13 SB

Last 4 games vs GWS have been 3,3,4,5 goals at HT