balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
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AFL 2020 - AFL Round 5
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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That's why they are 1.65
Hold fire on any early plays.Fixture shake up on way
75 new cases overnight. Vic’s won’t be going anywhere.
- Mar 27, 2018
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Richmond H2H $1.53
Yes please. No way they lose 3 in a row. Melbourne has absolutely no forward structure what so ever. Probably play their total unders
Yes please. No way they lose 3 in a row. Melbourne has absolutely no forward structure what so ever. Probably play their total unders
- Oct 6, 2011
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AFL season highly doubtful to get to the Finals stage if it gets that far. Chances of a grand final based in WA a strong possibility.
I reckon if Eagles were to play Swans this week, Swans will be hugely disadvantaged. Only 6 days notice and Eagles despite their shocking form, have had 3 more weeks based in the QLD hub.
Bulldogs and Dockers look the early value
- Jun 13, 2016
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Wonder how we could take advantage of the almost guaranteed overreaction there will be this weekend to HTB decisions.
HTB ?
I'm thinking total match points overs. Few less repeat stoppages, replaced by more F50 entries. Maybe even a few extra shots as a result of tackles being rewarded.
Not so sure on taking Overs.The story so far is 9 overs and 17 unders since 16 min qtrs where introduced . Letting the game go a bit will IMO only level these numbers out , so no real advantage to be gained . The Unders have gone a total 361.5 points under the closing total at an average of 21.26 points per match which is a fair bit of ground to make up .
- Jun 13, 2016
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holding the ball. Clarko complaining. Gil agreeing etc.
- Oct 6, 2011
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Can you care to explain what you meant by "total 361.5 points"?
Example: closing total match one 132.5 match score 100 = 32.5 under
They are some excellent comparisons of performance for Freo and Ade given they have played the same teams over the last 3 weeks:
Port
Freo -29 / Ade -75
GC
Freo -13 / Ade -53
Bris
Freo -12 / Ade -37 (should have been alot more)
Essentially Ade have been absolutely pounded three games in a row (Bris should have won by 50+) whereas Freo for the most part have been quite competitive. Obviously Fyfe being out hurts alot though.
Additionally Freo are playing at "home" whereas Ade will be travelling for the 3rd week in a row. If this adds up to say a 6 point advantage to Freo then essentially the books are saying Freo and Ade have the same quality of team, same form etc. For me clearly Ade are going to be atrocious and Freo not great but they're certainly competitive for the most part. I can see some upside for Freo with Mundy, Wilson, Hogan and S. Hill benefiting from game time recently given interrupted preseasons. So Freo -6.5 for 2u it is.
Port
Freo -29 / Ade -75
GC
Freo -13 / Ade -53
Bris
Freo -12 / Ade -37 (should have been alot more)
Essentially Ade have been absolutely pounded three games in a row (Bris should have won by 50+) whereas Freo for the most part have been quite competitive. Obviously Fyfe being out hurts alot though.
Additionally Freo are playing at "home" whereas Ade will be travelling for the 3rd week in a row. If this adds up to say a 6 point advantage to Freo then essentially the books are saying Freo and Ade have the same quality of team, same form etc. For me clearly Ade are going to be atrocious and Freo not great but they're certainly competitive for the most part. I can see some upside for Freo with Mundy, Wilson, Hogan and S. Hill benefiting from game time recently given interrupted preseasons. So Freo -6.5 for 2u it is.
- Sep 17, 2014
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No Fyfe but yes still agree.
For situational bettors Geel vs GC should appeal. Geel have the double milestone game and given their form has been a bit shaky i'm expecting a quality performance. Alternatively I feel a trip down to Skilled Stadium might bring GC a reality check. They've been great for 3 weeks so i'm expecting they might just be believing the hype a little bit and time for a letdown spot for a young team.
Similar spot to early last year where they had won some games and been really competitive then went to Ade and got pumped.
The -18.5 line is pretty hefty given underdogs have covered around 2/3 of games though.
If they don't bring a physical game at Skilled Stadium they might get pumped here.
Similar spot to early last year where they had won some games and been really competitive then went to Ade and got pumped.
The -18.5 line is pretty hefty given underdogs have covered around 2/3 of games though.
If they don't bring a physical game at Skilled Stadium they might get pumped here.
