Review 2020 Draft General Discussion

[CatToTheFuture]

you think it doesn’t cause problems? Losing an entire draft year?

find a solution to past future pick trades

How and why do teams trade players when they don’t have picks to trade this year? Why would port trade wines? Or Sydney trade papley or any of the other similar situations?

free agency compo picks? Are they pushed back a year? If you’re a team with a rfa why are you letting them go to get a pick a year later? Do we have 2 drafts of compo picks stuffed into one draft? How do you prepare points and picks wise for that mess? Normal pick / point value calculations have gone out the window.


list structure.. 18 teams planned on this off-season either draft or player acquisition wise in terms of salary cap and roster needs. How do they fill holes? How does Richmond fill the rance sized gap in their roster?

Nga’s? F/s? Can’t draft them? Do we have double up group of nga’s fs’s next year? How do you prepare picks wise for that mess?

afl ready prospects can’t get into the afl?

overagers run around in juniors for another year? That’s an extra several hundred spots in the 22 either have to be created or get taken by overagers.

champs? How does a champs team doubled up work? Players already miss out as places are tight.. people in next years draft crop miss out on playing champs cause luke Edwards is there instead of the afl?

Where does draft order come from? This year? Next year? Combined? If you’re combining where does ports second rounder end up? Pick 80 after compo picks?

In this case your solution creates way more problems than it solves.

Yeah that's definitely a list of problems created. Some are probably minor but the trading one I hadn't considered much. As a counter point though, what is the actual trade value of a 2020 pick? Not high value I would assume, wouldn't managers be chasing 2021 picks anyway? If it's someone looking for something in return for a defender to plug the hole left by rance for instance, surely a pick in the 2020 draft is too high a risk.

I guess we'll know how much they really know about the 2020 draft when it comes trading time and they start weighing up picks against players. If it's within tolerance of what was being asked for before then they know plenty about the draftees. If they're digging in for more or pushing for 2021 picks instead then they don't know as much about the draftees as they let on

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Victoria is NOT getting out of hand.
Just localized hot spots of selfish idiots that thought they could go about life as normal, and were not among the spectrum of populace that initially submitted to testing.
Despite new cases of infections being labeled as such, they are in fact OLD cases of infection that had not previously been registered.
With the discovery of the latent case clusters, Victoria and Victorians are in fact safer than when the "numbers" were at their minimum.

The sky is not falling, and %99.9 of statistics are meaningless.

Statistics are only meaningless if you ignore the way they're collected.

Majority of cases are community transmission in Vic. This is actually worse than the first wave where majority were returned traveller and were able to be confined.

Consider also this list of known infection outbreaks. Any one of which is more than SA has had sinc

 

[ScrappyDo]

Just a couple of inaccuracies there.

People didn’t “submit” to testing.

They had to meet certain criteria.

How can you differentiate between old and new cases?

Have the Vic government or health authorities published this? Mentioned it in public announcements?

If they were old cases, they would no longer have the virus. They would have the antibodies in their blood stream, but the throat and nasal test wouldn’t pick wouldn’t this up.

Nor are they “latent” cases. I believe you need to look the definition of that word up. They are very much active clusters.

Clarifications here.

People did submit to testing in their thousands. It was voluntary, and I did it too, so I'm sure it was a thing.

The only criteria was to be symptomatic, which was not critically assessed. Anyone suffering from paranoia was also free to be tested.

Generally most cases detected in the public sphere are "old" cases because the individual has submitted to a test due to the appearance of symptoms. With the gestation period of the virus and the lag to be tested and diagnosed, most cases registered would be about a week old by that time and would be a new registration of an old infection.
By comparison, AFL players are tested at intervals that will detect an infection at the pre-symptomatic and pre-transmutable stage, allowing that player to isolate before they are able to infect others.
Unless the government has physically quarantined the populations of these hot spots (which they haven't), and is testing each of them at 3 day intervals (which they are not), it is not possible for the figures to be generated by anything other than latent / preexisting / "old" infections.

The government won't be publishing information that gives people cause to believe that problem is somewhere else, because it leads to reckless behavior. They couldn't even keep people off tinder for a week.

I looked up "latent", I'm happy with my usage. Active cases, or clusters, that lay undetected at the time are classified as "latent".
"In retrospect, there were many latent cases". There will also be many latent cases currently in other parts of the community, which are not "new" cases, but will be classified as such for public consumption. "Active" and "Latent" are the same thing within this context. All cases, either known or unknown (latent) and active.

 

[briztoon]

Clarifications here.

People did submit to testing in their thousands. It was voluntary, and I did it too, so I'm sure it was a thing.

The only criteria was to be symptomatic, which was not critically assessed. Anyone suffering from paranoia was also free to be tested.

Generally most cases detected in the public sphere are "old" cases because the individual has submitted to a test due to the appearance of symptoms. With the gestation period of the virus and the lag to be tested and diagnosed, most cases registered would be about a week old by that time and would be a new registration of an old infection.
By comparison, AFL players are tested at intervals that will detect an infection at the pre-symptomatic and pre-transmutable stage, allowing that player to isolate before they are able to infect others.
Unless the government has physically quarantined the populations of these hot spots (which they haven't), and is testing each of them at 3 day intervals (which they are not), it is not possible for the figures to be generated by anything other than latent / preexisting / "old" infections.

The government won't be publishing information that gives people cause to believe that problem is somewhere else, because it leads to reckless behavior. They couldn't even keep people off tinder for a week.

I looked up "latent", I'm happy with my usage. Active cases, or clusters, that lay undetected at the time are classified as "latent".
"In retrospect, there were many latent cases". There will also be many latent cases currently in other parts of the community, which are not "new" cases, but will be classified as such for public consumption. "Active" and "Latent" are the same thing within this context. All cases, either known or unknown (latent) and active.

I don’t have the time to pull this apart. But it’s full of inaccuracies and down right b.s.

The most obvious one where you say they “detect an infection at the pre-symptomatic and pre-transmutable stage”.

That goes against everything published about the virus. Yes they can detect the virus 24 before someone is symptomatic, but the person is contagious by that stage.

This was established with the original 14 quarantined tourists at Gold Coast hospital, who were tested daily.

This is different to someone who is asymptotic.

As for use of new and old, that’s confusing the definition as used by our governments and medical authorities. New means, newly identified individual.

And there were further criteria people had to meet before being tested. Originally you had to be a returned overseas traveller or had close contact with a returned traveller and have symptoms, most notably a fever. Then they slowly extended the criteria.

I have been tested as well. Twice. But wasn’t eligible to be tested until they opened the testing up to all healthcare workers.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Statistics are only meaningless if you ignore the way they're collected.

Majority of cases are community transmission in Vic. This is actually worse than the first wave where majority were returned traveller and were able to be confined.

Consider also this list of known infection outbreaks. Any one of which is more than SA has had sinc

Agreed, but in this case the increases are isolated to certain localities and are not representative of a growth in the general population.
By enlarge Victoria has done an outstanding job and continues to do so. A few spot fires is par for the course, and "if" properly contained we'll be back on track and better for the experience.

 

[ScrappyDo]

I don’t have the time to pull this apart. But it’s full of inaccuracies and down right b.s.

The most obvious one where you say they “detect an infection at the pre-symptomatic and pre-transmutable stage”.

That goes against everything published about the virus. Yes they can detect the virus 24 before someone is symptomatic, but the person is contagious by that stage.

This was established with the original 14 quarantined tourists at Gold Coast hospital, who were tested daily.

This is different to someone who is asymptotic.

As for use of new and old, that’s confusing the definition as used by our governments and medical authorities. New means, newly identified individual.

And there were further criteria people had to meet before being tested. Originally you had to be a returned overseas traveller or had close contact with a returned traveller and have symptoms, most notably a fever. Then they slowly extended the criteria.

I have been tested as well. Twice. But wasn’t eligible to be tested until they opened the testing up to all healthcare workers.

Suit yourself. I guess with the sky falling down the cows won't have to worry about daylight savings again...

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Agreed, but in this case the increases are isolated to certain localities and are not representative of a growth in the general population.
By enlarge Victoria has done an outstanding job and continues to do so. A few spot fires is par for the course, and "if" properly contained we'll be back on track and better for the experience.

Certainly by global standards vic is doing quite well, but there's still cause for concern when something like 30 of the cases in the last 24 hours had no contact with known sources. The grey line is concerning and despite good work done to date it can all come undone.



I mean Vic was within striking distance of being on the SA trajectory (where I live currently) and Adelaide is pretty well entirely unrestricted. There's a few caps on venues still but they're not far off coming off completely. The cost to the Vic economy of going backwards again is going to be a hit to everyone.

 

[Mego Red]

you think it doesn’t cause problems? Losing an entire draft year?

find a solution to past future pick trades

How and why do teams trade players when they don’t have picks to trade this year? Why would port trade wines? Or Sydney trade papley or any of the other similar situations?

free agency compo picks? Are they pushed back a year? If you’re a team with a rfa why are you letting them go to get a pick a year later? Do we have 2 drafts of compo picks stuffed into one draft? How do you prepare points and picks wise for that mess? Normal pick / point value calculations have gone out the window.


list structure.. 18 teams planned on this off-season either draft or player acquisition wise in terms of salary cap and roster needs. How do they fill holes? How does Richmond fill the rance sized gap in their roster?

Nga’s? F/s? Can’t draft them? Do we have double up group of nga’s fs’s next year? How do you prepare picks wise for that mess?

afl ready prospects can’t get into the afl?

overagers run around in juniors for another year? That’s an extra several hundred spots in the 22 either have to be created or get taken by overagers.

champs? How does a champs team doubled up work? Players already miss out as places are tight.. people in next years draft crop miss out on playing champs cause luke Edwards is there instead of the afl?

Where does draft order come from? This year? Next year? Combined? If you’re combining where does ports second rounder end up? Pick 80 after compo picks?

In this case your solution creates way more problems than it solves.

Mate, I know Crows fans and Port fans are contractually bound to disagree about everything - but you're 100% right about this.

 

[philthy05]

Mate, I know Crows fans and Port fans are contractually bound to disagree about everything - but you're 100% right about this.

not seeing a full year of draftees that they’ve watched for years in their pre-draft year makes it a little bit harder for recruiters to do what they do, which is already an inexact science.

everyone is in the same boat and recruiters will just do their best.

that versus a complete upheaval of the entire leagues off-season and future plans the decision is crystal clear to me.

 

[briztoon]

Suit yourself. I guess with the sky falling down the cows won't have to worry about daylight savings again...

Yeah, good one. Throw some shade instead actually backing up your opinion.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Certainly by global standards vic is doing quite well, but there's still cause for concern when something like 30 of the cases in the last 24 hours had no contact with known sources. The grey line is concerning and despite good work done to date it can all come undone.

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I mean Vic was within striking distance of being on the SA trajectory (where I live currently) and Adelaide is pretty well entirely unrestricted. There's a few caps on venues still but they're not far off coming off completely. The cost to the Vic economy of going backwards again is going to be a hit to everyone.

Yes it's not good, but that is the nature of community transmissions.
It's deceptive because we've become used to the labeling system and accepted "overseas" as a known infection source, when in reality those cases would be almost entirely unknown too.
It's just a shift in the demographics of who's being tested.
It came about because they've found a few pockets groups that were not distancing or getting tested at the rate of the rest of the Melbourne metro area, and since travel is shut down they were of course, community transmissions.
It does make sense that if you target test known hot-spots of people who haven't traveled, then you'll get a graph like that.
It shouldn't be concerning, but rather, comforting that it's been detected and nipped in the bud.
The Vic government have acted appropriately by locking down the areas and testing door to door, but the rest of the state has remained on course.
Numbers will continue to rise as more tests are conducted, but if people obey the distancing advice then the situation will improve off the back of it. It's put us back a few weeks so far as opening the boarders, but by no means is it panic stations.

 

[Goodguy72]

Yes it's not good, but that is the nature of community transmissions.
It's deceptive because we've become used to the labeling system and accepted "overseas" as a known infection source, when in reality those cases would be almost entirely unknown too.
It's just a shift in the demographics of who's being tested.
It came about because they've found a few pockets groups that were not distancing or getting tested at the rate of the rest of the Melbourne metro area, and since travel is shut down they were of course, community transmissions.
It does make sense that if you target test known hot-spots of people who haven't traveled, then you'll get a graph like that.
It shouldn't be concerning, but rather, comforting that it's been detected and nipped in the bud.
The Vic government have acted appropriately by locking down the areas and testing door to door, but the rest of the state has remained on course.
Numbers will continue to rise as more tests are conducted, but if people obey the distancing advice then the situation will improve off the back of it. It's put us back a few weeks so far as opening the boarders, but by no means is it panic stations.

Casey just pulled out of the VFL, feel sorry for the Victorian draft hopefuls. Up in Qld we start scratch matches tomm. Think if you were an overager you would be heading to the WAFL or SANFL

 

[briztoon]

Yes it's not good, but that is the nature of community transmissions.
It's deceptive because we've become used to the labeling system and accepted "overseas" as a known infection source, when in reality those cases would be almost entirely unknown too.
It's just a shift in the demographics of who's being tested.
It came about because they've found a few pockets groups that were not distancing or getting tested at the rate of the rest of the Melbourne metro area, and since travel is shut down they were of course, community transmissions.
It does make sense that if you target test known hot-spots of people who haven't traveled, then you'll get a graph like that.
It shouldn't be concerning, but rather, comforting that it's been detected and nipped in the bud.
The Vic government have acted appropriately by locking down the areas and testing door to door, but the rest of the state has remained on course.
Numbers will continue to rise as more tests are conducted, but if people obey the distancing advice then the situation will improve off the back of it. It's put us back a few weeks so far as opening the boarders, but by no means is it panic stations.

We don’t need to know where overseas, returned Australians in quarantine, caught the virus.

All we need to know is that they are in quarantine, and not a threat to spread it outside of quarantine (yeah, that worked well Vic).

There’s no point in contact tracing overseas, because overseas isn’t a threat to further spreading the virus in Australia.

So that little part of your posts has absolutely no bearing on any part of this discussion, nor is it deceptive.

 

[Goodguy72]

Casey just pulled out of the VFL, feel sorry for the Victorian draft hopefuls. Up in Qld we start scratch matches tomm. Think if you were an overager you would be heading to the WAFL or SANFL

Watched some of the Qld scratch matches and unfortunately think the Covid break has already had an effect on the 2020 crops development. Only Alex Davies seemed to be up to senior Qafl level. Think we may find more overage players drafted this year , in the Northern States Delahunty and Ellen could be key position options, Gore seems to be a more complete player as a mid and Bruce Revilld could be a decent link player.

 

[Goodguy72]

Agreed, but in this case the increases are isolated to certain localities and are not representative of a growth in the general population.
By enlarge Victoria has done an outstanding job and continues to do so. A few spot fires is par for the course, and "if" properly contained we'll be back on track and better for the experience.

I am not a betting man (not since the darl made me cancel my Sportsbet account) but with all the Vic teams being based in qld for the rest of the season and the nab league probably not starting till September there will be more Qlders drafted than normal this year.

 

[briztoon]

I am not a betting man (not since the darl made me cancel my Sportsbet account) but with all the Vic teams being based in qld for the rest of the season and the nab league probably not starting till September there will be more Qlders drafted than normal this year.

Unlikely.

We just don’t produce enough quality players.

As it is, all our academy kids are back playing QAFL or colts, because the academy series has been canned as well.

 

[Goodguy72]

Unlikely.

We just don’t produce enough quality players.

As it is, all our academy kids are back playing QAFL or colts, because the academy series has been canned as well.

The Qafl will be the strongest in history , they now have all the top academy kids , qld neafl players and some of the vfl players have come up. Along with the Wafl and safl it will be the next best comp under the AFL, there will be another Oscar Baker type taken at least

 

[Still Me]

The Qafl will be the strongest in history , they now have all the top academy kids , qld neafl players and some of the vfl players have come up. Along with the Wafl and safl it will be the next best comp under the AFL, there will be another Oscar Baker type taken at least

At least we will see if some of these Academy kids are up to senior footy level of a decent standard.

Will give any Clubs looking at drafting them a good look at them at least.

 

[Pykie]

The Qafl will be the strongest in history , they now have all the top academy kids , qld neafl players and some of the vfl players have come up. Along with the Wafl and safl it will be the next best comp under the AFL, there will be another Oscar Baker type taken at least

Huh?

Are you forgetting the VFL there? Definately the strongest comp under the AFL given the simple numerical numbers of AFL players running around in it week to week.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Huh?

Are you forgetting the VFL there? Definately the strongest comp under the AFL given the simple numerical numbers of AFL players running around in it week to week.

This year I think is the suggestion.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Huh?

Are you forgetting the VFL there? Definately the strongest comp under the AFL given the simple numerical numbers of AFL players running around in it week to week.

Guess how many AFL players are running around in the VFL each week this year.

 

[briztoon]

The Qafl will be the strongest in history , they now have all the top academy kids , qld neafl players and some of the vfl players have come up. Along with the Wafl and safl it will be the next best comp under the AFL, there will be another Oscar Baker type taken at least

Where have the academy kids played in previous years once, they have finished at the U18 National championships?

The best kids have typically played in their AFL clubs NEAFL side, or if they weren’t needed by their AFL club, in their aligned NEAFL club, or back in the QAFL.

This years QAFL might be the strongest it’s been in a decade, but that doesn’t mean the top 18 year olds are better off.

Playing with the AFL reserves in the NEAFL is surely several steps up.

Nor will playing in this years QAFL magically see dozens of academy kids development take off at an exponential rate.

For the most part, the best talents were already known, as they were part of the Allies hub.

They were considered the best draft chances.

I believe you’re vastly over rating the talent that already existed up here, if you believe the current circumstances favours more QLD kids being drafted.

The much more likely scenario, which has been discussed in depth already, is that we see a much shortened draft this year, with a lot of of over age kids in next years U18 competitions and draft.

 

[Goodguy72]

Where have the academy kids played in previous years once, they have finished at the U18 National championships?

The best kids have typically played in their AFL clubs NEAFL side, or if they weren’t needed by their AFL club, in their aligned NEAFL club, or back in the QAFL.

This years QAFL might be the strongest it’s been in a decade, but that doesn’t mean the top 18 year olds are better off.

Playing with the AFL reserves in the NEAFL is surely several steps up.

Nor will playing in this years QAFL magically see dozens of academy kids development take off at an exponential rate.

For the most part, the best talents were already known, as they were part of the Allies hub.

They were considered the best draft chances.

I believe you’re vastly over rating the talent that already existed up here, if you believe the current circumstances favours more QLD kids being drafted.

The much more likely scenario, which has been discussed in depth already, is that we see a much shortened draft this year, with a lot of of over age kids in next years U18 competitions and draft.

Reville
I could name from the teams listed last week a number of possible draftees - Davies , Gore , Crozier , Coleman and
Reville , remember our kids are mixing it with men atm while the poor Vic kids are on their PlayStations. This probably puts them six months ahead. Watch fir a substantial increase in Wa and Sa kids taken too

 

[PMBangers]

Reville
I could name from the teams listed last week a number of possible draftees - Davies , Gore , Crozier , Coleman and
Reville , remember our kids are mixing it with men atm while the poor Vic kids are on their PlayStations. This probably puts them six months ahead. Watch fir a substantial increase in Wa and Sa kids taken too

Certain that any of the serious Vic kids are still on training/ S&C programs, they might be doing different stuff to interstate prospects but it'd be similar amounts.

Plenty of prospects in Vic (from the male and female sides) are still meeting up with team mates that live nearby for skill work and running work together

Then you have Vic Country kids who (outside of Mitchell Shire) don't have restrictions on group training AFAIK, so to say they're 6 months behind is pretty far fetched

 

[Goodguy72]

Certain that any of the serious Vic kids are still on training/ S&C programs, they might be doing different stuff to interstate prospects but it'd be similar amounts.

Plenty of prospects in Vic (from the male and female sides) are still meeting up with team mates that live nearby for skill work and running work together

Then you have Vic Country kids who (outside of Mitchell Shire) don't have restrictions on group training AFAIK, so to say they're 6 months behind is pretty far fetched

The fact is that in their draft year the Vic metro kids have barely got onto the ground , surely that means they are behind in their development than their interstate counterparts ( agree with your Vic country statement , though they aren’t playing games yet) Surely this will mean greater exposure for kids outside of Victoria and some of their players may get drafted as their game is more advanced than their Vic competitors . This is not a normal season so clubs may look outside their normal boxes when drafting. From a qld perspective Connor Budarick has shown that if you give a qld kid a go you may find a player.