Rumour 2020 Draft Rumour Mill

[woopedazz]

So you think that a bloke who nobody has access to in the open draft being taken at pick 1, diminishes the value of Adelaides pick, even though every single player on the board that they did have access to will still be there?

Yes

The number makes no difference. Clubs aren’t going to consider Adelaides pick less desirable just because an academy kid has been selected.

I certainly would. The pick is now for the second-best player in the draft. I'd rather have the best player than the second-best player. Statistics on output would agree.

 

[yyou]

I like Hinge he has great potential.

I reckon he could go either way

 

[Apex36]

Yes


I certainly would. The pick is now for the second-best player in the draft. I'd rather have the best player than the second-best player. Statistics on output would agree.

No, the pick is for the best player in the open draft, as it is now, and as it will be on draft night. The value of a pick doesn’t change just because a player is gone that you never had access to anyway. and regardless of that, opposition clubs base pick value on who is on their board. Just because another player is selected at pick 1 doesn’t mean that said player was number 1 on opposition draft boards.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Cal Twomey basically states in his phantom draft that Adelaide have dropped Hollands from consideration at their first pick, and are choosing between McDonald and Thilthorpe. Twomey has them going with Thilthorpe, and McDonald falling to Hawthorn's pick.

 

[Jen2310]

twomey is drunk. No way is Perkins dropping to 16, or Logan to 5th lol

 

[Billyc]

Cal Twomey basically states in his phantom draft that Adelaide have dropped Hollands from consideration at their first pick, and are choosing between McDonald and Thilthorpe. Twomey has them going with Thilthorpe, and McDonald falling to Hawthorn's pick.

Hawthorn supporters like this.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Twomey has a lot of mail about Essendon. Apparently they won't be bidding on Lachie Jones, and they interviewed Jack Carroll recently, but probably won't take him at their current picks. They also like Conor Stone. Sounds like they could trade down with one of their picks, and Twomey links Collingwood to a trade for pick 10.

The real bolter in his phantom is Max Holmes at Melbourne's second pick.

twomey is drunk. No way is Perkins dropping to 16, or Logan to 5th lol

Probably not, and we shouldn't take his phantom as gospel or anything, but Twomey hears more from clubland about draft plans than anyone else I can think of.

 

[Jen2310]

Twomey has a lot of mail about Essendon. Apparently they be bidding on Lachie Jones, and they interviewed Jack Carroll recently, but probably won't take him at their current picks. They also like Conor Stone. Sounds like they could trade down with one of their picks, and Twomey links Collingwood to a trade for pick 10.

The real bolter in his phantom is Max Holmes at Melbourne's second pick.


Probably not, and we shouldn't take his phantom as gospel or anything, but Twomey hears more from clubland about draft plans than anyone else I can think of.

Yeah, live trading makes these phantom drafts very unpredictable.

 

[blueiris]

twomey is drunk. No way is Perkins dropping to 16, or Logan to 5th lol

Collingwood would love Perkins to fall to them

 

[The Prosecutor]

Twomey has a lot of mail about Essendon. Apparently they won't be bidding on Lachie Jones, and they interviewed Jack Carroll recently, but probably won't take him at their current picks. They also like Conor Stone. Sounds like they could trade down with one of their picks, and Twomey links Collingwood to a trade for pick 10.

The real bolter in his phantom is Max Holmes at Melbourne's second pick.


Probably not, and we shouldn't take his phantom as gospel or anything, but Twomey hears more from clubland about draft plans than anyone else I can think of.

He also said in the video recap of his top 10 that Essendon has been especially hard to read this year, so I wouldn't place any great confidence in those 3 picks being close to locked.

 

[Suma Magic]

He may get a fair bit wrong, but he gets less wrong than anyone else. He is the most accurate draft predictor there is.

 

[hairy biker]

He may get a fair bit wrong, but he gets less wrong than anyone else. He is the most accurate draft predictor there is.

True and in particular his late mail is normally fairly good, but I wonder with covid restrictions whether it means he's a bit out of the loop this year.

I'd imagine much of his info would be recruiters telling him what they expect other clubs to do, but with no U18 championships, no NAB league, scaled back combines and overall far less interaction between clubs/recruiters there may be less intel around this year.

And of course if that is the case it may mean less informed recruiters themselves when it comes to figuring out how the draft itself will pan out.
There was a vid last year of Jason Taylor & the Melbourne recruiters basically tipping where each player would be picked and by whom as they waited to select Trent Rivers

24

Trent Rivers

Age

24

Ht

188cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

2.0

4star

MG

171.3

3star

D

10.7

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

2.0

3star

MG

171.3

3star

D

10.7

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

4.7

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

171.3

3star

.
I'd imagine far less certainty this year and clubs may be more willing to trade up to ensure they get the player they want.

 

[Lore]

He may get a fair bit wrong, but he gets less wrong than anyone else. He is the most accurate draft predictor there is.

I'm just going to take the opportunity to point out that not one but two random people on BigFooty won our draft tipping competition last year and they were both more accurate than Twomey.

=)


Not sure if fluke or mad skillz

 

[THE_GUN]

You have to pick and chose what you believe in Twomey's phantom predictions i believe

* I think he is correct in his bolters in Holmes & Stone as he would have had these names told to him from recruiters as these names 2 months ago were nowhere near the top 30 and now he has them in there.

* His opinion on the essendon picks would be correct but live trading could and will change things which will have a flow on effect down the line which would put the rest of the picks out depending on who they trade with.

* GWS / Essendon / Collingwood / North / Crows all having multiple picks and all open to trading back/Fwd and into 2021 also has a massive chance of changing things.

But as a Richmond supporter having Macrae , Carroll, O'Driscoll & Ford available to chose from gives me confidence to getting a good player even though i think there is still a very big chance Richmond trade 'Back' in this years draft possibly with the Crows for their picks 22+23

Going to be a very interesting draft

 

[THE_GUN]

I'm just going to take the opportunity to point out that not one but two random people on BigFooty won our draft tipping competition last year and they were both more accurate than Twomey.

=)


Not sure if fluke or mad skillz

Maybe PM them and get them to do a mock

 

[yaco55]

Yeah there is no way Essendon of all teams who just lost Daniher will skip Thilthorpe with all 3 picks.

Reckon if Thilthorpe is there at pick 6 then their will be a pick swap by EFC and AFC - 9 and 22 for 6 - EFC have no real need for Thilthorpe who is more of a ruck.

 

[otr2020]

No, the pick is for the best player in the open draft, as it is now, and as it will be on draft night. The value of a pick doesn’t change just because a player is gone that you never had access to anyway. and regardless of that, opposition clubs base pick value on who is on their board. Just because another player is selected at pick 1 doesn’t mean that said player was number 1 on opposition draft boards.

I know you mean well but I really think you should stop wasting you're time trying to explain such a simple thing..maybe they are pulling your leg not sure ..surely they can't be serious

 

[JayJ20]

Reckon if Thilthorpe is there at pick 6 then their will be a pick swap by EFC and AFC - 9 and 22 for 6 - EFC have no real need for Thilthorpe who is more of a ruck.

I don't see him as a ruckman only. I see him as a Daniher type who plays as a key forward and rotates through the ruck. I think Thilthorpe himself believes he is a forward too. We won't pass up that talent.

If Adelaide are desperate, then it's going to take a lot more than 9 and 22.

 

[mpal6]

I don't see him as a ruckman only. I see him as a Daniher type who plays as a key forward and rotates through the ruck. I think Thilthorpe himself believes he is a forward too. We won't pass up that talent.

If Adelaide are desperate, then it's going to take a lot more than 9 and 22.

Haha, you're getting pick 22 for a 3 spot drop where you hold all the picks. Doubt Adelaide are going to give you 2021 first which is likely to be a top 3 pick.

 

[anotherletdown]

I don't see him as a ruckman only. I see him as a Daniher type who plays as a key forward and rotates through the ruck. I think Thilthorpe himself believes he is a forward too. We won't pass up that talent.

If Adelaide are desperate, then it's going to take a lot more than 9 and 22.

What's the difference between pick 6 and 8 if Essendon arent interested? The cost is access to only one player. I'd do that deal all day long

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Thilthorpe isn't dropping to 6. Either GC take him themselves or trade the pick to Adelaide for their future first and possibly something else. GC need another key forward more than they need another midfielder.

 

[mpal6]

Thilthorpe isn't dropping to 6. Either GC take him themselves or trade the pick to Adelaide for their future first and possibly something else. GC need another key forward more than they need another midfielder.

Depends on if Hawks take Will Philips or a smokey like Archie Perkins.. then Gold Coast may get to choose between Hollands and Thilthorpe.

Thilthorpe won't get past Essendon's 3 picks for sure.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Potential north-hawk pick swap with North getting something extra in return obviously.

 

[Pykie]

Thinking North think they might be able to get Hollands/Thilthorpe at #4.

We aren't interested in McDonald apparently.

The make weight will be interesting.

Pick 2 and 2021 Rnd 2 for
Pick 4 and 2021 Rnd 1

?

 

[citizen-erased]

Thilthorpe isn't dropping to 6. Either GC take him themselves or trade the pick to Adelaide for their future first and possibly something else. GC need another key forward more than they need another midfielder.

Reckon Reid or Cox are smokey's for GCS at 5 if the pick isn't traded.
Would sure up their backline nicely

What's the difference between pick 6 and 8 if Essendon arent interested? The cost is access to only one player. I'd do that deal all day long

Dons would be interested. We need KPF talent. If Thilthorpe is there, we take him minus an offer too good to refuse.