List Mgmt. 2020 List Management II

[CJMB]

We have an oversupply of tall players and a massive undersupply of mids, that is simple. Entire focus needs to be finding multiple talented mids.

Do we really though? Especially if we're likely getting rid of BSOS, Goddard, O'Dwyer, Moore on top of Kreuzer retiring.

Going with the current ages and listed positions on the CFC app (key fwd, fwd, ruck, key def, def):

Key Def:

1. Weitering 22
2. Jones 29
3. Macreadie 22

Def (3rd tall/general)

1. Plowman 26
2. Marchbank 23

Ruck:

1. Pittonet 24
2. De Koning 21 (can also play KF)

Key Fwd:

1. Curnow 23
2. McKay 22
3. Casboult 30 (can also play KD & ruck)

Fwd (3rd tall/general):

1. McGovern 25 (can also play 3rd tall/gen def)
2. Silvagni 22 (can also play mid/tag)

Considering we usually play 3 talls (2x key, 1x 3rd) at each end, our current setup effectively gives us one backup for each category. Levi gives us some extra security across 3 lines, however he's close to the end.

12 players out of 46 is 26%, 7 out of 22 is 32%. So even if you counted those 5 who almost certainly won't be here next year, that's 37% so not a huge amount greater than our standard 3+1+3 on field talls. Even if the lists next year go to 38+2, those 12 players are only 30% of the list, so less than their on-field percentage.

Looking forward, I think we need another KPD and another ruckman to develop. I mean real key position defender, not a3rd tall type, we're set there for a while. I feel KPF is less important, you can play undersized for a bit if need be, like the tigers did pre-Lynch, but you don't want to run out of depth in the ruck of KPD department.

 

[Dunna Heartknee]

We need Williams and Saad to provide us with run. We should give away our 1st Round Pick this year for Saad and our 1st round pick next year for Williams.

We are still short in the midfield but we won't be if SPS, Dow, O'Brien, Stocker and Fisher step up to the plate.

B: Plowman----------------Jones----------------Docherty

H: *Williams-----------Weitering---------------*Saad

C: Newnes----------------Cripps-----------------O'Brien

H: Cuningham-----------C.Curnow--------------Martin

F: Betts-------------------McKay----------------McGovern

Foll: Pittonet, Setterfield, Walsh

Bench: Marchbank, Dow, SPS, Fisher

No room for Williamson

 

[HARKER]

For what it's worth, SOS (the club) would have taken Ridley instead of Fisher, had he been available.
Essendon got themselves a good one there and a much better one than the player that went after him....that some of us want.

Warming a little more towards Saad. Not there all the way yet, but going OK...
Even if we did get Williams and Saad, I'd still prefer the hard outside run rather than a cheaper inside mid.
I know....it's all still about support for Cripps and I get that, but I also feel it's something we can do with what we have on hand.

 

[Mezzoculo]

Keep your powder dry son.

Very confident on Williams. Part of our pitch was him playing midfield minutes and that was something he was really excited about.

Can I get excited yet, dad?

 

[Blue__Balls]

Which is why I have listed 6 players who I believe are less deserving of a spot.

"We shouldn't keep them just to have them in our back pocket for when Jones and Casboult retire or drop off a cliff." Isn't that what list management is all about, developing players to be ready for when players age out?

"BSOS doesn't seem to have Jack's desire to improve himself." Is this based on your personal relationship with Ben or the extensive viewing of reserves games this year?

I don't think 6 will be enough this year.

List management is more holistic than just developing players. Recruitment, contract management, performance assessment...delisting. It's all part of the deal.

Little infographic to help me organise and illustrate my thoughts on this:



Green are the ones I think we keep for sure. Either because they're contracted, or they're absolutely worth persisting with unless an incredibly good offer came along

Blue are the minimum expectations I have for new recruits. Two via trade/free agency, two from the draft (Saad could be someone else, but he's a likely placeholder for now).

Red are already out, orange I think most would agree are gone.

If list sizes do drop to 40, then 3 of the 7 yellow names need to go as well. More if we recruit more than four players via trade, free agency or the draft. The only one I'd be really disappointed to see go is Honey.

I could absolutely see a scenario where both BSOS and Macreadie stay, I could see a scenario where only one stays, but I could also see a scenario where both are delisted - and I don't think there's a signficant impact on our long-term prospects in any of those three scenarios.

 

[Blue__Balls]

We need Williams and Saad to provide us with run. We should give away our 1st Round Pick this year for Saad and our 1st round pick next year for Williams.

We are still short in the midfield but we won't be if SPS, Dow, O'Brien, Stocker and Fisher step up to the plate.

B: Plowman----------------Jones----------------Docherty

H: *Williams-----------Weitering---------------*Saad

C: Newnes----------------Cripps-----------------O'Brien

H: Cuningham-----------C.Curnow--------------Martin

F: Betts-------------------McKay----------------McGovern

Foll: Pittonet, Setterfield, Walsh

Bench: Marchbank, Dow, SPS, Fisher

DJ, please just stop.

 

[Macca43]

For what it's worth, SOS (the club) would have taken Ridley instead of Fisher, had he been available.
Essendon got themselves a good one there and a much better one than the player that went after him....that some of us want.

Warming a little more towards Saad. Not there all the way yet, but going OK...
Even if we did get Williams and Saad, I'd still prefer the hard outside run rather than a cheaper inside mid.
I know....it's all still about support for Cripps and I get that, but I also feel it's something we can do with what we have on hand.

I am a bit the same on Saad, if we get him great and that speed off half back will definitely be appreciated by Harry and Charlie but he wouldn't be my first target.

 

[fnm_just a man]

Would Saad and Brent Daniels be considered similar value at the trade table?

I’d personally rank Daniels higher (pick 10-15), but I may be underselling Saad (17-25). If we pursue the 2 for 1 first rounders from Cats or Lions, I’d prefer we get in Daniels’ ear before Saad and see if we can get anywhere .. could always offer one for each, but I’d prefer to bundle the second with next year’s for an established gun, 2-way running midfielder... Daniels is also mates with Dow and O’Brien (or at least went to school with them).

 

[Macca43]

I don't think 6 will be enough this year.

List management is more holistic than just developing players. Recruitment, contract management, performance assessment...delisting. It's all part of the deal.

Little infographic to help me organise and illustrate my thoughts on this:

View attachment 966884

Green are the ones I think we keep for sure. Either because they're contracted, or they're absolutely worth persisting with unless an incredibly good offer came along

Blue are the minimum expectations I have for new recruits. Two via trade/free agency, two from the draft (Saad could be someone else, but he's a likely placeholder for now).

Red are already out, orange I think most would agree are gone.

If list sizes do drop to 40, then 3 of the 7 yellow names need to go as well. More if we recruit more than four players via trade, free agency or the draft. The only one I'd be really disappointed to see go is Honey.

I could absolutely see a scenario where both BSOS and Macreadie stay, I could see a scenario where only one stays, but I could also see a scenario where both are delisted - and I don't think there's a signficant impact on our long-term prospects in any of those three scenarios.

The lists won't be cut to 40, Clarko used 40 players this year.

 

[smashbox gill]

Would rather Witherden than Saad

 

[DangerousD]

I don't think 6 will be enough this year.

List management is more holistic than just developing players. Recruitment, contract management, performance assessment...delisting. It's all part of the deal.

Little infographic to help me organise and illustrate my thoughts on this:

View attachment 966884

Green are the ones I think we keep for sure. Either because they're contracted, or they're absolutely worth persisting with unless an incredibly good offer came along

Blue are the minimum expectations I have for new recruits. Two via trade/free agency, two from the draft (Saad could be someone else, but he's a likely placeholder for now).

Red are already out, orange I think most would agree are gone.

If list sizes do drop to 40, then 3 of the 7 yellow names need to go as well. More if we recruit more than four players via trade, free agency or the draft. The only one I'd be really disappointed to see go is Honey.

I could absolutely see a scenario where both BSOS and Macreadie stay, I could see a scenario where only one stays, but I could also see a scenario where both are delisted - and I don't think there's a signficant impact on our long-term prospects in any of those three scenarios.

I really think people need to relax a little when thinking about the idea of cutting player A and B, the lists it seem will be cut, but clubs will still need to be able to draw on players to fill spots and to fill our VFL side.
Its likely that even though Honey, Hmac, Owies get delisted, they will all still get offered the chance to be part of the VFL set up and be promoted in the event of an injury.

The list cuts it seem are purely about cutting budgets, the clubs won’t lose out but the bottom 6-10 players will, the opportunity will still be there but they will be paid a lot less than what they previously would.

Thats my take anyway.

 

[Blue__Balls]

The lists won't be cut to 40, Clarko used 40 players this year.

I don't think the number of players used by Hawthorn in a year that featured two condensed fixture blocks is going to factor into the AFL's decision on maximum list sizes in the face of the huge financial hit they've taken this year.

40 seems to be the number being thrown around in most discussions. It's not concrete, of course, but it sounds reasonable. For most clubs, it's 4 players. For us it's more because we have a cat B rookie and picked up Moore via the SSP to cover Kemp's LTI.

Work with me Macca, despite our history.



If list sizes drop to 40, does that look about right to you, and how do you think those last 4 list spots are filled? Of the 4 you keep, how would you prioritise them in the event that we recruited or drafted more players?

 

[Stamos]

The lists won't be cut to 40, Clarko used 40 players this year.

Not so sure about that

 

[DangerousD]

Would rather Witherden than Saad

I don’t understand this.

Witherden isn’t best 22 at Brisbane, Saad finished 3rd in Essendons BandF

 

[Metalcrusher]

Can I get excited yet, dad?

Just a touch ... not a full grab ... and just the tip only!

 

[Blue__Balls]

Would Saad and Brent Daniels be considered similar value at the trade table?

I’d personally rank Daniels higher (pick 10-15), but I may be underselling Saad (17-25). If we pursue the 2 for 1 first rounders from Cats or Lions, I’d prefer we get in Daniels’ ear before Saad and see if we can get anywhere .. could always offer one for each, but I’d prefer to bundle the second with next year’s for an established gun, 2-way running midfielder... Daniels is also mates with Dow and O’Brien (or at least went to school with them).

When you say Brent, do you mean Caleb?

Brent Daniels is a small forward at GWS who averaged one goal every three games this year. I suspect his value would be significantly lower than Saad's.

Caleb Daniel is an elite distributor off half back. A bit of a defensive liability at times, but a beautiful kick of the footy. Would cost more than Saad in my view, firmly in late first round pick territory.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

We need Williams and Saad to provide us with run. We should give away our 1st Round Pick this year for Saad and our 1st round pick next year for Williams.

We are still short in the midfield but we won't be if SPS, Dow, O'Brien, Stocker and Fisher step up to the plate.

B: Plowman----------------Jones----------------Docherty

H: *Williams-----------Weitering---------------*Saad

C: Newnes----------------Cripps-----------------O'Brien

H: Cuningham-----------C.Curnow--------------Martin

F: Betts-------------------McKay----------------McGovern

Foll: Pittonet, Setterfield, Walsh

Bench: Marchbank, Dow, SPS, Fisher

Williams is a free agent, would also play midfield.

 

[Macca43]

I don't think the number of players used by Hawthorn in a year that featured two condensed fixture blocks is going to factor into the AFL's decision on maximum list sizes in the face of the huge financial hit they've taken this year.

40 seems to be the number being thrown around in most discussions. It's not concrete, of course, but it sounds reasonable. For most clubs, it's 4 players. For us it's more because we have a cat B rookie and picked up Moore via the SSP to cover Kemp's LTI.

Work with me Macca, despite our history.

View attachment 966893

If list sizes drop to 40, does that look about right to you, and how do you think those last 4 list spots are filled? Of the 4 you keep, how would you prioritise them in the event that we recruited or drafted more players?

Not so sure about that

Its a joke, Clarko always gets what he wants, Clarko has a coffee with Gil etc etc

As for actual list sizes and the massive hit the AFL has taken, in 2018 the AFL made $50m, in 2019 it was $27.9m - if they can't find a way to stay afloat after a one off hit without reducing list sizes the need to get out of the industry.

As for the list, as per our history we largely agree but you want to argue. If for some reason we get to a point where delisting 7 players isn't enough to make room to add 4 then yes the players in yellow are the most likely to take a hit.

 

[Macca43]

I really think people need to relax a little when thinking about the idea of cutting player A and B, the lists it seem will be cut, but clubs will still need to be able to draw on players to fill spots and to fill our VFL side.
Its likely that even though Honey, Hmac, Owies get delisted, they will all still get offered the chance to be part of the VFL set up and be promoted in the event of an injury.

The list cuts it seem are purely about cutting budgets, the clubs won’t lose out but the bottom 6-10 players will, the opportunity will still be there but they will be paid a lot less than what they previously would.

Thats my take anyway.

The fact that Carlton played a few 12V 12 games, played a combined Richmond, Essendon Melbourne side and joined with the bombers to field a side shows there isn't a great deal of room to move with the lists

 

[fnm_just a man]

When you say Brent, do you mean Caleb?

Brent Daniels is a small forward at GWS who averaged one goal every three games this year. I suspect his value would be significantly lower than Saad's.

Caleb Daniel is an elite distributor off half back. A bit of a defensive liability at times, but a beautiful kick of the footy. Would cost more than Saad in my view, firmly in late first round pick territory.

Nah, I know who they are... and if Carlton had have followed my Phantom Draft, we’d have drafted Caleb

I reckon Daniels has a lot to offer, despite not having big numbers yet. Perhaps I rate him a little highly. Have a tendency towards small, zippy and skilful players. Think he offers something we lack, all the same, and is still very young.

I’ve warmed to Saad. Think he’s a better defender than I gave him credit for and he is also granted some leeway for some average decision-making (and kicking) on account of having played for poor teams or in poor systems.

 

[BigFrizz36]

When you say Brent, do you mean Caleb?

Brent Daniels is a small forward at GWS who averaged one goal every three games this year. I suspect his value would be significantly lower than Saad's.

Caleb Daniel is an elite distributor off half back. A bit of a defensive liability at times, but a beautiful kick of the footy. Would cost more than Saad in my view, firmly in late first round pick territory.

Straight swap for Liam Jones? (those that know draft history will get it)

 

[BigFrizz36]

S

Nah, I know who they are... and if Carlton had have followed my Phantom Draft, we’d have drafted Caleb

I reckon Daniels has a lot to offer, despite not having big numbers yet. Perhaps I rate him a little highly. Have a tendency towards small, zippy and skilful players. Think he offers something we lack, all the same, and is still very young.

I’ve warmed to Saad. Think he’s a better defender than I gave him credit for and he is also granted some leeway for some average decision-making (and kicking) on account of having played for poor teams or in poor systems.

So did you make a mistake or do you really think Brent Daniels is worth 12 - 15. If so Shirley you can't be serious.

 

[Madblue]

How good will our backline look next year with Saad and Newman replacing SPS and Simmo and occassionaly having Williams there as well !

 

[Sector 7G]

I don’t understand this.

Witherden isn’t best 22 at Brisbane, Saad finished 3rd in Essendons BandF

What point of difference does Witherden give us to Newman and Docherty. Steady good kicks without a lot of pace.

Saad changes our backline. Long kick with pace. Harry and CC will love the ball coming in quick. There were times Saad made McKernan look good.

Just don't want to give a top 10 1st rounder for a 27 yr old HBF.

 

[DangerousD]

Its a joke, Clarko always gets what he wants, Clarko has a coffee with Gil etc etc

As for actual list sizes and the massive hit the AFL has taken, in 2018 the AFL made $50m, in 2019 it was $27.9m - if they can't find a way to stay afloat after a one off hit without reducing list sizes the need to get out of the industry.

As for the list, as per our history we largely agree but you want to argue. If for some reason we get to a point where delisting 7 players isn't enough to make room to add 4 then yes the players in yellow are the most likely to take a hit.

You are talking of a one off hit as it’s a year where you haven’t made a profit, lots of businesses are set up to lose money for a month or two or could keep their heads afloat for a prolonged period, but aren’t we talking of hundreds of millions in losses?

Do the list cuts help the AFL or the clubs more?

The AFL had to take out a $500M loan this year to stay afloat, hardly just a one off hit, it’s a lifetime of hits in one go.