List Mgmt. 2020 List Management

[Juddernaut08]

For those interested:

The Papley story: A unique player, a skyrocketing value and a complicated future

Tom Papley is a unique player in a unique situation

www.afl.com.au

The Papley hype is being blown out of proportion.

If Josh Kelly is potentially available this trade period, can't see how Papley is the most lucrative trade target.

So if his market value is now $1m per year, we'll most likely have to pay $1.2-$1.3m per year to pry him from Sydney. He could well end up being close to the highest paid player in the game. I personally don't have him anywhere near the top echelon of players in the AFL including Fyfe, Dangerfield, Martin, Grundy etc. but it seems like others do.

Need to be careful with a contract like this, as it's the type of contract that could cripple the club moving forward.

You could probably get a combination of Zac Williams and Brad Crouch for that money and not have to give up any picks either.

Hes not worth $1mil a year.

Problem with him is if hes getting targeted that much in a poor forwardline, his output will drop when he comes to one choc full of high quality targets.

The best small forward will still never be the presence and reliable target as a curnow/mckay & this year's casboult.

Thats why we used to frustrate under bolts at times, too often we were kicking to smaller players as the main target.

 

[Team DJ]

With respect, I think I know why Callum Moore was looked over in his draft year. Rookie listed. Delisted, and then looked over again until an emergency list spot opened for us.


In baseball they call him a 4A player. To good for AAA (minor Leagues) not good enough for major leagues.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Someone else then

No

 

[swuzzlebubble]

No

Our whole list is untouchable?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Our whole list is untouchable?

No
You're the one thinking Cuningham or McGovern and a 2nd gets Papley to the Blues.

We won't be trading either of those 2 this off season. If we Papley, it's via picks

 

[swuzzlebubble]

No
You're the one thinking Cuningham or McGovern and a 2nd gets Papley to the Blues.

We won't be trading either of those 2 this off season. If we Papley, it's via picks

Swans will be more likely after a player than picks. That was certainly their position last year. Whether Daniher happens and makes a difference to that, time will tell.
Conversely if we are also after a midfielder from eg GWS they will be more likely after picks to continue their cycle of high picks coming through, leaving and being replaced by another draftee.
Don't get hung up on deal specifics.
I'll revert to "pick plus player" for Papley.

 

[Manhattanite]

Just watched the pre-game interview of Josh Kelly on fox footy and twice he declined to say he plans to stay at the Giants - could only say he is happy at the Giants even though he was asked to explicitly say “I’m happy at the giants and I plan to stay”

Seems more gettable now especially if they underachieve this season




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Juice030103]

Operation: Get papley

take our picks idc he’s worth it

 

[Juddernaut08]

No Charlie.

No McKay.

McGovern missing for almost 3/4 of the game.

12 months ago there is no way we wouldve thought we could possibly win a game of football without our 3 starting kpfs. And TDK didnt even feature.

Testament to Cas and the group.

 

[FreeTK]

What are you guys thinking RE: Papley?

Fox footy is saying Carlton is all in to make sure they get him this year. By all reports pick 9 wasn't able to get it done last year. Papley is worth more in 2020 than he was in 2019, and draft picks are worth less in this draft due to lack of exposed form of potential draftees.

Would you consider 2 first rounders overs? If so, what would you think is the right price for Papley this year, given he is still under contract.

 

[Brackets]

Yeah we're not getting Papley

 

[katmanblue]

Hes not worth $1mil a year.

Problem with him is if hes getting targeted that much in a poor forwardline, his output will drop when he comes to one choc full of high quality targets.

The best small forward will still never be the presence and reliable target as a curnow/mckay & this year's casboult.

Thats why we used to frustrate under bolts at times, too often we were kicking to smaller players as the main target.

I'd be happy 1.2 goals per game.

The focus he will take away from the forwards would be enough.

Also he is a difference maker.

On SM-N960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Juddernaut08]

What are you guys thinking RE: Papley?

Fox footy is saying Carlton is all in to make sure they get him this year. By all reports pick 9 wasn't able to get it done last year. Papley is worth more in 2020 than he was in 2019, and draft picks are worth less in this draft due to lack of exposed form of potential draftees.

Would you consider 2 first rounders overs? If so, what would you think is the right price for Papley this year, given he is still under contract.

lol

 

[Accidental genius]

we are desperate for papley...what would be the most we can afford in terms of picks?

 

[FreeTK]

lol

I really just came to get an idea of how blue baggers felt about what he's worth, given he is contracted and the lower value of picks in this years draft.

 

[Juddernaut08]

I really just came to get an idea of how blue baggers felt about what he's worth, given he is contracted and the lower value of picks in this years draft.

You gave up less for Tim Kelly, and that was still labelled an overpay.

If 2 firsts is the asking price for a small forward I hope we tell them to jump.

 

[FreeTK]

You gave up less for Tim Kelly, and that was still labelled an overpay.

If 2 firsts is the asking price for a small forward I hope we tell them to jump.

Let's say Carlton has pick 9 again. If it didn't get it done in 2019, it will be nowhere near enough in 2020.

-We gave up 14,24,31 and 2020 1st for Tim Kelly
- Tim Kelly was out of contract
- Draft picks in 2020 aren't as valuable as they were in 2019. Pick 9 in 2019 draft is not worth 9 in 2020 due to the lack of exposed form
- Papley is currently leading the Coleman medal in a bottom 4 team, and at 24 his best years are in front of him.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

What are you guys thinking RE: Papley?

Fox footy is saying Carlton is all in to make sure they get him this year. By all reports pick 9 wasn't able to get it done last year. Papley is worth more in 2020 than he was in 2019, and draft picks are worth less in this draft due to lack of exposed form of potential draftees.

Would you consider 2 first rounders overs? If so, what would you think is the right price for Papley this year, given he is still under contract.

It’s hard to know with their academy kid a pick ~6 plus may not mean much to them this year so hopefully it’s a future first and our second and third this year for points but I doubt they take that.
Maybe two firsts with change going each way but I imagine they’ll be wanting to trade our first this year for a player because it would just be wasted matching.
We may just have to trade up to get a top 5 pick for them.
what ever it is it won’t be simple and he will be very expensive. Personally I imagine we Will lose both firsts and hopefully get some change back, maybe an upgrade of our second for theirs which it going to be used up on matching a bid anyway. Something like that anyway

 

[F_therest]

Operation: Get papley

take our picks idc he’s worth it

With this years draft being compromised i'd probably be OK with giving up our 2020 & 2021 first round picks. Maybe a third coming back to us.

Let's say 2020 is pick 10...with the compromised draft it's probably more like pick 14. On top of that potential draftees haven't played much this year so it's even harder than normal to pick a winner.

Then we'd be hoping our 2021 pick is in the teens with another year under Teague and Papley in our team.

The guy is a star and has it all...not just the goals and goal nous, but toughness and gets stuck into the opposition. Our forward line is missing an antagoniser.

 

[F_therest]

You gave up less for Tim Kelly, and that was still labelled an overpay.

If 2 firsts is the asking price for a small forward I hope we tell them to jump.

2 x 1sts is a too simple way to look at it.

It could be pick 1 & 1, or pick 18 & 18.

See my post above...especially with this year being a compromised draft year and draftees are barely playing, a first round pick this year isn't worth as much as normal. These factors come into it. Can't just look at it as 'oh he's not worth 2 x first rounders'.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

What are you guys thinking RE: Papley?

Fox footy is saying Carlton is all in to make sure they get him this year. By all reports pick 9 wasn't able to get it done last year. Papley is worth more in 2020 than he was in 2019, and draft picks are worth less in this draft due to lack of exposed form of potential draftees.

Would you consider 2 first rounders overs? If so, what would you think is the right price for Papley this year, given he is still under contract.

Pick #9 was accepted by Sydney last year.

The deal didn’t go through only because #9 was rejected by Essendon in their dealings with Sydney for Daniher.

We will probably pay a kings ransoms because:

1. Papley is young (23)
2. Papley has had a better season in 2020
3. Papley is contracted
4. Sydney knows that we will be desperate following the failed 2019 attempt.

I can’t see us being a bottom 6-8 side next year, so I’d probably pay the price to add him to our 22.

 

[FreeTK]

Pick #9 was accepted by Sydney last year.

The deal didn’t go through only because #9 was rejected by Essendon in their dealings with Sydney for Daniher.

We will probably pay a kings ransoms because:

1. Papley is young (23)
2. Papley has had a better season in 2020
3. Papley is contracted
4. Sydney knows that we will be desperate following the failed 2019 attempt.

I know that with Tim Kelly after he nominated us the 2nd time after the failed trade request the year before, it was just more a case of getting it done and handing over the picks, even if it's over, just get the deal done.

I guess my question is more about are Blue baggers happy to pay whatever the price to get Papley. When you look at your list is it a case of Papley being the missing piece to play finals in 2021, or is there more work to be done beyond just securing the Papley trade?

 

[thylacine60]

Hes not worth $1mil a year.

Problem with him is if hes getting targeted that much in a poor forwardline, his output will drop when he comes to one choc full of high quality targets.

The best small forward will still never be the presence and reliable target as a curnow/mckay & this year's casboult.

Thats why we used to frustrate under bolts at times, too often we were kicking to smaller players as the main target.

he made a mockery of this today..........4 more!

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

I know that with Tim Kelly after he nominated us the 2nd time after the failed trade request the year before, it was just more a case of getting it done and handing over the picks, even if it's over, just get the deal done.

I guess my question is more about are Blue baggers happy to pay whatever the price to get Papley. When you look at your list is it a case of Papley being the missing piece to play finals in 2021, or is there more work to be done beyond just securing the Papley trade?

I think it may be a similar situation to Kelly.

However, there is one key difference IMO:

Geelong felt the pressure to let Tim Kelly go home on compassionate grounds (his autistic children needing further care/family support).

West Coast still paid handsomely, however I think Geelong were placed in a position where they were bound to relent and let him go at some stage regardless of what what on the table. Credit to West Coast who came to the party.

Papley is under contract for one more year and Sydney would only be letting him walk to a better team out of the goodness of their own heart.

The other thing to note is that we are under a different list management regime this year, so Austin may be a bit more willing to part with “overs” to just get the deal done and earn a huge scalp early in his tenure.

 

[FreeTK]

I think it may be a similar situation to Kelly.

However, there is one key difference IMO:

Geelong felt the pressure to let Tim Kelly go home on compassionate grounds (his autistic children needing further care/family support).

West Coast still paid handsomely, however I think Geelong were placed in a position where they were bound to relent and let him go at some stage regardless of what what on the table. Credit to West Coast who came to the party.

Papley is under contract for one more year and Sydney would only be letting him walk to a better team out of the goodness of their own heart.

That is precisely my point. I though Papley was contracted until 2023? I just wanted to get an idea if there was a consensus about how much is too much for Papley this year.

With this years draft being compromised i'd probably be OK with giving up our 2020 & 2021 first round picks. Maybe a third coming back to us.

Let's say 2020 is pick 10...with the compromised draft it's probably more like pick 14. On top of that potential draftees haven't played much this year so it's even harder than normal to pick a winner.

Then we'd be hoping our 2021 pick is in the teens with another year under Teague and Papley in our team.

The guy is a star and has it all...not just the goals and goal nous, but toughness and gets stuck into the opposition. Our forward line is missing an antagoniser.

This is a good summary.