Think it will be 7-8 minimum
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List Mgmt. 2020 List Management
- Thread starter Jeremias
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Think it will be 7-8 minimum
RoyalParade
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- Feb 19, 2012
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Main list or total?
Total
RoyalParade
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Yeah seems reasonable.
I mentioned 5 main list changes.
Owies, Goddard make 7.
We're playing in the same ballpark
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- Apr 16, 2008
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Seeing our 2nds still firmly makes me believe we are still a year off moving up to a finals contender. You're right, id say our 2nds will struggle. But they have some quality in there albeit young.
Bring in a A grader mid. Papley and a FA and 2021 looks unbelievable to me
Oh that whole black and white, where a mid can only be a mid, forward can only be a forward, etc
From another thread
Beyond this year, 28 years old and younger
Plowman Weitering Marchbank
Docherty Macreadie/BSOS Williamson
Walsh Cripps Setterfield
Martin Charlie Cuningham
Fisher McKay McGovern
TDK Kemp Stocker
LOB SPS Silvagni Dow
EMG : Newman Cottrell Kennedy Newnes Gibbons Lang Ramsay Philp Honey Pittonet
Gone Levi, Murphy, Ed, Simmo, Jones, Krooz, Betts
Think we will be fine when it comes to retaining youth, although we need to target a KPD and a ruckman if Macreadie and or BSOS, Pittonet dont come on
Then you've missed my starting point and another one or two along the way -
a. First, you can't just stack on an endless amount of emergencies to prove a point. It actually strengthens my point.
b. Second - Players will want to play in their preferred positions, in order to further their football careers. I think you'll see what I mean as the season goes on.
c. Third - Remember, we still have a couple years of recruiting and drafting to take into account here and things will change and players that were picked with single higher numbers won't be seeing much premium game time at all and then what is likely to come about?
There will be changes to what we currently see as being our best team in two years time and not everyone here will make it at the CFC.
We may have to consider trading some of these players in deals to get higher draft picks and ultimately targeted players.
- Aug 22, 2014
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Caleb Marchbank will be our Ryan Schoenmakers - gut feeling.
I read your initial post, but I will address each point in more detail
Actually you can just stack an endless amount of emergencies, as each club has a playing list of 40 odd players, the majority that have a pecking order based on talent, injuries, form, fitness, development etc. There will also be natural attrition through retirements and or lack of development, which makes up the majority of a club's list changes
Seen you mention this a number of times, but it is largely non existent. These kids play a number of positions during their development years and where they play at the lower levels is not indicative of where they will play at the next level, with countless examples such. Walker was drafted as a HB, but we all witnessed how effective he was as a forward. Vlastuin was recruited as a midfielder, yet found a home at HB with 2 flags to his name. So it has nothing to do with players looking for a new home, which is driven more by the lure of family (Dangerfield), on field success (Lynch) or money (Ellis)
Each club over the last 7 years averages close to 9 list changes a year, again largely due to retirements and delistings, with some trading. Minimum is 3 changes, yet that is an extremely rare outcome
The bold text is the most bizarre. Where players are picked is not indicative of their career output, as we all know, simply by reviewing past drafts. These players don't think of moving because of a lack of opportunity in their "preferred position", they either adapt to a different role because of their versatility or they move on due to the reasons listed above, family, success, money, retirement, delistings, career ending injuries
Of course there will be changes to best 22 in two years, which i highlighted with players Jones and older, along with delistings. Will there be players that want to be traded? Sure, but unless it is for the examples above, most will want to remain to be part of the success.
The players shifting out of GWS suggest you're wrong on this point.
- Mar 20, 2017
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I agree - except that Marchy is a substantially significantly better footballer, no matter how many times some like to try and downplay said ability.
GWS had an extended list compared to other clubs, it was a unique situation, together with a plethora of high picks to ensure competitiveness
So don't think I am wrong at all
It was interesting to read in the Riley Beveridge article on the AFL website that Marchy is in the top 5 runners at the club. Terrific footballer with terrific athleticism. I'm pretty sure we'll create a space for him in the team, when he's ready to go.
- Mar 20, 2017
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And some used it as on opportunity to get "home" from GWS whilst reaping huge contracts which shouldn't be a factor for us. Even then you could argue that GWS were smart enough to keep the ones that they wanted (heart and soul players and good users) and jettison others that they considered expendable with queries over their ball use.
Stamos I am happy to analyze it for you if you can't be bothered, warning though it could/will be TLDR
I see Caleb in direct competition with Plowman for a spot in our defence. Both versatile defenders who can play tall and small. Not sure our backline can carry both of themMy biggest concern with Marchbank is when he has ball in hand. Tends to hold up our defensive rebounds giving the opposition ample time to retreat into their defensive zones and his decision making is average at best. For these reasons would not play him on the wing. His best attribute is his mobility and intercept ability.
JustaBattler
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- May 31, 2012
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Simpson/Murphy/Levi/Kreuzer/Jones/Ed/Betts - all gone over the next 1-3 years ...
That is seven genuine AFL players needing to be replaced over next 3 years and sooner in 1-2 cases.
Serious question marks over a few of the existing players bodies in: Williamson/Marchbank/McCeadie/Cuningham/Charlie - yes Charlie and (hopefully not) Docherty - another 6 question marks / fingers crossed situation...
Known known replacement requirements are big enough concern - and lots of risk in second list ...
My conclusion based on these 'optics' and bearing in mind the fact that our list, once you remove the bi-nodal distribution of age is quite young, leads me to conclude that the only mids of any quality that will be traded are - very few or none- unless they ask to go.
Blokes like Polson/Goddard/Owies/O'Dwyer/Gibbons/McCreadie ... have to show stuff in order to justify spots - fair enough becaue they aren't seen as 'premium' players...
but that the core talent we have put together is unlikely to be changed much in the 20-24 year old group - if their bodies hold up.
The task will be to find replacements for the genuine AFL players we will lose and then back-ups to them - everything looks fine for 2020/21 - gets harder after that.
That is seven genuine AFL players needing to be replaced over next 3 years and sooner in 1-2 cases.
Serious question marks over a few of the existing players bodies in: Williamson/Marchbank/McCeadie/Cuningham/Charlie - yes Charlie and (hopefully not) Docherty - another 6 question marks / fingers crossed situation...
Known known replacement requirements are big enough concern - and lots of risk in second list ...
My conclusion based on these 'optics' and bearing in mind the fact that our list, once you remove the bi-nodal distribution of age is quite young, leads me to conclude that the only mids of any quality that will be traded are - very few or none- unless they ask to go.
Blokes like Polson/Goddard/Owies/O'Dwyer/Gibbons/McCreadie ... have to show stuff in order to justify spots - fair enough becaue they aren't seen as 'premium' players...
but that the core talent we have put together is unlikely to be changed much in the 20-24 year old group - if their bodies hold up.
The task will be to find replacements for the genuine AFL players we will lose and then back-ups to them - everything looks fine for 2020/21 - gets harder after that.
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Will start the ball rolling Stamos. Here is a link to the list changes of 2018 (used 2018 year so we can compare what players have done at a new club)
Retirements, delistings, trades - AFL.com.au
Australian Football League. All the latest AFL news, video, results and information
www.afl.com.au
Of the 186 list changes, (average over 10 per club) 148 were retirements and delistings (no longer on a list). That's just shy of 75%
Of the players that moved to other clubs, apart from suffering from extended injuries at their former club, the majority have not significantly increased their output at their new club and NONE are now playing in their so called "preferred position" I have highlighted 6 players that did increase their number of games. 6 of 186 players, largely fringe players, less than 4 %. It is a non issue for our club or any other club
Daniel Menzel DFA
Darren Minchington DFA
Jarryd Lyons DFA
Jordan Murdoch DFA
Tommy Sheridan DFA
Alex Fasolo FA
Luke Dahlhaus FA
Reece Conca FA
Maverick Weller PSS
Scott Lycett RFA
Tom Lynch RFA
Aaron Hall trd
Anthony Miles trd
Braydon Preuss trd
Chad Wingard trd
Corey Ellis trd
Dan Hannebery trd
Dayne Beams trd
Dean Kent trd
Dom Tyson trd
Dylan Shiel trd
Gary Rohan trd
George Horlin-Smith trd
Jack Hombsch trd
Jack Scrimshaw trd
Jackson Thurlow trd
Jared Polec trd
Jasper Pittard trd
Jesse Hogan trd
Jordan Roughead trd
Kade Kolodashnij trd
Lachie Neale trd
Lincoln McCarthy trd
Marcus Adams trd
Mitch McGovern trd
Nic Newman trd
Rory Lobb trd
Ryan Burton trd
Ryan Clarke trd
Sam Lloyd trd
Sam Mayes trd
Steven May trd
Taylor Duryea trd
Tom Hickey trd
Tom Scully trd
Travis Colyer trd
Tyson Stengle trd
Will Setterfield trd
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Will start the ball rolling Stamos. Here is a link to the list changes of 2018 (used 2018 year so we can compare what players have done at a new club)
Retirements, delistings, trades - AFL.com.au
Australian Football League. All the latest AFL news, video, results and information
Of the 186 list changes, (average over 10 per club) 148 were retirements and delistings (no longer on a list). That's just shy of 75%
Of the players that moved to other clubs, apart from suffering from extended injuries at their former club, the majority have not significantly increased their output at their new club and NONE are now playing in their so called "preferred position" I have highlighted 6 players that did increase their number of games. 6 of 186 players, largely fringe players, less than 4 %. It is a non issue for our club or any other club
That's not quite the same argument, though.
We're talking about highly rated (drafted) players getting squeezed out and deciding to walk. And it is only applicable to Clubs with high numbers of high picks (GWS, who've lost a bunch). Sure injury is a factor of varying degree, but the Giants have lost 1st round 2 year players Kennedy, Setterfield, Bonar, on top of more senior players like Shiel and Smith (who left because he wanted to play mid-field).
No, you are the one twisting what I posted, which i was very clear. Harker stated that players would leave due to a number of reasons, the squeeze (if talent didn't match output of other best 22, which is like any other club) and mainly wanting to play in their "preferred position" which is bizarre and the facts show it is unfounded
- Has nothing to do how draftees are rated, it is how they perform or lack there of which creates that squeeze
- It's not applicable to rebuilding clubs like us, Lions, Hawks, Dogs, etc. GWS had an extended list as did GC, they had to trim there list to come in line with
- Setters was considered best 22, didn't want to lose him, injured, wanted out
- Bonar not considered best 22, injured, wanted out away
- Kennedy was fringe, as he is with us (You feel the same way)
- Shiel back in Melbourne, similar output, same position
- Smith falls into that less than 5% each year
Whoa......that's a lot to go through, so I'll do it one step at a time, as time and will allows.
Thanks for the huge effort though, regardless.
I think it's very much the case as players want to play in the senior team and not to be stifled, waiting for an opening to develop and especially so players that were deemed good enough to be taken in the first round of a draft.
I think Stamos has cut across this point already citing GWS's situation and it's not a bad one to work with, even though as things currently stand we won't be seen to have the midfield depth of a GWS, but that could change as soon as the end of this year.....or at least get much closer given our average midfield plyer is around the 21 year old mark, discounting MMurphy and ECurnow.
Was anyone surprised when Kennedy left GWS? Steele? Setterfield? Bonar? ..and what's going to come about this year? I'd say they'll likely lose another mid or two for one reason or another, as even if Caldwell, Green, O'Hallaran, Hately do get games, some will understand that opportunity and therefore their career, could take a turn for the worse.
Anyway, I can't help seeing what I see and you can't help seeing what you see. Only time will tell though.
You and others are regurgitating the same opinions which I have already addressed.
- The majority of players don't leave to play more games in their so called preferred position as I have highlighted with the 2018 list changes.
- GWS like GC were unique situations, having a plethora of early picks within the same draft, GWS even amassed a large number of talent a year before they entered the competition. Perhaps use clubs that have still lost players that still win flags.
- Dogs lost Griffen, Higgins, Cooney in 2014. Hawks lost Young,Franklin, Ellis, Savage. Didn't have an impact on success or youth
No you are talking about a non existent situation Harks
I have provided the facts based on 2018 list changes, no rebuttal still the, same opinion.
Same goes for the GWS situation which was unique. I provided information of other successful clubs that have lost players, Dogs, Hawks
Another, Tigers that have lost early picks, such as Ellis and Lennon, not because they wanted to play a preferred position, they just weren't good enough even when they were 1st round draftees. Others that were mids like Vlastuin, became flag winning HBFers. They lost Ellis this year, left because he couldn't get a game in a preferred position or money? Doubt they will suffer either way
Happy to move on
It's true that GWS had an extended list which makes them an extreme case. It's also true that in recent years we've been well above the league average at adding high potential (i.e. high draft pick) players, and even more so if you count those we've traded in. I don't think it's unreasonable to look at the GWS experience and expect that we might face a milder version of it in the next few years.
Even assuming that player concerns about position and opportunity don't eventuate, if everyone comes on like we hope then at some point there'll be some tough salary cap decisions to be made. Seems quite likely to me that one or two of the kids we love will end up at another club for one reason or another.
I'm not worried or concerned about this -- I'd much rather have the problem of too many good players than too few. And if I'm wrong and we end up keeping everyone we want to keep, then I'll be pleasantly surprised.
Even assuming that player concerns about position and opportunity don't eventuate, if everyone comes on like we hope then at some point there'll be some tough salary cap decisions to be made. Seems quite likely to me that one or two of the kids we love will end up at another club for one reason or another.
I'm not worried or concerned about this -- I'd much rather have the problem of too many good players than too few. And if I'm wrong and we end up keeping everyone we want to keep, then I'll be pleasantly surprised.
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