List Mgmt. 2020 List Management

[Gethelred]

Don't think so. I think people on here were arguing that we need pick 25 coming back because 9 was too high, but I don't feel like Sydney would ever have made that trade.

Given his current form, if Papley was leaving Carlton, I'd be pretty pissed off with that trade.

He's worth in the 10-15.

2 x first rounders, which some are valuing him at seems a bit overinflated though.

It's overinflated because he's contracted, and the swans are going to need to get either future hope or current ability for him.

If we're willing to wait 2 seasons - for his contract to expire - then we can pay your market price, but his price is only going up the longer he plays as a lone hand in that completely nonexistent forward line.

 

[Blue__Balls]

The extra cost for Papley gets you consistency. I've pointed this out before - he's not a player that will accept being stuck in a forward line not getting the footy. If the ball isn't getting to him, he gets on his bike and wins it up the ground.

2020, kicked goals in every game so far, multiple goals in 3 of them.
2019, kicked goals in 20 out of 22 games, multiple goals in 10 of them.
2018, kicked goals in 13 out of 20 games, multiple goals in 9 of them.

Over the last few seasons, he's become a consistently damaging player, who gets himself involved rather than waiting for the ball to fall his way.

So the question just needs to be - is it worth paying a premium for a player who will have scoreboard impact in 90% of games, instead of paying less for a player who will probably only do so in 50% of games.

Still think there's a bit to work out before we make the decision - chiefly, what are we already sitting on (Honey, Phillips, Cuningham etc.). So we need to find the time this season to really assess those players across a reasonable body of work, and then decide if we go all out for Papley, or if we spend that coin on the midfield and trust the young guys to deliver up forward.

 

[F_therest]

Yeah its a good point re: draft picks - how many high draft picks have we had - one or 2 next year wont make a difference. We need experienced guys who will make us alot better to be traded for.

Ya we can't even fit them all in the team as it is!

Stocker/Kemp/Dow/LOB/Fisher/Marchbank/Curnow all high draft picks to come into the team that beat Geelong on the weekend. Philp debuting. And who's to say our later draft picks don't also force their way into the team down the track like TDK/Honey/BSOS.

We don't really need more right now, trading out our picks for mature guns that can elevate us to a legitimate top 4 chance definitely option A.

 

[F_therest]

Papley is a star and would’ve been great - but don’t forget we turned that pick into Kemp and Philp.

Philp is already receiving rave reviews and debuting well ahead of schedule. He’s rocketed ahead of a number of guys who were picked higher & have been around longer - admittedly not a great reflection on the others, but great for him.

Kemp has an insanely high ceiling. I’m viewing him as an unofficial 2020 top 5 pick PLUS he has the benefit of this whole season + next pre-season to learn and prepare for his 2021 debut. Very rare type of player, we just need him to stay healthy and get the best out of himself.

Could be a blessing in disguise when we reflect in a few years.

Missed out on Papley but netted Philp & Kemp.

Then get Papley the next year at the end of 2020 with draft picks in a compromised draft where recruiters don't get to see much exposed form in the draft pool's final year, making it difficult to be sure of your selection.

 

[F_therest]

Also give any other players that may think about coming to us faith that we will do what it takes to get the deal done. I think this can't be underestimated imo.

If I am choosing between 2-3 clubs and I know one will move heaven and earth to get me, and another only want me at the right price, then it's an easier choice.

Getting players at the right price is good early on in a rebuild because so many prices need to be put into place.

At the back end of a rebuild the price you pay doesn't matter as long as its the right piece/player. I hate to use the term, but, the synergies created by getting the one or two final pieces need into place can be immense.

Think of it like putting a keystone into an archway. Putting that last piece in lets the whole thing support itself.

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Absolutely spot on, and essentially it's following the proven Hawthorn model.

Like them, we've invested heavily in the draft to get our list into a position where it's full of talent and most of the pieces are there already. But now that we've done that, it's time to shift our focus to trading for guns in position of need...which to be fair the club has already been doing the last few years bringing in McGovern & Martin, while chasing Coniglio & Papley hard.

I have every confidence Papley can have the same effect for us as Cameron for Brisbane, and that's so exciting to think about when you also consider the other players we have in our forward line. A mix of Charlie/McKay/Cas/McGovern/JSOS/Martin/Papley/Cunners would be the best forward line on paper in the comp IMO. A shame Eddie won't be a part of it.

 

[HARKER]

Ya we can't even fit them all in the team as it is!

Stocker/Kemp/Dow/LOB/Fisher/Marchbank/Curnow all high draft picks to come into the team that beat Geelong on the weekend. Philp debuting. And who's to say our later draft picks don't also force their way into the team down the track like TDK/Honey/BSOS.

We don't really need more right now, trading out our picks for mature guns that can elevate us to a legitimate top 4 chance definitely option A.

If you assigned a value to a each player in their best position and worked out what total value was required to be a top side, you'd have a plan

It doesn't work that way, but assigning values could be a useful exercise and especially so when moving players around.
i.e. Weitering would still make for a good forward, but to take him away from his comfort zone to the forward line, may net a negative value.
For instance, if he's potentially a 7/10 forward and he's replacing a 5/10 forward, but he was a 9/10 back-man being replaced by a 5/10 back-man, are you really doing it right?

It's like when some got excited about the idea of Docherty playing midfield. I have little doubt, the result would have been a negative net result.
Sometimes, what one player brings to one part of the ground, is of more value than for the Dream Team points may show up.

A balanced team where every player can execute their assigned role to the maximum effect makes sense to me....

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

What about our 2 firsts (2020/2021) with their (2021) 2nd coming back. So you'd guess it would be pick 8-12 going their way and 20-25 coming back?

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I would be also trying to upgrade this years second from them too considering it’ll just be eaten up with an academy kid anyway. We might even throw in our third if list sizes shrink as the draft won’t go deep, giving them more points and not really hurting us as the picks will be running out by then. Just so much to play out. It’ll be interesting if he chooses us. If our first is lower enough that it is before their academy kid is expected then I don’t think he will cost two firsts. Not even close. If it’s later then they expect a nomination I find it hard to see how we get it done.

 

[F_therest]

Whatever the offer was it was agreed upon pedning Danhier being traded. so they did reach an agreement.

Having said that, Jack Martin requested a trade to essendon in 2018 and it didnt happen, came to us the next year. No guarantees Papley will want to join us again next year.

Let's hope it's more a Gibbs & Tim Kelly situation, than a Martin one.

Also i forgot about that, how good is it that Martin's in our colours when he could have been tearing it up for Essendon.

 

[katmanblue]

It's overinflated because he's contracted, and the swans are going to need to get either future hope or current ability for him.

If we're willing to wait 2 seasons - for his contract to expire - then we can pay your market price, but his price is only going up the longer he plays as a lone hand in that completely nonexistent forward line.

They still have Buddy for 4 years and 12 to 16 games

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[katmanblue]

Absolutely spot on, and essentially it's following the proven Hawthorn model.

Like them, we've invested heavily in the draft to get our list into a position where it's full of talent and most of the pieces are there already. But now that we've done that, it's time to shift our focus to trading for guns in position of need...which to be fair the club has already been doing the last few years bringing in McGovern & Martin, while chasing Coniglio & Papley hard.

I have every confidence Papley can have the same effect for us as Cameron for Brisbane, and that's so exciting to think about when you also consider the other players we have in our forward line. A mix of Charlie/McKay/Cas/McGovern/JSOS/Martin/Papley/Cunners would be the best forward line on paper in the comp IMO. A shame Eddie won't be a part of it.

Eddie might end up forward line coach

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[JohnnyFontane90]

Fiorini is no Lyons. Not even close.

Lyons is a stoppage specialist, who I have always considered well undervalued. He is up there with the best pure stoppage players in the league, at least he was when he made the move.

He was a perfect fit for Brisbane and they got him for free.

I see nothing particularly special with Fiorini, and I have never understood the hype. He's not a stoppage or clearance specialist, he's not a tough inside mid. He's far more outside, most of his footy is uncontested, he works hard but he's not quick, he's not a a particularly good kick and he probably never will be.

When you factor in one moved for free and the other would cost a fair bit, there really is no comparison to be made between the two.

I would take Fiorini if he came for free, but he won't, and I'm not giving up anything of any real value to bring him across. He's not what we need and we can do better.

Yes he's more inside than outside but that's just what we need. (mind you his 8.52 contested possessions per game would rank 6th at carlton based on last years numbers). We have a lot of contested 'propsects' coming up anyway but not so many outside mids.

I don't think fiorini is a superstar but he's solid B+ midfielder who can do it on the inside and outside and is from victoria and out of contract a the end of this season. Numbers are pretty similar to jack redden at west coast so maybe that's a better free agent comparison.

And perhaps the best thing about him is he has a vowel at the end of his last name.

 

[FRUMPY]

And perhaps the best thing about him is he has a vowel at the end of his last name.

Could he lend it to Philp?

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

I was more interested in how Martin worked with the other guys in there and how he competed. His physicality was great, hit contested ball at pace and showed excellent willingness to take heavy body contact, he also got to balls and halved contests that a lot of our onballers typically give up on. Tackled well and put in repeat efforts. Had the second most clearances on the ground which at 3 wasn't huge but showed more about our tactics than his abilities. What I also liked was his ability to quickly link up with our ball winners, something else lacking in our midfield, that ability to quickly and successfully transition from attacking to defending. I thought his competing was what stood out and that's what has been lacking badly around the contests and congestion. I felt he added a lot, added what we lack and so badly need to address.

Will be interesting to see how everything is backed up V Essendon this week. I would hope we play at a higher intensity and a physicality that becomes contagious and a standard within the team and blow them away. Excited to potentially seeing the same thing from Philp who I feel is going to blow away a lot of our more mature fringe youngsters when it comes to competing for a spot.

Summed it up perfectly, everything you described is spot on, Martins work rate all game was enormous...

 

[therubbernub]

Eh who cares if it costs draft picks like our first and second...we have plenty of talented kids and papley is a match winner who could make us contenders.

I dont think Brisbane care now about giving up essentially a first and second for neale, or a first for Cameron.

Papley will cost more than cameron because he's shown more than cameron did at Adelaide...he elevated his game once arriving at Brisbane.

A gun wants to join us...he's probably the second best small forward in the comp behind cameron. Arguably just as good. Hes only 23 too.

Cameron learnt his forward craft from eddie. But was in eddies shadow at the crows. Eddie can weave his magic for us and then retire

 

[therubbernub]

But isn’t Pit our best pick up? He is looking good on limited viewing, if he continues to improve and become a locked in ruck, it’s silly to have another ruck of similar age in the twos.

Even though I like the Gov, it’s due to TDKs position now, that it just doesn’t make any sense why we recruited him, TDK would have been able to play as a third tall and chop out in the ruck, it seems this year, he will have to wait for an injury and next year he will have to rely on more injuries as Charlie will hopefully be back.

He looks talented, but where do you see TDK, Charlie and Marchbank, through in Kruz fitting in to this side this year and next?

TDK fills the Levi role when he retires

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

The extra cost for Papley gets you consistency. I've pointed this out before - he's not a player that will accept being stuck in a forward line not getting the footy. If the ball isn't getting to him, he gets on his bike and wins it up the ground.

2020, kicked goals in every game so far, multiple goals in 3 of them.
2019, kicked goals in 20 out of 22 games, multiple goals in 10 of them.
2018, kicked goals in 13 out of 20 games, multiple goals in 9 of them.

Over the last few seasons, he's become a consistently damaging player, who gets himself involved rather than waiting for the ball to fall his way.

So the question just needs to be - is it worth paying a premium for a player who will have scoreboard impact in 90% of games, instead of paying less for a player who will probably only do so in 50% of games.

Still think there's a bit to work out before we make the decision - chiefly, what are we already sitting on (Honey, Phillips, Cuningham etc.). So we need to find the time this season to really assess those players across a reasonable body of work, and then decide if we go all out for Papley, or if we spend that coin on the midfield and trust the young guys to deliver up forward.

He’s not just a specialist forward BB he can actually play midfield too, so we’d be gaining a dangerous duel position player which adds another important layer for our team... I’d also like this year when having Cripps and Martin starting in the centre for us to roll our other youngsters in there with them at times Fisher Cunners Dow Setterfield Jack Gibbons SPS Walsh and see how the different combinations go, Philp and if or when Stocker gets his chance also... Perfect year to experiment for the future, big chance we’ll find some encouraging surprises...

 

[therubbernub]

Agreed. A bit of talk around here about Caldwell, Hateley and a few other young developing midfielders. The only reason I would take one of these types is if the club has formed the view that not enough of our young midfielders (Dow, O’Brien, Setterfield, Fisher, Stocker, Philp, Kemp etc) will become quality AFL players. Otherwise we’re just bringing in more developing players who will not contribute enough in 2021.

The other problem with trading in these types of guys is that we are at a massive information disadvantage compared to the club they are currently at. Take Caldwell for example, he’ll play a few games this year and no doubt continue to show signs. However, that’s pretty much all we’ll see from afar. GWS will be watching him every day in training and how he stacks up vs Coniglio, Kelly, Whitfield, Ward, Greene etc. For comparison, we know what Papley is about because we’ve seen him play 50+ AFL games. Makes the deal very risk for us. And the risk doesn’t seem worth it unless the club has categorically formed views on our young midfielders.

IMO if the GWS rate these 2 they will give them game time this year to test them out. They are more likely to trade one of their gun midfielders (for Giant overs) if they have confidence that these guys are good enough- eg like Shiel with taranto and Hopper coming through.

 

[katmanblue]

Could he lend it to Philp?

Underrated comment

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[Michael Jezz]

If there is one thing I am learning from our gradual list build is don't overpay in trades. Our full draft hand this year is a function of negotiating to underlying value. Tomorrow's game is a test between a side built on trading (Essendon) and one built on drafting (Carlton). Let's see what the result starts to tells us. Essendon's time is now, they would want to win convincingly

 

[Thehurdle]

I see your point.

Think about this though. How many years was Casboult on the list before he became the reliable guy we have today? Who do we have to replace him in 2 years?

If we think of TDK as a Casboult replacement, then waiting another year or two may be required. No point using TDK as trade bait when he will have little currency due lack runs on the board.

The idea of Marchbank being traded is probably more beneficial to us. At the end of the day it's what the other team wants that will dictate value.

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Club thinks TDK will be a star. V reluctant to trade him.

 

[thylacine60]

Papley is a star and would’ve been great - but don’t forget we turned that pick into Kemp and Philp.

Philp is already receiving rave reviews and debuting well ahead of schedule. He’s rocketed ahead of a number of guys who were picked higher & have been around longer - admittedly not a great reflection on the others, but great for him.

Kemp has an insanely high ceiling. I’m viewing him as an unofficial 2020 top 5 pick PLUS he has the benefit of this whole season + next pre-season to learn and prepare for his 2021 debut. Very rare type of player, we just need him to stay healthy and get the best out of himself.

Kemp & Curnow are 2 first rounders coming into the best 22 next year. Fair additions.

 

[The Bighouse]

Kemp & Curnow are 2 first rounders coming into the best 22 next year. Fair additions.

And regular appearances from Philp, Stocker, Dow, LOB...we have the d.e.p.t.h.....of 1st rounders not playing 1’s.

 

[thylacine60]

And regular appearances from Philp, Stocker, Dow, LOB...we have the d.e.p.t.h.....of 1st rounders not playing 1’s.

poty

 

[Blue Razor]

Saad is one we should go for speed on the Half back flank


Star Essendon defender Adam Saad and the club are still are long way off a new deal, reports The Herald Sun.
The speedster is out of contract at the end of the season and there is no indication a deal will be struck in the near future.

 

[Leon Black]

I think if we were to trade two first rounders for Papley we could expect somthing in return, I’d be pretty prepared to give away both first and seconds for the next two year if it mean landing Papley and a high quality mid, we don’t really need anymore youth