List Mgmt. 2020 List Management

[DangerousD]

I didn't put it out there for anyone to have to agree with.
It's my perspective that Papley, the version of him that everyone is presently lusting after, that the club will be paying a significant outlay for, doesn't apply significant fwd 50 pressure - which again, was the point of my initial comment.

We're kidding though if we believe that the teams structures & gameplan aren't dependent on the players that the club has available.

I accept your view on Papley and pressure, the pressure you’re talking about is backed up by the stats, no issues there, what I disagree with and I’m not sure you were saying it, is that he won’t apply pressure if he comes to us, I think he will apply pressure comparative to what he has done in the past.

I definitely agree that teams game plans are built around the cattle they have, ours is built around contested ball and our forward line is built around tall contested marking, I don’t think adding Papley will change that, the same way I think, if Buddy was playing, Papleys role and output would be different.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I guess in the hypotheticals you’re mentioned, I’d value a second rounder more than a 4-5 pick upgrade.
On Witherden, would Brisbane accept a second rounder? he was an early 20s pick and is contracted.

Time will tell guess

We could offer second rounders, but if we do that we're not able to trade our future first, and we still have to give up our first rounder for Papley.

The idea would be to find suitable pick swaps with our first rounders for capable opposition players who may be looking for a new club, so that we get more bang for our buck than just flicking our first rounders for Papley.

Witherden, like McLean, is out of the 22 at the moment. I don't know why, exactly, but Brisbane are playing well so it's not necessarily an indictment on him. I assume the club would have more information, I'm just going off my viewing of him over a few years.

Maybe Brisbane and WB want a second rounder instead. WB more so for the draft points implications. Ultimately though, how hardball can you play with a bloke not getting a game for your club who (I'm projecting here) has asked for a trade to a particular club? They're not gonna do a Gold Coast.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Just as an aside -

GWS are widely regarded as having the best midfield in the league, other than the ruck-man
So far this year, they have not once won the inside forward 50 count and not just lost them, but by a long way.

Maybe the numbers are wrong, but I have 268 for and 368 against.....and this is the best midfield going?
There's something wrong there...surely.

Purely game style.

 

[Arr0w]

Let's just look at it this way -

a. Papley has kicked 19 goals to date and would replace one of Gibbons or Cuningham forward, who have collectively kicked 12 goals so lets's split that down the centre to 6 goals. That's 13 goals in front. Let's now apportion those goals across all games and we find that we win another 2 games, leaving us sitting on 6 wins and 2 losses. Of course it doesn't work that way but we're talking about a huge difference here.

b. Is our midfield going to get better given the depth of young midfielders? Are opposition teams going to clock things up more than we can next year?
If so, which teams can we expect to become so much better than ours?

There's no one simple way but if I had to balance out where I'd prefer the talent, I know where it would be.
The other thing with someone like Papley is that he can lead. We have 2 leaders in the backline, 2 leaders in the midfield but no real leaders forward.
Do we need them? Maybe.

I don't see us having as much a problem at getting the ball forward as I see us maximising our efforts, when in there.
We'll likely get better next year with CCurnow forward but even more likely that at least a couple of the array of mids we have, will take a real step forward.

What a simplistic way of looking at the situation

Stop with the feel and stick to the facts, we don't struggle to kick goals once inside 50, we struggle getting it in there

Swans are a bottom 6 club, why, because they only really have one avenue, and that player has been targetted more than anyone in the AFL. More direct chance, greater possibility to score for Papley, yet they are an average side

We need a quality mid more than a quality forward, IMHO

 

[skadoosh]

Just as an aside -

GWS are widely regarded as having the best midfield in the league, other than the ruck-man
So far this year, they have not once won the inside forward 50 count and not just lost them, but by a long way.

Maybe the numbers are wrong, but I have 268 for and 368 against.....and this is the best midfield going?
There's something wrong there...surely.

Haven't watched them closely TBH, and they certainly have all the big names. Do they play like a team of champions rather than a champion team?

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Papley is a smart, consistent, well-rounded footballer who would be capable of playing in a variety of forward setups.

The attempts to pick holes in his game are very strange. He passes the eye test as being an extremely good player (and is backing it up on the scoreboard).

 

[HARKER]

What a simplistic way of looking at the situation

Stop with the feel and stick to the facts, we don't struggle to kick goals once inside 50, we struggle getting it in there

Swans are a bottom 6 club, why, because they only really have one avenue, and that player has been targetted more than anyone in the AFL. More direct chance, greater possibility to score for Papley, yet they are an average side

We need a quality mid more than a quality forward, IMHO

Are you serious now? 'Get the ball into the forward 50 and things will just take care of themselves'
Yeah right. Like they did with Polson and ECurnow forward, in 2019.
By the way I did say: It doesn't work that way.....

We did this last year and you were wrong. Martin has changed the way things are coming about now, as would be the case for Papley.
If you don't see it, you don't see it. No shame.

 

[skadoosh]

What a simplistic way of looking at the situation

Stop with the feel and stick to the facts, we don't struggle to kick goals once inside 50, we struggle getting it in there

Swans are a bottom 6 club, why, because they only really have one avenue, and that player has been targetted more than anyone in the AFL. More direct chance, greater possibility to score for Papley, yet they are an average side

We need a quality mid more than a quality forward, IMHO

Some interesting stats (is there a stat for I50 disposals per goal? - I can't find one):

 

[skadoosh]

Here's another:

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

What a simplistic way of looking at the situation

Stop with the feel and stick to the facts, we don't struggle to kick goals once inside 50, we struggle getting it in there

Swans are a bottom 6 club, why, because they only really have one avenue, and that player has been targetted more than anyone in the AFL. More direct chance, greater possibility to score for Papley, yet they are an average side

We need a quality mid more than a quality forward, IMHO

Do we struggle to get it inside 50? I have us ranked 5th for inside 50s per game.

We are 3rd in AFL for marks inside 50 but 8th for efficiency inside 50.

What that tells me is we're getting in there enough but we rely on marking to kick goals rather than ground balls and general play which is a small forward issue.

Interestingly the two games where we've had an elite small forward (ie eddie in good form) we've blown bulldogs and geelong off the park. Adding a consistently performing small forward will make us a very formidable side.

 

[skadoosh]

Do we struggle to get it inside 50? I have us ranked 5th for inside 50s per game.

We are 3rd in AFL for marks inside 50 but 8th for efficiency inside 50.

What that tells me is we're getting in there enough but we rely on marking to kick goals rather than ground balls and general play which is a small forward issue.

Interestingly the two games where we've had an elite small forward (ie eddie in good form) we've blown bulldogs and geelong off the park. Adding a consistently performing small forward will make us a very formidable side.

Last few weeks, we've had poor crumbing at the spill of the ball drop in our I50.

 

[HARKER]

Do we struggle to get it inside 50? I have us ranked 5th for inside 50s per game.
We are 3rd in AFL for marks inside 50 but 8th for efficiency inside 50.
What that tells me is we're getting in there enough but we rely on marking to kick goals rather than ground balls and general play which is a small forward issue.
Interestingly the two games where we've had an elite small forward (ie eddie in good form) we've blown bulldogs and geelong off the park. Adding a consistently performing small forward will make us a very formidable side.

Seems to me too that we're fifth for inside 50's and not bottom 6.
Why would someone make stuff up, or were they talking about another year...maybe last year....

Adding quality goal-kickers again makes for common sense, just as it did to the CFC last year when targeting Martin & Betts.
It really doesn't require a lot of imagination.....again.

 

[Red Bull]

Just some thoughts.

Needs :

Pace and elite disposal out of defence.
Options: Williams(FA) O’Brien

Balanced A grade mid with elite disposal.
Options: Kelly

Clever/dynamic goal kicking small forward.
Options: Papley Rosas Hill Spargo Lonie

Obviously Papley is all the rage atm and if we could land him it would be a tremendous, albeit costly acquisition.
That said,
Sydney may simply refuse point blank.
Sydney’s price may be unacceptable.
Papley may not want Carlton now.

I’m leaning a little the other way atm.
As always, GWS are battling the salary cap with Cameron Kelly and Williams to re sign.
The Giants have enormous midfield depth which just might make Cameron and Williams their priorities.
Amazingly, they might be prepared to discuss Kelly with his FA looming in the back of their minds.
GWS would require 2 x 1sts for Kelly with maybe something small coming back.
I’d be happy with our 1st rounder both this year and next.
Hill may be able to be added to the deal in a mega trade but feel it unlikely.

I would then attempt to add Rosas and either Spargo or Lonie.
Rosas was taken this year via the Suns newly gifted NT academy.
He acquitted himself well on the MCG last year in a combined game against Melbourne reserves and has a touch of that something special about him.
He is buried away at the Suns behind Rankine Sexton and Ainsworth, so could be gettable at a bargain basement price.
Spargo or Lonie would surely be attainable for a 2nd rounder and whilst not Papley, in combination with Rosas would give us good small forward coverage sans Betts.

In summary :

Kelly > 20 & 21 1st rounders
Rosas > 4th rounder
Spargo or Lonie > 2nd rounder

2021 :

O’Brien Jones Plowman
Docherty Weitering Williamson
Walsh Cripps Kelly
Martin Curnow Cuningham
Rosas/Spargo/Lonie McKay McGovern

TDK/Pittonet Setterfield Dow

SPS Fisher Kemp Stocker Curnow Philp Marchbank Silvagni Kennedy Honey Gibbons

 

[Arr0w]

Are you serious now? 'Get the ball into the forward 50 and things will just take care of themselves'
Yeah right. Like they did with Polson and ECurnow forward, in 2019.
By the way I did say: It doesn't work that way.....

We did this last year and you were wrong. Martin has changed the way things are coming about now, as would be the case for Papley.
If you don't see it, you don't see it. No shame.

Martin who was training with the forwards and was going to be stationed there all game?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I agree with everyones points on Papley and he'd bring entertainment factor off the charts, but we're clearly sticking to our 3 marking key forward set up.

The question is...

Will quality ball use to those targets be most beneficial to our gameplan....or will accepting we don't have many quality users in the middle and having the 3 of them working on bringing it to ground and surround them with elite smalls?

I just don't see any reason we would have 3 of the most talented talls in the comp and not be having them the focus of our game. Its borderline impossible to defend a 200cm big man on the run getting hit on the chest from the mids

This is simply a question we don't know the answer to imo, Richmond focused on feeding the small forwards, West coast focused on feeding the big talls, we have the opportunity to combine the two styles with Gov Harry and Charlie, and Papley Martin and Gibbo/Cunners.

Time will tell but I know what we'd get from someone like Josh Kelly. I don't know what I'll get from Papley when Charlie Harry and Gov are all firing, yet.

 

[Arr0w]

Some interesting stats (is there a stat for I50 disposals per goal? - I can't find one):
View attachment 922293

View attachment 922295
View attachment 922298

Do differiantials

Then look at each game, scores per inside 50

 

[Arr0w]

Do we struggle to get it inside 50? I have us ranked 5th for inside 50s per game.

We are 3rd in AFL for marks inside 50 but 8th for efficiency inside 50.

What that tells me is we're getting in there enough but we rely on marking to kick goals rather than ground balls and general play which is a small forward issue.

Interestingly the two games where we've had an elite small forward (ie eddie in good form) we've blown bulldogs and geelong off the park. Adding a consistently performing small forward will make us a very formidable side.

Also tells you(vision) that most of our entries are long bombs, rather than players having elite foot skills to hit up a leading target

Edit

Differiantials tell a different story, we are mid table for marks inside 50 and we have a couple of blokes that are great contested marks

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

View attachment 922314

Seems to me too that we're fifth for inside 50's and not bottom 6.
Why would someone make stuff up, or were they talking about another year...maybe last year....

Adding quality goal-kickers again makes for common sense, just as it did to the CFC last year when targeting Martin & Betts.
It really doesn't require a lot of imagination.....again.

To me martin isn't a small forward. He doesn't seem to have the right instincts for it. Flies for marks rather than reading the crumbs and his field kicking is far superior to his goal kicking.

Get Papely and throw martin in the midfield almost full time. Cripps, martin and walsh at centre bounces is a perfect mix.

 

[Arr0w]

Cliff notes:

Trade 10 to WB for 15 and McLean - as it stands, matching a bid for Ugle-Hagan at Pick 1 wipes their entire draft and puts them 400pts in deficit on their 2021 first rounder. Flicking a couple of fringe players would be the obvious solution. McLean a good fit for our needs.

Trade our future first to Brisbane for 18 and Witherden - Brisbane have their own and Port's first rounders, good chance one of them is ~18, they lose a fringe player and a late first in a compromised draft, get a future first in what would presumably be a slightly stronger draft, and roll the dice on us not going deep into finals to ensure that pick is somewhere from 8-14. Witherden a solid, 21yo defender with a low, penetrating kick.

Trade 15 and 18 for Papley. Shuffle late/future picks in whatever way makes it palatable for both clubs.

Swans now have 3, 15, 18, 22. Use 3 at the draft, 15 matches a bid for Campbell, 18 or 22 match a bid for Gulden (depending on where it comes) and the other gets used on a kid. Alternative is they use 3 at the draft, use 22 and their later picks to match a Campbell bid, and potentially miss on Gulden and another draftee in the top 22(ish).

EDIT: Probably should add - in any of these trade scenarios, any minor imbalance could presumably be overcome with later pick swaps.

Well thought out, I like it

Although I am not a huge fan of McLean, nor do I think he is gettable and or the dogs will trade him, for that value anyway

Lions also have a few academy players this year

 

[Blue__Balls]

I agree with everyones points on Papley and he'd bring entertainment factor off the charts, but we're clearly sticking to our 3 marking key forward set up.

The question is...

Will quality ball use to those targets be most beneficial to our gameplan....or will accepting we don't have many quality users in the middle and having the 3 of them working on bringing it to ground and surround them with elite smalls?

I just don't see any reason we would have 3 of the most talented talls in the comp and not be having them the focus of our game. Its borderline impossible to defend a 200cm big man on the run getting hit on the chest from the mids

This is simply a question we don't know the answer to imo, Richmond focused on feeding the small forwards, West coast focused on feeding the big talls, we have the opportunity to combine the two styles with Gov Harry and Charlie, and Papley Martin and Gibbo/Cunners.

Time will tell but I know what we'd get from someone like Josh Kelly. I don't know what I'll get from Papley when Charlie Harry and Gov are all firing, yet.

More than one way to skin a cat.

We could add a gun mid like Kelly and hope that improves our supply.

Or we could add a quality small defender/distributor and start using SPS in the midfield for the same result.

Or we could add a quality small forward and start using Martin through the middle with more regularity for the same result.

I don't much mind which, but for me a combination of small forward (ie. Papley) and small defender (ie. Laird or Witherden) hits two of the three approaches to increase the chance of success, is more achievable/likely than Kelly or Williams, and fits better with our list profile given we'd expect some of Dow, Stocker, O'Brien, Kemp, Fisher etc. to break into the midfield sooner rather than later. We've invested heavily in the midfield for a reason.

Ultimately, it'll probably come down to who is available - so nice to have options.

 

[Arr0w]

View attachment 922314

Seems to me too that we're fifth for inside 50's and not bottom 6.
Why would someone make stuff up, or were they talking about another year...maybe last year....

Adding quality goal-kickers again makes for common sense, just as it did to the CFC last year when targeting Martin & Betts.
It really doesn't require a lot of imagination.....again.

Make stuff up? Haha

Have a look at the differentials before the North game

 

[Arr0w]

Just as an aside -

GWS are widely regarded as having the best midfield in the league, other than the ruck-man
So far this year, they have not once won the inside forward 50 count and not just lost them, but by a long way.

Maybe the numbers are wrong, but I have 268 for and 368 against.....and this is the best midfield going?
There's something wrong there...surely.

And where do they sit on the ladder?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

To me martin isn't a small forward. He doesn't seem to have the right instincts for it. Flies for marks rather than reading the crumbs and his field kicking is far superior to his goal kicking.

Get Papely and throw martin in the midfield almost full time. Cripps, martin and walsh at centre bounces is a perfect mix.

Totally agree.

Martin is our very own TGreene and not a typical small forward at all. Cuningham the same, both are at their best when they’re allowed to roam out of the 50 and get their hands on it. They’re the ones we want delivering it in.

 

[Arr0w]

Papley is a smart, consistent, well-rounded footballer who would be capable of playing in a variety of forward setups.

The attempts to pick holes in his game are very strange. He passes the eye test as being an extremely good player (and is backing it up on the scoreboard).

Very good player and no one should be picking holes, as he doesn't have any, as a forward

It's more about cost and priorities for what I see in our list

Alone, he would improve us dramatically, yet there are other missing pieces, before I see us as a contender for top 4, let alone a flag

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Very good player and no one should be picking holes, as he doesn't have any, as a forward

It's more about cost and priorities for what I see in our list

Alone, he would improve us dramatically, yet there are other missing pieces, before I see us as a contender for top 4, let alone a flag

Would also be very good pinch-hitting through the midfield imo, has good balance and is strong.

But yes, for me personally a line-breaking half-back is almost priority number one. That and another tough/dashing midfielder. Zac Williams come on down!