2020 Predictions

Where will Freo finnish this Season?

  • Top 6

  • Middle 6

  • Bottom 6

  • 50 Point loss to Gold Coast bad

  • 60 Point thrashing of Wet Toast good

  • Port like roller coaster


Results are only viewable after voting.

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TheMcManusNose

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The forward line is a huge concern. Career best goals:
Matt Taberner - 18 (Career average of 1.1 GpG)
Rory Lobb - 29 (Career average of 0.9 GpG)
Jesse Hogan - 47 (Career average of 2.0 GpG)
Cam McCarthy - 35 (Career average of 1.4 GpG)
Michael Walters - 46 (Career average of 1.7GpG)

Of this list Hogan is now out indefinitely, McCarthy is possibly a winger and Walters splits his time between the midfield and forward line and is without a doubt our best forward. Matt Taberner hasn't played more than 17 games in a season before due to form and fitness while Lobb appears to be our break glass in case of emergency ruckman.

The fact we are throwing out names like Colyer as a potential forward makes me sick to my stomach, he should never have been signed on a 3 year deal. Stupid list management by the club.

All of this is matched with a very inexperienced midfield and a backline that has been decimated by injuries (Pearce, Hamling and Wilson) I can't understand how bottom 6 isn't everyone's expectation. Carlton have shown how long rebuilds take and even with one of the most ready made draftee's in history (Sam Walsh) playing last year, a slew of high draft picks and one of the best mids in the game they were still only able to finish 16th last year.

A new coach has come in and will be implementing a new game plan to a very inexperienced group of players, it is unlikely to click quickly. Even with a mature list, minimal injuries and a very experienced coach with a history of making finals when Ross Lyon started with us in 2012 the first half of the year was a bloody tough watch! We won 6 of the first 12 and were able to make finals once things clicked.

Can we as a supporter base really expect anything close to that? That was also a year with a very crap Gold Coast (not that that has changed), GWS, Melbourne and Bulldogs.

If we avoid the bottom 6 it will be a surprise to me.
Agree on the forward line. But I think thankfully with a fit Stuart, a good pre-season from Serong and maybe Henry later in the year we will be spared the nausea induced by Travis Colyer scuttling around the forward 50. Goes without saying Hogan is the big issue.

Agree with bottom six. Apart from GC it is hard to see who is definitively worse than us. Adelaide, Swans, Blues, Saints, Dees all have the potential to be worse but also better.
 

Monument Hills

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if you really want negative, watch for sections of this season (i.e. various games) get cancelled due to COVID19 spread and public policy, meaning it is unlikely that the season will be decided upon 22 games per team. Again, enjoy the girls killing it and the Allstars game as the men's season is probably going to get ugly on a few different levels.
 

dont bowl there

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if you really want negative, watch for sections of this season (i.e. various games) get cancelled due to COVID19 spread and public policy, meaning it is unlikely that the season will be decided upon 22 games per team. Again, enjoy the girls killing it and the Allstars game as the men's season is probably going to get ugly on a few different levels.
Interesting to see what's happening in Italy right now based off a relatively small amount of infections. Around 300 people is the most outside of China but its still a very very small number. I doubt AFL games are cancelled due to coronavirus however it's entirely possible.
 

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Monument Hills

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Interesting to see what's happening in Italy right now based off a relatively small amount of infections. Around 300 people is the most outside of China but its still a very very small number. I doubt AFL games are cancelled due to coronavirus however it's entirely possible.
I doubt the AFL want to cancel games as it is obviously money lost, but they will unlikely get a choice. Italy's govt. is making soccer games be played in the absence of crowds, my conference in Singapore was canned by the SG Ministry of Health, Japan Olympics is also likely to get canned.
 

dont bowl there

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I doubt the AFL want to cancel games as it is obviously money lost, but they will unlikely get a choice. Italy's govt. is making soccer games be played in the absence of crowds, my conference in Singapore was canned by the SG Ministry of Health, Japan Olympics is also likely to get canned.
I understand that it wont be up to the AFL, however the likelihood of cancelled matches inside Australia still remains low.

99.99% sure that the China game is cancelled and played somewhere inside Australia.
 

PurpleEyes

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The argument was never the round 11 cut off, you have chosen round 11 as it suits your narrative. The "myth" as you put it was that Ross would load the team up to reach the bye in decent shape but be utterly cooked upon return. I managed to find the below:

View attachment 830424
I didn't use Round 11 as the cut off.
I used 11 games which is the first half of a 22 game Home and Away season ... which is a logical point.

And are you now suggesting that Freo went worse after the bye round because of Lyon's game plan or coaching?
The myth narrative that I debate is that there is little evidence to support the theory that Lyon's game plan was exhausting causing the players and team to perform worse in the latter part of the season.
It really makes no sense at all to blame his exhausting game plan and then claim that Freo went worse after a weeks rest (bye round).
In fact, Freo have performed very well in the last few weeks prior to the rest week in 2016-2019 (For the last 2 games prior to rest/bye, 5wins from 8games, for the last 5 games prior to rest/bye 9wins from 20games).

So once again, if you look at the statistics in detail, this exhaustive game plan narrative is a myth.
Whereas, if you look at Freo's numbers for 50+ club games for those years, then you see a much better picture of where Freo's list was during those periods of time. That is, due to injuries/form/rebuild, Freo typically had a much more inexperienced team in the latter rounds of the Home & Away seasons for those years. The same would also apply to Gold Coast and Carlton. Because a coach will typically play youth and try game changes once finals hopes have gone. Unless you also think that the Carlton and Gold Coast coaches for 2016-2019 also had an exhausting game plan, then I fail to see the relevance of that. I have never claimed that Freo haven't gone worse in the latter parts of 16-19, quite the opposite ... I am claiming that blaming Lyon for that period and touting some narrative of his game plan causing poorer performances in the latter part of the season simply isn't supported by his other years in coaching. That is, cherry picking a small sample size when Freo were in a rebuild period and making conclusions about the coach is ignorant of the data and statistics available.

Lastly, I often bring up the examples of 2013 & 2015 when Freo rested players in Round 23 of the Home & Away season and got thumped. It was the same coach, same game plan, fresher legs but we got smashed ... why ... because;
In 2013 R23 (71 point loss) we had 8 x 50+ club game players.
Next week we beat Geelong at Kardinia in the QF with 15 x 50+ club game players.
In 2015 R23 (69 point loss) we had 9 x 50+ club game players.
Next week we beat Sydney in the QF with 21 x 50+ club game players.

And once again I remind everyone that no team has won a premiership in the last 20 years with less than 13 x 50+ club game players.
We will have 7 or less in Round 1 of 2020.
 

wayToGo_

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We will have 7 or less in Round 1 of 2020.
Only 7? I count 14.

Fyfe, Walters, Hill, Tucker, Acres, Aish, Blakely, Conca, Colyer, Matera, McCarthy, Lobb, Taberner, Hughes...

Luke Ryan will play his 50th in round 1.

Mundy, Hamling, Pearce, Hogan on the sidelines have all played 50+.

edit - Oh, I've just realised you are still using that weird games only count if they played them with Freo thing. Play on.
 

dont bowl there

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I didn't use Round 11 as the cut off.
I used 11 games which is the first half of a 22 game Home and Away season ... which is a logical point.

And are you now suggesting that Freo went worse after the bye round because of Lyon's game plan or coaching?
The myth narrative that I debate is that there is little evidence to support the theory that Lyon's game plan was exhausting causing the players and team to perform worse in the latter part of the season.
It really makes no sense at all to blame his exhausting game plan and then claim that Freo went worse after a weeks rest (bye round).
In fact, Freo have performed very well in the last few weeks prior to the rest week in 2016-2019 (For the last 2 games prior to rest/bye, 5wins from 8games, for the last 5 games prior to rest/bye 9wins from 20games).

So once again, if you look at the statistics in detail, this exhaustive game plan narrative is a myth.
Whereas, if you look at Freo's numbers for 50+ club games for those years, then you see a much better picture of where Freo's list was during those periods of time. That is, due to injuries/form/rebuild, Freo typically had a much more inexperienced team in the latter rounds of the Home & Away seasons for those years. The same would also apply to Gold Coast and Carlton. Because a coach will typically play youth and try game changes once finals hopes have gone. Unless you also think that the Carlton and Gold Coast coaches for 2016-2019 also had an exhausting game plan, then I fail to see the relevance of that. I have never claimed that Freo haven't gone worse in the latter parts of 16-19, quite the opposite ... I am claiming that blaming Lyon for that period and touting some narrative of his game plan causing poorer performances in the latter part of the season simply isn't supported by his other years in coaching. That is, cherry picking a small sample size when Freo were in a rebuild period and making conclusions about the coach is ignorant of the data and statistics available.

Lastly, I often bring up the examples of 2013 & 2015 when Freo rested players in Round 23 of the Home & Away season and got thumped. It was the same coach, same game plan, fresher legs but we got smashed ... why ... because;
In 2013 R23 (71 point loss) we had 8 x 50+ club game players.
Next week we beat Geelong at Kardinia in the QF with 15 x 50+ club game players.
In 2015 R23 (69 point loss) we had 9 x 50+ club game players.
Next week we beat Sydney in the QF with 21 x 50+ club game players.

And once again I remind everyone that no team has won a premiership in the last 20 years with less than 13 x 50+ club game players.
We will have 7 or less in Round 1 of 2020.
Cool. I forgot the magical 50game mark.

Oh and yes, yes I do think the way Ross worked the group contributed to the deplorable post bye record.
 

PurpleEyes

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Highlighting round 23 dead rubbers before finals as evidence that your argument stacks up is a rare tactic. For good reasons.
The difference is my two R23 games are not my only evidence. Using just those two games would be like only looking at games after the bye in only rebuild seasons and then jumping to conclusions about a coaches game plan being the cause ... and ironically, many of those failed latter season games in 2016-2019 were also dead rubber games.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand that during rebuilds, younger less experienced players are not going to have the engines and match conditioning that your mature experienced players have. So if for whatever reason your team is fielding low numbers of 50+ club game players, you are likely to struggle. This is a fairly obvious stat supported by the last 20+ premiership teams.

Last year I predicted the Bulldogs and Brisbane would struggle to go deep in the finals because of their less than 13 x 50+ club game players. A total of 3 finals games for 3 losses.
GWS made the GF with 16 players and were beaten by Richmond with 17.
GWS, although loaded with talent struggled in their first 4 years ... (with very low 50+ club gamers). Now they have a list with experienced club players and they are seeing some success.
 

Freomaniac

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The forward line is a huge concern. Career best goals:
Matt Taberner - 18 (Career average of 1.1 GpG)
Rory Lobb - 29 (Career average of 0.9 GpG)
Jesse Hogan - 47 (Career average of 2.0 GpG)
Cam McCarthy - 35 (Career average of 1.4 GpG)
Michael Walters - 46 (Career average of 1.7GpG)

Of this list Hogan is now out indefinitely, McCarthy is possibly a winger and Walters splits his time between the midfield and forward line and is without a doubt our best forward. Matt Taberner hasn't played more than 17 games in a season before due to form and fitness while Lobb appears to be our break glass in case of emergency ruckman.

The fact we are throwing out names like Colyer as a potential forward makes me sick to my stomach, he should never have been signed on a 3 year deal. Stupid list management by the club.

All of this is matched with a very inexperienced midfield and a backline that has been decimated by injuries (Pearce, Hamling and Wilson) I can't understand how bottom 6 isn't everyone's expectation. Carlton have shown how long rebuilds take and even with one of the most ready made draftee's in history (Sam Walsh) playing last year, a slew of high draft picks and one of the best mids in the game they were still only able to finish 16th last year.

A new coach has come in and will be implementing a new game plan to a very inexperienced group of players, it is unlikely to click quickly. Even with a mature list, minimal injuries and a very experienced coach with a history of making finals when Ross Lyon started with us in 2012 the first half of the year was a bloody tough watch! We won 6 of the first 12 and were able to make finals once things clicked.

Can we as a supporter base really expect anything close to that? That was also a year with a very crap Gold Coast (not that that has changed), GWS, Melbourne and Bulldogs.

If we avoid the bottom 6 it will be a surprise to me.
I enjoyed reading your post. However...... I dont think the forward line is as bad as what you think it is.

1st off, Lets talk about Jesse Hogan. The bloke is the only guy on the list that is capable of kicking 50 goals in a season. He is gone indefinately. I have already accepted that he wont play a game for us this season.


But then you look at the blokes you mentioned:

Matt Tarberner has kicked 75 goals from 71 games from 2013-2019. He has never played 20 games in 1 season due to injuries, form and playing lots of games in the WAFL. Yeah his highest goal tally is 18 goals. 18 goals and 6 behinds to be exact. There were times he was going to have that break through season only to have his season done by injury.

Rory Lobb Has kicked 77 goals from 89 games. He kicked 29 goals and 16 behinds From 24 games in 2016 and GWS made a Prelim final. He is definately capable of kicking 30-35 goals this year if he plays 20 games. The bloke doesnt need to kick bags of 5 each week just regularly kick 2-3 goals a game.

Cam McCarthy kicked 35 goals in 2015 due to playing as a 2nd tall behind Jeremy cameron. He can easily kick 30-35 goals this year as a 2nd or 3rd tall if the focus is on Lobb and Tarberner.

Walters was Brilliant last season. Kicked 40 goals and 17 behinds from 22 games last season. I expect him to kick around the same amount of goals if he plays all 22 games.

You also forgot one other goal kicker. Brandon Matera.

Brandon Matera finally kicked 30 goals in a season last year from 20 games. He would of done it at least 3 times at gold coast if he wasnt struck down by injury.

You look at his 3 best years at the suns:

-2014: 27 goals and 17 behinds from 16 games.
- 2016: 24 goals and 15 behinds from 17 games
-22 goals and 12 behinds from 10 games.

Had he played 22 games in each of those 3 seasons at the suns, he would of got 30 goals easily on each of those 3 seasons.


Then you said that Travis Coyler playing forward makes you sick to your guts. Well... ok.

Stupid list management getting Travis Coyler on a 3 year deal. We only traded a future 4th rounder for him. Not exactly the worst trade freo has ever done. If this was 1994-2006, we would of offered a top 10 pick to get him.


Overall...... I dont think the forward line is that bad. No way near the worst in the competition
 

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Freomaniac

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Agree on the forward line. But I think thankfully with a fit Stuart, a good pre-season from Serong and maybe Henry later in the year we will be spared the nausea induced by Travis Colyer scuttling around the forward 50. Goes without saying Hogan is the big issue.

Agree with bottom six. Apart from GC it is hard to see who is definitively worse than us. Adelaide, Swans, Blues, Saints, Dees all have the potential to be worse but also better.
Again, I dont think our forward line is that bad. Justin Longmuir has plenty to work with.
 

poshman

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I predict I will hear a heap of fans around me screaming ‘just kick it’ ‘man up man up’ over and over yet fail to see what a zone is while groaning when said player does just kick it and if is turned over...

Besides that - there still isn’t much logic behind a massive drop down the ladder from many of the same posters who were saying it was finals or bust for Lyon.

A ten percent drop due to new coach and game plan should be offset by Logue - Brayshaw - Tucker - Ryan and Cerra etc having another year of development.

I am expecting a 9-11 win season. Which is less that Alcock said we expect as for him it is finals or bust.
I also rate our recent draft as our best in a long time. I think all three draftees plus Sturt will add class at different times this year.
 

tonygeeks

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Unfortunately Freo will not improve

Well what else is news I hear you all saying

While Freo will not improve neither will heaps of other teams !!! in fact a lot of teams will not improve so much that it will in fact ' look ' like Freo has improved but it will just be smoke and mirrors as what will actually have occurred is Freo has not improved at a much slower rate than some of the more moribund teams such as the Hawks , Cats , Roos , Crows etc who will all not improve a lot faster than Freo have not improved

Wether Freo does not improve slowly enough to make the finals is unclear and will mostly be determined by how slowly other teams in our tier such as Port , Blues and Saints etc do not improve

Basically how slowly we can not improve will ultimately determine wether we for all intents and purposes will look to have improved

Even though that will not be the case

Backwards to victory fellows
 

Freomaniac

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Unfortunately Freo will not improve

Well what else is news I hear you all saying

While Freo will not improve neither will heaps of other teams !!! in fact a lot of teams will not improve so much that it will in fact ' look ' like Freo has improved but it will just be smoke and mirrors as what will actually have occurred is Freo has not improved at a much slower rate than some of the more moribund teams such as the Hawks , Cats , Roos , Crows etc who will all not improve a lot faster than Freo have not improved

Wether Freo does not improve slowly enough to make the finals is unclear and will mostly be determined by how slowly other teams in our tier such as Port , Blues and Saints etc do not improve

Basically how slowly we can not improve will ultimately determine wether we for all intents and purposes will look to have improved

Even though that will not be the case

Backwards to victory fellows
I am suprised you havent blame Ross Lyon for our injuries lol

I do remember you were one of the main dockers posters that wanted him gone too.
 

Deathly

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I think at best we will replicate 2019's W/L.

Still need a proper gauge on Longmuir's coaching. I think we'll see a lot of individual improvements - but a new system will potentially push that back again.
 

Vimal Anand

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Look like we are going to finish similar to last year 12 or13 on ladder? There is improvement in our game but some others also improved.By the time our new system click in ,May be season over... but we will have close contest with majority of teams except Richmond,Collingwood? How you guys think?

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Van_Dyke

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at the minute i think the most likely outcome is that we have a season similar to Brisbane's in 2018, who were better than their record suggested (5-17, had 6 games decided by a kick, only won 1 of them) and be set for a big 2021
 

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