Player Watch 2021 AFL National Draft - NOT FOR TRADE DISCUSSION

[Strapping Young Lad]

Let’s stick with a basic rule for this thread, that it’s for draft watch and discussion only.

It’s not for trade hypotheticals, who you think needs to be delisted or traded, how many games you think we will win, some other team will win, how many picks you want in the 1st round or discussion of current HFC players.

It’s about youngsters who are eligible for the draft in 2021.


Key dates to look out for:

• NAB AFL Draft Combine: TBC
• NAB AFL Draft: Wednesday November 24 - Thursday November 25
• NAB AFL Pre-season and Rookie Drafts: Friday November 26

 

[KermitJagger]

It's pretty simple really. A floor comparison is a way to say "what's the worst this guy could be"... There is no point just talking about every player as the next merrett, dusty and danger when a significant portion of top draftees become non-afl standard players.

You obviously don't remember Mitch thorp
Or was it Thorpe?

I'll give you a couple more

Beau Dowler
Sam Bowie
Lachie Hansen
Jarrod Pickett
Patrick mccartin
Josh schace
Kane Lucas
Anthony morabito

And there are a million more.

I've done a lot of analysis on the drafts, and it's KPP that have a high failure rate - typically midfielders taken in the earlier part of the draft average far more games and a higher quality of game than the talls that make up most of your provided list, besides the sole NBA player and Pickett who was drafted far too early as a small forward. Top 5 picked midfielders are generally, at a minimum, successful AFL players.

 

[chopflop]

I've done a lot of analysis on the drafts, and it's KPP that have a high failure rate - typically midfielders taken in the earlier part of the draft average far more games and a higher quality of game than the talls that make up most of your provided list, besides the sole NBA player and Pickett who was drafted far too early as a small forward. Top 5 picked midfielders are generally, at a minimum, successful AFL players.

THats interesting. If thats true we got lucky in 04 with both our talls being generational players. Also says that NM strategy of taking mids at the top of the draft might not be as stupid as many here said

 

[theiaofseed]

THats interesting. If thats true we got lucky in 04 with both our talls being generational players. Also says that NM strategy of taking mids at the top of the draft might not be as stupid as many here said

You have to be in the pool to win the prize, truly elite forwards only come in the first round. North being afraid of DGB and McDonald getting home sick is stunning to stay the least, specially with all the midfield talent already on the list.

Fev is the only player post Pick 13(excluding F/S and pre-selections) to win the Coleman this century.

 

[GinniAndTonic]

You have to be in the pool to win the prize, truly elite forwards only come in the first round. North being afraid of DGB and McDonald getting home sick is stunning to stay the least, specially with all the midfield talent already on the list.

Fev is the only player post Pick 13(excluding F/S and pre-selections) to win the Coleman.

Fraser Gehrig pick 16, but i get what you are saying.

 

[Coathanger]

They really like him and his kicking isn't a big red flag for them. That is just the club board, the list manager is likely to look elsewhere. They might trade it back to Richmond if that is the case, it gets them Goater or Draper with maybe a second back, and Richmond moves up ahead of us to take Ward/Hobbs.

Well they are from Adelaide….Enough said.

 

[Rob R]

Does anyone have any footage of Erasmus?

Listening to the plethora of draft experts, it seems likely our pick 5 (7) is one of;
- Blue chip, hawk loving Josh Ward
- Best skilled in the open draft Josh Rachele
- Modern day prototype mid/forward Neil Erasmus

I wouldn't be surprised if GWS reach for Rachelle and we end up with a choice of Andrew, Ward and Erasmus. Hope we go Ward as the best fit for us.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[chopflop]

Goater at 4?? Doubt it.

I just humbugged Edps who has him going at four. It would definitely open up some possibilities at our pick if he goes that high.

Whispers although if it’s not the crows I don’t think he goes top 10. That how even the draft is after the first 3-4 players expect to see some decent players slip through into the late first round area.

 

[chopflop]

Blake Howes Ladies and Gentlemen.

 

[KermitJagger]

THats interesting. If thats true we got lucky in 04 with both our talls being generational players. Also says that NM strategy of taking mids at the top of the draft might not be as stupid as many here said

As another poster said, if you're gonna get em it's still more likely to be early. They have a higher failure rate in general.

 

[chopflop]

This is interesting.

 

[Books]

People argue about the value of draft picks.

Earlier this week on other forums, fans were hoping their club would not offer first rounders for our players. I looked up the player selected with the pick we gave up for Brian Lake

Brian Lake

Age

43

Ht

195cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

5.3

4star

M

6.5

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

163.0

3star

No current season stats available

D

4.6

1star

K

2.6

1star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

0.6

3star

. Here is that pick, plus the rest of the first round and the entire 2nd round of that draft.

Todd Viney was a father/son selection already locked in, as per the rules of the time.
In all honesty, the only other decent players here are Tim O'Brien

22

Tim O'brien

Age

31

Ht

193cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.1

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.9

4star

MG

163.8

3star

D

5.9

1star

K

4.4

2star

HB

1.4

1star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.1

3star

MG

119.4

2star

D

7.2

2star

K

3.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

MG

307.0

5star

and Kamdyn McIntosh

33

Kamdyn Mcintosh

Age

31

Ht

191cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.8

4star

K

9.9

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

3.7

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

13.8

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

5.4

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.2

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

18.6

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

6.0

4star

M

5.8

5star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.4

4star

..
My point is, the draft is speculative and unpredictable. I am so glad Hawthorn was willing to trade picks for players while we were in the window. I think other clubs lack courage when they refuse to do the same.


21. WESTERN BULLDOGS: NATHAN HROVAT, 18, Northern Knights (Vic), midfielder, 175cm, 79kg
22. SYDNEY SWANS: DEAN TOWERS, 22, North Ballarat Roosters (Vic), midfielder, 189cm, 83kg
23. BRISBANE LIONS: MARCO PAPARONE, 18, East Fremantle (WA), forward, 194cm, 84kg

ROUND 2
24. ST KILDA: NATHAN WRIGHT, 18, Dandenong Stingrays (Vic), defender, 184cm, 78kg
25. ST KILDA: SPENCER WHITE

Spencer White

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.0

1star

K

3.5

1star

HB

2.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.0

5star

No current season stats available

D

6.0

2star

K

3.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.0

5star

, 18, Western Jets (Vic), forward, 195cm, 84kg
26. MELBOURNE: JACK VINEY, 18, Casey Scorpions (Vic), midfielder, 178cm, 80kg, (father-son selection)
27. GWS: JAMES STEWART, 18, Sandringham Dragons (Vic), forward/defender, 198cm, 80kg

28. HAWTHORN: TIM O'BRIEN, 18, Glenelg (SA), forward, 193cm, 80kg
29. PORT ADELAIDE: TOM CLUREY, 18, Murray Bushrangers (Vic), defender, 192cm, 83kg
30. PORT ADELAIDE: MASON SHAW, 18, South Fremantle (WA), forward/ruck, 198cm, 86kg
31. RICHMOND: KAMDYN MCINTOSH, 18, Peel Thunder (WA), defender, 192cm, 85kg
32. BRISBANE LIONS: MICHAEL CLOSE, 18, North Ballarat Rebels (Vic), forward, 196cm, 84kg

33. RICHMOND: LIAM MCBEAN, 18, Calder Cannons (Vic), ruckman/defender, 203cm, 86kg
34. ESSENDON: JASON ASHBY, 18, Oakleigh Chargers, Vic, defender, 186cm, 76kg
35. CARLTON: TOM TEMAY, 18, Sandringham Dragons (Vic), defender/midfielder, 179cm, 74kg
36. FREMANTLE: TANNER SMITH, 18, North Ballarat Rebels (Vic), defender, 195cm, 87kg
37. NORTH MELBOURNE: BEN JACOBS, 20, Port Adelaide (SA), defender, 185cm, 82kg

38. COLLINGWOOD: JACKSON RAMSAY, 17, East Perth (WA), defender, 183cm, 77kg
39. FREMANTLE: MAX DUFFY, 19, East Fremantle (WA), forward, 184cm, 76kg
40. ST KILDA: BRODIE MURDOCH, 18, Glenelg (SA), forward, 187cm, 86kg
41. NORTH MELBOURNE: MASON WOOD, 19, Geelong Falcons (Vic), forward, 192cm, 79kg
42. RICHMOND: MATTHEW McDONOUGH, 18, Woodville-West Torrens (SA), forward, 179cm, 83kg

43. ST KILDA: JOSH SAUNDERS, 18, Geelong Falcons (Vic), midfielder, 183cm, 88kg
44. SYDNEY SWANS: HARRISON MARSH, 18, East Fremantle (WA), defender, 189cm, 81kg

 

[Adrian Dodoro]

I reckon Mac Andrew at 5 makes sense. Here's why:

1. We are not looking at immediate success in 2022. We're talking, what, 2024 at earliest for a decent tile.
2. Based on the above, by the time we are there, Big Boy will be gone, so we'd be wanting another ruck on the list.
3. This trade period we lost 1 ruck, plus another who was a capable pinch hitter.
4. Accepted wisdom is that bigger players take longer to develop.
5. We are not going to be getting JHF or Callaghan, who from all accounts are the two standout mids this year. If for some reason one of them falls through to 5, then the above 4 points are moot.

So if we are as a club taking a 3-5 year view, and looking to put together a period of sustained success, for mine Mac Andrew makes a lot of sense at 5.

Disclaimer: there's a reason I'm not involved in recruiting or list management for an AFL club

Here is the thing, our midfield is not in shambles like everyone makes it out to be. But yes, we could use some tidy disposal and pace.

Use pick 5 on Mac Andrew.

Chesser, Goater, Taylor - one will be there at 21 or even 24. One or two of them is all our midfield stocks need.

Mac Andrew could be an AA chf OR an AA ruck. I was a total Luke Jackson doubter, now that I have seen how wrong I was - Andrew shows so much of what Jackson showed at the u19 level.

 

[The Chad and I]

THats interesting. If thats true we got lucky in 04 with both our talls being generational players. Also says that NM strategy of taking mids at the top of the draft might not be as stupid as many here said

Incredibly lucky.
Just look at what happened with the other two talented KPP we took in the first round in Dowler and Thorpe.

 

[chopflop]

Here is the thing, our midfield is not in shambles like everyone makes it out to be. But yes, we could use some tidy disposal and pace.

Use pick 5 on Mac Andrew.

Chesser, Goater, Taylor - one will be there at 21 or even 24. One or two of them is all our midfield stocks need.

Mac Andrew could be an AA chf OR an AA ruck. I was a total Luke Jackson doubter, now that I have seen how wrong I was - Andrew shows so much of what Jackson showed at the u19 level.

I also really like Andrew. There are things he can do that other players his size just can't. That being said, he just doesn't feel like a Hawthorn type pick to me. Don't know why, but just think the recruiters are going to want a meat and potatoes 200game selection and not the high risk high reward type. Can't wait for the draft tbh

 

[Davo-27]

Here is the thing, our midfield is not in shambles like everyone makes it out to be. But yes, we could use some tidy disposal and pace.

Use pick 5 on Mac Andrew.

Chesser, Goater, Taylor - one will be there at 21 or even 24. One or two of them is all our midfield stocks need.

Mac Andrew could be an AA chf OR an AA ruck. I was a total Luke Jackson doubter, now that I have seen how wrong I was - Andrew shows so much of what Jackson showed at the u19 level.

it was obvious Jackson was a star in the making in the u18's champs, i had us taking him in a phantom i did a month or so before the 2019 draft(not the popular opinion at the time), but he went much earlier to Melbourne, Andrew is more Mabior Chol than Jackson imo, very raw and has great athleticism, but it is flash in the pan type stuff and not dominating like Jackson has been throughout his career as a junior and in the AFL(but i could be wrong and he could develop into that type, i just like a more certain types with good mentals(determination, leadership, dominance which you can tell from the way they play usually) than just pure athleticism and hope that he comes good.

 

[daniel23]

Andrew doesn't have anywhere near the competitiveness of Jackson. He's an interesting prospect no doubt but has he shown enough for us to take a punt with 5 ?. If we had a couple top 10 picks I'd take the risk.

 

[Burtman]

Yeah pass on Mac andrew at 5, averaging 12 touches, 12 hitouts and .3 goals per game at under 18 level. Doesn’t really scream top 5 pick. Think people are getting abit too carried away with highlights packages and not what he does week in week out

 

[JaegarTime]

Any doubt that JHF is the best in the draft just got swept away…

 

[Blackhawk42]

Blake Howes Ladies and Gentlemen.

Would take a punt if he fell into the fourth round. Just worried he is a bit of a Jarrod Brander type. Tall, athletic utility who doesn't excel anywhere.

 

[Blackhawk42]

People argue about the value of draft picks.

Earlier this week on other forums, fans were hoping their club would not offer first rounders for our players. I looked up the player selected with the pick we gave up for Brian Lake. Here is that pick, plus the rest of the first round and the entire 2nd round of that draft.

Todd Viney was a father/son selection already locked in, as per the rules of the time.
In all honesty, the only other decent players here are Tim O'Brien and Kamdyn McIntosh..
My point is, the draft is speculative and unpredictable. I am so glad Hawthorn was willing to trade picks for players while we were in the window. I think other clubs lack courage when they refuse to do the same.


21. WESTERN BULLDOGS: NATHAN HROVAT, 18, Northern Knights (Vic), midfielder, 175cm, 79kg
22. SYDNEY SWANS: DEAN TOWERS, 22, North Ballarat Roosters (Vic), midfielder, 189cm, 83kg
23. BRISBANE LIONS: MARCO PAPARONE, 18, East Fremantle (WA), forward, 194cm, 84kg

ROUND 2
24. ST KILDA: NATHAN WRIGHT, 18, Dandenong Stingrays (Vic), defender, 184cm, 78kg
25. ST KILDA: SPENCER WHITE, 18, Western Jets (Vic), forward, 195cm, 84kg
26. MELBOURNE: JACK VINEY, 18, Casey Scorpions (Vic), midfielder, 178cm, 80kg, (father-son selection)
27. GWS: JAMES STEWART, 18, Sandringham Dragons (Vic), forward/defender, 198cm, 80kg

28. HAWTHORN: TIM O'BRIEN, 18, Glenelg (SA), forward, 193cm, 80kg
29. PORT ADELAIDE: TOM CLUREY, 18, Murray Bushrangers (Vic), defender, 192cm, 83kg
30. PORT ADELAIDE: MASON SHAW, 18, South Fremantle (WA), forward/ruck, 198cm, 86kg
31. RICHMOND: KAMDYN MCINTOSH, 18, Peel Thunder (WA), defender, 192cm, 85kg
32. BRISBANE LIONS: MICHAEL CLOSE, 18, North Ballarat Rebels (Vic), forward, 196cm, 84kg

33. RICHMOND: LIAM MCBEAN, 18, Calder Cannons (Vic), ruckman/defender, 203cm, 86kg
34. ESSENDON: JASON ASHBY, 18, Oakleigh Chargers, Vic, defender, 186cm, 76kg
35. CARLTON: TOM TEMAY, 18, Sandringham Dragons (Vic), defender/midfielder, 179cm, 74kg
36. FREMANTLE: TANNER SMITH, 18, North Ballarat Rebels (Vic), defender, 195cm, 87kg
37. NORTH MELBOURNE: BEN JACOBS, 20, Port Adelaide (SA), defender, 185cm, 82kg

38. COLLINGWOOD: JACKSON RAMSAY, 17, East Perth (WA), defender, 183cm, 77kg
39. FREMANTLE: MAX DUFFY, 19, East Fremantle (WA), forward, 184cm, 76kg
40. ST KILDA: BRODIE MURDOCH, 18, Glenelg (SA), forward, 187cm, 86kg
41. NORTH MELBOURNE: MASON WOOD, 19, Geelong Falcons (Vic), forward, 192cm, 79kg
42. RICHMOND: MATTHEW McDONOUGH, 18, Woodville-West Torrens (SA), forward, 179cm, 83kg

43. ST KILDA: JOSH SAUNDERS, 18, Geelong Falcons (Vic), midfielder, 183cm, 88kg
44. SYDNEY SWANS: HARRISON MARSH, 18, East Fremantle (WA), defender, 189cm, 81kg

Classic Carlton taking a bloke in the early 30's who I've literally never heard of. I can remember each and every other player on that list but Temay.
Was it the year after they selected Blaine Boekhurst and Dillon Viojo-Rainbow with first two selections?

 

[itsEdwardo]

Ben Hobbs yes please. I hope we take him.

 

[MC_9]

I feel like Mac Andrew is an icing player, for a team that is already well stocked up on young talent. That's why I think he will be a good pick at GWS or GC.

He could be anything, but that is not necessarily a good thing. As he may play less then 50 games and be delisted. He is highly rated for his physical attributes at this stage, but he isn't a dominant footballer.

He is a big risk at pick 5, and would much rather target a gun midfielder to really be hitting their peak once our senior players are stepping aside. I am hoping we take Ward, as we could do with a highly skilled ball winning mid.

On SGP611 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Yardie]

This is interesting.

Didn't realise he was a Shark's boy! Thought it was interesting that Richo said he'd take him after his questioning.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Any doubt that JHF is the best in the draft just got swept away…

I have found it bewildering all this year that anyone would suggest he would be behind Daicos in an open draft.

He has Hodge-like presence and intensity.

10 minutes of highlight, 10 minutes.

 

[TylerDurden]

I have found it bewildering all this year that anyone would suggest he would be behind Daicos in an open draft.

He has Hodge-like presence and intensity.

He's the best kid I've seen.