AFL 2021 AFL Round 4

[srobbo]

McDonald
Papley
Stringer

All 2+

$11.80 Lads

All other books $4-5....gagf

 

[Ohh Ok]

2u - Essendon +28.5 - $1.91 - 365
How often does a team go into a game as this heavy underdogs after a 75 point win? Happy to back against the Swans here who have been playing at a very high level for an inexperienced side. Although they’ve been impressive I think they’ll be vulnerable to underperforming at times this years. Essendon have been strengthened by the return of Stringer last week who looks to have created strong targets with inform Hooker, whilst they’ll also enjoy the return of their leader in Heppell. I’m willing to write off their round 1 and 2 performances as excuses can be made and focus on the sheer effort and hunger they displayed over the Saints on the weekend. They’re currently ranked 3rd in disposals, 3rd in contested possessions, 2nd in tackles, 4th in opponent clangers. Expecting this sort of pressure to create issues for the swans.

2.5u - Logan McDonald 2+ goals - $1.87 - PointsBet
I think the big man has flown under the radar a bit after actually having a cracking start to the season kicking 3.1, 2.1, 2.2. Great matchup coming up against Essendon who give up the second most marks inside forward 50, and I think he benefits from the inclusion of Buddy Franklin which now makes him fall further down the pecking order in terms of defenders. Is primed and ready to play with the big boys after kicking 21 goals from 9 games in the WAFL as an 18 yo. One to watch for the future.

1.5u - Waterman 2+ goals - $3.75 - SB
0.8u - Waterman 3+ goals - $11 - SB
0.2u - Waterman 4+ goals - $36 - SB
Another WAFL product. Kicked 19 from 9 home and away games last year and then 7 in two finals games. Waterman is a mature body at the age of 24. Kicked 2.2 last week in his debut and is looking to really grab hold of the chance to play AFL. Should spend majority of his time close to goal and love his chance to kick a couple snags a couple on some quick turnovers in what should be a high scoring match.

 

[Nuggetz]

For all the degens, its sunny af in syd atm

 

[5 Bucks]

Lance averages 4.375 goals Vs the Bombers over his career, the most Vs any opponent.

 

[iluvparis]

For all the degens, its sunny af in syd atm

It also rained 30 mls overnight.

 

[Nuggetz]

It also rained 30 mls overnight.

Won't take long to dry out.

 

[burge13]

Sportsbet are taking the ******* piss with some of the odds their offering. Horrible.

Only changes when people's behaviour does. If people are still betting poison odds, they'll still put them up...

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Waterman, Warner, Logan all 2+ @ $34 (boosted) with Lads.

Last week all three kicked two goals.

And they all had three or four shots on goal (Waterman 2.2, Warner 2.1, Logan 2.2)

 

[chrisdon16]

NM ADE - o180.5

$1.90 Topsport

 

[chrisdon16]

How often does a team go into a game as this heavy underdogs after a 75 point win?

Was good to see them play well but think the bookies have taken into account how pathetic the saints were last week. Worst pressure stats for a decade or something. Have to look at how they went vs a good team (Port).

 

[NYRB]

Waterman, Warner, Logan all 2+ @ $34 (boosted) with Lads.

Last week all three kicked two goals.

And they all had three or four shots on goal (Waterman 2.2, Warner 2.1, Logan 2.2)

I tailed you there

 

[SirBont]

Was good to see them play well but think the bookies have taken into account how pathetic the saints were last week. Worst pressure stats for a decade or something. Have to look at how they went vs a good team (Port).

hey mate you seem pretty experience in afl punting is there any good website that help you look at all data and stuff like the form I have found a few but hard to navigate

 

[BloodRet]

Heeney buddy for 4+ 2.50 pointsbet for some free cash

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Heeney buddy for 4+ 2.50 pointsbet for some free cash

Cheers bro.

 

[kicksome]

Heeney buddy for 4+ 2.50 pointsbet for some free cash

I also don't mind their promo:
$3 FOR WALSH & CRIPPS TO COMBINE FOR 55+ DISPOSALS
will go close for sure. They have an averaged combined total of 60 disposals so far for the year

 

[chrisdon16]

Heeney buddy for 4+ 2.50 pointsbet for some free cash

That's Shaq'in easy

 

[GROTTO]

2u - Essendon +28.5 - $1.91 - 365

2.5u - Logan McDonald 2+ goals - $1.87 - PointsBet

1.5u - Waterman 2+ goals - $3.75 - SB
0.8u - Waterman 3+ goals - $11 - SB
0.2u - Waterman 4+ goals - $36 - SB

 

[chrisdon16]

Bulldogs -11.5

 

[5 Bucks]

Round 1 - Bailey 3, McCarthy 2, Daniher 2
Round 2 - Tex 6, McAdam 4
Round 3 - Lynch 3, Castagna 2, Rioli 2

Key forwards doing ok vs Swans so we'll lock in Hooker for 2.
Plenty of speed about the others listed and Tippa is a slippery customer so looks good for 2.
Players with McSurnames kicking multiples in 2/3 backs up the Tippa bet, might get on for 3.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2u - Essendon +28.5 - $1.91 - 365
How often does a team go into a game as this heavy underdogs after a 75 point win? Happy to back against the Swans here who have been playing at a very high level for an inexperienced side. Although they’ve been impressive I think they’ll be vulnerable to underperforming at times this years. Essendon have been strengthened by the return of Stringer last week who looks to have created strong targets with inform Hooker, whilst they’ll also enjoy the return of their leader in Heppell. I’m willing to write off their round 1 and 2 performances as excuses can be made and focus on the sheer effort and hunger they displayed over the Saints on the weekend. They’re currently ranked 3rd in disposals, 3rd in contested possessions, 2nd in tackles, 4th in opponent clangers. Expecting this sort of pressure to create issues for the swans.

2.5u - Logan McDonald 2+ goals - $1.87 - PointsBet
I think the big man has flown under the radar a bit after actually having a cracking start to the season kicking 3.1, 2.1, 2.2. Great matchup coming up against Essendon who give up the second most marks inside forward 50, and I think he benefits from the inclusion of Buddy Franklin which now makes him fall further down the pecking order in terms of defenders. Is primed and ready to play with the big boys after kicking 21 goals from 9 games in the WAFL as an 18 yo. One to watch for the future.

1.5u - Waterman 2+ goals - $3.75 - SB
0.8u - Waterman 3+ goals - $11 - SB
0.2u - Waterman 4+ goals - $36 - SB
Another WAFL product. Kicked 19 from 9 home and away games last year and then 7 in two finals games. Waterman is a mature body at the age of 24. Kicked 2.2 last week in his debut and is looking to really grab hold of the chance to play AFL. Should spend majority of his time close to goal and love his chance to kick a couple snags a couple on some quick turnovers in what should be a high scoring match.

Cashing out the Essendon +28.5 and backing +29.5 at $1.90 for 2u on TAB

 

[GROTTO]

Cashing out the Essendon +28.5 and backing +29.5 at $1.90 for 2u on TAB

That line is only going to move out even further as we approach game time.

 

[burge13]

That line is only going to move out even further as we approach game time.

I agree but not sure it should?

Swans have great foot skills which surely diminish slightly on a smaller ground with less space. Wet ground from earlier rain?

I have no skin in this game but I'd be tempted by a 6+ goal line if it got there (doubt it moves that far tbf)

 

[Ohh Ok]

Was good to see them play well but think the bookies have taken into account how pathetic the saints were last week. Worst pressure stats for a decade or something. Have to look at how they went vs a good team (Port).

Port at Adelaide Oval is turning into one of the toughest games in the comp I’d say. Can make the argument that they were decimated by injuries throughout the game also. A bit contextual but Sydney closed at -23.5 vs the crows a few weeks back. I love the crows and what they’ve been doing, but I think you can make a strong case that Essendon shouldn’t start bigger underdogs?

 

[GROTTO]

I agree but not sure it should?

Swans have great foot skills which surely diminish slightly on a smaller ground with less space. Wet ground from earlier rain?

I have no skin in this game but I'd be tempted by a 6+ goal line if it got there (doubt it moves that far tbf)

I think once there is no late changes, that line moves out.

I think the betting public will move that line out later in the day.

I think Dons should cover a line of 5 goals.

 

[Ohh Ok]

That line is only going to move out even further as we approach game time.

I’m not 100% sure it will. I think we’ll see some sharp money on the Dons. We’ll see I guess. Unfortunately don’t have the time to sit and watch lines today