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Prediction 2021 Consensus Best 22 [DONE FOR ANOTHER YEAR]

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Best 22
    • Matty411

    Matty411

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    Sep 21, 2012
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    The Carlton Consensus Best 22 is BACK
    Welcome to the returning regulars and to the newcomers who may be stumbling across this for the first time.

    This post will not be short, but I will get to the point. I’m here to save your boredom; rescue you from the postseason blues and help deliver you a groupthink team that Teague and the Coaches will absolutely use as a key part of their thinning going into Season 2021 (okay… not really. But I’m sure they’d at least peek at it, right?)

    2020 was a year like no other in our living history, culminating in a strange, disjointed postseason that means we now have Eddie Betts - a Carlton legend - finishing his career on the ‘rookie list’. We also have some super exciting new recruits who will push for selection right away. Good times at Ikon Park.

    To date, we’ve had 10 changes to the list for season 2021.

    Players who have moved on: Kade Simpson, Matthew Kreuzer, Darcy Lang, Finbar O’Dwyer, Ben Silvagni, Hugh Goddard, Callum Moore, Harrison Macreadie, Cam Polson and Fraser Phillips.

    We also welcome the following players to our selection mindset for the upcoming year: Zac Williams, Adam Saad, Lachie Fogarty as well as some soon-to-be-welcomed draftees.

    So, before we begin I’d like to reorient you all to the way this will happen, as well as providing you some past data to chew on.

    The Rules
    We will be choosing the best available 22 players to hypothetically line up for Round 1, 2021 against the (presumably) Tigers at the MCG – essentially, our best starting team on paper. We’ll go through each area of the ground: first the midfield; then the backs; then our forwards; our starting ruck; and finally the final makeup of our bench and emergencies.

    As always, we have to use a few assumptions as guides:

    1. All players will be fit and eligible for the round one side, this includes Charlie, Harry, Caleb & Brodie (hopefully no one else deserves mention here).
    2. We will need a healthy balance of players in each part of the ground i.e. balance of talls/smalls to make a realistic starting side.
    3. There are no indiscretions among players leading to disqualification from selection
    4. Any player on the list at present are eligible for selection. If some are missing, it may be due to lack of polling slots or the fact they're not (or were not) on our list at the commencement of voting.
    5. You should independently choose who you believe will be the best players in each respective position to help us win Round 1 against the old enemy – and likely to continue to be a big part of our team for 2021.

    Voting
    1. First, we will vote for the 5 starting midfielders (including wings) and your rotation player for bench spot #1 (SIX TOTAL - VOTE COMPLETE)
    2. Then we will vote for the 6 starting defenders and your rotation player who will take bench spot #2 (SEVEN TOTAL - VOTE COMPLETE)
    3. We will then adjourn for a brief vote to decide our starting ruckman (JUST THE ONE - VOTE COMPLETE)
    4. Next, we will vote for our 6 starting forwards and one rotation player for bench spots #3 (SEVEN TOTAL - VOTE COMPLETE)
    5. In another break from tradition and in what will surely create heated discussion, we will then vote for the final bench spot and position in our 22 - able to make this vote knowing our Best 21 and the positional mix of the side. Players who receive multiple votes in any previous area of the ground will be eligible for this vote
    6. We’ll then put an open vote to decide the emergencies (with priority going to those who earned vote/s previously - in the case of lack of space) (VOTE COMPLETE)

    NB:     Players will be ruled out for following position/s once they are successful in a particular area of the ground (of account of us not being able to have two of the same player).

    Consensus 2021 Line up
    FB: L. Plowman (127) - L. Jones (130) - A. Saad (130)
    HB: S. Docherty (130) - J. Weitering (130) - T. Williamson (97)
    C: S. Walsh (152) - E. Curnow (121) - Z. Williams (144)
    HF: Z. Fisher (117) - H. McKay (133) - J. Martin (129)
    FF: M. McGovern (68) - C. Curnow (108) - E. Betts (87)
    R: T. De Koning (86) - P. Cripps (156) - W. Setterfield (151)
    I: S. Petrevski-Seton (49) - C. Marchbank (77) - J. Silvagni (61) - M. Murphy (31)
    EMG: L. Casboult (38), M. Gibbons (28), D. Cuningham (24), N. Newman (22)

    Now, for those who wish for a little extra light reading...

    The Carlton Consensus Evolution
    Brackets ( ) denote amounts of votes received in a given year.

    Consensus 2018 Line up
    FB: Ciaran Byrne (98) - Liam Jones (156) - Lachie Plowman (161)
    HB: Caleb Marchbank (164) - Jacob Weitering (156) - Kade Simpson (150)
    C: Sam Petrevski-Seton (175) - Ed Curnow (157) - Marc Murphy (175)
    HF: Charlie Curnow (150) - Levi Casboult (108) - Jarrod Pickett (143)
    FF: Matthew Wright (119) - Harry McKay (101) - Jack Silvagni (135)
    R: Matthew Kreuzer (181) - Patrick Cripps (183) - Matthew Kennedy (177)
    I: Tom Williamson (76) - David Cuningham (67) - Zac Fisher (64) - Paddy Dow (67)
    EMG: Darcy Lang (66) - Jarrod Garlett (39) - Aaron Mullett (19)

    Actual 2018 Line up
    B: Kade Simpson, Liam Jones, Caleb Marchbank
    HB: Dale Thomas, Jacob Weitering, Lachie Plowman
    C: Aaron Mullett, Patrick Cripps, Marc Murphy
    HF: Zac Fisher, Levi Casboult, Jarrod Garlett
    F: Matthew Wright, Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni
    FOL: Matthew Kreuzer, Matthew Kennedy, Sam Petrevski-Seton
    I/C: Ed Curnow, Ciaran Byrne, Paddy Dow, Jed Lamb
    EMG: David Cuningham, Cameron Polson, Harry McKay, Cameron O'Shea

    Differences to Consensus 22 (4)
    Named in Round 1: Thomas, Mullett, Garlett, Lamb
    Didn’t make the cut: Pickett, Cuningham (EMG), McKay (EMG), Williamson
    -------------------------------------------------

    Consensus 2019 Line up
    FB: Lachie Plowman (121) - Liam Jones (110) - Kade Simpson (146)
    HB: Tom Williamson (105) - Jacob Weitering (150) - Caleb Marchbank (151)
    C: Marc Murphy (99) - Ed Curnow (104) - Zac Fisher (118)
    HF: Mitch McGovern (147) - Charlie Curnow (149) - S. Petrevski-Seton (114)
    FF: Will Setterfield (53) - Harry McKay (149) - Alex Fasolo (116)
    R: Matthew Kreuzer (132) - Patrick Cripps (152) - Paddy Dow (144)
    I: Nic Newman (87) - Matthew Kennedy (87) - Jarrod Pickett (51) - Sam Walsh (40)
    EMG: Lochie O'Brien (17) - Dale Thomas (8) - David Cuningham (6) - Tomas Bugg (2)

    Actual 2019 Lineup
    B: Jarrod Garlett, Liam Jones, Lachie Plowman
    HB: Kade Simpson, Jacob Weitering, Nic Newman
    C: Marc Murphy, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Zac Fisher
    HF: Michael Gibbons, Charlie Curnow, Sam Walsh
    F: Ed Curnow, Mitch McGovern, Harry McKay
    Foll: Andrew Phillips, Patrick Cripps, Paddy Dow
    Int: Dale Thomas, Will Setterfield, Alex Fasolo, David Cuningham
    Emg: Cameron Polson, Lochie O'Brien, Levi Casboult, Matthew Lobbe

    Differences to Consensus 22 (5)
    Named in Round 1: Garlett, Thomas, Phillips, Fasolo, Cuningham
    Didn’t make the cut: Marchbank, Williamson, Kreuzer, Kennedy, Pickett
    -------------------------------------------------

    Consensus 2020 Line up
    FB: Lachie Plowman (97%), Liam Jones (99%), Kade Simpson (78%)
    HB: Sam Docherty (97%), Jacob Weitering (99%), Caleb Marchbank (74%)
    C: Sam Walsh (99%), Patrick Cripps (99%), Will Setterfield (97%)
    HF: Mitch McGovern (96%), Harry McKay (99%), Jack Martin (94%)
    FF: Eddie Betts (98%), Charlie Curnow (97%), David Cuningham (80%)
    FOL: Matthew Kreuzer*, Ed Curnow (96%), Marc Murphy (96%)
    INT: Sam Petrevski-Seton (63%), Jack Silvagni (53%), Zac Fisher (69%), Jack Newnes (32%)
    EMG: Nic Newman (61%), Matthew Kennedy (22%), Michael Gibbons (30%), Levi Casboult*

    Actual 2020 Line up
    B: Lachie Plowman, Liam Jones, Sam Docherty
    HB: Nic Newman, Jacob Weitering, Sam Petrevski-Seton
    C: Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps, Jack Newnes
    HF: Paddy Dow, Mitch McGovern, Jack Martin
    F: Michael Gibbons, Levi Casboult, Jack Silvagni
    R: Matthew Kreuzer, Marc Murphy, Ed Curnow
    INT: Kade Simpson, Will Setterfield, Zac Fisher, David Cuningham
    EMG: not noted

    Differences to Consensus 22 (4)
    Named in Round 1: Newman, Casboult, Gibbons, Dow
    Didn’t make the cut: Marchbank, McKay, Betts, Curnow

    Now, after the world’s longest prologue, let us begin.
     
    Last edited:
    • Midfield Vote Complete
    • The votes are in!

    With understandably the highest votes, our starting on-ballers will be Crippa (157 votes), Setters (152) and Sam Walsh (153). The makeup of this group won't be exact and will move around due to their flexibility, but the other 2 x starting mid/wings will be new Blue Zac Williams (144) and Ed Curnow (122).

    Rounding out the rotation will be SPS, who tallied the sixth highest ahead of a large group of chasers with 49 votes.

    Honourable mentions were: Murphy (38), Martin (21) and Dow (19).

    OP updated and defenders vote coming very soon.
     
    • Forwards vote
    • The forwards vote is LIVE, and it will be the hardest vote by a long way.

    Genuinely undecided on this one. I can safely only mark down a few names this year in Martin, Fisher and Harry. Charlie will get the nod as he's obviously our best option but we know he'll only play from mid year if that.

    I like half a dozen guys in the smaller roles and am undecided on Gov.

    In the end, I went with Harry and Charlie as the talls and Jack over Mitch for the third tall. He offers more consistent effort and versatility around the ground. In Charlie's absence I hope Casboult gets the nod as we'll need him for the chop out. Means my 7 would result in purely TDK and Harry chopping out in the ruck - exactly what I wanted to avoid.

    I've gone with Jack, Zac and Eddie up forward as the smalls - talent in spades, midfield rotation and a bit of speed.

    I'd love to find space for Gibbons and Fogarty but have gone Murphy out of respect for what he's done and his class up forward. He will play 15+ games this year if fit and will have a few Brownlow-voting games among a number that cause fans to call for his head. 2021 should be the last year for our former captain and I hope he goes out on a high.

    Silvagni - Harry - Martin
    Fisher - Curnow - Betts
    I/C - Murph

    I'll take this vote to 6 days. Let's get some discussion going.
     
    • Forwards vote
    • One step forward, another two forward

    Our forward setup has been finalised, with injury-riddled Charlie Curnow (108 votes) earning a berth in the hypothetical best 22 - as he should. Not expected back until mid-year, many expect Charlie to regain his rightful spot and get some footy in his legs by the close of 2021.

    Fan-favourite Zac Fisher proved popular, earning the third-highest votes in the forward line. Harry McKay (133) and Jack Martin (129) were the only truly definitive players - earning 99% and 96% of all available votes respectively.

    Mitch McGovern (68) and Eddie Betts (87) earned reprises in our best side after disappointing finishes to 2020. There's definitely a feeling that guys like Fogarty, Owies or even Durdin will eclipse Betts by the close of 2021. The Governator is make or break next year, too.

    Finally, Jack Silvagni (61) is looking the goods and keen to put 2020 behind him - earning a spot in the 22 due to his flexibility and improved running capacity.

    Now onto our FINAL spot in the 22.

    Make your vote count, baggers!
     
    • We have our Best 22
    • Our Best 22 has been decided for Season 2021.

    After falling short in the midfield and forward votes, former-skipper Marc Murphy ran away with the final vote to take out the 22nd spot with 31 votes (29.2% of the overall vote).

    Mature heads in Michael Gibbons (19), Levi Casboult (18) and Dave Cuningham (11) took the majority of the remaining votes.

    Our emergency vote will be up shortly, whereby I expect the above three to be present. Paddy Dow (10), Brodie Kemp (5) and Nic Newman (4) are also in a chance. I expect at least 2 of this group to make the final side for Round 1, 2021.

    Thank you all for voting and I hope you've enjoyed the discussion and process for another year. I hereby give you our Consensus 22 for Round 1, 2021:

    FB: L. Plowman - L. Jones - A. Saad
    HB: S. Docherty - J. Weitering - T. Williamson
    C: S. Walsh - E. Curnow - Z. Williams
    HF: Fisher - McKay - Martin
    FF: McGovern - Curnow - Betts
    R: T. De Koning - P. Cripps - W. Setterfield
    I: S. Petrevski-Seton - C. Marchbank - J. Silvagni - M. Murphy
     

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    Consensus complete
    • Done, done and done

    The final vote of 2020 for the consensus 22 has been ran. With almost 80% of possible votes, versatile swingman Casboult has secured first spot in our emergencies, with former supplemental selection Mick Gibbons; promising Dave Cuningham and returning backman Nic Newman taking the final three spots.

    This group provide valuable depth and security for our 22 selected, of which I know at least 2 will be in with a great shot of the true Round 1 team.

    Thank you all for your votes and contributions - now to see how far we were off come March 18.

    Bounce the ball already!
     

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