List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[Golumless]

Yeah - that was what I did.

Counting is not my strong suit today.

 

[Peter Doherty]

8 Point game tonight.

 

[Brett Cummings]

pick 4 baby. see ye later keays.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

pick 4 baby. see ye later keays.

Matthew Roberts time

 

[DaKids]

Matthew Roberts time ❤

Picked up a nasty ankle injury playing school footy last week unfortunately.

Out for a while Apparently

 

[WetCrow1991]

All the draft picks in the world won't help us if we keep selecting duds with most of them. Thilthorpe was the first 1st round hit in years.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Picked up a nasty ankle injury playing school footy last week unfortunately.

Out for a while Apparently

All good
Allows him to slide

 

[StonesThrow]

All good
Allows him to slide

To where? We're gonna have a top 5 pick anyway. Then a pick in the 20s somewhere.

We want as many u18s playing as much as possible to see if they're any good.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

To where? We're gonna have a top 5 pick anyway. Then a pick in the 20s somewhere.

We want as many u18s playing as much as possible to see if they're any good.

To 5
Hawks earmarked to be keen , hopefully pushes them elsewhere

 

[StonesThrow]

Not sure if he's down enough to be top 4 yet anyway.

 

[Crowman32]

Hugh Stagg from glenelg might be a player to keep an eye on. A midfielder who kicks goals. Hes playing pretty well in the reserves for the bays today so far.

 

[DaKids]

Hugh Stagg from glenelg might be a player to keep an eye on. A midfielder who kicks goals. Hes playing pretty well in the reserves for the bays today so far.

Agree - Shay Linke out at Centrals yet another good U18 mid that’s gaining traction. Had a good run in the reserves yesterday too.

Boy we’ve got a lot of good mids around this year

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I think it’s a good idea to try and get an extra 1st rounder somehow this year given it’s a midfield draft with plenty of locals

3 decent mids that have versatility and points of difference would really help us

add them to Shoenberg who has what it takes in there long term too, not many other unfort

 

[1990crow]

I think it’s a good idea to try and get an extra 1st rounder somehow this year given it’s a midfield draft with plenty of locals

3 decent mids that have versatility and points of difference would really help us

add them to Shoenberg who has what it takes in there long term too, not many other unfort

Well we will have a top 4 pick, pick in the 20-24 range, 35 (Melbourne pick) as well as whatever we get for Crouch and Talia if they both leave.
Crouch likely band 2 or 3. Pick 19 of 24.
Talia late second? Maybe.
That's potentially 4 second round picks.

I suspect one of those early second round picks is reserved for either Stephens or Dawson from Sydney.
The other three should be decent enough to get one team in the pick 14 to 18 range to be interested in a swap.

 

[Crow till I die]

Hugh Stagg from glenelg might be a player to keep an eye on. A midfielder who kicks goals. Hes playing pretty well in the reserves for the bays today so far.

Son of either matthew or jeremy?

 

[morris086]

Well we will have a top 4 pick, pick in the 20-24 range, 35 (Melbourne pick) as well as whatever we get for Crouch and Talia if they both leave.
Crouch likely band 2 or 3. Pick 19 of 24.
Talia late second? Maybe.
That's potentially 4 second round picks.

I suspect one of those early second round picks is reserved for either Stephens or Dawson from Sydney.
The other three should be decent enough to get one team in the pick 14 to 18 range to be interested in a swap.

I've got question marks on Stephens still as I had in his draft year. He played in a Redlegs side that was stacked inside so he was played predominantly outside and looked good doing it but the question I have is if his contested game has progressed. Sydney have some good balanced mids coming through who look to have past him already so I'm thinking Sydney think he hasn't developed as they'd hoped. Last year was bad for young players development league wide so I'm not writing him off, I'm just not sure if he is another James Aish.

 

[ABAB]

I've got question marks on Stephens still as I had in his draft year. He played in a Redlegs side that was stacked inside so he was played predominantly outside and looked good doing it but the question I have is if his contested game has progressed. Sydney have some good balanced mids coming through who look to have past him already so I'm thinking Sydney think he hasn't developed as they'd hoped. Last year was bad for young players development league wide so I'm not writing him off, I'm just not sure if he is another James Wish.

Hence he will come cheap like Hately did and we need that outside running midfielder. His disposal is a concern though, I don't recall it being that bad?

 

[huludicidal]

I think it’s a good idea to try and get an extra 1st rounder somehow this year given it’s a midfield draft with plenty of locals

3 decent mids that have versatility and points of difference would really help us

add them to Shoenberg who has what it takes in there long term too, not many other unfort

I agree, getting an extra first rounder this year is a must.

As the title of the thread suggests, We’ll head into the off-season with something like Picks 4, 23 and 37. Maybe it ends up as 5, 24 and 37. Close enough though.

The key to getting another first rounder might be Matt Crouch. It’s starting to feel If a club offers him a deal similar to the one the Saints gave his brother, that would net us Pick 24 (the pick directly after our second rounder).

So, we keep pick 4, and then we have two of 23, 24 and 37 to play with to net us the extra first rounder. Let’s be honest, nobody with a first round pick cares about pick 37.

Packaging up 23 and 24 might get us something like pick 13-15 (plus a late pick which we need for points for our NGA prospects). In this particular draft, that would be a huge get IMO - someone like Arlo Draper is no chance of getting through to us in the mid 20s, but could well be on the board at 13-15. Matt Johnson, Neil Erasmus and Ben Hobbs would be another 3 really nice looking prospects to suit our midfield needs who are some sort of chance of being available to us at 13-15 (at least one of these players is pretty much guaranteed to be there), but seemingly no chance of getting through to the mid 20s.

In the unlikely event that Crouch re-signs with us, OR in the somewhat LIKELY event that no other club wants to trade their mid teens pick to us for two picks in the 20s, I’d be absolutely fine with us trading our 2022 first rounder to get another pick in the top 12 of this year’s draft if that appealed to any of the clubs picking between about 7 and 12. It’s a loaded draft, so let’s go all in. Maybe one of those other clubs will back us in to finish bottom 4 in 2022 and feel they’re winning the trade.

So, scenario one: Crouch leaves, we Trade 23ish and 24ish for 13-15ish. Draft one of Roberts, Sonsie, Sinn, Chesser or Callaghan at Pick 4-5, then take one of Draper, Hobbs, Erasmus or Johnson (or Rachele / one of the players listed in the pick 4-5 range if they slide) at 13-15ish. Use the rest of the draft for needs (a small forward with elite speed and/or a ruckman), plus at least one of the NGAs (O’Loughlin is a must-draft, Dudley I would hope might slip through to a Cat B selection).

Scenario 2: Regardless of whether Crouch leaves or stays, we trade our 2022 first rounder for a 2021 pick between 7 and 12. We then have two picks between 4 and 12 this year, which allows us to absolutely definitely take one of Sonsie, Sinn, Roberts, Chesser, Callaghan (at pick 4ish) AND one of Sonsie, Sinn, Roberts, Chesser, Callaghan, Rachele, Draper, Johnson, Erasmus, Hobbs at 7-12. Pants off if one of that first group that I’ve shortlisted for pick 4 drifts to our second pick here.

If Crouch does leave in this second scenario, we would still have two more picks in the 20s to potentially grab the best small forward on the board (assuming we DON’T draft Josh Rachele with one of the first two picks because he kind of fits that bill, although maybe he ends up being drafted as a mid), and maybe trade the other pick to get another very late first / very early 2nd rounder in 2022 (ie we trade with the Dees, Dogs, Lions or Cats for their 2022 first, or the Kangas, Hawks or Pies for their 2022 second).


Either way, I think it should be doable. It’s all about finding another club with a reason to pull the trigger on one of those pick trades.

 

[Crow till I die]

I agree, getting an extra first rounder this year is a must.

As the title of the thread suggests, We’ll head into the off-season with something like Picks 4, 23 and 37. Maybe it ends up as 5, 24 and 37. Close enough though.

The key to getting another first rounder might be Matt Crouch. It’s starting to feel If a club offers him a deal similar to the one the Saints gave his brother, that would net us Pick 24 (the pick directly after our second rounder).

So, we keep pick 4, and then we have two of 23, 24 and 37 to play with to net us the extra first rounder. Let’s be honest, nobody with a first round pick cares about pick 37.

Packaging up 23 and 24 might get us something like pick 13-15 (plus a late pick which we need for points for our NGA prospects). In this particular draft, that would be a huge get IMO - someone like Arlo Draper is no chance of getting through to us in the mid 20s, but could well be on the board at 13-15. Matt Johnson, Neil Erasmus and Ben Hobbs would be another 3 really nice looking prospects to suit our midfield needs who are some sort of chance of being available to us at 13-15 (at least one of these players is pretty much guaranteed to be there), but seemingly no chance of getting through to the mid 20s.

In the unlikely event that Crouch re-signs with us, OR in the somewhat LIKELY event that no other club wants to trade their mid teens pick to us for two picks in the 20s, I’d be absolutely fine with us trading our 2022 first rounder to get another pick in the top 12 of this year’s draft if that appealed to any of the clubs picking between about 7 and 12. It’s a loaded draft, so let’s go all in. Maybe one of those other clubs will back us in to finish bottom 4 in 2022 and feel they’re winning the trade.

So, scenario one: Crouch leaves, we Trade 23ish and 24ish for 13-15ish. Draft one of Roberts, Sonsie, Sinn, Chesser or Callaghan at Pick 4-5, then take one of Draper, Hobbs, Erasmus or Johnson (or Rachele / one of the players listed in the pick 4-5 range if they slide) at 13-15ish. Use the rest of the draft for needs (a small forward with elite speed and/or a ruckman), plus at least one of the NGAs (O’Loughlin is a must-draft, Dudley I would hope might slip through to a Cat B selection).

Scenario 2: Regardless of whether Crouch leaves or stays, we trade our 2022 first rounder for a 2021 pick between 7 and 12. We then have two picks between 4 and 12 this year, which allows us to absolutely definitely take one of Sonsie, Sinn, Roberts, Chesser, Callaghan (at pick 4ish) AND one of Sonsie, Sinn, Roberts, Chesser, Callaghan, Rachele, Draper, Johnson, Erasmus, Hobbs at 7-12. Pants off if one of that first group that I’ve shortlisted for pick 4 drifts to our second pick here.

If Crouch does leave in this second scenario, we would still have two more picks in the 20s to potentially grab the best small forward on the board (assuming we DON’T draft Josh Rachele with one of the first two picks because he kind of fits that bill, although maybe he ends up being drafted as a mid), and maybe trade the other pick to get another very late first / very early 2nd rounder in 2022 (ie we trade with the Dees, Dogs, Lions or Cats for their 2022 first, or the Kangas, Hawks or Pies for their 2022 second).


Either way, I think it should be doable. It’s all about finding another club with a reason to pull the trigger on one of those pick trades.

I am not trading out our 2022 1st. Next year there will be verrall, keelor or maybe a play for lukosius or rankine. We are still likely to.miss finals imo so that 2022 1st is pikely to be a pick between 5-9. Any extra 1st rounder this year would have to be found another way..ie any possible free agency compo if m crouch leaves bundled with our 2nd etc.

 

[Golumless]

I am not trading out our 2022 1st. Next year there will be verrall, keelor or maybe a play for lukosius or rankine. We are still likely to.miss finals imo so that 2022 1st is pikely to be a pick between 5-9. Any extra 1st rounder this year would have to be found another way..ie any possible free agency compo if m crouch leaves bundled with our 2nd etc.

I'm thinking that 2022 1st might be lower. Development is not linear, and whilst I love the fact we've beaten two top-4 teams this year, it also potentially indicates we're overperforming at the moment. Though of course you could argue that we've accidentally evened it up with the Collingwood and Hawks games. Two we had no business losing with how we played for the most part, and lost.

Pick 9 is definitely the upper end for where we'll end up in the 2022 draft. That said I wouldn't be discounting picks 1-4 being a likely result either. All that takes is a regression from Tex, and some youngsters being a bit slower to develop to occur on top of other clubs sorting their shit out. Hawks could have a post-Clarkson bounce (even the best get stale eventually if that is what has occurred), Collingwood could have a post-Buckley bounce. North could just be mimicking us.

 

[Crow till I die]

I'm thinking that 2022 1st might be lower. Development is not linear, and whilst I love the fact we've beaten two top-4 teams this year, it also potentially indicates we're overperforming at the moment. Though of course you could argue that we've accidentally evened it up with the Collingwood and Hawks games. Two we had no business losing with how we played for the most part, and lost.

Pick 9 is definitely the upper end for where we'll end up in the 2022 draft. That said I wouldn't be discounting picks 1-4 being a likely result either. All that takes is a regression from Tex, and some youngsters being a bit slower to develop to occur on top of other clubs sorting their sh*t out. Hawks could have a post-Clarkson bounce (even the best get stale eventually if that is what has occurred), Collingwood could have a post-Buckley bounce. North could just be mimicking us.

It could be it plays out like that..and that is why its a huge risk to trade out the 2022 1st..unless a club looks at us and thinks they will try a trick like we did with carlton where we get a late 1st this year and a swap of 1sts in 2022..then we would be death riding that side like you wouldn't believe. But whatever happens we absolutely need to retain a 2022 1st rounder is some form and the deal had better be a bleddy good one from our perspective

 

[Golumless]

It could be it plays out like that..and that is why its a huge risk to trade out the 2022 1st..unless a club looks at us and thinks they will try a trick like we did with carlton where we get a late 1st this year and a swap of 1sts in 2022..then we would be death riding that side like you wouldn't believe. But whatever happens we absolutely need to retain a 2022 1st rounder is some form and the deal had better be a bleddy good one from our perspective

There is only one club I'd genuinely consider moving on our 2022 first to. North. That's only to upgrade to get Horne this year. I doubt North considers it, but stranger things have happened.

Otherwise, I'm only trading for anything I'd move pick 1 on for. After all, we could feasibly have that pick in 2022.

 

[huludicidal]

I am not trading out our 2022 1st. Next year there will be verrall, keelor or maybe a play for lukosius or rankine. We are still likely to.miss finals imo so that 2022 1st is pikely to be a pick between 5-9. Any extra 1st rounder this year would have to be found another way..ie any possible free agency compo if m crouch leaves bundled with our 2nd etc.

Fair enough view to have, but I suspect the view of some recruiters is that the 2021 draft is significantly stronger than 2022 at the top end, so Pick 10-12 this year MIGHT be considered more valuable than Pick 5-9 next year by some.

If our recruiters see the player most likely to be available to us at 10-12 as on par with say, pick 4-5 in 2022, then we pull the trigger on that trade in a heartbeat (especially considering we get the player into our facilities a year earlier). If we view the drafts equally at the top end, we don’t do it. Simple.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Hence he will come cheap like Hately did and we need that outside running midfielder. His disposal is a concern though, I don't recall it being that bad?

I’ve always thought his disposal was overrated

I actually think his contested game and tackling isn’t as bad as people make out

I don’t think he should be a massive target unless he came cheap

 

[Peter Doherty]

The timing feels right to move the '22 first rounder forward. We have kicked the can down the road to a degree, now we pull the trigger.

We need to draft multiple high quality mids now, they will take time to develop, get them in now.