List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[70lethal]

We'd still have a bang avg midfield

I think we will have that no matter as it will take 2-3 years for young guys to develop.
Not 100% sure that Pedlar, Berry, Schoenberg and McHenry all end up ave.

I don't think Richmond trade pick 7 and 15.
They may consider 7 and a 2nd if they end up with heaps of 2nds with Chol and possibly CCJ leaving.

I don't think Roberts suits us.

No way Rankine is worth a 1st unless something dramatic changes next year.

 

[Bearded Clam]

I think we will have that no matter as it will take 2-3 years for young guys to develop.
Not 100% sure that Pedlar, Berry, Schoenberg and McHenry all end up ave.

I don't think Richmond trade pick 7 and 15.
They may consider 7 and a 2nd if they end up with heaps of 2nds with Chol and possibly CCJ leaving.

I don't think Roberts suits us.

No way Rankine is worth a 1st unless something dramatic changes next year.

Rankines worth whatever price the suns put on him if he asks to be traded home this year.. he is contracted.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Uncontracted !

The crows will pay a fair price for him if he choses them.. he is a bloody great player.. he’s easily worth a pick in the 14-18 range if not higher..

23 is too low.

Crows have always been fair and reasonable at the trade table.

 

[70lethal]

Schoenberg, Pedlar, Crouch, Keays, and Berry , and possibly Jones ....all contested players, 3 of which are left footers, which is a plus

Just don't think adding a Hobbs adds any diversity to that list above .....you've heard the term "a sameness about midfields" .....it's a term used about ours quite often

A Callaghan / Erasmus / Goater, adds some diversity

Hobbs maybe sameness but will he be of a much higher standard? If so it's not a bad thing if it means we are better. The real issue if say Hobbs, Pedlar, Schoenberg excel what happens to the rest? Laird can go back, Keays to a wing or half forward, Berry not sure, Crouch no where else to go and a 2 year deal may look really wise moving forward.
Pedlar and Schoenberg are very different to Laird and Crouch imo.

Callaghan will be gone, Erasmus sounds good but such limited viewing of him Goater we would want to slide and get another pick I think or move our 2nd up.

 

[70lethal]

Rankines worth whatever price the suns put on him if he asks to be traded home this year.. he is contracted.

Some people don't want to put the hard work in to be successful. You would want to be absolutely certain he does otherwise he's not worth a second thought never mind a 1st.

 

[Drewie11]

Theres absolutely no chance suns give up a contracted rankine this year without demanding, at a minimum, a first rounder.

Im keen as to see 4 turned into 7 and 16.. but get Erusmas with 7 and Draper/roberts/something else with 16 depending on who’s there.

Either that or 16 to suns for rankine.

Then Dawson, if he picks us, I think will at least cost us this years second and 2022 2nd.. we may need to bundle them up and trade them to the dogs for their first to give to sydney.. like carlolton did to get the 1st we wanted for (Mcfatso)..

But Dawson, erasmus and 1 of Rankine/roberts/Draper would be a massive haul..

I want Dawson but if we miss out on him I wont be too phased as we have plenty of half back wing types.. If we get Dawson I hope we are looking at attempting to transition him into the midfield.. we need a highly skilled, good decision making mid with an elite kick injected in there as soon as humanly possible.. We currently have the worst midfield combination in the comp.

The 2022 is our first pick for Rankine this year. If we are trying to get both there is absolutely no chance of getting both next year at the same time. If Rankine is unhappy there at the moment this is the chance to have a crack this year and then go for Lukosious next year

 

[Eagleboy2011]

How good is Daicos if he is rated No1 and only playing Junior football, ahead of Horne-Francis who has been playing senior SANFL for 2 seasons?

 

[70lethal]

The crows will pay a fair price for him if he choses them.. he is a bloody great player.. he’s easily worth a pick in the 14-18 range if not higher..

23 is too low.

Crows have always been fair and reasonable at the trade table.

Hately PSd?
Danger wasn't fair or reasonable
Gibbs was an absolute shafting
Keath was dirt cheap

I hope or think our policies may have changed or changing where we do what best for the team and not our image

 

[WaynesWorld19]

The crows will pay a fair price for him if he choses them.. he is a bloody great player.. he’s easily worth a pick in the 14-18 range if not higher..

23 is too low.

Crows have always been fair and reasonable at the trade table.

But that will be the price .....a trade is not always reflective of true value

Was Keath worth more or less than what we got for him ...#45 and a future 2nd for our 3rd round pick ....which given the clubs table positions wasn't a big difference

Was Hugh Greenwood worth more than a future 3rd and future 4th round pick ? .....of course

I could mount an argument that both of the above players are & have been better than Dawson

 

[70lethal]

How good is Daicos if he is rated No1 and only playing Junior football, ahead of Horne-Francis who has been playing senior SANFL for 2 seasons?

SANFL footy doesn't translate super well. Knightmare has shared a few thoughts on why.
Not saying JHF won't be a gun but guys like Stephens, Gould, Aish, Hately don't seem to transition as quickly as some of the guys coming out of Vic U18's.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Hobbs maybe sameness but will he be of a much higher standard? If so it's not a bad thing if it means we are better. The real issue if say Hobbs, Pedlar, Schoenberg excel what happens to the rest? Laird can go back, Keays to a wing or half forward, Berry not sure, Crouch no where else to go and a 2 year deal may look really wise moving forward.
Pedlar and Schoenberg are very different to Laird and Crouch imo.

Callaghan will be gone, Erasmus sounds good but such limited viewing of him Goater we would want to slide and get another pick I think or move our 2nd up.

So you're moving Keays to a wing, rather than where he's resurrected his AFL career .....and on the top of Nicks saying Keays is our best defensive mid ??

Laird AA midfielder ...and our best mid ...you want to move back into DEF, where we have a multitude of options ? .....don't forget Parnell

Who says Callaghan is gone ? .....the BF Draft guru's ....means nothing
GWS and GC may have different needs than a Callaghan type .....make no mistakes, this will be a needs based Draft

 

[Mego Red]

Thoughts on splitting 4 for 7 and 15 grabbing Draper and Robert’s

Pick 23 and next years third for Dawson and Sydney’s next years third

Our 2022 to Gold Coast for Rankine then next year use our 2023 first for Lukosious

So in the next 2 years we get Dawson, Rankine, Lukosious, Draper and Robert’s

I think Gold Coast might blink with Rankine this year but we can’t go after both Rankine and Lukosious next year if both are out of contract. Need to try and pry Rankine out this year

Richmond wouldn't do the first trade.

That seems a tiny bit light for Dawson, but maybe.

That's too much to give up for Rankine.

 

[Mego Red]

Schoenberg, Pedlar, Crouch, Keays, and Berry , and possibly Jones ....all contested players, 3 of which are left footers, which is a plus

Just don't think adding a Hobbs adds any diversity to that list above .....you've heard the term "a sameness about midfields" .....it's a term used about ours quite often

A Callaghan / Erasmus / Goater, adds some diversity

I disagree.

Schoenberg will be inside and out, Berry may not amount to anything, Keays and Crouch may or may not be here in a couple of years.

This is a VERY risky draft year, both for lack of exposed form and the fact that many players have barely played for two years. There will definitely be some busts.

I think you go for the sure thing. Draft for talent and work the rest out later.

 

[70lethal]

We've been a bit unlucky where our 1st pick has landed each year of late. Swap our 1sts around and the picture looks very different
2018 pick 6 would get Rozee or Smith
2019 Pick1 Rowell or Anderson
2020 Pick 4 TT
2021 Pick 8 Eramsus, Draper types

 

[70lethal]

So you're moving Keays to a wing, rather than where he's resurrected his AFL career .....and on the top of Nicks saying Keays is our best defensive mid ??

Laird AA midfielder ...and our best mid ...you want to move back into DEF, where we have a multitude of options ? .....don't forget Parnell

Who says Callaghan is gone ? .....the BF Draft guru's ....means nothing
GWS and GC may have different needs than a Callaghan type .....make no mistakes, this will be a needs based Draft

Melbourne shifted brayshaw out of the middle after finishing 3rd in a brownlow.

Laird and Keays are there partly by circumstances and almost default.
If we had Melbourne or WB midfield where would they be playing?

That's what we need to aim for because our midfield is crap hence only winning 10 games in 2 years.

Different question. Rank where our midfield sits with other teams? If it's not in the top 4 then absolutely keep drafting best available mid until we have one of the best.

They have to make way for elite talent.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

This is a VERY risky draft year, both for lack of exposed form and the fact that many players have barely played for two years. There will definitely be some busts.

It's been reported that most clubs recruiters believe they've seen enough of this years Draft crop, in the first half of the year, to make reasonable assessments

Once again, depends on whether you're asking your recruiters to select players on Draft Year form or latent talent ....this IMO is a godsend, as too many players get drafted highly due to "out of the box" draft year form .....and highly talented players that have had a poor year, drop down the draft order

 

[aabp1978]

We've been a bit unlucky where our 1st pick has landed each year of late. Swap our 1sts around and the picture looks very different
2018 pick 6 would get Rozee or Smith
2019 Pick1 Rowell or Anderson
2020 Pick 4 TT
2021 Pick 8 Eramsus, Draper types

Couldnt have got Smith....he draft tampered remember (sorry, explained he just didnt want to go to an "interstate" club....nothing to see here...poor guy. If only JHF could develop similar issues...

 

[DaKids]

Melbourne shifted brayshaw out of the middle after finishing 3rd in a brownlow.

Laird and Keays are there partly by circumstances and almost default.
If we had Melbourne or WB midfield where would they be playing?

That's what we need to aim for because our midfield is crap hence only winning 10 games in 2 years.

Different question. Rank where our midfield sits with other teams? If it's not in the top 4 then absolutely keep drafting best available mid until we have one of the best.

They have to make way for elite talent.

I think the Crows can go forward with those 2 - 1 being the “hit to” midfielder. That would be the role of Libba for WB or Viney for Melb. Not the sexiest position but a critical role.

The other can be a defensive coverage midfielder like Dunkley. So yes there’s room for both Keays and Laird to play those roles at an acceptable standard. The roles they haven’t got covered yet are the more dynamic pieces - Bont/McCrae Petracca/Oliver. Maybe that could be young Harry Schoenberg as one. Not sure about the rest so yes they need to use 4 and next years 1st pick too.

They certainly dont Under any circumstances want to be using either 4 or next years on a trade for players like Dawson, or either of the GC boys. Not that they’re not good players, but they won’t be filling those midfield gaps.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Melbourne shifted brayshaw out of the middle after finishing 3rd in a brownlow.

Too slow and terrible footskills ....even this year Harmes was preferred over Brayshaw

Laird and Keays are there partly by circumstances and almost default.
If we had Melbourne or WB midfield where would they be playing?

Circumstances of new Coach Nicks, recognizing Laird's elite 5mtr speed & playing Keays in his true position, not manufacturing a role, like BRIS tried

Laird was recruited as a midfielder, played all his games at Westies as a Mid .....it was in fact circumstances that saw him played in DEF

That's what we need to aim for because our midfield is crap hence only winning 10 games in 2 years.

All our mids this year are in their 2nd year of AFL development .....give them some time
Oliver and Petracca are in their 6th year .....huge difference

Different question. Rank where our midfield sits with other teams? If it's not in the top 4 then absolutely keep drafting best available mid until we have one of the best.

They sit where the you'd expect a midfield to sit, with limited experience ....against highly experienced midfields

Unfortunately your expectation is that whoever we Draft is a star of the competition year 1 .....and you're not making any allowance for developmental time

Question; how good was Rowell this year .....answer; as you would expect of a 2nd year player .....very ordinary
Contrast that with Shoenberg who had an excellent 2nd year .......#23 versus #1

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I think the Crows can go forward with those 2 - 1 being the “hit to” midfielder. That would be the role of Libba for WB or Viney for Melb. Not the sexiest position but a critical role.

The other can be a defensive coverage midfielder like Dunkley. So yes there’s room for both Keays and Laird to play those roles at an acceptable standard. The roles they haven’t got covered yet are the more dynamic pieces - Bont/McCrae Petracca/Oliver. Maybe that could be young Harry Schoenberg as one. Not sure about the rest so yes they need to use 4 and next years 1st pick too.

They certainly dont Under any circumstances want to be using either 4 or next years on a trade for players like Dawson, or either of the GC boys. Not that they’re not good players, but they won’t be filling those midfield gaps.

High hopes Pedlar will be one of those players .....but agree, need another

 

[Mismatched]

Schoenberg, Pedlar, Crouch, Keays, and Berry , and possibly Jones ....all contested players, 3 of which are left footers, which is a plus

Just don't think adding a Hobbs adds any diversity to that list above .....you've heard the term "a sameness about midfields" .....it's a term used about ours quite often

A Callaghan / Erasmus / Goater, adds some diversity

Yeah, I'm very much aboard this train.

Ward and Hobbs sound like quality midfielders, but I feel we've invested heavily in this type already (Pedlar/Shoenberg/Berry) and were already reasonably well stocked especially now Crouch has signed on. Maybe they're better, maybe they're not, but its going to be an absolute shit fight to get Pedlar/Shoenberg/Berry adequate game time to develop, let alone adding another very similar midfielder to that mix.

To me the three you mention (Callaghan/Erasmus/Goater) appear to be the point of difference type midfielders that we're realistically crying out for.

With flat drafts like this one supposedly is, needs based selections come more to the fore. If we trade down as some are suggesting, I think we potentially box ourselves into drafting a player that doesn't suit our needs, or you end up reaching as a result.

Ultimately we've spent the last 3-4 years trading down and into future drafts, we've now got a high volume of young talent that's going to be fighting for adequate opportunities. I think we need to maximise the talent at our selections, going quality over quantity.

 

[70lethal]

So you're moving Keays to a wing, rather than where he's resurrected his AFL career .....and on the top of Nicks saying Keays is our best defensive mid ??

Laird AA midfielder ...and our best mid ...you want to move back into DEF, where we have a multitude of options ? .....don't forget Parnell

Who says Callaghan is gone ? .....the BF Draft guru's ....means nothing
GWS and GC may have different needs than a Callaghan type .....make no mistakes, this will be a needs based Draft

So your saying your starting midfield is Keays and Laird as musts.

So we then have Crouch, Pedlar, Berry, Jones, McHenry, Shoenberg to rotate.

So why do we need to recruit a Erasmus etc?

Answer; because our midfield is shite.

You want Schoenberg to be elite. You want Pedlar to be elite and you want Erasmus to be a match winner, at least that's what I would like.

So how does Laird and Keays fit in when there's still Berry, McHenry Crouch and possibly Cook.

Surely you want our picks 4, 9, 11, 16 to be better than our rookie picks.

 

[Mego Red]

The 2022 is our first pick for Rankine this year. If we are trying to get both there is absolutely no chance of getting both next year at the same time. If Rankine is unhappy there at the moment this is the chance to have a crack this year and then go for Lukosious next year

I think there is a much bigger chance Rankine happens this year - if there's any risk that he's going to be a cancer, the last thing that GCS is going to want to do is pay him $700k to play in the reserves.

 

[Mego Red]

It's been reported that most clubs recruiters believe they've seen enough of this years Draft crop, in the first half of the year, to make reasonable assessments

Once again, depends on whether you're asking your recruiters to select players on Draft Year form or latent talent ....this IMO is a godsend, as too many players get drafted highly due to "out of the box" draft year form .....and highly talented players that have had a poor year, drop down the draft order

First, where has that been reported?

Second - what do you expect them to say?

Obviously, there's only a handful of games that have been played in Victoria in two years. That's a terrible lack of data to draw upon.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

So your saying your starting midfield is Keays and Laird as musts.

So we then have Crouch, Pedlar, Berry, Jones, McHenry, Shoenberg to rotate.

So why do we need to recruit a Erasmus etc?

Answer; because our midfield is sh*te.

You want Schoenberg to be elite. You want Pedlar to be elite and you want Erasmus to be a match winner, at least that's what I would like.

So how does Laird and Keays fit in when there's still Berry, McHenry Crouch and possibly Cook.

Surely you want our picks 4, 9, 11, 16 to be better than our rookie picks.

Future starting Midfield (2023) .....Schoenberg, Pedlar, Crouch / Laird

Not that I want Schoenberg and Pedlar to be elite ......fact is they will be, and quickly ...injury permitting of course

Most elite midfields have 8-9 rotating thru ....Keays, McHenry, Jones ++

What our midfield is missing from the above players is speed, height, and contested marking .....hard to get all 3 in a player, unless they're the ilk of Bont or Fyfe .....but I definitely believe adding another 180cm player like Hobbs add simply more of the same