Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[pK75]

Fox footy has you after Callaghan at pick 2.

A swap of 6 and 8 for 2 and 13 plus Freo sweetening it up a bit with later swaps makes alot of sense if this is true. Freo get the premium mid of the open draft and a Cerra upgrade and should get first look at JVR and Johnson and every chance amiss or Erasmus end up sliders. Gws might get both the KPPs at 6 and 8

I like this scenario a lot, not sure how we sweeten the deal though, as mentioned before we have very little outside of pick 19 and that would be way overs to trade 6,8&19 for 2&13

 

[Shadow89]

We also have 67 which you left out. So that would be very close to enough points by the time they rise.

If we are short it's our 2nd round that goes into deficit next year, not our first.

If Windhager is bidded on after pick 40 we can just use the next pick to take him, which would be 85.

Ahhh, cheers for that. I didn't see you had Pick 67 too. After bids that should be around Pick 60, so you won't be too far off then.

My mistake

 

[Giant Strides]

I like this scenario a lot, not sure how we sweeten the deal though, as mentioned before we have very little outside of pick 19 and that would be way overs to trade 6,8&19 for 2&13

You say that 6, 8 & 19 is overs for 2 & 13; but I say that 6 & 8 only for 2 & 13 is well under value. There's been plenty of trades in previous years paying a an first round pick as premium for upgrading a first round pick to a really early first round pick.

There's definitely sweetening required to make the trade.

 

[pK75]

You say that 6, 8 & 19 is overs for 2 & 13; but I say that 6 & 8 only for 2 & 13 is well under value. There's been plenty of trades in previous years paying a an first round pick as premium for upgrading a first round pick to a really early first round pick.

There's definitely sweetening required to make the trade.

Agreed, that’s why I don’t see how it can get done, unless GWS is happy to take our pick 61 which would move up to early 50s after Daicos and Darcy Bids are matched, or possibly also a swap of next years 1st round picks (likely to be around 8 and 13 again) unless Freo or GWS improves dramatically.

 

[chopflop]

You say that 6, 8 & 19 is overs for 2 & 13; but I say that 6 & 8 only for 2 & 13 is well under value. There's been plenty of trades in previous years paying a an first round pick as premium for upgrading a first round pick to a really early first round pick.

There's definitely sweetening required to make the trade.

How about I play mediator.

Is this closer

2 + 13

6 + 8 + F2 (mid 20s)

Freo really paying the premium here to get pick 2. Maybe something late coming back from GWS?

 

[theGav56]

How about I play mediator.

Is this closer

2 + 13

6 + 8 + F2 (mid 20s)

Freo really paying the premium here to get pick 2. Maybe something late coming back from GWS?

We don't have a f2.

 

[chopflop]

We don't have a f2.

Hmm makes it hard. The pick 19 in this year's draft is overs for sure. A late 20s pick this year and I think it's pretty spot on.

 

[Off Tap]

6 + 8 + 19 = 2 + 13 + 521 points (= pick 36). Too much in GWS's favour?

GWS currently have 2022 3rd round pick of 48 which is then only a 219 point surplus to GWS.

 

[eth-dog]

Pick 19 (read: 21) is pretty much the most overvalued commodity in the draft. Freo don't need pick 2. Take Amiss at Carlton's pick, and if Erasmus goes before their second it likely means someone like Hobbs has slid.

Pick 21 will go at a kings ransom from someone like Richmond or Geelong come draft night.

 

[WilloTree]

or Geelong come draft night.

hhahaaa That's a short conversation...

"Gday Belly, it's me again - sorry for being a prick about that whole pick 8 stuff, anyway - bygones?"

"Belly?... Belly? Peter? ... "

 

[fargothegreat]

I wouldn't be surprised to see GWS trade pick 2 to GC for pick 3 and a future second, and then on-trade pick 3 to Richmond for 7 and a future second.

The reason why I see them doing it this way is because GC is the only other club that is a strong risk of taking Andrew/Gibcus. If they give GC pick 2, then GC will take Callaghan, leaving Andrew/Gibcus to safely slide down to Richmond's pick 7.

• Works for GWS as they get the tall they want (not sure if they prefer Andrew or Gibcus)
• Works for GC as they get Callaghan
• Works for Richmond as they get a top Vic mid (Hobbs/Ward)

A second more risky option for GWS is to trade pick 2 to Richmond for 7 and 15 and hope that GC take Hobbs or their second choice of Andrew/Gibcus.

 

[Giant Strides]

I wouldn't be surprised to see GWS trade pick 2 to GC for pick 3 and a future second, and then on-trade pick 3 to Richmond for 7 and a future second.

The reason why I see them doing it this way is because GC is the only other club that is a strong risk of taking Andrew/Gibcus. If they give GC pick 2, then GC will take Callaghan, leaving Andrew/Gibcus to safely slide down to Richmond's pick 7.

• Works for GWS as they get the tall they want (not sure if they prefer Andrew or Gibcus)
• Works for GC as they get Callaghan
• Works for Richmond as they get a top Vic mid (Hobbs/Ward)

I think that is a reasonable observation. I have thought similarly - an initial swap to 3 for a small premium, then something else. Might not be Richmond, though. Hawks or Freo might come into play as an exchange of picks for #3 would be cheaper than for #2. And if it is Richmond, it might not be as cheap as a future 2nd - you are still jumping above teams likely to choose Ward and Hobbs.

 

[fargothegreat]

I think that is a reasonable observation. I have thought similarly - an initial swap to 3 for a small premium, then something else. Might not be Richmond, though. Hawks or Freo might come into play as an exchange of picks for #3 would be cheaper than for #2. And if it is Richmond, it might not be as cheap as a future 2nd - you are still jumping above teams likely to choose Ward and Hobbs.

I think once Callaghan is off the board the motivation to move up drops away for Hawthorn and Freo. They're not going to miss out on that next tier of midfield talent at their picks (Hobbs/Ward/Rachelle), which is a real risk for us at pick 7 (9).

 

[theGav56]

GCSs would be mad to take a project ruck requiring several years development at an early pick.

 

[Giant Strides]

I think once Callaghan is off the board the motivation to move up drops away for Hawthorn and Freo. They're not going to miss out on that next tier of midfield talent at their picks (Hobbs/Ward/Rachelle), which is a real risk for us at pick 7 (9).

I agree somewhat, but not totally. Assume Suns take Callaghan at #2 if they trade up, and Giants at #3 take either Andrew or Gibcus; that still leaves Adelaide, Hawks, Freo & Tigers in that order. Ward, Hobbs, Erasmus the prime mids. I don't personally rate Rachele in that tier, but some do. So every club wins a prize. The main point would be that any club that has a preference of which of those guys they prefer, will get closer to their preference with an earlier pick. If you don't care which of those you get, then I agree there's no motivation to move up. If you do, then Hawks or Freo jumping ahead still makes sense.

And the other aspect - clubs leaving the way clear for Richmond to do that trade shuffles Freo into last spot on the selection rung, and Hawks second last. So while Adelaide probably don't care as they only drop from first to second choice, the other two clubs might try to do a deal just to preserve their own higher selection out of those 4. They might not pay as much of a premium, but they might still wish to do it.

I'm not saying any club will do this; there are certainly other perspectives.

 

[RobJD]

....Errr how do you think you're gonna do that without future trading involved...?

You have Picks 9, 62 and 66 as it stands. After bids, 62 and 66 should come into around 55 and 59... that's 365 points...

If Owens goes at the 27 I have him at (he could go as early as 22 if bid on outside the first round but his range has been between 20-30 in most phantoms so mine is the median), then you require 703 points. You get a 20% discount, which makes it roughly around 560 points.. you're still nearly 200 points in deficit, and you'll have no picks left for Windhager, even if he gets bid on at Pick 60 (that's another 150 points of deficit, at the least) - this amount of deficit also gets substantially higher if Owens gets bid on in the early 20's, or Windhager goes in the late 30's-40's as projected.

One way or another, you'd have to trade in a future - unless you're prepared to go into deficit and affect your 1st round pick next year - which could drop you by 1 or 2 picks - which is definitely not worth it IMO.

Genuinely curious how you think you'll manage this...

I thought the deficit went against the round that the pick was made. If Owens goes in R2, then the deficit would be to the Saints FR2

 

[RobJD]

We also have 67 which you left out. So that would be very close to enough points by the time they rise.

If we are short it's our 2nd round that goes into deficit next year, not our first.

If Windhager is bidded on after pick 40 we can just use the next pick to take him, which would be 85.

For Pick 40 you'll need points (not many) -so that would carry to F3

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Pick 19 (read: 21) is pretty much the most overvalued commodity in the draft. Freo don't need pick 2. Take Amiss at Carlton's pick, and if Erasmus goes before their second it likely means someone like Hobbs has slid.

Pick 21 will go at a kings ransom from someone like Richmond or Geelong come draft night.

It will go to someone for a kings ransom but i doubt that will be us.

 

[briztoon]

I thought the deficit went against the round that the pick was made. If Owens goes in R2, then the deficit would be to the Saints FR2

This is correct.

 

[pK75]

How about I play mediator.

Is this closer

2 + 13

6 + 8 + F2 (mid 20s)

Freo really paying the premium here to get pick 2. Maybe something late coming back from GWS?

If we are going via the points method then we have to factor in the Daicos and Darcy bids, so the equation is more like:
8,10,55 = 1551+1395+207 = 3153
4,15 = 2034+1112 = 3146
Freo’s pick 61 moves up to around pick 55 while all the other picks move down 2 spots. I only think GWS go for this if they want the additional 207 points pick 55 brings in to help match a bid for Fahey.

 

[theiaofseed]

From an Adelaide perspective, I don't see doing that trade of 4, 2022/3 for 7, 26. I can only see us trading 4 if we get 7 and 15 (maybe with 33 or a future pick coming back).

I also don't see us taking Rachele, we'd be after a mid like Goater, NWM at that pick IMO.

No way Richmond would take Roberts ahead of Goater either.

Could you see Adelaide trading Pick 4 for Hawthorns Future First and Pick 21, early picks next year could be very handy for Adelaide.

 

[Thetrader15]

Could you see Adelaide trading Pick 4 for Hawthorns Future First and Pick 21, early picks next year could be very handy for Adelaide.

I sure hope not!

We need picks this year, not pushing them out until next year.

Rumoured to be after a couple of SA lads from GC next year, if we 2 x 2022/1 picks, then they would both be requested for these 2 kids.

I'd prefer to see us trade:

4, 2022/1, 2022/2 -> GWS for 2, 13, 2022/1 so we can secure Callaghan and Goater, then use GWS 2022/1 for Luko.

 

[eth-dog]

I sure hope not!

We need picks this year, not pushing them out until next year.

Rumoured to be after a couple of SA lads from GC next year, if we 2 x 2022/1 picks, then they would both be requested for these 2 kids.

I'd prefer to see us trade:

4, 2022/1, 2022/2 -> GWS for 2, 13, 2022/1 so we can secure Callaghan and Goater, then use GWS 2022/1 for Luko.

I think you'd find Goater very unlikely to last past Essendon's pick

 

[theiaofseed]

I sure hope not!

We need picks this year, not pushing them out until next year.

Rumoured to be after a couple of SA lads from GC next year, if we 2 x 2022/1 picks, then they would both be requested for these 2 kids.

I'd prefer to see us trade:

4, 2022/1, 2022/2 -> GWS for 2, 13, 2022/1 so we can secure Callaghan and Goater, then use GWS 2022/1 for Luko.

GWS would never do that trade, 4+Future First for 2 and 13 would be the deal and the Suns would never accept just GWS first for Lukosius and that's without what Rankine would cost, Adelaide lose all chance at landing Lemmey.

Future First 6* + 21 for 4 seems a pretty good trade when you need picks next year.

 

[GWS Goose]

I sure hope not!

We need picks this year, not pushing them out until next year.

Rumoured to be after a couple of SA lads from GC next year, if we 2 x 2022/1 picks, then they would both be requested for these 2 kids.

I'd prefer to see us trade:

4, 2022/1, 2022/2 -> GWS for 2, 13, 2022/1 so we can secure Callaghan and Goater, then use GWS 2022/1 for Luko.

Im sure you'd prefer that deal, it is very optimistic.
You want 3 first rounders in exchange for 2 first rounders in a trade that includes you trading up.