Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[Wrenny]

Not sure that trade works for either team and it undervalues pick 2 considerably

I'm not claiming to be an expert!

 

[Wrenny]

Crows won't pick Hobbs, inside midfielder is the one position they don't need, mids and small fwd both with speed and kicking skills with scoreboard impact are the big focus this year and next

So probably Rachele then?

 

[Orange crush]

I'm not claiming to be an expert!

All good, mate, was critiquing the trade not the messenger

 

[Harry O]

Everyone wants to get Pick 2 off GWS so they can take him then. And I would think the only reason GWS dont take him at 2 (if they keep the pick) is if he does a Wingard and tells them he will sit out a year rather than move to Sydney.

From what I know of Finn, that would be very unlikely he would do that

 

[theGav56]

Interesting numbers, not sure why you chose 190cm as the arbitrary cut off though, plenty of mids are in the 190-192cm bracket these days, if you are looking for KPP depth, then 193+cm is probably a better measure and given talls take longer to develop I’d argue you should increase the age to 24. No idea what these parameters do for the other clubs, however Freo jump up from 2 to 6, with the extra 4 players being both rucks (Darcy and Meek) and two Backs (Cox and Logue) who are all 23. With the initial 2 being a forward (Treacy) and another back (Chapman).

With 3 KPB, 2 Rucks, and a KPF all under 24, the only thing we need is another Forward and a Forward/Ruck to provide depth/succession for Tabs and Lobb.
We will get Benning as the F/R via a bid match or through the rookie draft. So really only need a KPF from the open draft.

It would be interesting to narrow it a more KPP/ruck specific criteria. certainly indicates that some clubs are less likely to be looking for them in this draft.

 

[Crow_68]

So probably Rachele then?

I get this funny feeling we will take Matthew Johnson

 

[briztoon]

I get this funny feeling we will take Matthew Johnson

More likely Erasmus.

 

[Significant]

It's bloody tough to guess with pick swaps but..

1. North Melbourne - Horne Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy
4. Hawthorn - Callaghan (Trade up with GWS)
5. Gold Coast Suns - Gibcus
6. Adelaide - Erasmus
7. GWS Giants - Andrew (Trade down with Hawthorn)
8. Fremantle - Rachele
9. Richmond - Hobbs
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Ward
12. West Coast Eagles - Johnson
13. Essendon - Goater
14. Port Adelaide - Wanganeen-Milera
15. GWS Giants - Sonsie
16. Brisbane Lions - Sinn
17. Richmond - Van Rooyen
18. Sydney Swans - Knevitt
19. Melbourne - Chesser
20. Brisbane Lions - Butler

Those last few are difficult to pick, makes me really worried about Mitch Owens

 

[briztoon]

It's bloody tough to guess with pick swaps but..

1. North Melbourne - Horne Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy
4. Hawthorn - Callaghan (Trade up with GWS)
5. Gold Coast Suns - Gibcus
6. Adelaide - Erasmus
7. GWS Giants - Andrew (Trade down with Hawthorn)
8. Fremantle - Rachele
9. Richmond - Hobbs
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Ward
12. West Coast Eagles - Johnson
13. Essendon - Goater
14. Port Adelaide - Wanganeen-Milera
15. GWS Giants - Sonsie
16. Brisbane Lions - Sinn
17. Richmond - Van Rooyen
18. Sydney Swans - Knevitt
19. Melbourne - Chesser
20. Brisbane Lions - Butler

Those last few are difficult to pick, makes me really worried about Mitch Owens

I doubt Brisbane look at Butler. More likely Brown or Wilmot, or Owens. Or we trade back in to the early second round.

 

[Mutineer]

I doubt Brisbane look at Butler. More likely Brown or Wilmot, or Owens. Or we trade back in to the early second round.

Vic Country (Rebels) vs Vic Metro.....Hmmmm I'd be very surprised if you're mob is not very interested in Sam with his athleticism, speed and skill set.

 

[blueiris]

Vic Country (Rebels) vs Vic Metro.....Hmmmm I'd be very surprised if you're mob is not very interested in Sam with his athleticism, speed and skill set.

In the phantom above we already draft Josh Sinn for that we have Sharp Coleman and Answorth who all bring that as well

 

[Mutineer]

In the phantom above we already draft Josh Sinn for that we have Sharp Coleman and Answorth who all bring that as well

I take it from that you've not seen Sam Butler play because he plays nothing like Harry Sharp who I've also seen plenty of or Answerth for that matter.

How old is Dayne Zorko because if I was comparing Sam Butler with anyone on the Lions list Zorko would be the closest IMO, albeit taller.

 

[Jen2310]

Speaking of Butler --

 

[Thetrader15]

It's bloody tough to guess with pick swaps but..

1. North Melbourne - Horne Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy
4. Hawthorn - Callaghan (Trade up with GWS)
5. Gold Coast Suns - Gibcus
6. Adelaide - Erasmus
7. GWS Giants - Andrew (Trade down with Hawthorn)
8. Fremantle - Rachele
9. Richmond - Hobbs
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Ward
12. West Coast Eagles - Johnson
13. Essendon - Goater
14. Port Adelaide - Wanganeen-Milera
15. GWS Giants - Sonsie
16. Brisbane Lions - Sinn
17. Richmond - Van Rooyen
18. Sydney Swans - Knevitt
19. Melbourne - Chesser
20. Brisbane Lions - Butler

Those last few are difficult to pick, makes me really worried about Mitch Owens

I'd say the crows will offer more than Hawks can to get pick 2.

 

[briztoon]

I take it from that you've not seen Sam Butler play because he plays nothing like Harry Sharp who I've also seen plenty of or Answerth for that matter.

How old is Dayne Zorko because if I was comparing Sam Butler with anyone on the Lions list Zorko would be the closest IMO, albeit taller.

It’s more that we’re pretty stacked for small and half forwards.

Charlie Cameron, McCarthy, Rayner, Bailey, Zorko, Cockatoo, Ah Chee, Coleman x2.

Fair chance Ashcroft starts his career in the senior team up there as well. Maybe Fletcher as well. And we tend to play Tom Berry as a defensive forward, when he gets a run in the senior team.

 

[blueiris]

I take it from that you've not seen Sam Butler play because he plays nothing like Harry Sharp who I've also seen plenty of or Answerth for that matter.

How old is Dayne Zorko because if I was comparing Sam Butler with anyone on the Lions list Zorko would be the closest IMO, albeit taller.

Zac Bailey is our Zorko replacement plus we’re pretty set for small forwards

 

[Mutineer]

It’s more that we’re pretty stacked for small and half forwards.

Charlie Cameron, McCarthy, Rayner, Bailey, Zorko, Cockatoo, Ah Chee, Coleman x2.

Fair chance Ashcroft starts his career in the senior team up there as well. Maybe Fletcher as well. And we tend to play Tom Berry as a defensive forward, when he gets a run in the senior team.

Zorko the midfielder/forward is the comparison, don't be pigeonholing Sam Butler purely as a small forward, for starters he's 184cm already and I'll be most surprised if he's not spending time on the ball within a year or two whoever drafts him. Great blend of speed, acceleration, agility and offensive/defensive traits to his total package. IMO Tom Berry's talents are being under utilised by the Lions playing him solely in that role.

 

[briztoon]

Zorko the midfielder/forward is the comparison, don't be pigeonholing Sam Butler purely as a small forward, for starters he's 184cm already and I'll be most surprised if he's not spending time on the ball within a year or two whoever drafts him. Great blend of speed, acceleration, agility and offensive/defensive traits to his total package. IMO Tom Berry's talents are being under utilised by the Lions playing him solely in that role.

I agree.

And I said the same thing about Ben Keays before him.

 

[Mutineer]

I agree.

And I said the same thing about Ben Keays before him.

Well maybe we offer Tommy more opportunities when his contract is up...we need mids with breakaway speed capable of heavy defensive pressure.

 

[Significant]

Everyone commenting on my prediction with Brisbane taking Butler. My justification for this, and Sinn, is that all I have heard from Brisbane supporters is that they need speed and skill. Both players provide that.

I'd say the crows will offer more than Hawks can to get pick 2.

Probably. If this was the case, I wouldn't be surprised to see GWS trade further back with Hawthorn directly after that as well. Andrew is their man, and they can't go beyond Freos picks.

 

[TylerDurden]

I'd say the crows will offer more than Hawks can to get pick 2.

What? You're not trading a future first for a pick swap surely?

 

[Thetrader15]

What? You're not trading a future first for a pick swap surely?

Might be 4, 2022/1 for 2, 13.

 

[TylerDurden]

Might be 4, 2022/1 for 2, 13.

Yeah, don't think we'd do that.

 

[pK75]

Might be 4, 2022/1 for 2, 13.

So what do GWS do for their 3rd pick this year, after Fahey bid they’ll be a the back of the draft with dogs and pies.

 

[Harry O]

So what do GWS do for their 3rd pick this year, after Fahey bid they’ll be a the back of the draft with dogs and pies.

Pies won’t be at the back of the draft. I think they will manipulate a few selections in the 25-45 range