Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[briztoon]

I don't think we'll end up trading any of our picks unless somebody we love slides on draft night.

Then we'll come in hot at Brisbane or Richmond and offer 21 and 24 for one of their selections in the teens.

For example let's say we select Josh Ward but rate one of Rachelle, Hobbs, Erasmus or Andrew equally as high. If it gets to pick 14 and any of those boys are still on the board i'd say we'll look to move up.

If players seem to go where expected I think we'll just take our chances with the 3 selections inside 25.

I don’t see any value in trading pick 14.

I would be taking best available outside mid/defender left on board at that selection. One of Sinn, Chesser or Goater.

I could see us trading our second selection back a few spots if we target a KPP such as Bazzo in the mid 20’s, and by moving back we either are able to move 41 forward, or add a projected late future second round pick or early third round pick.

 

[Mikevk123]

Surely WB won’t have 43 in this scenario

To much maths for my liking

 

[Blackhawk42]

I don’t see any value in trading pick 14.

I would be taking best available outside mid/defender left on board at that selection. One of Sinn, Chesser or Goater.

I could see us trading our second selection back a few spots if we target a KPP such as Bazzo in the mid 20’s, and by moving back we either are able to move 41 forward, or add a projected late future second round pick or early third round pick.

Oh yeah, I wouldn't expect you guys to say yes. I just think we'd be jumping in to try and broker a pick swap.

About 97% certain we'll be using the current picks we have on the night (with sliding for bid matches of course).

 

[Gratees]

1. North Melbourne- Jason Horne-Francis
2. Western Bulldogs- Sam Darcy
3. Collingwood- Nick Daicos
4. Josh Rachele- GWS
5. Mac Andrew- Gold Coast
6. Finn Callaghan- Adelaide
7. Josh Ward- Hawthorn
8. Neil Erasmus- Fremantle
9. Ben Hobbs- Richmond
10. Jye Amiss- Fremantle
11. Josh Gibcus- St Kilda
12. Matthew Johnson- West Coast
13. Josh Goater- Essendon
14. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Port Adelaide
15. Josh Sinn- GWS
16. Jacob Van Rooyen- Brisbane
17. Tyler Sonsie- Richmond
18. Arlo Draper- Sydney
19. Zac Taylor- Melbourne
20. Campbell Chesser- Brisbane
21. Jack Williams- Fremantle
22. Darcy Wilmot- North Melbourne
23. Sam Butler- Hawthorn
24. Matthew Roberts- Geelong
25. Blake Howles- Hawthorn
26. Jesse Motlop- Carlton
27. Marcus Windhager- St Kilda
28. Rhett Bazzo- Richmond
29. Judson Clark- Richmond
30- Connor McDonald- Richmond
31- Mitchito Owens- St Kilda
32- Angus Sheldrick- West Coast
33- Mitch Knevitt- Geelong
34- Ned Long-Sydney
35- Tom Brown - Geelong
36- Cooper Murley- Adelaide
37- Toby Conway- Geelong
38- Corey Warner- West Coast
39- Kai Lohmann- Melbourne
40- Leek Alleer- Sydney
41- Sam Banks- Brisbane
42- Charlie Dean- North Melbourne
43- Paul Curtis- Western Bulldogs
44- Lachlan Rankin-North Melbourne
45- Hugh Jackson-Collingwood
46- Brady Hough- Melbourne
47- Charlie Molan- Geelong
48- Jake Soligo- Essendon
49- James Tunstill- Western Bulldogs
50- Lukas Cooke- Collingwood
51- Hugo Stagg- Essendon
52- Tyreece Leui- Melbourne
53- Kade Dittmar- Collingwood

I do like the amount of phantom drafts that have us getting Hobbs, Though it may be setting me up for disappointment if we don't end up getting him

 

[theGav56]

I do like the amount of phantom drafts that have us getting Hobbs, Though it may be setting me up for disappointment if we don't end up getting him

There is certainly a bit of a formula now. Cut and paste a draft, change who takes Gibcus/Andrew, think about where Ward/Hobbs goes. Click to post.

 

[briztoon]

There is certainly a bit of a formula now. Cut and paste a draft, change who takes Gibcus/Andrew, think about where Ward/Hobbs goes. Click to post.

I believe this largely because a lot of players just make sense at certain clubs. The wild cards are, GWS’s two picks, Adelaide and Port.

I believe those teams will have the greatest influence on the first round.

Adelaide really want a Callaghan type mid, or Josh Goater type mid if he could kick. Bust if they don’t trade up, who do they go for?

Port ideally need to be drafting an inside mid. But there’s a fair chance the top ones are all off the board at their pick. Maybe Goater gets through to them. Or do they go another flanker or wing, even though they are loaded with young outside players.

 

[eth-dog]

I believe this largely because a lot of players just make sense at certain clubs. The wild cards are, GWS’s two picks, Adelaide and Port.

I believe those teams will have the greatest influence on the first round.

Adelaide really want a Callaghan type mid, or Josh Goater type mid if he could kick. Bust if they don’t trade up, who do they go for?

Port ideally need to be drafting an inside mid. But there’s a fair chance the top ones are all off the board at their pick. Maybe Goater gets through to them. Or do they go another flanker or wing, even though they are loaded with young outside players.

I really really doubt that. He's a quintessential Essendon pick.

 

[briztoon]

I really really doubt that. He's a quintessential Essendon pick.

I agree completely. I do have four players in mind for Essendon. Goater appears to be the only one with an iffy kick. But he’s the tall inside mid Essendon appear to be missing.

 

[pK75]

There is certainly a bit of a formula now. Cut and paste a draft, change who takes Gibcus/Andrew, think about where Ward/Hobbs goes. Click to post.

There is, and personally I don’t like seeing Erasmus & Amiss continually linked to Freo. I don’t think they meet our requirements, we have two leading forwards in Treacy & Sturt (if we could get him on the park) we need a contested marking forward to replace Tabs when he’s injured. To me that is JVR, he can also roost it from outside 50 (something I haven’t seen Amiss do) and is a great tackler. This is why I think we’d entertain trading down the order slightly if the opportunity came and it gave us another pick in the teens or early 20’s. Wouldn’t want to go past 14 though as I think the Lions are a real chance to take JVR with 14(16).

 

[briztoon]

There is, and personally I don’t like seeing Erasmus & Amiss continually linked to Freo. I don’t think they meet our requirements, we have two leading forwards in Treacy & Sturt (if we could get him on the park) we need a contested marking forward to replace Tabs when he’s injured. To me that is JVR, he can also roost it from outside 50 (something I haven’t seen Amiss do) and is a great tackler. This is why I think we’d entertain trading down the order slightly if the opportunity came and it gave us another pick in the teens or early 20’s. Wouldn’t want to go past 14 though as I think the Lions are a real chance to take JVR with 14(16).

I really hope we don’t.

 

[Swiggy]

There is, and personally I don’t like seeing Erasmus & Amiss continually linked to Freo. I don’t think they meet our requirements, we have two leading forwards in Treacy & Sturt (if we could get him on the park) we need a contested marking forward to replace Tabs when he’s injured. To me that is JVR, he can also roost it from outside 50 (something I haven’t seen Amiss do) and is a great tackler. This is why I think we’d entertain trading down the order slightly if the opportunity came and it gave us another pick in the teens or early 20’s. Wouldn’t want to go past 14 though as I think the Lions are a real chance to take JVR with 14(16).

JVR isn’t a taberner replacement. He’s not big enough to play the way he does at colts level. I think Erasmus fits freo but could be gone. As for amiss so much upside as he has hardly trained with his colts team & kicked 50 odd goals. I think Jeremy Cameron when he plays. Not biggest key forward. But very quick

 

[joydivision22]

1. North Melbourne - JHF
2. Collingwood - Daicos
3. Western - Darcy
4. GWS Giants - Andrew
5. Gold Coast Suns - Gibcus
6. Adelaide - Callaghan
7. Hawthorn - Ward
8. Fremantle - Hobbs
9. Richmond - Amiss
10. Fremantle - Erasmus
11. St Kilda - Johnson
12. West Coast Eagles - Goater
13. Essendon - Sinn
14. Port Adelaide - NWMNot found
    Player not found

 

[Significant]

1. North Melbourne - JHF
2. Collingwood - Daicos
3. Western - Darcy
4. GWS Giants - Andrew
5. Gold Coast Suns - Gibcus
6. Adelaide - Callaghan
7. Hawthorn - Ward
8. Fremantle - Hobbs
9. Richmond - Amiss
10. Fremantle - Erasmus
11. St Kilda - Johnson
12. West Coast Eagles - Goater
13. Essendon - Sinn
14. Port Adelaide - NWM

Jeez, those last 7ish picks all would prefer the bloke who got picked by the team directly before them! (IMO)

 

[WeedsMullet84]

We don't?

Apart from Jordan Butts we have the unproven at AFL level Fischer McAsey neither of whom are overly athletic or agile, we have Billy Frampton a failed forward now being tested down back and showing some promise in that role at SANFL level. At this point in time the rookie listed Nick Murray looks the best of a pretty average lot.

On paper that looks pretty limited unless McAsey and Borlase come on in leaps and bounds and soon.

IMO we'll know a bit more about where they see McAsey's future after they get a proper pre-season into him. Scott Burns just recently confirmed his last pre-season was interrupted (which we all guessed), no doubt due to his family issues, and this was fairly evident in him collapsing at the end of his 5KM time trail. I don't think his move forward in the SANFL towards the back half of the season had much to do with where they're going to develop him as much as it was just a bit of a circuit-breaker. Plenty of KPD's have spent a bit of time forward to learn their craft.

We may have a differing opinion on where Frampton shows promise. Again I agree with Burns in that i'm looking forward to seeing Billy learn a bit of defensive craft as i think he's really only got to learn where to position himself in the contest. I think he will succeed as a KPD at AFL level, certainly not at the Darcy Moore KPF-KPD switch type levels, but enough to push for starting spots.

Worrell is developing nicely and can play tall/small, but again i know you don't recognise him as a proper KPD which i believe is incorrect

James Borlase is not a KPD.

Frampton - 200cm - Developing after positional switch
Butts - 198cm
McAsey - 197cm - Developing (2019 Draft)
Murray - 195cm - Developing (2021 SSP Rookie)
Worrell - 195cm - Developing (2019 Draft)

We're absolutely flush for KPD's, we all know KPP's take time to develop, even more so with Covid interrupting the progress of many players, in particular during 2020.

 

[bird_man]

Is there any mail around on who the Giants might take with their first pick?

It's the most intriguing pick of the draft.

 

[bird_man]

IMO we'll know a bit more about where they see McAsey's future after they get a proper pre-season into him. Scott Burns just recently confirmed his last pre-season was interrupted (which we all guessed), no doubt due to his family issues, and this was fairly evident in him collapsing at the end of his 5KM time trail. I don't think his move forward in the SANFL towards the back half of the season had much to do with where they're going to develop him as much as it was just a bit of a circuit-breaker. Plenty of KPD's have spent a bit of time forward to learn their craft.

We may have a differing opinion on where Frampton shows promise. Again I agree with Burns in that i'm looking forward to seeing Billy learn a bit of defensive craft as i think he's really only got to learn where to position himself in the contest. I think he will succeed as a KPD at AFL level, certainly not at the Darcy Moore KPF-KPD switch type levels, but enough to push for starting spots.

Worrell is developing nicely and can play tall/small, but again i know you don't recognise him as a proper KPD which i believe is incorrect

James Borlase is not a KPD.

Frampton - 200cm - Developing after positional switch
Butts - 198cm
McAsey - 197cm - Developing (2019 Draft)
Murray - 195cm - Developing (2021 SSP Rookie)
Worrell - 195cm - Developing (2019 Draft)

We're absolutely flush for KPD's, we all know KPP's take time to develop, even more so with Covid interrupting the progress of many players, in particular during 2020.

A fair chunk of players have disrupted pre seasons. I'm not sure he could use that as an excuse. He played every SANFL game.

He's a bit of a worry right now. Played the whole SANFL season and from all reports was just average at best.

The move forward was probably just for him to loosen up and try and find the footy a bit.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

A fair chunk of players have disrupted pre seasons. I'm not sure he could use that as an excuse. He played every SANFL game.

He's a bit of a worry right now. Played the whole SANFL season and from all reports was just average at best.

The move forward was probably just for him to loosen up and try and find the footy a bit.

Yeah i'm not sure every young draftees father almost dies drowning in the family pool just before pre season gets underway, not all 'interruptions' are equal.

By all reports he's hitting the gym and getting a solid block of training in before pre-season even starts, so i'll reserve my judgement end of next year for what will realistically be a 2nd year KPD (2020 was a development write-off, IMO) in terms of whether he's a 'worry' or not.

 

[bird_man]

Yeah i'm not sure every young draftees father almost dies drowning in the family pool just before pre season gets underway, not all 'interruptions' are equal.

By all reports he's hitting the gym and getting a solid block of training in before pre-season even starts, so i'll reserve my judgement end of next year for what will realistically be a 2nd year KPD (2020 was a development write-off, IMO) in terms of whether he's a 'worry' or not.

No I'm sure they don't. I'm sure it would have shaken him up at the time but I doubt you'd be using that as an excuse for an average year in the SANFL.

 

[David C]

1. North Melbourne - JHF
2. Collingwood - Daicos
3. Western - Darcy
4. GWS Giants - Andrew
5. Gold Coast Suns - Gibcus
6. Adelaide - Callaghan
7. Hawthorn - Ward
8. Fremantle - Hobbs
9. Richmond - Amiss
10. Fremantle - Erasmus
11. St Kilda - Johnson
12. West Coast Eagles - Goater
13. Essendon - Sinn
14. Port Adelaide - NWM

GWS will take Callaghan or trade pick 2 to somebody who does. He won't get past GC if they don't.

 

[Crow till I die]

GWS will take Callaghan or trade pick 2 to somebody who does. He won't get past GC if they don't.

It would be a massive surprise if Gibcus is on the board at GC pick 3 they don't take him. They may field offers for the pick to drop a spot or 2 but Gibcus is the ideal player for them and sits in the right area talent wise for it not to be a reach. They are already flush for top young mids but could really do with a Jake lever style top end young defender to add to what they have.

GWS may take Mac Andrew - there has been a lot of speculation there but who knows. Would they take Callaghan? maybe but they are also flush with good mids so Callaghan might have to kick his heels in the 2's developing. So its not unthinkable he is there at the crows pick - but I would think it more likely that a trade is done to get GC pick or maybe even GWS' pick by a club that really wants Callaghan than either GWS or GC take him

 

[Significant]

A fair chunk of players have disrupted pre seasons. I'm not sure he could use that as an excuse. He played every SANFL game.

He's a bit of a worry right now. Played the whole SANFL season and from all reports was just average at best.

The move forward was probably just for him to loosen up and try and find the footy a bit.

Saints were into him significantly before he re-signed.

 

[Significant]

It would be a massive surprise if Gibcus is on the board at GC pick 3 they don't take him. They may field offers for the pick to drop a spot or 2 but Gibcus is the ideal player for them and sits in the right area talent wise for it not to be a reach. They are already flush for top young mids but could really do with a Jake lever style top end young defender to add to what they have.

GWS may take Mac Andrew - there has been a lot of speculation there but who knows. Would they take Callaghan? maybe but they are also flush with good mids so Callaghan might have to kick his heels in the 2's developing. So its not unthinkable he is there at the crows pick - but I would think it more likely that a trade is done to get GC pick or maybe even GWS' pick by a club that really wants Callaghan than either GWS or GC take him

100% reckon they trade the pick to whichever of Adelaide or Hawthorn want to pay up to get Callaghan.
GWS won't drop back further than Fremantle who are also massively into Andrew.
Don't think Gibcus is a certainty to go to Suns - think he might be the one to fall in the rankings.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

No I'm sure they don't. I'm sure it would have shaken him up at the time but I doubt you'd be using that as an excuse for an average year in the SANFL.

Well unless you've had family tragedy/incident in your life at a point in time when you're trying to focus on building yourself up then you wouldn't really know.

How callous of you to assume, as a young man away from his family, it'd merely 'shaken him up', hope nothing like that happens to a loved one of yours for you to simply brush it off and get back to work!

2nd year KPD coming off Covid year 2020, and a limited pre-season coming into 2021. I'll save my hot-takes for end of the next season.

 

[joydivision22]

Jeez, those last 7ish picks all would prefer the bloke who got picked by the team directly before them! (IMO)

Yeah I feel freo will start that chain reaction by taking Hobbs before Richmond can. I’m not convinced they’re that keen on Amiss who is pretty similar to Treacy. If they walked away with Hobbs and Erasmus they would be thrilled with that midfield group. Van Rooyan is a decent chance to get to them at 21 who they rate highly. Richmond pissed they missed Hobbs take Amiss thinking freo want him at the next pick. Freo get Erasmus. Unfortunately doesn’t leave many mids left for the poor old saints so they go for best available in Johnson.

 

[richoatthedisco]

I don’t see any value in trading pick 14.

I would be taking best available outside mid/defender left on board at that selection. One of Sinn, Chesser or Goater.

I could see us trading our second selection back a few spots if we target a KPP such as Bazzo in the mid 20’s, and by moving back we either are able to move 41 forward, or add a projected late future second round pick or early third round pick.

18 and 41 for 28 and 29?